Crude oil: OPEC cartel? Speculation? Unlimited demand?

Summary: I am not sure there is a simple explanation for what's happening with crude oil prices. As with any unprecedented run-up in price on anything from Enron stock to tulip futures, there is always a mix of greed, speculation, widespread fear or eagerness, supply issues, etc.

I am not sure there is a simple explanation for what's happening with crude oil prices. As with any unprecedented run-up in price on anything from Enron stock to tulip futures, there is always a mix of greed, speculation, widespread fear or eagerness, supply issues, etc. Please note the price of air and water have not radically altered because generally we believe them to be in plentiful supply.

Finally, there's been some exploration of the financial rigging behind the full sails that carry the ship of oil-price into ever new waters. Low and behold, there's been massive de-regulation in the US, allowing ever more wealthy players to get into the crude oil futures speculation business.

Fantastic short-term gains to be had right now. Long-term the high oil price is driving more and more investment into alternative energy tech, thereby possibly hastening the decline of the oil industry's economic stranglehold on the planet. You have to savor the ironies where you find them.

Topic: Tech Industry

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  • Why is Crude Oil Price so High?

    Why is the Dollar so low?
    bailey_dan228
    • "Why is Crude Oil Price so High?"

      Ask the folks at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). They are the ones setting the prices...NOT OPEC.
      IT_Guy_z
      • but you can't equal the brokers with greedy OPEC

        the brokers are responsible and patriotic Americans that look after the best interest of USA, unlike OPEC.
        All the money they make on NYMEX are in good hands here and making the America more powerfull. ;)
        Linux Geek
        • ????

          I certainly hope you are making a joke.
          chrome_slinky@...
    • The Dollar, more than just inflation.

      Many people believe that inflation is the reason the dollar is less valuable. This is only partially true. Ever since the US went off the gold standard (as did the rest of the world), currency has been valued based on the average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the year. The US dollar only seems less valuable in comparison to the Euro. Which really isn't all that bad, considering that the Euro is essentially the combination of all the GDPs of the European Union. It is steadily increasing, as ours decreases, due to foreign labor. So, when you look at it, we're not doing half bad.
      admiralkymia
      • is the only way to keep US economy relevant

        Today, to stay relevant you have to export more than import.
        To do that, in the short run devaluating the currency works great: cheap labor in the states and foreign exporters and lenders getting the shaft on existing contracts.
        In the long run the effects are devasting:
        increase prices on commodities (like oil), and unwillingless to lend money and invest in US from abroad.
        Since this administration is closing to the end soon, they use this last buble of air and pass the cost on the next government.
        Linux Geek
  • RE: Crude oil: OPEC cartel? Speculation? Unlimited demand?

    It's pretty easy. OPEC is made up mostly (not all mind you), of countries that are not to fond of the US. That alone isn't enough justification as to why prices are going up. The fact that OPEC itself has only come out with "Supply is low" as a reason is a load of balogne! Ya, speculation might have something to do with it, but there had to be some obvious signs of money making potential (i.e. increase in price) even before they start buying. We are fighting a war against terror. Most of the countries involved in OPEC support terror. We are making war for them expensive, so to recoup the loss, they raise the price on gas. We buy gas, they buy bullets. In a sense we are paying for their war against us. If Greenpeace would just bite the bullet like everybody else and let us tap the largest oil reserve in the world (Alaska), we could put the terrorists back in their tents and not only lower the price of gas, but win the war on terror. End soapbox transmission. I'm sure somebody's going to be mad at me for this.
    admiralkymia
    • You're just saying what quite a few people believe...

      ...but more people don't speak up because of the fear of
      being labeled unpatriotic towards the war.

      If one good thing can come out of this, it's that alternative
      forms of energy are being looked at more seriously now.
      Unfortunately, it takes situations like this to make it all
      happen.
      russguill
    • You're big on > symptoms < only

      I suggest you stop looking at the symptoms and start understanding the underlying causes.

      OPEC is made up of the same folks today as it was years ago. They =USED TO= treat us preferentially and with kid gloves, selling us the cheapest crude on the planet, to the envy of all. You do recall this, right? As time went on, we turned our M.E. client state we carved out (Israel) into a nuclear powerhouse right in their midst, with practically unlimited financial bankrolling, all courtesy of Uncle Sam (my tax dollars and yours). This goes on to this day.

