Future of hard drives 'settled' until 2015

By | October 11, 2011, 4:24pm PDT

Summary: Hard disk drive makers plan to forge ahead with heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology, putting bit-patterned media on the back burner.

Credit: Seagate

Credit: Seagate

For years, hard disk makers argued over a defined road map that would provide the industry with a next gen standard because any further increases in data density would require huge investment.

One camp, led by Seagate, lobbied for heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR); others, led by Hitachi GST, called for a move to bit-patterned media.

EE Times reports that the two sides converged on HAMR as their next step.

“There’s a general consensus the huge shift beyond perpendicular is at least three years out, so mainstream [HAMR] products won’t ship until 2014 or 2015,” said Mark Geenen, president of IDEMA, the disk drive trade group and host of Diskcon, an annual industry event that will be held next week in Santa Clara, CA.

Today’s magnetic disk recording techniques (perpendicular) will hit a brick wall in a generation or two when areal density reaches 1-1.5 terabits per square inch. At this point, stored bits get too small to remain stable; a small amount of heat is all it takes to make nano-sized bits flip their magnetization direction.

HAMR technology uses a magnetic recording medium that is more stable at normal temperatures but needs to be heated before data can be written. The challenge is to heat a very small area quickly enough using the right recording materials that can also integrate laser diodes and recording heads. While difficult, sources say it’s easier than the leading alternative–patterning multiple terabits of data uniformly on a platter.

Proponents of bit-patterning have not yet demonstrated how it can be used to mass produce disks and add no more than two dollars to the cost of each disk.

Meanwhile, Japanese disk drive head supplier TDK has already built HAMR heads. According to reports, TDK could potentially manufacture a 2TB 2.5-inch disk drives with 1TB platters using this technology.

But until all the pieces are in place for HAMR, drive makers are expected to use shingle magnetic recording, a variant of perpendicular, to push areal density to or slightly beyond a terabit.

As for bit-patterning, the approach isn’t expected to take hold until HAMR reaches a limit, which could be  2020 or beyond when areal density is measured in multiple terabits, notes EE Times.

The Advanced Storage Technology Consortium (ASTCS) pools resources from 13-members including Hitachi GST, Marvell, and Seagate for R&D efforts that will help make the generational leap beyond perpendicular recording.

At Diskcon, leading researchers will share progress toward HAMR technology.

Sources: EE Times, Channel Register, IEE Spectrum

Related:

A ’stone-like’ optical disc that lasts for millennia
Drive giants plan next gen tech

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Christopher Jablonski is a freelance technology writer.

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Chris Jablonski

Christopher Jablonski has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Chris Jablonski

Christopher Jablonski is a freelance technology writer. Previously, he held research analyst positions in the IT industry and was the manager of marketing editorial at CBS Interactive. He's been contributing to ZDNet since 2003.

Christopher received a bachelor's degree in business administration from the University of Illinois at Urbana/Champaign. With over 12 years in IT, he's an expert on transformational technologies, particularly those influential in B2B.

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RE: Future of hard drives 'settled' until 2015
reginebautista 7th Nov
freepuzzlegameonline.com / full-house-design.com

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I expect SSD to evolve and the HD war will become moot.
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@MoeFugger There is still a huge cost difference of at least 50:1 between the technologies. It is not going to "improve" that much in the next couple of years. So you might still pay $2000 for a 2TB SSD drive, compared to $75 for a conventional drive. Any corporate IT head would have you escorted from the building if you suggested raising the prices of desktops and laptops to cover even a fraction of that cost.
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@terry flores
Not only that. If your ssd dies there not now way to do any form of data recovery as you can do with a standard Hard Drive
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Yep.
spdragoo@... 12th Oct
@terry flores

From microcenter.com:
-- Western Digital Scorpio Blue 250GB hard drive (SATA II/3.0Gbps, 2.5" form factor): original price $49.99, currently on sale $39.99
-- Samsung 470 Series MZ-5PA256 256GB SSD (SATA II/3.0Gbps, 2.5" form factor): original price $404.99, currently on sale $379.99

That's about a 10:1 price ratio between SSD & conventional HD for the same storage space. The largest they had was twice that (512GB) for over $800... or about the cost of a PC. And the only 1+TB size they had was a "hybrid": OCZ Tech's RevoDrive, apparently combines a 100GB SSD with a 1TB HD on a PCIe expansion card...if you're willing to pay $550 for it.
@spdragoo@...

Also from microcenter.com:
Hitachi Deskstar 5K3000 1.5TB SATA 6Gb/s 3.5" Desktop Internal Hard Drive - OEM: original price $79.99, currently on sale $49.99
since it's 6 times bigger than the MZ-5PA256 (1.5 / .256) and 7.6 times cheaper (380 / 50), that gives a ratio of 45.6:1. Which is close to Terry Flores' statement.

