Chilling data from the Arctic

By | September 23, 2008, 4:56pm PDT

Less ice, more water. More swimming, fewer polar bears. That seems to be the conclusion from some recent Arctic data. Oh, and the ARctic is belching methane, a greenhouse gas far worse at warming the atmosphere than mere CO2.

The loss of Arctic ice, the lack of large ice floes where polar bears can rest or hunt, the expectation that the Arctic Ocean will get to iceless summers this century. None of this is new, but it continues to be news as the process accelerates.

Eventually the polar bear may go the way of the California Condor, a species entirely dependent on human largesse for survival. Like poodles and Wall Street investment bankers. Sadly the polar bears have no voice in their own fate.

Meanwhile, the methane situation threatens not just a single species, but anybody prone to heat rash or thirst. As the permafrost melts in the Arctic you only only get those picturesque images of villages where the buildings start to go cattywompus and sink into the mud. You also get methane belches. Large amounts of methane are produced deep in the soil as organic material slowly rots away in near freezing conditions. As the permafrost ice cap above those buried soils melts and softens, the methane rises to the surface and thence into the atmosphere. Here’s a fun little encounter with one methane plume rising from a typical Arctic lake.

Now there are methane digesters that can be built. Not sure they would do well in the muck of melted permafrost. But they bring their own unintended consequences, which have been felt in California. There methane digesters are used to capture the methane from huge cattle operations. A side effect: the digesters create their own nitrogen/oxygen compounds which are a smog component. Here’s a great cleantech opportunity. Burning or converting methane without any negative by-products.

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where are your references?
kevinrs1 Updated - 4th Oct 2008
A 7 month old blog, that references only an editorial, that has no references, and that contains "But if the sun shuts down, we've got a problem."?

Where's the nasa etc info you refer to?

Again, something like 98% of scientists agree that global warming is happening.
The other 2% are politically and financially motivated to contradict it. Paid by oil industry etc. Just like the "Scientists" who said smoking doesn't cause cancer.

If the earth is cooling, why is the ice melting?

If the earth is cooling, why is the ice melting?

If the earth is cooling, why is the ice melting?

maybe it would be cooling slightly, if it weren't for global warming, due to the solar cycle mentioned in the article you referred to, but it is a matter of observable fact that since 1970 when Satellite observation of the ice cap began, the ice is trending to less and less ice, comparing month to month. This means compare February to February, August to August etc.

Polar Bears etc cannot adapt to living on land in a matter of years or even only a few generations. They will be wildly conspicuous, overheated, and have no access to prey.
Polar bears hunt at places like breathing holes where seals etc surface. no ice, no place for polar bear to stand.
The seals will be gone too anyway, they will have no place to have seal pups, again they will have no camouflage on land.
Another issue against the idea that the animals will adapt, and use the rocky coast, is storms, and surf. there are whole islands that are likely to be washed away when they are exposed to the big surf that will develop with the ice gone.
Yes it has been hotter in the earth's history, that was also the time the oil and coal deposits were made. Some of the oil was formed from massive stinking stagnant ocean areas of algae that grew in the high CO2 environment, died and sank to the bottom. Now this is handicapped by a lack of dissolved iron in the seawater. It was oxidized and deposited in rock since then.

Yes it's been hotter, but not with civilization around to record it.
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So much hyperbole, so little fact
frgough 23rd Sep 2008
Polar bear populations are on the rise. It's stupid to think that
the polar bear is so unadaptable that it can't handle a decrease
in ice floes. They'll just hunt from shore. Life adapts.

BTW, the sea ice is the SECOND lowest on the record books.
This seems to be consistent with the global warming alarmism.
Hottest in 30 years, warmest winter in 50 years, second hottest
summer, second lowest ice count. Third worst hurricane
season. It's always been worse some time in the past, but we're
still supposed to be convinced that apocalypse is just a decade
away unless you become good little marxists.
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It's all about the money
AllKnowingAllSeeing Updated - 23rd Sep 2008
The little side thing to all of this is pure and simple: Money.

Now, I'm not saying I'm against cleaner, renewable energy, I'm all for it and it should be taken, and invested in, seriouslly.

