How HP's Palm buy could crush Apple

By | May 4, 2010, 7:17am PDT

Summary: HP may just have become the first credible contender to Apple’s dominance in the smartphone game.

Last week, in Palm, a Silicon Valley soap opera, I opined that HP had overspent to the tune of $1,195,000,000 when it bought Palm for $1.2 billion. After reading two fascinating articles and thinking about the deal all weekend, I’m thinking instead that HP may have made a very smart move.

First, let me credit the two writers. The first is our own Jason Perlow, who wrote HP’s Slate was an Ugly Baby with Windows 7 and basically claimed that the Slate would never have been a contender running just Windows 7.

The second article was by the wise and very French Jean-Louis Gassée who wrote Very Personal Computing. In it, Jean-Louis contends that the financial gravity of the computing world has shifted to smartphones.

He claims:

The smartphone isn’t just a new genre, it’s nothing less than a reboot of personal computing.

I knew Jean-Louis back in the 1980s, when he was the head of the “Paris” project at Apple, the creation of the Mac II — the first very beige, very boxy, color Macintosh. During Steve Jobs’ wilderness years, Jean-Louis provided much of the vision for Apple engineering and in my opinion held Apple together spiritually until Jobs returned.

Next: Lessons from Jean-Louis »

Topics

David Gewirtz, Distinguished Lecturer at CBS Interactive, is an author, U.S. policy advisor, and computer scientist. He is featured in The History Channel special The President's Book of Secrets.

Disclosure

David Gewirtz

At various times during his adult life, David has voted for both Democrats and Republicans, and has been disappointed by both. He is deeply disturbed by how partisanship has come before patriotism in America, which gives him the freedom to pick on both sides.

David is a frequent guest on TV and radio stations across America and can usually be heard or seen on-the-air at least once a week. He writes weekly commentary and analysis for CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 and has been interviewed by Fox News, CNN, various ABC and NBC affiliates, and Canada’s Global TV. He has been a featured guest on National Public Radio and has also been featured on Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and Radio Liberty where his commentaries on technology, industry, and emerging nations have been broadcast into 46 countries (all in their own unique translations).

David is the executive director of U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute, a nonprofit research and policy organization. He is the Cyberterrorism Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security and a special contributor to Frontline Security Magazine. He is a member of the FBI’s InfraGard program, the security partnership between the FBI and industry. David is also a member of the U.S. Naval Institute and the National Defense Industrial Association, the leading defense industry association promoting national security.

David is an advisory board member for the Technical Communications and Management Certificate program at the University of California, Berkeley extension. He is also a member of the instructional faculty at the University of California, Berkeley extension.

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Back in the 1980s, David held the unusual title of “Godfather” at Apple. He has written and published 40 incredibly simplistic applications for Apple’s iPhone.

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Biography

David Gewirtz

In addition to hosting the ZDNet Government and ZDNet DIY-IT blogs, CBS Interactive's Distinguished Lecturer David Gewirtz is an author, U.S. policy advisor, and computer scientist. He is featured in The History Channel special The President's Book of Secrets, is one of America's foremost cyber-security experts, and is a top expert on saving and creating jobs. He is also director of the U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute as well as the founder of ZATZ Publishing.

David is a member of FBI InfraGard, the Cyberwarfare Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, and has been a regular CNN contributor, and a guest commentator for the Nieman Watchdog of the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University. He is the author of Where Have All the Emails Gone?, the definitive study of email in the White House, as well as How To Save Jobs and The Flexible Enterprise, the classic book that served as a foundation for today's agile business movement.

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RE: How HP's Palm buy could crush Apple
efsane Updated - 11th Apr 2011
Great!! ! thanks for sharing this information to us!
sesli sohbet sesli chat
0 Votes
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With iPad, Apple has perfect form-factor, perfect battery life, perfect UI, perfectly fit for UI applications.

Any differentiations from that lead to less usable variants, which can not beat Apple's level of sales at all (Apple contracted manufacturers to produce 13 million IPS displays for iPad, so you can guess the volume).

