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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are

By | January 5, 2012, 3:27pm PST

Summary: There’s nowhere for the e-reader to evolve to … except into a tablet.

Over on The Loop, Matt Alexander claims that e-readers like the Kindle and Nook are essentially doomed to being niche devices because there’s really nowhere for the technology to evolve. I agree.

Here’s the key paragraph:

The concept of electronic paper, to me, sounds dazzlingly futuristic, but here I am calling it doomed. The e-reader’s purpose is, ostensibly, to serve as a stopgap measure until both e-ink itself and LCDs evolve to the point of intersection — and that does not seem too terribly far off. Tablets are losing weight with each iteration, prices are lowering, battery lives are lengthening, and soon, everything that makes e-readers wonderful products will be assimilated into other pieces of technology.

BOOM!

Alexander sums up why e-readers are doomed. Not only is there a strong tendency for stand alone gadgets (e-readers, GPS receivers, MP3 players, etc) to converge into single devices, but there’s really nowhere for e-readers too go in the long run. Think about it:

  • Storage capacity isn’t really a big issue, especially with cloud storage.
  • Battery life isn’t an issue (unless there’s some big shift in battery technology).
  • Screen size is ideal as it is at around 7-inch, so there’s no room for it to grow of shrink.
  • There’s not going to be an ‘HD’ e-reader.

The only thing left for e-readers to do is to evolve into tablets. Once we get a screen that can handle print as well as it can handle video, then e-readers will really only sell on the basis of price (they’ll be cheaper than tablets).

Another thing that I see driving his evolution of the e-reader is that books as we know them will also evolve. Sure, the printed word will never die, but ebooks offer scope for more than just words - sound, video, animation, live web links, over the air updates - and these features require not an e-reader, but a full-blown tablet.

The e-reader as we know it today is the first step. It’s little more than a digital paperback book. Just as books have evolved, the next step is for the content to evolve. And that evolved content will be far more suited to a tablet than it will be to the e-reader as we know it today.

Poll

Are e-readers doomed?

Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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Re: I guess you missed the part where Adrian said the ideal screen size
StandardPerson 17th Jan
@baggins_z

No, I didn't miss the claim that 7" is the ideal size: I just think it's wrong, even for novels.

I also use my iPad for reading text in other forms, including magazines.

You cannot read the Scientific American or Wired or any similar magazine on a black & white screen; you must have colour.

Furthermore, while magazines in the more size common formats fit onto an iPad's screen quite well, they do not fit onto a 7" screen: reading magazines on smaller 7" screen, even with colour, is an endless exercise in zooming and scrolling.


A 7" screen may be fine for text-only novels, but it is a pretty bad fit for people, like me, who want all their novels, magazines, journal articles and texts consolidated in one convenient place.

This flexibility more than makes up for the slight increase in weight and having to remember to charge up the iPad more regularly.
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I don't like to read for any substantial length of time on an LCD, so as long as they have e-ink devices, I'll use those for reading and tablets for the rest.
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
markbn Updated - 5th Jan
@Adrian: I doubt you would have written this blog post had Apple not SUCKED so badly in the e-book market.

Yeah, my $79 ebook reader is doomed, so I will spend $500 for Adrian's favorite company's tablet, the iPad. No thank you.
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@markbn This isn't about the fruit. I have an Amazon Kindle Fire. I like the size (7") and the price (USD 200). I'd rather have that than an e-ink e-reader. It's about color, and it's about convergence, watching movies from Netflix and Amazon and shows from Hulu, or reading Wikipedia.
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@markbn the iPad makes a very nice e-book reader. The Apple e-Book shop, on the other hand, has a very poor, limited selection of current books, which is odd given the way the iPad was touted as the ideal device for textbook delivery.

(There are a huge number of free, out-of-copyright books to choose from, but we can't really thank Apple for this.)

That said, you can always download the Kindle software onto an iPad and have the best of both worlds.
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@markbn
+1
@baggins_z

No, I didn't miss the claim that 7" is the ideal size: I just think it's wrong, even for novels.

I also use my iPad for reading text in other forms, including magazines.

You cannot read the Scientific American or Wired or any similar magazine on a black & white screen; you must have colour.

Furthermore, while magazines in the more size common formats fit onto an iPad's screen quite well, they do not fit onto a 7" screen: reading magazines on smaller 7" screen, even with colour, is an endless exercise in zooming and scrolling.


A 7" screen may be fine for text-only novels, but it is a pretty bad fit for people, like me, who want all their novels, magazines, journal articles and texts consolidated in one convenient place.