But a little "apocalyptic" push from those who would make alot of money from it doesn't hurt their cause either.

Plus, did you ever wonder what many of these naysayers would be doing if they weren't collecting a paycheck each week from donations to their non-profit thinktanks?
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So where is your supporting
Linux User 147560 23rd Sep 2008
data? devil
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And your cites are...?
Reality-based 24th Sep 2008
"SECOND lowest on record" is like "fifth from the bottom" of your graduating class - it means there's an even lower level you can aspire too. Anyway, it seems 2008 was 2nd lowest because 2007 was exceptionally low.
See http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2008/09/arctic-sea-ice-recovered-in-2008.php#more

And what was your cite on polar-bear populations? Was it from a wide-ranging census, or from some local census in a coastal community that sees more bears because the bears have no place to go?
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Wake up!
0923UJ234OI 24th Sep 2008
Wow! I find it hard to actually believe there are soo many stupid people out there who still believe that global warming is a myth. Can they not see that almost all of the rhetoric from the neo-cons was just that, rhetoric. Wake up people! Science should not politicized! When over 98% of the worlds scientist in all fields of science are saying its happening. Then guess what? It is and I'm afraid that due to the politicization of global warming we (us) have missed the profitable boat of change. It should never have been stopped from the late 1970s. However, we have the biggest and best SUVs the world has ever seen.
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Lions, Tigers and Bears, Oh My!
rpwillia0@... 24th Sep 2008
Global warming, hmmm so say it is, some say it ain't. I do agree that we should be better stewards, but throwing money at the pack of thieves at the UN (and Al Gore) is not the way. If the GW crowd could make a good business case they would be better off than just to send money.

Can someone explain to me where those dumb ignorant people a thousand years ago got the dumb idea of a Northwest Passage, called Greenland what it is, and created the Piri Reis map of Antartica with the coastline hidden under the ice. Oh and let's not forget the mini Ice Age that caused Napoleon so much grief in Russia and Louis the 14th to get overthrown. Please explain that and maybe Global Warming will make more sense.
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Explanation
laura.b 24th Sep 2008
Can someone explain to me

Sure!
Here we go.

Northwest Passage
Two points here: Firstly, they thought sure as anything they would find a passage between North and South America as well, and what do you know? Just because it is thought something may exist doesn't mean that it does.

The NW Passage does indeed exist, and has been impassable without icebreakers until last year. The first time it was traversed that we know of was in the early 1900s, and that was due to greater knowledge of the area and the newer and easier-to-deal-with ice along the route they chose. The Vikings are the first that we know of to use the Passage, and they didn't cross all the way to the Pacific. They only made it as far as the eastern Coast of Canada, just off the western coast of Greenland. Nothing about the Northwest Passage indicates that it has ever been open to free travel and has, instead, always been at least partially blocked with ice. This example offers no rationale to discredit current global warming trends.

Greenland
The southern portion of Greenland is not covered in ice and during the summer makes one feel that the place is named very appropriately. It is also theorized that the name is actually a transcription error from the original Norse, which may have been "Gruntland" which translates to "Ground Land" as it is depicted on some early maps. In addition, the island was probably greener during the Medieval Warm Period, which coincides with Vikings' settling in the area. This example offers no rationale to discredit current global warming trends.

Piri Res
Not to understate how cool the early map is...but it's not very accurate (example: there are two sets of Virgin Islands and it includes the mythical island of Antilla) mainly because it was compiled from about 20 other maps and not through eye-witness account. But, we'll assume that it was in fact an eye-witness account of Antartica depicted on an earlier map (which is quite the assumption - nearly all maps had a theoretical southern landmass to balance out the northern portion of the planet, but no one actually knew of Antartica's existence until 1820), it is hardly accurate enough to take the coastline at face value and claim that it wasn't under a mile of ice at the time because the coastline doesn't match what we have now. The missing portion of the South American continent fits the mysterious landmass better, and the map states that "spring comes early" to the islands off that coast, which is not at all true of Antartic islands, but is true of South American ones. The map also states that the area is hot and contains a variety of snakes. Now, even if Antartica hadn't been covered in ice at that time, "hot" is simply not possible. Thus, Occam's Razor takes hold - it is far more likely that they didn't have a proper grasp of latitude and longitude and the bottom of the map is the southeast portion of South America than it is that they somehow managed to see below a mile of ice to the actual coastline of a continent no one had seen and simply forgot to mention finding it for 300 years. This example offers no rationale to discredit current global warming trends.

