American auto industry low on fuel and popular support
Summary: After today's Senate hearings the Detroit Big Three are nowhere nearer getting any federal aid than they were after their last visit. Whatever you may think of the automakers "plan" to change and become viable, there is no plan in the Senate itself that would lead to a bill that would be accepted by both parties and be signed by the current President.
After today's Senate hearings the Detroit Big Three are nowhere nearer getting any federal aid than they were after their last visit. Whatever you may think of the automakers "plan" to change and become viable, there is no plan in the Senate itself that would lead to a bill that would be accepted by both parties and be signed by the current President.
And, as I blogged here Tuesday, the price tag is rising. Now it could be as much as $34 billion in this first round of gimme. One economist testified today the ultimate bill to salvage the Big Three could run well over $75 billion.
[poll id=48]
While there may be a Congressional vote next week on some sort of compromise plan, there's clear opposition to any federal aid. The leading Republican in today's hearing comes from Alabama which has car plants run by overseas auto makers, and has no union representation. You can bet he'll not vote to use any of his voters' taxes to save Detroit. There is certainly not a lot of public support for saving the Big Three. One polls shows Americans opposed by 61% with only 37% in favor of rescuing American automakers.
There are unlimited opinions from the chattering classes that run the gamut from complex bankruptcy schemes to "let 'em die" to nationalize at least one of them. Call-in shows reflect everything from disgust with the previous bailouts for Wall Street to anger over saving incompetent auto execs to fear of what would happen if America owned ZERO major automakers. There's open speculation from speculating folk that a short-term compromise might be reached to keep GM operating through January, effectively passing this hot potato to the next administration. Here's one opinionator who says Wall Street--basking in its own bailout--has written off Detroit as dead meat, investment wise. GM and Ford stocks were back down today, of course.
MEANWHILE, IN THE REAL WORLD
Swiss solar taxi in British Columbia earlier this year. Courtesy B.C. government.
A Swiss engineered solar powered car has just finished its round the world trip. It's arrived in Poznan, Poland, where world climate experts are meeting about greenhouse gases and global warming. Earlier I blogged on the less-than-cheery atomospheric data being revealed there.
The main part of the Poznan meeting is next week and the official US stance will be one of co-operation and compromise. Outside the talks environmental groups claim the talks are mostly hot air, no firm targets for reducing greenhouse gases will be set.
And the economic climate is changing as well. Here's one example from our cohorts at CNET where they are covering changes in the tech world caused by the financial malaise. One green tech company is cutting staff before they need more money. It's an ethanol start-up reducing its own burn rate. Detroit could have used this technique.
Meanwhile, it's more bad news for Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Dubai, Kuwait, Canada and other petroleum producers: lower prices expected all through next year. $25 per barrel?
Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily email newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.
Talkback
Chapter 11 is your friend
But of course the Messiah-elect and the Democrat majorities draw their strength from unions and have been hostile to big corporations for years. I'd see some sort of union bailout in the cards, exactly what shouldn't happen.
May not have time.
You can also be sure that even though, as you point out, Democrats are indebted to the unions, they still have to get re-elected and I am 100% opposed to funding as status quo, 100% for if they pre-package bankruptcy and/or, workers force the unions into serious concessions.
The current round of concession, we'll let you postpone some payments and you can stop paying laid off people full salary doesn't fix the problem, the cost/worker needs to go from $74/hour to $45-$50/hour. Think the UAW will allow that, probably let the companies fail before agreeing to that, driving all the workers right out of a job calling everyone's "bluff".
TripleII
Why no optiuon for guarantee funds after chapter 11.
"If the companies do have to go Chapter 11, we will be there to guarantee funds for operation and for when they emerge lean and ready for the future".
It lays the groundwork that they WILL survive, and despite Nancy and Harry wanting to desperately save the union, it squarely forces all the current contracts to die.
Here is a pre-packaged bankruptcy for you.
1) Pension fund for existing retired workers is passed on as it is going to be.
2) Any worker 50 or younger company match 401K (with conversion of existing pension to 401K). 50 and above, they get the choice.
3) 35% reduction in overall benefits.
4) 25% reduction in pay.
This brings the cost/hour down to $52/hour, only 10 more than foreign companies.
In the meantime, I would enforce the same CAFE standards on foreign vehicles since they get around the taxes selling the fuel efficient ones here.
Harry and Nancy can choke on it, too bad so sad.
$74/hour
$33 wage, reduced to $25/hour
$41 benefits, reduced to $27/hour.
They can massage that any way they want, earn $33/hour, reduce benefits even more, but anything that doesn't result in $50/hour all in cost, no way they survive.
TripleII
Will you buy a car from a bankrupt company?
Yes I will, if...
I can't see parting with my 98 Z71 though, best vehicle I have ever owned, but could see going for a Solstice if the price is right. :D
TripleII
To quote Bender: "We're boned."
Then what?
Are we supposed to believe that this will fix everything? That US consumers will ignore the fact that they've been laid off, and flock to dealerships to purchase their product, which will still be overpriced and underwhelming?
No... I suspect that if they are given money, they'll be back, wanting more, within a year. Maybe less.
Pouring good money after bad will solve nothing.
RE: American auto industry low on fuel and popular support
Argument: that is what the consumer wants...
Answer: since when has the advertizing dept. worried about what people want... they CREATE the "want"... they tell people this is what they need...
they could just as well have behaved responsibly years ago... retooling then? retooling now? hmmmmmm... think about it... they are in a mess now aren't they?