This flexibility more than makes up for the slight increase in weight and having to remember to charge up the iPad more regularly.
@baggins_z

No, I didn't miss the claim that 7" is the ideal size: I just think it's wrong, even for novels.

I also use my iPad for reading text in other forms, including magazines.

You cannot read the Scientific American or Wired or any similar magazine on a black & white screen; you must have colour.

Furthermore, while magazines in the more size common formats fit onto an iPad's screen quite well, they do not fit onto a 7" screen: reading magazines on smaller 7" screen, even with colour, is an endless exercise in zooming and scrolling.


A 7" screen may be fine for text-only novels, but it is a pretty bad fit for people, like me, who want all their novels, magazines, journal articles and texts consolidated in one convenient place.

This flexibility more than makes up for the slight increase in weight and having to remember to charge up the iPad more regularly.
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Just like many single-purpose devices such as cameras (Flip / Kodak anyone?) and cassette/CD/MP3 players, dedicated eReaders will eventually die and be replaced by ever lighter, more power-frugal tablets of various sizes and styles.

The one big thing inhibiting eReader's immediate decline is the eInk screen. Reading an eInk screen outdoors or in a brightly lit place is a wonderful experience. Doing the same with a nice glossy illuminated tablet is a nightmare.

The day someone works out how to lay an eInk layer over a normal *LED display so that one can switch to "reading mode", that'll be the end of the eReader.
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@bitcrazed Many of the things you mentioned are not doomed, such as cameras. Are you going to have tablets with large, detachable, interchangeable lenses? No? Then the camera isn't doomed. The cassette player evolved into the CD player which evolved into the MP3 player, so it's still around as well.
@jgm@... Pro-level devices aren't doomed because there will always be a market for them. But the point-and-shoot cameras that are the bread and butter of the camera producers will soon be toast as smartphones with 8-megapixel or better integrated cameras displace them. I haven't even picked up a digital camera in the two years since I began using an iPhone 3GS. The convenience of the iPhone alone (always handy in my pocket vs. always lying in a drawer for my Nikon camera with a better image sensor) made it a no-brainer for me, and now that I have a 4S with equal or better image quality, the camera is being shipped off to gazelle.com for recycling.
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Someone jogging with a 7" tablet strapped to their arm (maybe they could strap it to their chest? )
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@bitcrazed
At the core of your argument is the fallacy that Starcastle's ineptness makes Emerson, Lake, and Palmer a better band. The eInk technology does provide a better outdoor reading experience. Full stop.

The other fallacy you invoke is that one use case trumps all others. Yes. Every lunch, we all can see just how many people do the only reading they do all day outdoors.

I argued below - way, way below - that the doom is not so impending, so just as though people who are reading outside (that'd be me using the iPad in the shade, adapting to its limitations) are not concerned with ozone depletion or the eventual expansion of the sun into a red dwarf, there's time to thrive at the market with a dedicated e-reader. Shoot, e-readers make the classic blade and razor business model, no?
@bitcrazed I think you hit it right on the spot. I've have not heard anything about the ability of the new "tablets" in the area of reading in sunlight or daylight. That is one of the things I love about my Kobo.
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Just as monitors don't compete directly with TV sets, and mobile phones don't compete with PCs, ebook readers won't compete with tablets - at least not in the foreseable future.

That's because with current battery and display technologies, compromises must be made regarding display technology and processing power. Devices that are able to play and display multimedia content in acceptable quality just cost way too much and eat up too much power to compete with ebook readers.

That's where the latters' advantage lies: in price and in battery life - and that won't change till there's a huge jump in battery capacity and a heavy drop in LED display prices. The latter will obviously change in a few years, but I see no real advancements regarding battery technology to come in the next few years, or even until the end of the decade.

So, ebook readers don't have to evolve - and actually the very day they will be able to do so (eg. "evolve", meaning increase processing power and display quality, without sacrifying battery life and price) will mean their end. Not the lack of said "evolution".