      A lot of the high-tech and expansion allowing "incendiaries" we've been providing Israel for decades end up getting lobbed on Middle Easterners' heads (the untold story, since you know the other "inbound!" side all too well). So as time went on, the OPEC boys got frustrated with the Americans they had for so long treated deferentially, and with remarkably golden gloves.

      Then as we brought our invading armies to their part of the world, to remake their corner of it in our convenient image, they got further frustrated. The more zealous and reactionary of them lashed back directly, no longer aiming their anger at the tail (Israel) but at the head (USA) of what they saw as an insatiable dragon. And our reason for meddling in their affairs, and destroying those we deemed "unworthy"? Why, to protect the sacrosanct interests of Israel and Big Oil. Period. Only it backfires now and again, doesn't it? Yet plenty of Yanks keep waving the flag, while wrapping themselves in deluded righteousness.

      This is your so-called "war against terror," synonymous in its mislabeling as were those mysteriously abstract "weapons of mass destruction" (talk about vaporware), which ironically, only WE and our pals in ISRAEL possess in reality. Funny, isn't it? The way we choose to see and then label things. And so we Americans wasted a ton of money and a lot of young men's lives to dispatch with Saddam and his regime. And what do we have to show for it? 4000+ dead G.I.'s, gas prices scaling the stratosphere, and a crater-ridden Iraq in far more unstable shape than when Hussein ruled it!

      This is beyond industrializing the entire planet as quick as we can (c/o our friends, the international capitalists), so EVERYBODY overproduces and craves oil. We dare not forget the massive populations of the third world nations, to include China and India, thus making crude more scarce - and costly - to distribute to all in need. The junkie versus dealer principle in full and unholy bloom.

      As for the capitalist speculators, they are a "legally" criminal class who serve no function but to leech off of legitimate enterprise, and the hard work of others. They fuel the price of crude even more than OPEC does. Speculation should be outlawed, just as unregulated usury was ages ago!

      As for us not being able to tap the largest oil reserve in the world in Alaska, wake up! This has little to do with Greenpeace, which at best is but a bitsy and insignificant flea in the government's ear. The main reason we resist tapping it - Republican and Democratic led administrations alike - is because these constitute STRATEGIC RESERVES. Meaning, our last assured draw, and the last go-to we have as a nation. Better to tap every other source and deplete the other guys' holdings before we hit our own last 'ace in the hole.'

      But since we are all slaves to oil now and are not about to change our grease slickened ways, we soon will have no choice but to exploit these caches. If coal and nuclear energy alternatives could be more effectively tapped, we may not even need to pull from those life-sustaining reserves. This is more where Greenpeace (et al) raises their over-reactive ruckus far more detrimentally (and eventually will be ignored, as things get more bleak for all).

      Ok, there's the other side to your original soapbox transmission, this time from the smog of SoCal. Don't get too rapped up in that red, white and blue robe. A lot of it amounts to bull these days, especially in the modern era where this country hardly resembles the America-first, debt-free promise it once was. You can thank the Feds, international financiers and corporate raiders by the score for a lot of that. Money grubbers owe no allegiance to anything except jack upon more jack. Capitalist heroes, ha! More of the joys and fallout from rampant and uncontrolled corporate globalization.
      klumper
      • Oil price

        agreee with you 100%.
        vsssarma
        • Glad to see some aren't fooled

          There may be a ray of hope after all.
          klumper
  • And let them lose their shirts (the speculators)

    We are in a "greater fool" runup, much like the internet boom, and when the walls come crashing down, I will be there cheering as they lose their shirts. The oil companies are laughing. They say they are "helpless" yet the cost of local sources doesn't cost $130 a barrel. Their costs are fixed, but OPEC sets the prices and they have to go with the flow?

    If all the US companies said we will sell all of OUR oil at $70/barrel, they would sell every drop and you can bet OPEC would come down dramatically. Of course they won't, they are powerless and have to go with the flow.

    Long term, my company, in an effort to go green, it is no corporate policy to allow 3 days/week telecommute. It is working, even at 10AM, you can get parking close to the building. Large SUVs are simply not selling, and they are killing their own long term market. I have seen 5 smart cars (South Texas) in the last few months. I have never seen one before the start of this year.