Little Ice Age
I can explain it if you'd like, but it doesn't make any difference, as it is not at all linked to man-made global warming.

No one contends that the Earth goes through periods of warm and cold on its own. That would ludicrous. The argument is that this period of warming is suspiciously rapid and happens to coincide a little too closely with the industrial revolution, the subsequent proliferation of automobiles, and the rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and does not fit into the pattern that the planet has exhibited for millions of years prior to our, shall we say, manipulation of our environment to be tossed off as not at all the responsibility of humans. Some of the warming is naturally caused. It would be hard to find a scientist that didn't think so. But that does not forgive human kind from our hand in quickening the process. We are not responsible for all of it. We are responsible for some of it. And we should be attempting to stop making it worse if we wish to stay on this planet. In the words of a great man (George Carlin): "The Earth will be fine. It's the humans that are f*cked."

You don't have to agree with it. But your lack of agreement doesn't mean that the concepts don't make sense.
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there were worse climates...
midenginedrift Updated - 24th Sep 2008
and that was when the earth was inhabitable.

Would you like to live on an inhabitable planet?

Your logic is comical: Oh it's only the SECOND worst so it OBVIOUSLY doesn't matter! PSHHHH! We don't have to worry about anything until it actually happens! It's like terrorism, why stop it before it strikes?! That way, when it does happen, we can all react (as this nation loves to do) by jumping to the other extremist end of the spectrum! Forget the middle ground compromise!!
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My questions
dpkingbluesguitar 24th Sep 2008
Are thus, just how long, in the hundreds, have we been monitoring global temperature anyway?
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Misunderstanding of concepts
laura.b Updated - 24th Sep 2008
We have been measuring global temperatures for quite some time with our scientific instruments, but we have historical temperature data gathered from tree ring analysis (spanning up to 2000 years), ice core samples (some of which span 800,000 years) and sediment cores (showing climate variation as far back as 40 million years), and human record when possible. These types of measurements are, of course, not as accurate or even as numerous as observational record. Patterns of change tend to be far more important than highly accurate temperature readings.

But to answer your question directly: the longest running temperature record made with instrumentation is the Central England temperature data series which was started in 1659 (so 350 years) and the longest running quasi-global record made with instrumentation was started in 1850 (so, 150 years).

Edited: Left out some crucial words. Didn't notice until a re-read.
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RE: Chilling data from the Arctic
dmbragger 24th Sep 2008
I believe in the simplest of soultions. While we are trying to get out "act together" on the environment; instead of just sitting back and watching this happen to the Polar Bears, why not put some man-made floats throughout the waters that the bears use? We have created this, we should fix this.
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Wahh?????? Build floats????
Takalok 24th Sep 2008
Floats?? We're talking about ice flows the size of cities. And in the winter, when the ice does freeze back up, your floats will be crushed like a wet paper towel.

Besides, we didn't create this. All four major temperature tracking organizations, Hadley, NASA's GISS, the UAH, and the RSS, are all showing DECLINING temperatures.

The earth is presently COOLING, not warming, and as a result of SOLAR ACTIVITY.
http://www.dailytech.com/Solar+Activity+Diminishes+Researchers+Predict+Another+Ice+Age/article10630.htm
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where are your references?
kevinrs1 Updated - 4th Oct 2008
A 7 month old blog, that references only an editorial, that has no references, and that contains "But if the sun shuts down, we've got a problem."?

Where's the nasa etc info you refer to?

Again, something like 98% of scientists agree that global warming is happening.
The other 2% are politically and financially motivated to contradict it. Paid by oil industry etc. Just like the "Scientists" who said smoking doesn't cause cancer.

If the earth is cooling, why is the ice melting?

