The ToyBox

Ricardo Bilton & Gloria Sin

Five reasons Google Android smartphones will beat iPhone, BlackBerry, WinMo

By | October 6, 2009, 7:06pm PDT

Summary: Research firm Gartner predicts that Google Android will grow to 14 percent of the global smartphone market in 2012 — beating Apple’s iPhone, Windows Mobile and RIM’s BlackBerry platforms.

The Google Android mobile operating system currently runs on less than 2 percent of the world’s smartphones, but research firm Gartner predicts the platform will grow to 14 percent of the global smartphone market in 2012 — beating Apple’s iPhone, Windows Mobile and RIM’s BlackBerry platforms.

Computerworld notes that Android will pale only to the Symbian OS, installed mostly on Nokia devices. Nokia is the world’s No. 1 phone manufacturer worldwide, and Symbian runs on about half of all smartphones.

Symbian’s share will fall to 39 percent by 2012, Gartner predicts.

Here are five reasons why Android will beat iPhone, BlackBerry and Windows Mobile on the global stage, according to Gartner’s forecast:

  • Google backs Android, a major pipeline for its cloud services.
  • Android is improving rapidly. The Cupcake 1.5 release was well-received, and Donut 1.6 has already been sent over the air to handset owners.
  • Android is open, making it easier to quickly gain developers’ support.
  • Android will run on phones from several manufacturers, which will help it quickly spread through the marketplace. HTC, Motorola and Samsung are already supporting handsets.
  • Android combines the best of what’s out there. It’s open, but it offers iPhone-like menus and apps, with Windows Mobile-esque icons, with Palm Pre-like multitasking. There’s another arms race afoot — the battle among Android handset makers as to which company can squeeze the most out of the OS.

As reported by Computerworld, Gartner forecasts the following market share in 2012:

  • Symbian: 203 million handsets, 39 percent of the market;
  • Google Android: 76 million handsets, 14.5 percent of the market;
  • Apple iPhone OS: 71.5 million handsets, 13.7 percent of the market;
  • Windows Mobile: 66.8 million handsets, 12.8 percent of the market;
  • RIM BlackBerry OS: 65.25 million handsets, 12.5 percent of the market;
  • Linux variants: 28 million handsets, 5.4 percent of the market;
  • Palm webOS: 11 million handsets, 2.1 percent of the market.

The main takeaway: Android’s the biggest gainer of the bunch, at the expense of RIM’s BlackBerry OS.

(Remember: these are global figures, not the U.S. market, which is dominated by the iPhone and BlackBerry OSes. Still, they indicate the rapid global growth of the smartphone segment.)

Which will you choose?

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Topics

Andrew J. Nusca is editor of ZDNet and SmartPlanet.

Disclosure

Andrew Nusca

Andrew J. Nusca does not hold any investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Andrew Nusca

Editor

Andrew J. Nusca is an editor for ZDNet and SmartPlanet. As a journalist based in New York City, he has written for Popular Mechanics and Men's Vogue and his byline has appeared in New York magazine, The Huffington Post, New York Daily News, Editor & Publisher, New York Press and many others. He also writes The Editorialiste, a media criticism blog.

He is a New York University graduate and former news editor and columnist of the Washington Square News. He is a graduate of the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. He has been named "Howard Kurtz, Jr." by film critic John Lichman despite having no relation to him. He lives in his native Philadelphia with his wife, cat and Boston Terrier.

Follow him on Twitter.

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HD Video
nocturnaltendencies 4th Jan 2010
I'm still waiting for HD video to land on these devices, when it does I'll ditch the land line.
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nt = no text
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The story and most of the commentators missed the well-hidden point: Nokia will continue to be the leader in all categories from the lowest to the highest end, as it is now.

Android might be the poor second, with a third of the market share of Nokia, but iPhone will remain a local niche player, if it won't go the way of the Tamagochi and RAZR. iPhone already shows it's age, and it has flopped almost everywhere outside North America. Not that many fanboys out there.
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Real News is Linux Rules Cell Phones!
i2fun@... Updated - 8th Oct 2009
If you add up all systems that will be running on some sort of Linux embedded kernel, we'll see Linux on over 110 Million by 2012. That's over 30 million more than Nokia's Symbian!