    Yes, the pinch is hurting all of us now, but long term, we will break free, and again, when there are no more greater fools, we will see the ultra wealthy take a beating.

    TripleII

    P.S. I am down to less than 1 tank per two weeks of gas, when the price drops again, I'll stay at that level.
    TripleII-21189418044173169409978279405827
    • ...

      Rock on brother! ]:)
      Linux User 147560
    • Those smart cars

      don't get appreciably better mileage
      than what you got in small cars 30 years
      ago. Back then a Rabbit, or Horizon, or
      Corolla all got over 40 mpg on the
      highway.

      Today's cars, on average, weigh about
      40 to 50 percent more than the same
      sized cars of 30 years ago.

      This ridiculous Smart For2 weighs 1800
      lbs and has a 70 hp engine. A '75
      Rabbit weighed 1900 lbs, had a 71 hp
      engine, was fast as anything and had
      FAR more space in the car. It was 50
      inched longer than the For2.

      The Smart is rated at 33/41 mpg. The
      75 Rabbit was rated at exactly the same.
      I had one. The mileage rating was
      accurate.

      Ah! Progress!
      j.m.galvin
      • I figured higher.

        I know nothing about smart cars, but only 40 mpg seems a little low for such a small car. In any case, I am sure they replaced a big SUV (probably the highest demand is from the worst pinched).

        With telecommuting, being more conscious about consolidating shopping, driving a little slower ( ;D ), I have probably cut my consumption in half, meaning overall, I have to thank them for jacking the prices up so I save money (back when it wasw $2.50/gallon).

        TripleII
        TripleII-21189418044173169409978279405827
    • Smart Cars

      Were not even avalable until this year...and the waiting list is now up to 18 months, so you won't b seeing lots more of them soon.

      The price speculation on oil is "managed" through NYMEX which is a thoroughly AMERICAN institution based in New York City. Of course, Saudis can not only only sell crude, they can then use the American dollars and European Euros they collect to speculate on the oil futures, and have plenty left over for Bin Laden or whomever they choose to have fight their battles for them.
      atowhee
  • RE: Crude oil: OPEC cartel? Speculation? Unlimited demand?

    Double dip reduction of the dollar through circulation and debt leads to unstable economy. Add that the EU and others have managed their trade given our situation and you have a weak dollar.
    bailey_dan228
  • RE: Crude oil: OPEC cartel? Speculation? Unlimited demand?

    The rise in oil prices is due to (a) Negligible gap between demand and supply (b) Bourses and traders like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Citi Group, Goldman Sachs, Glencore, etc. trading in oil futures and (c) continued collapse of US Dollar.

    Solution ? USA to reduce consumption drastically.
    vsssarma
  • RE: Crude oil: OPEC cartel? Speculation? Unlimited demand?

    US has a population of 4 to 5% of the word's population. It has 2.5% of world's oil resources. But it consumes oil at 25% of the world's consumption. The per-capita GDP is quite high but the oil price is much lower than countries of similar per-capita GDP like UK or European states. The economy is based on cars and gas guzzlers. People travel huge distances mainly alone to go to work and back. Auto Industry runs the politics. Conservation is scoffed at. This is the reason for the high oil consumption of USA and hence that of the world.

    People tend to justify the high oil consumption to high GDP. But then while GDP is important, the content of the same is more important in the case of oil consumption which is more related to manufacturing activity as compared to services. The share of manufacturing in GDP od USA is only to the extent of 10 - 12% as much of manufacturing shifted away to China and other developing countries.

    In this situation, people as well as Govt. should accept very high oil prices with a view to drastically cut down consumption which will increase the gap between availability and demand.

    When Saddam was in power, he made an offer to USA by which he offered oil at low prices to USA in return for help in getting rid of sanctions. But then the hawks in Bush administration like Cheney went ahead with their agenda of capturing Iraq in the hope of getting oil at zero price (they wanted to steal oil from Iraq) and hence the cooked up intelligence reports and the war. This war has increased the oil demand and also the uncertainity over supply. Further talk of Iran war is compounding the crisis as the total supply is now at 85 million barrels per day which is equal to the demand of 85 million barrels per day. Iran war is bound to reduce oil supply and increase oil demand which will take oil price to some 300 dollars a barrel as the traders and cartels are bound to make a killing.
    vsssarma