Arthur on why IT matters

Steve Fulling, CIO of Sento Corp wrote me to say he'd heard W. Brian Arthur, a Santa Fe Institute economist, speak last night on why IT matters.  Steve reports the gist of the talk was that India and China will not steal USA innovation and dominance in the world economy.  Arthur's basic view is that IT drives innovation and this innovation has just begun.  Arthur said after the railroad stocks and businesses crashed (in the UK and US), there was 10x the growth period after a 3-4 year "settling" out just after the crash.  During the crash, you could not give away railroads, but when you did the math 10 times more track was laid after than during the peak of the railroad bubble.

Arthur's views are diametrically opposed to those of  Nicholas Carr who wrote the infamous IT Doesn't Matter paper.   Arthur has been saying this for a while--I wrote something about them a few years ago.  I wish I'd been there to hear him speak.