Palm's OS runs on a Linux based kernel as well. Others are basically a Unix/Linux type clone. Like iPhone! Android is most certainly Linux based itself. The reason this is so obvious in Palm and Android, is they multitask very well like Linux does on the desktop!

You see Linux riding Tux without even bragging about the fact it rules not only the Super Computer World of IBM/NSA Los Alamitos's Roadrunner in the top 100, but dominates HPC Clusters by over 90%. So who has the most powerful computer install base is obvious. When you consider the Web is also dominated by Apache Servers running on what? Linux!

Add to this that Open GL ES already OWNS the mobile world almost completely. Where Open Standards will be so far ahead of the proprietary World's OS's, that others will most certainly jump on the bandwagon. AKA..... Nokia's decision to make Symbian Open Source! grin

Linux and OpenGL Lives everywhere you are, and rules over the most powerful computers in the World down to the smallest in your hand! wink


Projected Totals = Open Source = 62+% compared to 39+% of Proprietary embedded kernels. Even though Apple's kernel is based on Unix clone BSD itself. As well as others that don't claim to be Unix/Linux based, but are!

Only Windows Mobile (directx) runs on anything other than OpenGL ES and it still needs OpenGL parts it couldn't manage to buy, borrow or steal. Looks like M$ is bent on Embracing Extending and Extinguishing itself in the Mobile World! wink

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What a noob.
dgurney 15th Oct 2009
You should really save your effort and think before typing that much crap. Look at this:

"The reason this is so obvious in Palm and Android, is they multitask very well like Linux does on the desktop!"

Uh, right. You sound like an expert. Perhaps you missed the demos of Windows NT running 20+ apps simultaneously on the desktop in the early '90s. And if the presence or absence of "multitasking" as you call it indicates the nature of the OS, then how do you explain the iPhone's lack of it? The iPhone runs a Unix variant as do Linux phones.
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You prove what a Faggish Noob U R!
i2fun@... Updated - 17th Oct 2009
Win NT ran 20 cherry picked apps on custom hardware of the day. lol..... Linux has always been better at multitasking by it's very nature. But that's not the debate, fool. The reason Android and Palm WebOS both do multitasking so much better on mobiles is quite simple. They both run Java apps that are sandboxed away from the OS! grin

So they are both running apps as VM's completely separated from themselves and the OS that runs minimally underneath more like a hypervisor. More like the OS that now runs Sony's Playstation 3, which is also run on a Linux based kernel. Notice too that Sony's Blu-Ray's BD+ also runs apps in VM's.

Open Source with not only the assorted Linuxs, Symbian, Java based and Unix derived OS's will kick your stupid arse Window's Mobiles arse to the curb! The ones that will do that most will in time also all be Java based for Mobiles including Google's upcoming Chrome OS! .....so just STFU and go play with Monkey Man Stevie's balls! xD ....or go out in the street and play with your own!!!

BTW.... if NT was so great at multi-tasking then? What happened? Why isn't it the choice of the over 90% of the HPC Cluster Market? ...or noob.... why isn't it on at least one of the top 100 Super Computers? ...ah that's right you're noobish enough to think that the NSA, DOE and IBM just wanted to save money. That they didn't pick Linux simply because it's the better OS for Security (NSA's SecureLinux kernel) and at Multi-tasking! wink
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Do you have sales figures
Pete "athynz" Athens 8th Oct 2009
to support your claim of "iPhone already shows it's age, and it has flopped almost everywhere outside North America"? If so, put them out here or link to a reliable source for this.
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I take the Gartner prediction with a big grain of salt.
Symbian may continue to rule, and iPhone and Android will likely
both continue to sell to a lot of people worldwide, but if what's
happening now in the market is an indicator, and it most likely
is, then Microsoft will continue to have a very weak market.