If the earth is cooling, why is the ice melting?

If the earth is cooling, why is the ice melting?

maybe it would be cooling slightly, if it weren't for global warming, due to the solar cycle mentioned in the article you referred to, but it is a matter of observable fact that since 1970 when Satellite observation of the ice cap began, the ice is trending to less and less ice, comparing month to month. This means compare February to February, August to August etc.

Polar Bears etc cannot adapt to living on land in a matter of years or even only a few generations. They will be wildly conspicuous, overheated, and have no access to prey.
Polar bears hunt at places like breathing holes where seals etc surface. no ice, no place for polar bear to stand.
The seals will be gone too anyway, they will have no place to have seal pups, again they will have no camouflage on land.
Another issue against the idea that the animals will adapt, and use the rocky coast, is storms, and surf. there are whole islands that are likely to be washed away when they are exposed to the big surf that will develop with the ice gone.
Yes it has been hotter in the earth's history, that was also the time the oil and coal deposits were made. Some of the oil was formed from massive stinking stagnant ocean areas of algae that grew in the high CO2 environment, died and sank to the bottom. Now this is handicapped by a lack of dissolved iron in the seawater. It was oxidized and deposited in rock since then.

Yes it's been hotter, but not with civilization around to record it.
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RE: Chilling data from the Arctic
rkoenn 24th Sep 2008
The thing I notice from all the folks who say global warming is bunk is their selfishness (I would bet you are Republican as well and love oil). If it means I can't drive my Hummer and live my wanton life style than it must not be true. When there are several billion people on this planet, when they all desire a life style similar to our decadent US lifestyle, when all they care about is me, me, me, then you can expect the planet to suffer. First it will be the bears but rising temps and rising water will affect humans in the not too distant future as well. It is time for the race to come to its' senses and take some personal responsibility to prevent it. The science is there to prove it. Anyone can simply ignore it or dispute it so they don't have to deal with it. Kind of like how this country has been doing concerning oil and energy for the last 35 years.
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RE: Chilling data from the Arctic
jwreesefam@... 24th Sep 2008
I would like to see the data that proves people are responsible for the temperature and not just a climate cycle. I have not seen anything that proves beyond doubt that it is caused by man. I don't know if you remember, but in the 1970s they were saying we were headed for another ice age. Now they say we are going to burn up. PROVE IT!!!
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Data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) has indicated a dramatic increase in sea ice extent in the Arctic regions. The growth over the past year covers an area of 700,000 square kilometers: an amount twice the size the nation of Germany.
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Not very smart for a scientist
Dr_Zinj 24th Sep 2008
She got lucky that she and her group weren't killed.

First of all, violent outgassing of a lake can totally remove the oxygen in the vicinity of the lake; resulting the asphyxiation of all animal life, including humans. It's happened several times around volcanic lakes in around the world. They really should have had O2 detectors and scuba systems as protetive gear.

Secondly, violent outgassing in a lake can significantly lower the density of the water to the point that it will not support boats or bodies, in which case they sink and everyone drowns. Further, the displaced water flows back into the area the gas was, creating a strong undertow, which can pull boats and bodies to the bottom of the lake, where everyone drowns.
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RE: Chilling data from the Arctic
dpkingbluesguitar 24th Sep 2008
Do you know what the difference is between a white bear and a black bear and a brown bear? The adjective. Further there was a white bear in my backyard this morning. Also, let Mama Bear live on land for a few thousand years and then see if she's so smart. Also, keep a stinkin' icecap just for one Bear? Not to mention, You like white bears so much why don't you marry one?
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The Arctic hasn't had ice for most of time.
davetracer@... 24th Sep 2008
That's from John McPhee's "Annals of the Former World". McPhee is interviewing a USGS (Geological Survey) wizard. She says, "Through most of time, the earth has been without ice caps. 20,000 years ago, when there was much more ice than there is now, the sea was 300 feet lower."
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RE: Chilling data from the Arctic
jgkov 24th Sep 2008
Well you can't show real data and logic to the alarmists as all they know is emotionalism.