And even if someone will match Apple's key features I listed (which is not seen soon at all), then public still already has perfectly fit iPad devices and there is no any significant reason why would they want to choose non-iPad.

(No, having USB port or videocamera will have no real value to customers, comparing to key features I listed above.)



As to "smartphone games", Apple does not dominate smartphone market yet at all; it only dominates "new smartphones" category, which it created three years ago.

However, the fact it is HP who bought Palm makes no difference since companies of all calibres tried to attack Apple's dominance in their "new smartphone" market, and they can not compete yet.

For example, Android devices (with OS which is at least no worse than WebOS) with all of the money could not shatter Apple even a tinniest bit.
0 Votes
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Reason why NOT to buy IPAD
Uralbas 4th May 2010
It belongs to Apple and its overpriced
The subject.
0 Votes
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... anything anyone else has to offer but for $499, I can buy a nice laptop that will do much more than what the iPad will do.

The iPad is little more than an over-sized iPod Touch.
0 Votes
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Urablas heading should read:
john@... 4th May 2010
Reason why I will NOT buy an IPAD.

It is personal Uralbas. No one is making you buy it.
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HP Slate was going to be more expensive
vela.eduardo@... 4th May 2010
Until Slate was put on hold the price was higher and the features more limited
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Your Loss
MacNewton 28th May 2010
We are having tons of fun with ours, sorry that you can't be part of this. So go back to your PeeCee and play some of you're boring games.

Long live the iPad
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You're the Dreamer friend
pablo.station 4th May 2010
"there is no any significant reason why would they want to choose non-iPad."

1st off, ((WRONG))
There are literally millions of people that wont buy in ipad simply because it servers no purpose. Its strictly a luxury item/status symbol and if you think otherwise you're the one dreaming. 2nd, There are millions more who wont buy an ipad because once you do you're locked into apples closed off proprietary system and that's a deal breaker for more people than you think. Software may be good, buy absolutely NOT the best.


And you're smart phone rant is off the mark. apple has already peaked in this area. At this point apple will never "dominate" the smart phone market. Yes apple leads in this area but everyday they lose more customers because the iphone hardware/software has become dated. People want something more than what apple can provide. Thats where Android comes in (and HP/Palm if they can get it together). You can sing the praises of apple all you want but im willing to bet you haven't even tried Android for more than 2 min. SO your comments about other OS's are uninformed and ridiculous.
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I am the dreamer friend. I don't care about the
latest apps, usb ports or camera's. I want to be
able to turn the thing on and given the BEST MEDIA
experience EVER. No thinking necessary. This is
the beauty of Apple. I have had enough of my PC,
my $400.00 HTC TOUCHPRO 2 with the world worst
windows or whatever operating system. Have had the
thing for 8 months and I have grown to hate it
more and more every day. I am ready for my IPAD.
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I'm The Dreamer and Apple's Target Market
pablo.station Updated - 4th May 2010
lol,
"No thinking necessary"
you got that right, Apple is the Pop-up books of the tech world lol..

Listen im not trying to change your opinion about apple, its obvious that *most* apple fanboys/girls are going to stay just that but don't perpetuate apples ridiculous behavior. There is other innovative tech that's just as good if not better. FACT
-- it is actually opposite.

So my take was correct and you were dreaming, sorry.
not for long, do some research lol..

lame.
0 Votes
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iPad isn't perfect. (And Apple knows this, that's why they continue to work on new and improved versions.) Someday, all of these "smartphones" will replace HD videocameras-- completely, except for professional films. That's not "of no value to customers", it's just of no value to you.

The competition isn't done until all of the OTHER competitors quit and drop out of the business completely. And there's no signs that HTC, Nokia, Motorola, and everybody is about to do that. You make a mess of excellent points by extrapolating into total nonsense.
- - - - -

Pablo, you need to give it rest, too. You and a bunch of other people feel that iPhone is overpriced- fine. for you. There are MILLIONS of people who have happily paid Apples' price, creating vast profits at Apple-- because they really, really like 'em.