Don't trust too much what Gartner say, or preferably, don't trust
them at all because their prediction is all about rubbing their most
probable future and current customers the right way, i.e.
Microsoft and Google.
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The market has decided
dgurney Updated - 15th Oct 2009
that you're one of those people who like to spout worthless platitudes to hear yourself talk.
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I'm not surprised
eMJayy 6th Oct 2009
Android has the right formula going forward. I think Blackberry will outsell winmo, though. I'm seeing more traction in RIM's direction in developing countries. Blackberry handsets are beginning to filter down to the everyday working class, thanks to the introduction of pre-paid Blackberry services. If Apple continues with its "one phone" policy, it's going to lose out. You just can't conquer the world with one phone, because tastes differ depending on which region you're in. A phone that's popular in one region can do quite poorly in another.

At the end of the day, the biggest slice of the smartphone market share pie is going to go to the platform that is successful at capturing share in the developing markets. Let the price wars begin.
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You can customize your iPhone with it's various setup abilities and you
can move icons to where you feel they best suite your needs. Add to
that a selection of many thousands of Apps and being able to place
said Apps in the area you find most useful and bingo you find yourself
with a phone that can be made to uniquely fill any market place.

Also remember Apple has never been the all things for all people
company and has done quite well by not being that company. Many a
company has come and gone trying to do just that. Make a healthy
margin on everything you sell weather it be hardware, software, OS or
services and let others fight over the table scraps I always say:)

Pagan jim

Pagan jim
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Quite Well?
Screen Name 7th Oct 2009
"Also remember Apple has never been the all things for all people
company and has done quite well by not being that company. "

If you equate single-digit market share with doing quite well, then Apple is indeed doing quite well.

Other than the fast-dying music player market, Apple has never been more than a niche player.

Their barely configurable phone will fade away, selling only to folks who value shiny eye candy over all else .
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Not marketshare. Profit and stock price is the proof.
No More Microsoft Software Ever! 7th Oct 2009
Something Microsoft wishes it still had!
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In this world there are....
arminw 8th Oct 2009
Lots of people who love eye candy. In fact, there are not very many
people who don't love it. These hordes will keep Apple in the money for
a long time.
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come and gone in the time Apple has been in business do you not? So
yes quite well... incredibly well i would say. Look at their profit. What is
it now 27 BIllion in the bank and a growing market share? IBM made
MS... Apple made Apple. There is quite a difference in that alone.

Pagan jim
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You do realize that....
baldwinleo@... 10th Oct 2009
...you are confusing manufacturers with brands
and carriers. There have only ever been a small
number of manufacturers. Apple is not a
manufacturer. Motorala is. Nokia used to be.
It is the same for laptops - about 3 companies
make all the laptops. There are, however, many
"brands". For some reason, people like brands -
it makes them feel special I guess.
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You can customize the Android phones (I have a G1) and move icons to wherever you want to!! I can even put several in a FOLDER on the 'phonetop' (hey, did I just invent a new word?) or side screens of the G1...

As to Apps - well, there are THOUSANDS of them available for the G1 as well!! Even ones that Apple won't allow - like Teathering apps...

Besides, according to other articles I read, sure Apple has tons of apps, but come on now, do you really need 1400 different TIP CALCULATORS?!?!?! I guess they don't know how to use the built in calculators on the iphony... Shows you how smart iphony users are! I mean some are even PAY ones!!

Apple has a couple of things going for it:

1) Marketing - they know how to market to the young people who are impulse buyers and will buy anything if you tell them it's "cool" - "But mom, EVERYONE at school this year has a shiny jacket!!"

2) Their users are, for the most part, NOT top end users (hence the 1400+ tip calculators) who demand the phones be adaptable and open for upgrades, etc. (you know, like being able to replace the battery YOURSELF when it dies in a year or two instead of paying Apple $80 to do it for you - and they need you to send it to them too!)

Android will outdo Apple very shortly... then see if anyone wants to write apps for Apple...
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That's how you build a niche
eMJayy 7th Oct 2009
You can't use that sort of mentality or strategy to dominate a global phone market. Right now, the smartphone industry is still a high-priced niche - just 10% of the global phone industry. But that's about to change in the next few years.