Indeed the sun is the source of heat and the most important element in our climate, though mostly ignored by the alarmists who are making a profit from their new "GW" religion. Of course, as with any religion, one must not question the clergy or present facts that fly in the face of their dogma.

After all, wasn't it good ole Alagore who so proudly stated "the science is done", translation "just send me your donations".
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RE: Chilling data from the Arctic
jmp010948@... 24th Sep 2008
I was talking to a scientist up a Johns Hopkins University and he said that "global warming is a good thing to have between ice ages." He doesn't disagree that the planet is warming as it has so many times before. However, in his opinion, any man made involvement is grossly overplayed. If you compare mans' contribution to green house gasses to natural sources, it is like comparing an ant?s fart to an elephant?s.
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RE: Chilling data from the Arctic
sm209@... 25th Sep 2008
As I understand it, some cooling did occur in the 70's as a result of pollution in the upper atmosphere reducing the power of the sun reaching the earth's surface (Those were the days of acid rain etc). Secondly, the satellite data providing the data to show a wider cooling was proved to be faulty when it was discovered that the orbit was reducing year on year. This, when recalculated, confirmed the cooling caused by pollution but no more. Oh, and please don't argue for more pollution as a cure, as I'm sure that most of you are not old enough to have experienced the filth left in nasal passages (and lungs?) after a day in a polluted city such as I have experienced in London in the past (Thankfully, unrecognisably cleaner now).

I have also read the stuff on solar cooling through the lack of sun spots. Hopefully this will counter our folly, which even the anti brigade have now accepted IS happening. The 'antis' have now turned to arguing the degree to which it will affect us, thus do nothing, rather than coming up with alternative solutions. Remember that the US, which has less than 5% of the world population, consumes 23% of its energy and more than twice that per head of population than we do in the UK. The average of the 18 top consuming nations is 5 tonnes per head per year (Oil equivalent). If this was extended to the world's population, we would need roughly 36.5 times more oil than we are producing now (Based on figures published on the internet and in purely oil terms). This is obviously not going to happen. There is a growing energy need and a desire of the vast bulk of the world's population to improve their standards of living, thus to consume more (Merely the increase in meat consumption is massively increasing CO2 yields, 1kg rice compared to 1kg beef).

This is a serious issue. We need to understand where we're going and what will be the consequences of it.

The alternatives are to wait until crops (Our FOOD supply) fail and there is widespread drought and in other places widespread flooding due to climate change. When the cost of food rises exorbitantly so that millions of less fortunates in the first world, let alone the second and third world, starve. When millions turn north out of a failing Africa into Europe, or Central America into the US. What do we do to protect ourselves? Kill them all?
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Update from Anchorage
sgtgary@... 26th Sep 2008
Just posting this update from the Anchorage NWS Forecaster:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1225 PM AKDT TUE SEP 23 2008

...SEA ICE TO BEGIN ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ALASKA NORTH COAST...

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ALASKA COASTS OF THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS ARE 3 TO 8 DEGREES CELSIUS COLDER TODAY THAN AT THE SAME TIME IN 2007. WATER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 DEGREES COLDER THIS YEAR THAN LAST YEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KAKTOVIK HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 2 DEGREES CELSIUS. WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE BRINGING
COLDER AIR OVER THESE AREAS LATE THIS WEEK. IN 2007 SIGNIFICANT SEA ICE HAD FORMED ALONG THE ALASKA NORTH COAST BY THE 7TH OF OCTOBER. IN 2008 SEA ICE WILL RETURN EARLIER TO ALASKA WATERS.

SEA ICE IN THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS HAS REACHED ITS MINIMUM FOR 2008. NEW ICE WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE BEAUFORT SEA THIS WEEK AND WILL START TO FORM ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OFF THE ALASKA NORTH COAST BY THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SEA ICE WILL DEVELOP LONG THE ALASKA COAST FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KAKTOVIK BY THE 4TH OF OCTOBER. COASTAL WATERS EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY MAY HAVE ICE CONCENTRATIONS GREATER THAN 4 TENTHS AS SOON AS THE 28TH OR 29TH OF SEPTEMBER.

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