There's more iPhones than WinMo phones, and the growth rate is higher too. (Yeah, I just did the "research, LOL". So just stop screaming, please.)
@denisrs need to charged ever.
0 Votes
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Refreshing to see a tech writer who actually thinks and
re-thinks his position. You make salient points on all
sides. Well done! Ball is in HP's court now. The only
thing that concerns me is that they may be so distracted
with their quest to put webOS on a
tablet/printer/refrigerator/toaster that they lose the
much-needed focus required to compete in the SMARTPHONE
market. If smartphones is where they wanna go, then they
need to go ALL-IN.
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Dynamic duo?
MC_z 4th May 2010
Let's see here... Palm was doing great, really ripping them
up, right? And HP has long been an innovator in UI and user
experience, right? Right? Sounds like a perfect combination.
For something.
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But don't stop there....
dave95. Updated - 4th May 2010
Palm's hardware was not that great. And HP is
not known for great designs in hardware.
Actually one of the reasons I stay away from HP
is there hardware. Great match!
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What means crush to you?
vela.eduardo@... 4th May 2010
I mean, macbook and macbook pros do crush HP laptops, obviously Ipad crushed Slate before birth and also crushes any HP netbook and Imacs are way ahead HPs all in one machines.
The only area where hp shines are printers, so assuming that only because of the adquisition of Palm the recipe for a successfull smartphone and tablet OS is done sounds too optimistic, not only beacuse are hundred or thousands of other factors but also because time is running and HP/Palm is at least 6 mothns behind Apple and Google at least. And once they catch up and pass Apple then maybe will be able to 'crush' them. Really unlikely in my opinion.
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Re:
dvm Updated - 4th May 2010
"I mean, macbook and macbook pros do crush HP
laptops"
Maybe that's your opinion, but not a fact. Did
you know that HP Elitebooks meets military
specification for a rugged notebook?

http://www.hp.com/sbso/solutions/pc_expertise/p
rofessional_innovations/hp-military-grade-
specifications.pdf

Does Apple have it? No. BTW, why Apple still
making you pay more for a 3YR warranty when the
in the Elitebooks are standard?

Or maybe you are refering sales, where Apple
crushes HP. But it looks like HP have a big
advantage over Apple too,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2010/
apr/27/notebooks-netbooks-suppliers-intel-atom

Apple make great hardware, but can't match
neither HP or Lenovo in notebook quality...
0 Votes
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A Big Ask.
john@... 4th May 2010
Good luck to HP and Palm in their endeavors but they have
a long way to go. I don't see them having a product for at
least 3 months and then, once they have one, where are
the apps, where are the movies / music / books?

Apple have spent a long time lining these ducks up and no
one saw it coming. It isn't just that the hardware is great. It
isn't just that the software is fast. It isn't just that the
battery life is so good. It is a continuation of all the things
that Apple have put in place since 1997. So a bit of a way
to go then.
0 Votes
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Palm Released these "more sexy, more fun" WebOS smartphones... but didn't create any tools to support migration of 3rd party, PalmOS legacy Applications onto the new phones.

Tons of Applications, some costing $100s per year, found themselves "stranded" on old 780s, 750s, 680s, and Tungstens (to name just a few). App Developers saw that migrating into WebOS was just has hard as migrating to Android, or WinMo, or iPhone OS.

And it took only a quick look at market trends to choose the other migration paths. Maybe this is something HP will fix.
OTOH, a $Billion acquisition isn't a 3-month thing, you (john) should be thinking much further out when you consider the kinds of "strategic products" which could result.
0 Votes
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Contributr
Developers
David Gewirtz 4th May 2010
I agree. Palm's behavior to their legacy developers has been shameful.
0 Votes
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HP WebOS ARM-Tablets? Makes perfect sense to me.
Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Advocate Updated - 4th May 2010
And it isn't a stretch to see HP ramp up sum ARM muscle (multi-core A9) and start marketing new-generation Notebooks/Netbooks and palm devices based on WebOS.
0 Votes
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But...
john@... 4th May 2010
The question is how long will it take HP to ramp this up? They first have
to clear the deal with Palm and then they have to start work on the
project - that is a lot to do and so little time.
good system on a chip vendors that they can turn
to right away. They might later want to own
their own Arm system on a chip designs as Apple
does now, but they do not need to do that to
start.