Apple will continue to do what it tends to do for everything else it makes - establish a small high-end niche for itself and stay put right there. Sure, it gets better margins that way, but then its products end up mainly servicing a few rich countries with half the profits coming from its own backyard. Unlike US phone companies, phone companies around the globe aren't going to buy large amounts of high-priced, phones that require higher subsidies when they can get a larger number of similar phones with the same or better specs for significantly less. They want phones that require the least amount of subsidy. Android and a few others can provide that and more. Apple's iPhone will never be that phone, because Apple's about making as much money per device as possible....no matter what it costs them in market share.

As for the apps store, it only stands out when you're the only one doing it. Global deployment of Android will also spur global app development and the phone companies are going to help drive that market. Android users will benefit from app development tailored specifically to their own region and culture.

Oh, by the way, I just read this on Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSTRE5965IP20091007
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You really think that others..
arminw 8th Oct 2009
Can sell quality smart phones for that much less than Apple? After all,
they all get their components in the same place. In fact, because Apple
builds them in such large volume, they can get better prices for their
parts, selling for the same price or slightly less and still make a better
profit than the others.
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Fanboys are so cute...
Davest010 8th Oct 2009
"you can move icons to where you feel they best suite your needs"

Have you used an Android phone? The capabilities of these phones would make the average fanboy's head spin like a top.

This is not a slight of Apple - there will always be a market for pretty, uncomplicated devices, and the iPhone fits the bill perfectly. An Android device is basically a computer in your pocket. You can run any application that you or anyone else cares to produce (without Papa Jobs watching over your shoulder), and you can run several of them at once. I regularly listen to podcasts which I've downloaded directly to my phone (broadcast over Bluetooth to my car stereo) while using my turn-by-turn GPS software. I'm always ready for calls to come in over fully integrated Google Voice, I'm set up to receive push notification from both an exchange server and Gmail, and have apps running in the background to update my Twitter and Facebook feeds.

Yup, there will always be a market for the pretty, but there's going to be a growing market for the power and flexibility of Android.
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Yeah, fanbois are so cute...
Pete "athynz" Athens 8th Oct 2009
No matter what their stripe (Android, Apple, Microsoft, or whatever)...

MY iPhone can do just about anything one of the Android based phones can do - mainly because I jailbroke it and got rid of the leash... Android's biggest advantage over Apple - other than multiple phones - is the right out of the box flexibility that Apple's stock OS does not allow... and really even with the stock OS one CAN listen to podcasts while using GPS software.

I can update my twitter and facebook feeds on iPhone as well - even in "true" multitasking one has to go from one app to another so really what is the difference? I can go from facebook on my iPhone to tweetdeck and back and each app remembers where I left off - the same with any other app on my iPhone, so personally I do not see the big selling point with multitasking considering I can do all of the above while listening to tunes or podcasts from my iPod app... without the battery drain of "true" multitasking.

Out of curiosity does Android allow themes?
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yes android supports themes
Mr_SoloDoelo 8th Oct 2009
there are themes on the Market as well as those
developed by the good people on xda happy
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Good Point
Screen Name 7th Oct 2009
"You just can't conquer the world with one phone, because tastes differ depending on which region you're in. A phone that's popular in one region can do quite poorly in another."

Good Point. And indeed, the iPhone is selling quite poorly in the world's second-largest economy: Japan.

Android will kill the iPhone, because it will offer choice. It will be available in simple flavors for non-technical users (which is Apple's bread and butter market) and it will be available in versions which are wide open and allow increased fuctionality (which is an anathema to Apple).
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Android could hurt cell phone makers
j.m.galvin 7th Oct 2009
If Android was to become vastly widespread, it could put the cell phone
makers into a commodity market where price is everything and profits
go down.

That is what happened to the PC industry with Windows, resulting in
many formerly strong companies disappearing or, like IBM, exiting the
market.
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They do not need to pay anyone software license fees, unlike PC's where the hardware prices fall but handset makers get held ransome for there OS/PLATFORM choice.

Same thing is happening in the PC market, Microsoft cost's are going up. The other big issue is they all use Microsoft's Windows OS, which from a user prospective they all look the same, so @ that point price becomes the only distinction.

