You seem to have a particular expectation of
what "winning" and "failing" in the market
means.
Imagine someone has the plan to sell a piece of
art for $100. So, they go to a flea market, put
their art on a table, and someone offers them
$150 for it. Sold.
From the artists perception, it was a success.
A MAJOR success. They intended on selling the
art for $100 but, instead, sold it for 50%
more. Fantastic.
You, however, enter the scene and say, "They
failed. Their art isn't hanging in a museum and
hasn't fetched a million dollars or more like
other artwork. Therefore, the artist has failed
miserably. $150? c'mon!"
It seems to me that you have been programmed by
the media to assume that every new phone needs
to be an "iPhone killer" to be relevant. On the
contrary, no single Android phone has been an
iPhone killer so far. With the onslaught of
multiple Android phones, the collective lends
itself to become an iPhone killer.
Killing the iPhone isn't about selling more
with a single device. It's about showing
consumers that you can have a choice. It's
about showing that your choices can involve a
phone that let you install software that hasn't
been explicitly approved by Apple or Google or
any other Big Brother. It's about showing
developers that you can write an app for a
phone using a Windows machine, a Linux machine,
or a Mac... and that you aren't confined to
just one particular type of OS to develop with.
If you were to compare Android phones on day
one or month one or year one to sales of the
iPhone, you could certainly make the case that
maybe Android was a bad idea. Now, you've got
companies like Motorola who have 8 Android
phones and plan another 20 more before the end
of this year.
Next, you could turn to money... showing how
Apple is making a whole lot more money from the
sales of iPhones than Google will ever make
from the sales of Android phones. In fact,
Microsoft stands to profit more from Android
phones than Google. Go figure.
But, I'm assuming you're a consumer. From a
consumer standpoint, we shouldn't care how much
Apple makes from selling devices to us. If we
were to care at all, we should be demanding
they make less money. After all, this is what
an open market is supposed to be... several
options which make haggling and shopping around
possible. Nobody pats themselves on the back
for shopping at Wal-Mart and showing just how
much money Wal-Mart makes from them.
Again, this isn't about phone sales...
corporate profits... brand marketing... etc...
to an investor or high ranking employee at one
of these corporations, sure... but for
consumers, it should always be about choice...
openness... and competition.
iPhones are only made by Apple. Android phones
are made by *everyone else*.
Now that we are finally entering the tablet era
(again), one should expect things to shape up
in a similar manner. You'll see iPads... and
then Android Tablet devices by *everyone else*.
It is very early to start making comparisons
right now. Again, you point to the mistakes
Google is making in the tablet market. It isn't
their mistake to make because they are "hands
off". Maybe your view is that being so "hands
off" is, itself, THE mistake.
I see it the other way. They don't need to play
Big Brother and try to dictate to hardware
manufacturers what must be done. They should
just let each hardware manufacturer compete in
the open market. They should each try their own
angle to innovate. And, rather than each
manufacturer trying to struggle with unique
operating systems, they can all use the free
Android operating system, knowing that the OS
layer is already taken care of for them... that
the apps keep rolling in... and that the
updates will keep coming.
Sure, the iPhone and the iPad had a head start.
That's great for Apple and Apple alone.
However, Motorola, HTC, Dell, and many other
hardware manufacturers have not been given the
option to make iPhones and iPads running
Apple's OS. So, their only other choice is to
either create their own OS... or use Android.
It is clear that everyone is flocking to
Android. Apple is, obviously, sticking with
their own. Microsoft is, obviously, sticking
with their own. Everyone else is using Android.
For the iPhone to truly win, it will need to
maintain more than a 50% share of all hardware
when competing with all other hardware
manufacturers. If Microsoft manages to compete
well, there will be virtually no chance of
Apple accomplishing this. So, the landscape
might be 35% iPhone and 15% Windows Mobile.
This would leave the remaining 50% for Android.
One should expect the same situation to occur
for tablet PCs, with the exception that Apple
had a much better head start in this arena.
If your "faith" in the ability for a company to
"execute a plan" is for them to go from 0% to
20% market penetration overnight, then you are
clearly delusional. Real success of executing a
plan comes from the long haul. Google's plan
has always been about the long haul. The Nexus
One was profitable for Google. Plain and
simple. It didn't let them quit the search
business and focus solely on becoming a mobile
phone company, but this was never their plan.
The whole goal of the Nexus One was to provide
a benchmark for all other hardware
manufacturers to strive for. It was also an
attempt to test an online-only sales method for
phones. It was never about the phone. It was
about the store. It was an experiment.
Experiments aren't performed hoping they will
"win" or "lose". The experiment is performed to
analyze the outcome. The outcome was analyzed.
It may very well turn out that the store
concept will be shuttered and they'll move on.
Or else, they'll keep it going for as long as
it remains profitable. In any case, Android
keeps going strong... the app store keeps
growing... and as soon as Android phones
support Flash next month, you'll see the number
of apps start skyrocketing.
Eventually, they will unleash Native Client on
the world. It will be yet another way to write
applications for machines and devices. Android
will support it. So will ChromeOS, as well as
the Chrome Browser.
Again, all developers will have a series of
options made available to them to develop how
they choose to develop. Hardware manufacturers
will have a series of options made available to
them to make hardware how they choose to make
hardware. Amidst all of this developer and
manufacturer choice will be the one common
thread. The Android operating system.
Apple will be around forever, with their iPhone
and iPad and iWhateverElseTheyComeUpWith...
but, just like Macs, they will keep holding
strong with their minority position. It's a
position they are very comfortable being in.
They are the Mercedes of manufacturers. You
might never see a day where the majority of the
people on the planet are driving Mercedes', but
that's OK.