But, YES, considering that Apple is already to
market, they have no time to waste.
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Yes, BUT....
Rick S._z 4th May 2010
More than a $Billion for WebOS, when Intel and Nokia are already doing most of the "heavy lifting" on MeeGo? Don't forget, Intel and HP have been partners for a long time, all the way up into the realm of criminality. (MeeGo will do both ARM and x86, of course-- Intel's doing it to sell atom CPUs, chipsets, and microcomputers.)
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While your opinion piece has a lot of good points, I think that
the headline saying that HP can "crush" Apple is a huge
exaggeration. HP can become a credible player in the
marketplace, but webOS still falls short of the iPhone OS that
is on the iPhone and iPad. I think that HP made a good
purchase, and it will serve them well, but they'll still play
second (or third) fiddle to Apple and Google in this area.
0 Votes
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RE: How HP's Palm buy could crush Apple
ckharry@... 4th May 2010
Most of you techies misread the market place - most of your must have do not mean anything to the real consumer!
Apple understand the real consumer. The real consumer is not interested in computer science niceties, the real consumer is interested is a device that meets his need and Apple knows how to fulfil this need.
Will HP manufacture their own chips to run whatever smartphone? can HP provide their own word processor and spreadsheet comperable to what the iPad offers and at comparable cost?
HP crushing Apple? I think not.
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RDF
Don108 4th May 2010
Let's see, you take the advice from Gassee who set the stage
to drive Apple into oblivion, then think that because old HP
execs who have never been very successful at marketing
anything but printers to consumers work at a company that
failed and has an OS that "by all reports" (you mean, you
didn't even look at it yourself?) was good, HP will "crush"
Apple? Now that's a real reality distortion field!
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David Gerwitz..you must read your own bio too often. Bob Ramsdell, my old pal and confidant told me back in mid 80's that smartphones would come in some day...and that Apple would present the best. HP was then and is now a wannabee! I bought APPL stock from the get go, and am SO happy I did..HP has swallowed a tiny but pernicious hook called Palm which will cause it to hemorrhage and depart that competitive business. HP/Compaq has elderly druids in their Marketing Department...a recently retired one gave me that comment.
HP could NOT crush apple with a large mallet, let alone a Palm product! Rockport, MA, Sunapee, NH)
0 Votes
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While David has given us a good history lesson, he has not explained to us how this acquisition could "crush Apple".
He are the facts:
1) HP acquired Palm, very likely to get into the mobile device game (phones/tablets)
2) Palm's offerings in the smartphone arena were going nowhere
3) HP put their Windows tablet on ice
4) Palm has a mature mobile OS
5) HP has a lot of money, much more than Palm anyways

OK how's all of this going to "crush Apple"?
0 Votes
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Potential?
Synthmeister Updated - 4th May 2010
All HP has right now is potential, albeit the potential to control their
own destiny.

1. Potential to create it's own mobile devices without waiting on the
dinosaur in the tar pits otherwise known as WinMo 7 or depending on
the wild, wild west solution known as Android, where every month,
another OEM can diffuse your marketing or Google can introduce the
"best" Android phone.

2. Potential to control the ecosystem around its devices: the developer
SDK, the computer sync experience, the app market, etc.

However, HP is in much the same position as Apple when it bought
NEXT over 10 years ago. Gobs and gobs of potential, but it will take
incredible, laser-like focus to exploit that potential, and it will
probably take 5 to 10 years before HP can reap the rewards. They will
have to be very patient. And if they let themselves get distracted by
Android or WinMo 7 or some other option in the mobile space, then
they will have wasted $1 Billion.