Android has a different look and feel for each phone.
G1 has keyboard MyTouch 3g has no physical keyboard,
and the CLIQ from Motorola has a totally different UI. And these are all from the same carrier, and Sprints Hero is even different. This is a big advantage handset makers can customize the look and feel, So you do not end up with one-size fits all UI
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umm - no
steeleblue_cactus 7th Oct 2009
"Same thing is happening in the PC market, Microsoft cost's are going up. The other big issue is they all use Microsoft's Windows OS, which from a user prospective they all look the same, so @ that point price becomes the only distinction."


------
Most of the handset providers are putting their own face on it. The OS is WM but the interface is different from each manufacturer
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Did You Read this Article?
i2fun@... 8th Oct 2009
Over 90% of all cell phones (including smartphones) use OpenGL ES. Which means it's a no brainer that Microsoft is a very minor player in the mobile world. They don't even have a working Windows Mobile 7 to demo. That's why even with it, it's only projected to be on 12% of the Mobile Smart Phone market.

Slice that 12% up and they'll be a very minor player in the Mobile World that right now runs on way more Unix/Linux clones and variants than any other cell phone. Or Desktop for that matter. With Cell phones now outnumbering Desktops over 3 to 1, Unix/Linux family owns the Computing World!!! grin

....especially when you consider the Web is run mostly on Apache Web Servers, Super Computer predominantly use Linux and the HPC Cluster Universe is also powered by Linux on over 90% of them out there! grin
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so true
Mr_SoloDoelo 8th Oct 2009
being a sci-fi head, i like to think of android as
a type of "robot," or "android" that can be
programmed and tweaked to assist its owner in any
way they may need; like kitt, or any of the
numerous "talking computers" in sci-fi books and
film. happy
Wouldn't it be a lot more effective?

Since people can't live without Google search these days, why doesn't Google just put some restriction and only allow Android to access to their search?

I know it's a bit evil but isn't this somethings that Microsoft and Apple always do?
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That's why!
QRasool@... 7th Oct 2009
Google's famous motto, 'Don?t Be Evil'. happy That's it! wink
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The whole purpose of Android
Michael Kelly 7th Oct 2009
was to get more people to use their software and services. Unlike MS, I don't think Google gives a flip what platform is being used, as long as their services are being used. The difference of course is that for MS the platform is the product, whereas for Google the service is the product.
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People can and do live without Google.
use_what_works_4_U 7th Oct 2009
There are competing services. Some folks tell me that there are better
competing services for that matter. If Google effectively closed the door
on these customers, the customers would go elsewhere. If there is a
vacuum that Google used to fill, rest assured someone else will try to fill
that gap, and they will likely succeed.
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Wrong business model
techconc 7th Oct 2009
Google makes its money on ad revenue. Google
isn't making money on Android. Google doesn't
care if Android is #1, #2 or #5. The purpose of
Android is to ensure that people continue to use
Google's services including search. As such,
Google will never cut off services which generate
revenue from a competitor.
If Google won't work as a search engine folks will just switch to a search engine that does work.
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Some people CAN live
Pete "athynz" Athens 8th Oct 2009
without google services... Hotmail, yahooo, ask.com, mapquest, do I need to go on?

Google won't do it for two reasons: first their "do no evil" motto and the other because of the bad publicity of such an action.
i think the love affair with apple will only grow. though
i am no apple fan boy by far (the only apple product i
own is an iphone) i believe that apple has hit the nail
on the head when it comes to building a phone and
designing an OS. This will only get better over time and
i think it will cause them to become the top contender
one day.

