Until a time comes when I can get all my comms thru a single point of connection, for $40 a month or less, with broadband speed (not rip-off ADSL we have to suffer with) on both up and down speeds, my phone will be used for nothing but texts and - shock, horror - phone calls... Convergence might be a nice buzz word, but it's years away from affordable / real-world usability for us in the Antipodes. 
... or Gartner have to say. They are OFTEN wrong!
That said, if the netbook market does "fade away" it will be due to pricing pressure from full-sized notebooks.
When the $299-$349 netbook was introduced, the typical single-core notebook was over $600. Well, no more!
Today you can easily find full-sized dual-core notebooks with 2GB-3GB of RAM and 160GB HDD running Windows 7 and selling for $449-$499 and the prices keep dropping. As the incremental price drops the decision to buy a netbook instead of a notebook will increasingly have to be based on factors other than price.
For the road warrior, the notebook will likely win out but K-12 needs are different. If K-12 can generate the volumes necessary to justify continued production of small-screens and keyboards, then we should expect the netbook to survive.
However, in this economy, the possibility that K-12 demand will never materialize is very real.
If K-12 cannot generate the demand for compact screens and keyboards - well-suited for small hands - the availability of larger screens and dual-core power for a small up-tick in price, will allow the notebook to displace the netbook in short order.
Netbooks have become a bastion of K-12 tech, enabling a whole lot of kids to cheaply get their hands on a computer that, not surprisingly, also happens to fit those little hands quite nicely. However, ZDNet’s Editor-in-Chief, Larry Dignan, reported on Gartner’s and IDC’s recent predictions that the netbook market would “grow…this year and then fade.” The question is, do we care?
The answer is “sort of.” Netbooks (or mini-notebooks, as the studies from the analyst groups call them) have always been about compromise. How do we fit tolerable computing power into a package that is incredibly light, ridiculously cheap, and relatively durable? We make the keyboard tiny, specs anemic, and sell them cheap enough that we don’t really care about the durability. These sorts of compromises don’t tend to matter much to little kids who just need to use basic software, navigate the web, or learn to type. They also don’t matter much to a college kid who just needs to take notes in class or work out on the Quad and leave his $3500 Alienware beast back in his dorm room.
Intel is in a relatively good position to understand the netbook market and continues to develop their Classmate PC (essentially a netbook), so the netbook can’t be dead, right? Well, yes and no. The so-called Clamshell Classmate (a ruggedized netbook with specialized software) is largely being targeted to developing countries where cost and durability trump virtually all other considerations. Their Convertible Classmate (which, for many kids, stays in tablet form much more than it stays in traditional netbook form) is the model of choice in developed countries. Intel representatives now often call this a “netvertible”, further distancing it from the netbook brand and nomenclature.
This isn’t something I find myself getting too fussed about, though. The durability of most netbooks is a real issue, as is their performance for students who are becoming increasingly adept at multitasking. If netbooks die, then tablets and smarter smartphones will be there to take their place.
I don’t need netbooks to make 1:1 work or provide students with easier access to the Internet. I need to revisit my policies on cell phones in schools, look at solutions that maximize their exposure and smart utilization of the web, and look at classroom technologies (whether Classmate netvertible or SMART board) that make instruction more effective.
Netbooks aren’t going away anytime soon. The netbook boom is just over. There are still lots of places where they are useful and I’m glad to see Classmate development continues, especially as the program moves beyond the ruggedized netbook approach. I still use my Lenovo S10 all the time and one S10 that apparently was sat on is acting as a very nice print server in a remote office (who needs a screen, right?). However, as netbooks lose their luster a bit, ask yourself this: What do you use more? Your netbook or your phone? I’ll bet you a frisbee-shaped netbook with a crushed LCD that you use your phone much more. Imagine what you’ll be able to do in a year with your phone, MID, or tablet and it gets pretty easy to not worry much about netbooks.