First job for HP is to create a world class sync software/app
store/media store a la iTunes.

Second job is to realize that you can't depend on any other third party
for any strategic part of your ecosystem. Not Microsoft, not Google,
not Adobe and definitely not Apple. Because when the going gets
tough, they'll ditch you.
0 Votes
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how exactly?
dresky - take out ya nerd sticks and lets nerd fap 4th May 2010
hp becoming a great competitor? hell yea
hp crushing apple? hell no

every day people label another product an apple killer yet anyone is yet to see apple die.

you really think someone who paid a premium for their device is going to drop it because someone came out with a subpar device and everyone else labeled it a killer?

iphone i my opinion is a blackberry killer why it created a new category of devices.
to kill the iphone a completely new device has to step up.

the ipad took an old genre and reinvented it the ipad is just gaining momentum no device will actually kill it. but devices will be great contenders.

stop calling devices apple killer because they wont kill apple.
a good share of the market if they can move
fast. The first thing is to pick an existing Arm
system on a chip solution. Nvidia might be a
really good choice for them to start.

They could also do like Apple and pick up one of
the many Arm system on a chip companies, but not
right away.
Don't you writers realise how dumb you look?
0 Votes
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p.s. Give it a bloody break!!
Arm A. Geddon Updated - 4th May 2010
My reply to the bloggers not only here at ZDNet but elsewhere. Is there
not anything else to write about except, "Apple is doomed"?
0 Votes
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Apple obsession is out of hand
paul2011 4th May 2010
It seems that ZDnet writers are obsessed with Apple. Every day half or more articles are about Apple even if there are no new products or announcements from Apple.
Seems like ZDNet is slowly becoming a CNN of tech with writers that have serious iOCD cases.
0 Votes
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To the author
Monkeypox 4th May 2010
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
0 Votes
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CRUSH Apple? No... Co-exist successfully? Possible.
Playdrv4me Updated - 4th May 2010
WebOS is the first alternative (to Apple)
smartphone/tablet/smart-thing operating system that
TRULY makes sense in the "human usability" department,
and in some senses even more-so. I know that when I'm
using my iPad I frequently find myself accidentally
practicing a behavior present in WebOS that doesn't
exist else-where (to my knowledge), which I find
altogether quite fascinating... WebOS/Palm introduced a
nifty hard-ware based "swipe" feature at the bottom of
my Palm Pre's surface that allows you to "back up" or
"move forward" in any application or on the web, simply
by swiping across a separate touch sensitive area
OUTSIDE of the bottom screen.

The reason this fascinates me is because it feels like
such a natural and logical response to the O/S
flow, that I just EXPECT it to work the same even on an
iDevice. This tells me Palm knows what they're doing from
a software and human interface perspective. With proper
guidance and a good hardware eco-system, I see no reason
why they can't co-exist successfully in the smart-
phone/smart-device realm. Yes, there is a major hurdle
with apps and content, but it isn't an insurmountable
obstacle by any means... as proven by Android's burgeoning
selection of apps.

Frankly, I think HP will face more of a challenge in the
stuffy business sector owned by RIM than they will in
the consumer, Apple oriented one.
0 Votes
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The 'Crush Apple' is just a bait headline to promote flamewars between aficianados...

Love or hate Apple, they do innovate and produce nice products. Their lock-down approach stifles wayward apps, but also suppresses the explosion of open-source apps that tend to promotoe larger market share. Hence the market split as it stands.

The future is smartphones?; history will add its own selection of condiments to this statement. Personally I don't have one, and not interested in having one at the moment.

The article is right in one thing: having your own OS loses the carrot+stick from exteral OS vendors - you write your own rules.
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I think you were right the first time, it's about 1.95 billion too much.
How much does one of those Palm things sell for? And what is
the profit margin? So, how many Palms do they have to sell just to
get their money back? About 50 million of them? And in the
meantime, what is Apple going to be doing with 1.2 billion dollars
of research?
0 Votes
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I totally agree.
roystonlodge 4th May 2010
One of the biggest selling points for the iPad is the
large repository of iPhone apps that it can run right
out of the box.