If anything it's usability and functionality that needs to evolve in them (in conjuction with the content displayed and handled by them), not their technical specs per se.
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Contributr
RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
Ricardo Bilton Updated - 5th Jan
Don't forget the work thats being done to develop color eInk screens. It won't be long until eReaders start using those.
@Ricardo Bilton Color eInk can't handle the refresh rate required to do basic animation .... much less video playback. eInk is mostly good for static displays.
Tablets are not man-tools, they're twitter-toys for adolescents:

Even the marketing of this junk (and the adjuncts) is adolescent: twitter, icecream sandwich (ohfergodsakes), linkedin (a rock group from the 90's?), google (you can't hide your googley eyes, and the truth you can't disguise, 'cause by now you realize, you can't hide your googley eyes), android (a techie downstairs you feed through a slot in the floor), Nook (hey baby how 'bout a little Nookie), Kindle (hey baby how 'bout I Kindle yer fire), . . . etcetera ad nauseum . . .

Until battery life exceeds 30 days on a charge, purchase cost is less than $100, screen is color, screen size is comparable to an e-reader, ease of use is similar to an e-book, a full-sized keyboard folds over the screen to protect it, and the weight is in the 6-12 oz region, I will NEVER buy a tablet (and I'm not kidding).

In other words, the E-reader is way closer to my specs than a contemporary tablet (it's just missing the color screen and the keyboard).
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
nightbirdsf Updated - 5th Jan
@Gezeer Moore's law.
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
Captiosus Updated - 5th Jan
@nightbirdsf "Moore's law."
Is dead. So says Gordon Moore. When the man the law is named after says the law is dead, I'm pretty sure he knows what he's talking about.
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@Gezeer for some reason your post invoked cuneiform in my mind
Curious....
Great tablets, slow refresh
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"strong tendency for stand alone gadgets (e-readers, GPS receivers, MP3 players, etc) to converge into single devices"

Not true for MP3 players. My MP3 Player last more plan 20 hours (rated for 50 hours). I can change sound volume, skip track, fast forward in blind mode (manipulating the buttons while the device is in the pocket). It is also light so I can take it for outdoor activities. I don't think any tablet can do that.
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
StandardPerson Updated - 5th Jan
@RelaxWalk, you're right. That's what smart phones are for.

As for "manipulating buttons" I have no idea what you're talking about. When I'm using my iPhone 4S for music, there's only one button to worry about and that's the one on the ear-phones. You just hold it down for a second and say "play all along the watchtower by jimi hendrix" and away it goes. (I need to say the last three words because I've got several versions of this song.)
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@RelaxWalk

I agree, I have no intention of bringing my phone or tablet to the gym with me and untlil smartphones battery life can improve, my sansa clip+ is my main go to for music when commuting as well.
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the cloud isn't everywhere
Goldie07 5th Jan
"Storage capacity isn???t really a big issue, especially with cloud storage."

Guess what, the cloud isn't everywhere. Guess what goes to the cottage all the time, the e-reader. Guess what doesn't exist at the cottage, hi-speed internet. Guess what only works intermittently at the cottage, cell service.

It always blows me away that tech writers forget that not everyone, and in fact a good part of the population, lives and or travels to areas that still do not have reliable hi-speed access to the internet.
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@Goldie07

I agree completely. I do most of my reading at my cabins out in the woods somewhere. The only clouds around are in the sky.
is not a problem.
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
dave95. Updated - 6th Jan
You could store more ebooks on that one gig of space than you would be able to physically carry, obviously. For cabin reading on iPad or other tablets.
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Ereaders don't need to evolve. I use them for their eInk screens, their portability, and their battery life.

Why on earth would I want a tablet I can only view in direct light?

Why on earth would I want an eReader without an unlit eink screen?

These are the questions most eReader lovers would ask. There's no coexistence that can happen.
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@wendellgee@

+1

Although I have an iPad I'm thinking of buying an eReader to take the place of all of the books I have. Being much cheaper I would not be afraid to take it places where I might loose it or have it damaged.
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Are paper clips doomed?
Roque Mocan 5th Jan
There is no place for them to evolve...
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Probably
Nihon8888 6th Jan
@Roque Mocan as everything goes digital we will need less and less paper until we each the point of being truly paperless. At which point paper clips are no longer needed. So yes they are doomed
I think this is the whole point of the article - yes e-readers provide a purpose now but when other devices (tablets and smartphones or whatever else is next) provide equivalent functionality there will no longer be a need for the single purpose device such as an e-reader.
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e-Readers are for avid readers
Patanjali 5th Jan
Anybody else has a form of ADD and cannot concentrate for hours. Tablets do quite well for them.

While mildly tongue-in-cheek, the above basically sums up the issue. Tablets, being mostly shiny LCD devices are not good for hours of concentrated reading.

I got a Kindle because when I do actually get around to reading, I will mostly read a whole book at once. I change position many times during those hours. A tablet is usually too heavy and reflective for such use. 200g is much better than the 600g for an iPad2 or 380g for my Galaxy Tab 7".