The 250GB HDD you chose is pricey simply because it's antiquated.

On the other hand, the HD I choose is (of course) dirt cheap.
In other words, don't compare Apple's to x286's. If you want a fair comparison, choose current topmodels for both sides. That way, even if they don't have the same GB's, they're both at the leading edge of their field.
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@Xian-Pu

True, I was mainly looking for a comparison that would be more apple-to-apple (i.e. similar size hard drive). At this point, I wouldn't pick anything smaller than 500GB for a hard drive for my own needs.. and then only if 1) they were sold out of all larger drives, and 2) I absolutely had to replace a failed hard drive *now*.
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freepuzzlegameonline.com / full-house-design.com

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How about bring down the price of SLC SSDs?

Then this HD "war" up above will be moot.
More and more SSDs will be purchased, but until the price differential is smaller, Hard Disks will be around.
I realize that enterprise drives are always looking to store more data. But for the average user--even the average business user running a desktop--it's probably time to start realizing that hard disks already have much more storage capacity than the average user really has need for. It's like spreadsheet programs that can handle a million records. How many users really need that kind of technology?
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RE: Future of hard drives 'settled' until 2015
Timothy_Bomgardner@... 12th Oct
@Rick_R: "640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates, 1981. (Although Gates now denies making that statement.)
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@Timothy_Bomgardner@... "640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates, 1981. (Although Gates now denies making that statement.)

He denies saying it because he didn't say it. I looked it up, I forget what it was that he said but it wasn't that. Bill Gates didn't become that rich by being stupid enough to say that. 640K also was a reference to RAM or volatile memory not storage. And he already new that it wouldn't be enough for much longer, which I think was pretty much what he was saying.
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@Rick_R
I'm strictly a home user. I have four 1-terabyte drives in use. (One is external and used primarily for backups.)

Between the three internal drives, i have just shy of a terabyte free space (One of them has 30 gig devoted to an Xubuntu installation).

I confidently expect to fill at least one of the three within six months or less.
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Need More Space
Hal_9001 13th Oct
@Rick_R ,
Digital devices like HiDef cameras and camcorders are becoming ubiqutous(if not already). The "average" user will need more disk space to process the media locally, then push to social media clouds like youtube, facebook, ... etc.
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I see RAIDed SSD's in the future. You could put 4 SSD chips on a 2.5" SATA drive carrier for something like a micro RAID 10 config. I'm the only person I know who can fill up terabyte drives thanks to my video hobby, and with online storage in the gigabyte range becoming more and more popular, I would think redundancy and speed would be the more attractive option for desktop users.
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I think it's fair to say that solid state is the longer-term future for storage, but right now as others have already pointed out it is not cost-competitive. My biggest concern over SSDs in the near term are how to recover data if the device fails? Hard disk drives can be recovered via various "forensic" methods, but I've not heard of any methods for recovering data from a failed solid state device. Is there any? Does anybody know the actual state of the technology there?
He (Bill gates) actually said, "No one will ever need more than 640k" it was in 81 at a CES show, he repeated later at a conference. Back then even the genius developers were near sighted, he was referring to Conventional memory at the time which at the time was all DOS could handle.
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Unfortunately, wrong.
spdragoo@... 13th Oct
@razorb

Just a quick search (pick your favorite search engine) will find plenty of reliable sources that, at best, say the quote is "attributable, but not provable" to Gates...with the majority calling it "apocryphal", & more likely to have come from *IBM* than Gates.

What he *has* been shown to have said, is that since they were moving from a *64k* RAM limit (intrinsic to the 8-bit processors of the day, like those in the Apple II) to the "new" 640k RAM limit (intrinsic to the new 16-bit processors IBM was rolling out), he thought they would take a while before that starting causing a problem for app developers...but it only took them 5-6 years to start running into the RAM brick wall.
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I think it won't be too long before there will be nothing but SSDs and people will wonder in amazement how we ever depended on a mechanically spinning platter to hold our precious data.
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@kingkong88@...

I remember the first hard drive I ever saw was from a mainframe-style system, back around 1983 or so. It was a "multi-platter" design...but each platter was the sign of a 33 1/3 LP record.

The first PC I bought for myself, with Windows 98 on it (back in 1998), had a *3GB* hard drive in it. Same 3.5" form factor, and same IDE/PATA-based interface, as the 500GB drive I have for my current XP system....and while my next system will switch over to SATA instead of PATA, it'll still be the same 3.5" size, despite having at least 1TB on it.

Progress moves on... but just because the *basis* for a technology is "old-school", doesn't mean you can't keep improving it. At the basic level, my 2010 Chevy Cobalt and 2002 Malibu are *identical* to the first Ford Model T that rolled off the line over 100 years ago. Doesn't mean my Cobalt is "outdated" & ready to be replaced by a "flying car" anytime soon, just means they've upgraded the technology.

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