Well, a WebOS-based tablet from HP would run the
THOUSANDS of free apps that are already out there for
the Classic PalmOS!

I still use my ancient Palm m100 for several
applications, because I simply cannot find anything
newer that does a better job.

If HP can market a WebOS tablet by targeting
independent developers and promising WAY fewer
headaches than they currently suffer by jumping
through Apple's hoops, HP could have a real winner on
its hands.

Especially if HP's tablet has a USB connection or two.
He's been a Palm user since the IIIe, currently uses a
Palm Pre, and cannot WAIT for a WebOS-based tablet.

He says that such a device, if HP gets it right, will
be INVALUABLE to him when he's on the road with
clients, evaluating properties, etc, etc, etc.

I think the key to success will be the amount of
freedom that HP allows for independent app developers.
The kiss of death would be the sort of restrictions
that developers have to deal with when working with
Apple.
0 Votes
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HP WebOS tablet? A far off joke...
ConstableOdo 4th May 2010
HP just acquired Palm. You think HP is that great to be able to whip
out a HP/Palm tablet in a few months. They'd be lucky to get it into
production by the end of the year. Your friend should be ready to
WAIT and WAIT some more. If the Pre is any indication of what an
iPhone killer was supposed to be, then I'm sure the HP/Palm tablet will
be just as much of a failure. Everyone seems to think that all a
company has to do is slap a few parts together and make the product
a success by wishing it to be so.

HP doesn't have a clue about building tablets or they would never have
come up with some ridiculous Windows 7-powered tablet using an
Atom processor. Any fool should have known that would be a failure
from the start. Consumers sure don't want a netbook with the
keyboard severed off and being called a tablet. I doubt if HP even
knows what consumers want. Whatever HP builds is going to be an
imitation of the iPad but with added ports and a camera. That's all
they know about improving a product. Just slap some more hardware
on it and call it Macaroni.
0 Votes
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Because
MC_z 4th May 2010
The real estate agent likes the idea because it will be big enough to build
a house on.
0 Votes
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Not convincing...
dave95. Updated - 4th May 2010
This will get HP on the racing track and a
few miles closer from the other big guys, but
crush? Not exactly. HP is not exactly known
for great hardware designs and build to take
take on Apple. Palm with all its ex Apple
employees have not proven they're great in
hardware build and design either.

Developers - will developers rush over to the
platform now that HP bought it? What will
convince them to do so now? HP? HP have to
prove themselves with this purchase, and
layout a solid roadmap for the OS. They need
to show drool-worthy hardware in the
pipelines running the OS that consumers will
want to purchase over the iPhone, or Droid
incredible for instance. Developers need to
be convinced that HP/Palm is a viable
alternative consumers will gravitate towards.
0 Votes
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RE: How HP's Palm buy could crush Apple
Rob_Uribe@... 4th May 2010
David, thanks for following up with the additional info.
Wasn't aware of the historical and cultural ties of HP
and Palm.

What I hope to see is HP sufficiently inspired to counter
Apple's quality products - not "crush Apple", but be a
quality alternative.
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RE: How HP's Palm buy could crush Apple
jamesagada 4th May 2010
HP Crush Apple? Please spare me. What exactly is HP going to do better than Apple? Lower prices? Sell to corporates? improve the UI? I think HP is running after the wrong horse
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Page 2 Edit:
JLHenry 4th May 2010
You have "should (and shouldn?t be)." Shouldn't it be "should (and shouldn?t) be."?

Very good Article. Well thought out, and logical.
0 Votes
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Contributr
Copy editing appreciated!
David Gewirtz 4th May 2010
Fixed.

And, yes, you're hired. happy
0 Votes
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RE: How HP's Palm buy could crush Apple
efsane Updated - 11th Apr 2011
Great!! ! thanks for sharing this information to us!
sesli sohbet sesli chat

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