And if one wants to read on a train or bus, flickering sunlight plays havoc with readability on tablets, whereas an eReader is no problem.

Until tablets are very light and have matte displays, they will not be suitable for most avid (rabid) readers.
I think that reflective displays makes the devices look brighter (sales advantage), but do not actually help them. However, as a smaller portable device, they can be easily manoeuvred to minimise the relections.

Still doen't explain why larger devices like TVs have them. Certainly, if my 30" Dells had shiny screens, I would be driven crazy by the relections of everything behind me. When I have seen the 27" all-in-one Macs in stores, I have wondered how anyone could stand the reflections.
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
StandardPerson Updated - 6th Jan
@Patanjali, matte screens blur the pixels, effectively reducing the display's resolution. Shiny screens do not.

Also, a shiny screen only reflects light coming from one direction, like a mirror, whereas a marbled or matte screen reflects light coming from a range of angles. This means that the blacks of a shiny screen are blacker than those of a matte screen. Generally, shiny displays have greater contrast and colour saturation than matte ones, but the price is the reflections that some people find so annoying.

I have read dozens of novels and technical books since buying my iPad and I'm not bothered by the shiny screen. When I do want to watch a film, view some photographs or read a magazine with coloured diagrams and photographs (many of which have physical counterparts that are printed on glossy paper) I like the contrast and deep blacks.
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
dave95. Updated - 6th Jan
@Patanjali

Actually, my problem with eInk and eReaders like the kindle is the way it flickers the whole screen when turning a page. I could never get used to that, it disrupts the whole mood. Not saying tablets are any better though, just that personally I get just as distracted with that flicker.
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@dave95.
The new Kindle eInk doesn't do a whole page refresh every time you turn the page, only every 5 page turns. The advantage is that page turns are faster and flicker free. The disadvantage is that by the 4th page turn, the screen has noticeable ghosting.
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
dave95. Updated - 6th Jan
@toddybottom

That's too bad. Sounds like they're trying to push the technology forward (caching pages, touch) but with no great success yet, if ever.
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No great success?
toddybottom 6th Jan
@dave95.
I would agree that there is no perfect success yet in taking hundreds of physical books and being able to cram them into an electronic device that is smaller than 1 book. However, the quality of the eInk reading screen is so close to the quality of real paper that all the other benefits drastically outweight the occasional flicker or ghosting, at least in my opinion and the opinion of millions of others.

It reminds me of the vinyl vs digital music arguments. Technically speaking, vinyl produces better sound but would you say that digital music hasn't had great success yet? The advantages of digital music far outweigh the disadvantages for 99% of the population. I see the same happening with eInk.

I didn't respond to your post to suggest eInk was perfect (clearly, since I listed the disadvantages of the new page refresh approach). I only wanted to let you know that if the flickering is what bothered you (and it clearly bothers many others or they wouldn't have changed it) then a remedy has been attempted. Go take another look at the new devices if it was the flickering that was holding you back.
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
dave95. Updated - 6th Jan
@toddybottom

I meant no great success (yet, or if ever) in taking eInk further from where it started, from a usability standpoint. Not that eInk is bad, I fully understand its benefits for reading.

Companies tired to add touch to their eInk devices but from what I am reading and my brief testing, they suck! And the whole flickering/ghosting whether occasional or not is still present, which means I won't be buying. That alone kills any benefits it may have with its screen. My personal views, not speaking for any other.
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I understand now
toddybottom 6th Jan
And I agree with you on the touch thing. I specifically did not want a touch screen.
A friend of mine recently got a new Kindle Fire to replace an earlier Kindle. Then we were on a beach in Hawaii and she couldn't read her book because the "upgraded" reader couldn't be seen in full sun. Sure the Fire can be used for other things and in other places, but for that day at least it didn't work for the core scenario.
Absolutely !!! No one read e-readers in Asia.
We use paper or smart phone or tablet.
@Voltus
The eReader niche is for multi-hour reading, or outside.

For anything else, a tablet will do. If you don't do the above and can validly speak for several billion people, then you may be right. Otherwise, you are just making up crap! Oh, and where are the stats showing NO sales in Asia?

