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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
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48% see themselves running Windows XP in 2014

By | May 2, 2008, 7:24am PDT

According to a poll I ran here on Monday, fully 48% (or over 2,000 respondents) see themselves running Windows XP in 2014. Another 10% expect to be running XP in a limited sense. How viable will it be to run an OS that is over a decade old?

Running XP in 2014

Now, I’m going to come right out and say that I’m already skeptical that so many of you will be running Windows XP in 2014. In timescale terms, this is equivalent to running Windows 95 now - and I don’t know many people who are still doing that. XP’s already feeling long in the tooth to me and the idea that I’ll still running it in five or six years time just doesn’t appeal to me.

But there are going to be technical challenges facing those wanting to hold on to the security blanket that XP offers. These are the 4GB RAM limit that 32-bit offers and the gradual shift from 32-bit to 64-bit. When I shifted over from XP to Vista in November 2006 I didn’t really see many benefits. In fact, thanks to the fact that most drivers were still at the fetus stage of maturity (and shovelfuls of baked-in Microsoft bugs), performance and reliability took a dip. Over the months that followed the situation got a lot better as I was drip fed new drivers and Microsoft released patches and updates. However, the biggest performance boost that I’ve seen from Vista was when I moved from Vista 32-bit to Vista 64-bit. Finally, all the hassles of migrating to Vista felt worthwhile. I believe that the desire to break free of the 4GB addressable memory limit on 32-bit will become a powerful motivator for many over the coming years. After all, most motherboards now support in excess of 4GB of RAM, and RAM is cheap.

For me, breaking the 4GB barrier was a refreshing experience, and after you’ve experienced a PC with 8GB or more of RAM in it you no longer feel the need to mess about disabling services, defragging all the time and trying to squeeze more performance out of the system by optimizing the registry and nonsense like that.

I’ve made a note on my calendar to post a poll in 2014 so I can see just how many of you are running XP.

Thoughts?

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Topics

32-bit, Microsoft Windows Vista, RAM, Microsoft Windows XP, Microsoft Windows Vista (Longhorn), Microsoft Windows, Operating Systems, Software, Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

Talkback Most Recent of 171 Talkback(s)

  • The old saying is if it works why upgrade
    Just because you have a new OS doesn't mean your pc can handle it. Why upgrade if your PC and XP is doing the job you want?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Randalllind
    2nd May 2008
  • Why take global computing seriously
    when you can use Noddysoft to order a pizza !!!
    ZDNet Gravatar
    fr0thy2
    2nd May 2008
  • the issue becomes
    repairing a decade old system when a hardware failure occurs, and it will eventually without exception.

    Even getting an IDE drive in 6 years will probably be tough.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    rtk
    2nd May 2008
  • upgrade hardware, not software... XP doesn't require IDE...
    I know this as our household's main machine is running XP, and it was installed on a SATA drive.

    Sure, hardware will fail, but it's still replaceable. The software, well, if it's not broke, why pay to replace it? a hard drive is still cheaper than a new machine.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    shryko
    5th May 2008
  • Hard drives aren't the issue...
    Sure, hardware will fail, but it's still replaceable. The software, well, if it's not broke, why pay to replace it? a hard drive is still cheaper than a new machine.

    The REAL issue will be other components - such as video cards and other devices that require DRIVERS.

    By 2014, Windows 7 will likely to have been released. And if Microsoft keeps it's word, it's successor (Windows 7.5 or 8 or whatever they're going to call it) will likely also have been released. What version of DirectX will be included? 11? 12? Will they be backwardly compatible with 9..?

    Also, by that time, who knows exactly what the hardware landscape is going to look like. We've got quad core chips now - by then, how many are we going to have? 16? 32? 64? And how many GB of RAM will they support? Are we even going to be able to get a motherboard with only 2 - 4 GB of RAM? Are we going to have some new fangled connector - USB 3 perhaps? Maybe 100 GB networking?

    Honestly, I couldn't tell you what the answers to those questions are. I don't have a TARDIS handy and my crystal ball is quite hazy. But, I can almost guarantee that whatever the state of computing will be years from now, it will be get harder to find drivers for XP as time goes on. The past 25 odd years have proven how quickly things do change.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Wolfie2K3
    5th May 2008
  • buy some backup harware now, on the cheap
    at places like tiger direct...

    buy a nic or two for 20 bucks, a mid grade sound and video card for 30 bucks, and a few ata/eide hard drives

    and you should be good to go for another 10 years.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    pcguy777
    5th May 2008
  • Have you driven an Oldmobile today?
    Just goes to prove Microsoft is stuck in the 20th century. if you really want to know where the future is, look no further than Mac OS X. That's a real 21st century operating system.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    gtdworak
    5th May 2008
  • I totally agree
    I?m going to come right out and say that I?m already skeptical that so many of you will be running Windows XP in 2014

    Do not forget, these polls are also open to the Anti-Microsoft crowd; many may say that they will be running XP in 2014 only as another way to "prove" that "Vista is crap", in truth using something altogether different.
    maybe even voting numerous times to onec again "prove" the point.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    GuidingLight
    2nd May 2008
  • Still, in 1995, there were about zero that were even thinking about using
    Win3.1 for even another year. Everybody was switching in mass. This is quite different. By the standard of Win95, Vista is a complete dud.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    DonnieBoy
    2nd May 2008
  • And you prove my point, entirelly
    You openlly complain (to the point of fabrication) that you hate Microsoft, and that you are 100 percent Linux all the way.

    Why would I believe that you actually responded to the poll with "No"?

    You don't use it, so why did you respond to the poll?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    GuidingLight
    2nd May 2008
  • Don't Believe Us
    Please don't believe a load of fringe dwelling Mac Zealots
    then. Give Adrian credit for his skepticism. Then promptly
    give him credit for the other things he's doing to validate
    Vista. This includes avoiding the review of peered and
    competitive systems. Then further endorse adding 8 gigs
    of RAM to a corpulent mistake to do what an iMac can do
    with 1. Go on to join him in a chorus of "Apple is too
    expensive", just to round out your willful ignorance of
    anything that exists outside the harem's chamber.

    If naysayers input is untrustworthy, your input sings
    backup for PC repairmen trying to protect their careers.
    This goes both ways. If Vista needs 8 to be responsive, it
    has failed almost unqualifiedly. No one but the author of
    this blog has offered up that little tidbit. Take it up with
    him.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Harry Bardal
    2nd May 2008
  • Message has been deleted.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    fr0thy2
    5th May 2008
    • Flagged
  • Message has been deleted.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    jamesrayg
    12th May 2008
    • Flagged
  • 512meg vista responsive?
    ridiculous
    ZDNet Gravatar
    stevey_d
    3rd May 2008
  • The the Vista machine I've got must be an hallucination
    I have a 512 Vista machine performing as my Window Media Center, Web access and downloads, as well as occasionally playing games on it.

    Seems to work fine - sorry to contradict your fabrications with facts.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    tonymcs@...
    4th May 2008
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