Don't give up on alternative energy, says EER. They cite three long-term trends that mean a long and successful future for effective producers of electricity and energy not based on fossil fuels: "The globe is still warming, the earth’s fossil fuel resources are still being depleted, and the developing world’s demand for energy will continue to grow in leaps and bounds."
EER certainly seems to be right on their third point: developing nations needing raw materials in huge amounts. As soon as China announced its big economic bail-out plan, the financial markets sent oil prices up along with the stock of mining and other resource suppliers.
EER thinks the credit crunch willsmash a lot of bad ideas, some good ones and halt projects that were not going to find suppliers or financial supporters anway. They point to the fact that there isn't production capacity for all the projected alternative energy development that has been announced. Something will not definitely give way. EER seems particularly skeptical about wave energy projects.
EER is looking at the hard reality right now. They preject very tough times for start-ups needed VC or other investments. They also suspect many heavily-leveraged energy projects will falter. I recently blogged on some of the early fall-out. Not every alternative energy idea deserves or will find a bail-out. Sounding like an Obama advisor, EER says, "The stronger players – led by solvent utilities, cash-rich oil and gas companies, the larger industrial manufacturers, and the smarter and more successful new-energy competitors – will survive and will have opportunities to reap competitive advantage in a rationalizing market. Ultimately the emerging energy sector, backed by unrelenting macro drivers and increasing policy support globally, will likely lead the global economy out of its current morass."