though this is just another prediction...
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If only...
bigsibling 7th Oct 2009
they could give me a hardware keyboard with that phone, like HTC does.
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I had a physical keyboard
Pete "athynz" Athens 8th Oct 2009
with my old HTC that was my personal phone prior ti my getting an iPhone, and my work BB has a physical keyboard - to be honest I do not miss a physical keyboard and tend to make more mistakes with the physical keyboard on my BB than I do with my touch keyboard on my iPhone. All in what one is used to or gets used to I guess.
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thats true
Mr_SoloDoelo Updated - 8th Oct 2009
but i think the majority of people would pick a
phone that has touchscreen and physical keyboards.
no matter what you're used to, sometimes the touch
keyboards aren't convenient, especially with
android, because rooted (jailbroken) droids
sometimes require you to type in code to hack or
tweak something. Who wants to do that on a touch
keyboard?
Ultimately market is going to decide who's going to beat whom in near future.
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The media decides
msdamico@... 8th Oct 2009
Unfortunatly the market does not decide. The market follows what the Media tells them is their choice. Since the madia tends to follow the best marketing campaign the company with the best marketing will win, even of the product isn't the best. Just look at all of the iPhonys being sold.
With deep pockets and a keen understanding on the future I would bet my money on Apple. They have been the classiest organization in the Tech World for years and I don't see that dominance fading anytime soon.
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Actually...
Sleeper Service 7th Oct 2009
...my bet would be that the iPhone market share crashes and burns in two years unless the diversify the product line.
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stuff and it almost always involved an Apple product. How many
predictions of the iPod eventual fall from grace were there? I can't tell
you the articles and statements about the iPhone and its only been
around for a couple years now. We can go back to the venerable
Macintosh as well if we want to but I think that's a bit much... lets just
agree I've made my point.

One would think that for all the various "reasons" for Apples products
eventual and inevitable failures that a very long time ago Apple would
have ceased to be a factor or a company at all:P

I say wait and see. All these "reasons" for failure have some validity
that I admit but I also seem to think that Apple manages to surprise a
great many experts and pundits along the way and Apple does it often
enough to have some level of confidence on my part that things are
not as you thing Sleeper.

Pagan jim
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Jim, I'm talking about phones not PMPs...
Sleeper Service 7th Oct 2009
...it doesn't matter who makes it and how good it is if it's not fashionable anymore.
Pagan jim
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You give all the credit to Apple while forgetting
GuidingLight Updated - 7th Oct 2009
it is the consumers who make or break a product line.

iPod sales have slowed, the newest model sales not up to expectations, even though Apple added some innovative features. Why?

Once Apple reaches the point in which all available features have been added to the iPhone, what is the incentive to purchase the next model?

They were smart to hold features out of each release, an incentive to have a customer purchase the next model to obtain those long awaited features, so once the summit is reached, what spurs sales?

With new releases of Android, WinMobile, Symbian availabe for many a phone comming, there is plenty of room for growth in those systems, and various phones avalilbe to allow consumers to macth the phone they want to the operating system they want.

Add to that that many of these operating systems will adapt to standard, no smartphone style phones, so the share is larger then just a smartphone only base.

I say let us wait for the consumers to weigh in before claiming anything to be an in the basket success.

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iPhone is a success today. Don't pontificate it's failure. Vista WAS a failure (Ballmer admitted such) so it is entirely reasonable to expect Win7 to be a failure. Get it?
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If Vista was a failure...
Sleeper Service 8th Oct 2009
...and still had about three times the market share of all variants of OS X then what does that make OS X?

As for Linux desktops... well the less said about that the better.
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Vista is a failure
Pete "athynz" Athens 8th Oct 2009
not due to sales but due to being a bug-ridden and slow a$$ steaming pile of crap. THE ONLY way Vista generated any sales was it's inclusion in every new wintel PC in the last few years... my HP Pavilion came with that crap and after giving it a month and dealing with the bugs, the memory bleeds, the constant slowdowns I ripped Vista out like the crapware it is and installed XP and never looked back. Vista is nothing more than a repainted version of Me...

Market share is one thing - and Microsoft has always had that - but quality is something else altogether...

Sleeper Service I find it amusing how you can talk about market share here on the one had with Apple equating it to crap yet on the other with the iPods you say it is a passing fad... just admit you hate Apple and leave it at that, okay?
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Stop regurgitating bullcrap.
dgurney 15th Oct 2009
"Three times the market share"? No. It was shipped preinstalled on every standard non-Mac computer configuration for a while. We all know that, so stop trying to pretend that people actually CHOSE this piece of garbage over XP. For all anyone knows, people got these systems and wiped them and installed the XP they already owned.
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HD Video
nocturnaltendencies 4th Jan 2010
I'm still waiting for HD video to land on these devices, when it does I'll ditch the land line.

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