Otherwise, just finish your schooling!
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
tora201 Updated - 6th Jan
@Patanjali
Not sure about elsewhere in Asia, but here in Japan e-readers (by Sony, Sharp, etc) have been flops so far. I put it down to a lack of available material. Japanese publishers seem happy with the status quo. And as for the Kindle - we can't even get hold of it here.
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
Captiosus Updated - 6th Jan
This is a ridiculous piece. I don't consider myself old (yet) and I'm certainly not a Luddite. I love my tech gadgets as much as anyone else. But I would never, ever , replace my eInk reader with a tablet.

I have some experience with the failure of tablets as eReaders because my wife pined for a Kindle Fire and she's a more avid reader than I am. She wanted to replace her old Kindle 3 Kindle Keyboard and, for Christmas, I obliged. Since she does most of her reading in bed, she thought it would be great to have a backlit LCD screen rather than the eInk one that required her to have a small light on beside the bed or a clip on book light. Here's how the whole thing turned out:

Day 1 - Got it set up and all her content transferred and let it charge all day while we did Christmas-y things (dinner, et cetera ). That night, she started using it.
Day 2 (Morning) - When she woke up, she complained she had a bad headache the night before. Didn't think anything of it. (Night) - Started using the Fire again. As she often did with the Kindle Keyboard, she fell asleep with it on.
Day 3 (Morning) - Again, complained about having a terrible headache before falling asleep. Battery on the Fire was completely drained. She took it with her to work and let it charge until lunch. At lunch, she tried to read, but the sunlight entering the room glared the screen so badly she couldn't. (Night) - Read before going to sleep, but started to feel a headache again. She turned off the Fire and the potential headache subsided.
Day 4 - That evening she apologized for ever asking for the Kindle Fire and asked if I still had the receipt. Then requested all her content be transferred back to the Kindle Keyboard.
Day 5 - Kindle Fire was returned and she's now considering a newer eInk Kindle instead.

I'm willing to bet my wife's situation is not unique. The contrast on LCD screens are too sharp for prolonged periods of reading and the backlight is far too harsh, even on low settings, in low light situations. In bright situations, the reflectiveness of the screen make them nearly impossible to use. The battery life of LCD tablets are horrendous. Amazon's estimates of 7 hours for the Kindle Fire is generous . Compare that to the four times I've charged my Kindle Touch that I bought the day they were available at market (and I've read, let's see.. 9 books so far).

eInk readers aren't going anywhere. Just because they do one thing well doesn't mean they have to be thrown into the scrap heap because something else can perform a similar function. Frankly, this is my biggest problem with digital convergence. I would rather have a device that performs one function exceedingly well than one device that performs several functions half-assedly; LCD tablets are decidedly half-assed when it comes to substantial reading.
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@Captiosus "I'm willing to bet my wife's situation is not unique. The contrast on LCD screens are too sharp for prolonged periods of reading and the backlight is far too harsh, even on low settings, in low light situations."

This might be a valid concern on the Kindle Fire: I don't know.

Personally, I find the iPad's screen too contrasty for long periods of text-only reading, so I turn down the brightness and switch the colour scheme from black on white to dark brown on sepia. I've never had eye strain using this way.

I don't know how long an iPad runs with WiFi and the cell-modem disabled and the brightness turned right down. I'm sure it's not as long as an eInk device, but I'd only need those sorts of running times if I were going hiking for a week. Next time I do that, I may buy a cheap eInk eReader for that purpose alone.
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Are e-predictions doomed? Afraid not but isn't it pretty to think so.

So the basic premise is that anything that already does it's job extremely well but can't evolve to do a bunch of cr@p a sizable portion of its users have no interest in ever seeing it do it must by necessity be doomed. Somebody needs to inform all those paper clips, pencils and common pins I still see lying around. Boy will they be embarrassed that they never got the message.
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RE: Are e-readers doomed? Yes, they are
jonandkelly Updated - 6th Jan
It was funny I was just thinking the other day when I was on the train in boston and looked out and noticed the large number of nooks and kindles and had to laugh at the tech pundits call of the demise of ereaders once the iPad became mainstream.

In the past year I don't think I've seen more eink ereaders than I do now, it's growth is insane. Cheap, paper like look , light and insane battery life.

The death of this market has been greatly exaggerated. but coming from Zdnet who seems like it's job to shape publics perception towards all things Apple its not a shock

This site is getting really really bad as of late.
The deluxe edition of The Hobbit in the iTunes book store includes multimedia recordings of Tolkien singing some of the songs in the book and alternate versions of the illustrations you can access with a tap on the page. Definitely worth the $13 price. And something that requires a tablet and a richer file format than Amazon's brain-dead mobi-pocket.

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