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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Gartner: Late arrival of Windows 8 might limit its appeal

By | September 22, 2011, 9:30am PDT

Summary: Gartner warns that Windows 8 tablets won’t be iPad killers.

A warning to Microsoft from research firm Gartner that the longer the company delays the release of Windows 8, the less of an appeal it might have with consumers and the more the buzz around the new OS will have worn away.

Basically, the upshot is that the longer Microsoft waits, the more ground iOS and Android gains:

The current buzz around Windows 8 driven by the demonstrations seen at the Build conference might be short-lived if Microsoft’s push to use the new OS across devices comes at a compromise in usability. Moreover, the late arrival might limit its appeal, especially to consumers, as Apple and Android will be more entrenched by then. Microsoft’s platform will find its biggest opportunities in the enterprise segment, where IT departments could benefit from smoother integration with existing Microsoft software.

Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner, had this to say:

“We expect Apple to maintain a market share lead throughout our forecast period by commanding more than 50 percent of the market until 2014. This is because Apple delivers a superior and unified user experience across its hardware, software and services. Unless competitors can respond with a similar approach, challenges to Apple’s position will be minimal.”

In other words, don’t expect Windows 8 tablets to be iPad killers.

Gartner also polishes the crystal ball and offers up sales predictions out to 2015:

Gartner thinks Microsoft is going to sell tablets, but it’s a small drop in the ocean compared to iOS and Android.

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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What?
MichaelWells 25th Sep
As an Apple Fanboy, I can truly say that the one major factor that Apple has going against it is the cool factor. Apple has become the mainstream. It is losing it's hipness. Not to mention the fact that more and more people are getting put off but the company and it's consumers snarkiness. I am an Apple fan, but one with 20/20 vision.
Kill it fast? Probably not. Kill it slowly? Maybe. Microsoft didn't dominate Apple in the desktop PC market in two months, they did it over many years. Today the tech journalist world has the attention span of a fruit fly so people expect that if your product hasn't jumped to the top of the charts in a couple weeks you're a "dud" and should be killed off.
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Then again, it could take off ...
P. Douglas Updated - 22nd Sep
@Ididar,

... similar to Kinect. It probably won't be that great, but remember, MS has tremendous positive brand awareness in the PC market - similar to what it had in the game console market when Kinect was released. This is in contrast to its Windows Mobile brand, which was beaten relentlessly over the head for a long time, before Windows Phone 7 came along. MS is paying its dues for Windows Mobile, and it will take a while before MS re-establishes broad credibility in the smartphone market.
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That Clinches It
archangel9999 23rd Sep
@Ididar Gartner's prognostications have always been wrong - remember how Sun's X Windows desktop was going to kill PCs? Microsoft must be cheering Gartner's latest happy
"Gartner warns that Windows 8 tablets won???t be iPad killers."

No, AKH warns that Windows 8 tablets won't be iPad killers. Gartner said nothing of the sort. Gartner is a professional organization while you are an amateur blogger.

Of course Windows 8 tablets won't kill the iPad. It would like suggesting the economy car is going to kill the scooter.
Would have been best to follow in Apple and Google's footstep by tweaking WP7 mobile OS for tablets. Updating the SDK, APIs. Have it ready for OEMs to get out the door now as a strong alternative to iOS and Android's disjointed offering. Same strong ecosystem. Able to run most of the 30000 apps they just touted for Windows Phone. Solidify your position now as a solid alternative. While at the same time working on this Win8 + Metro-Style layer as the more advance offering for the market in the distant future.
@dave95.
"Would have been best to follow in Apple and Google's footstep by tweaking WP7 mobile OS for tablets."

How well did that work out for HP and RIM? How profitable are Android tablets?

Exactly.

Following in Apple's footsteps is a guarantee of failure because Apple is simply too strong and ruthless to compete against. No one can compete against Apple. The iPad tablet market is a sick market with only 1 healthy competitor.

There is no reason for MS to lose money in the short term by doing what you have suggested they do. A WP7 tablet would fail just like WebOS failed, just like RIM is failing, and quite frankly, just like Android is failing.

MS is being smart here by not following Apple and Google. Will Windows 8 tablets be a success? No one can say for sure. However, we can all be certain that WP7 tablets would have failed.
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Parroting the same...
dave95. Updated - 22nd Sep
@toddybottom

Microsoft is not building the hardware, so there's no comparison with Rim and HP who were trying to push a complete solution. All they have to do is provide their mobile OS to OEMs, now, maybe even freely to current WP7 partners. Just to have a presence now. Call it a stepping stone if they must.

All I am saying is get something out in the market now to compete. The longer the wait (2013?), the harder it becomes for consumers to switch between ecosystems. Microsoft of all companies should know this very well (PC vs Macs). Consumers will have to reinvest in all their favorite app content switching to Win8. Not going to happen. And who knows what the market will be like in 2013, it's a bigger risks imo having consumers wait for a Microsoft "no compromise" more expensive option then.
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Of course there is a comparison
toddybottom 22nd Sep
"Microsoft is not building the hardware, so there's no comparison with Rim and HP who were trying to push a complete solution"

The problem isn't a supply side, it is a demand side issue. There is absolutley no demand for a tablet unless it is called iPad. I'm not the one saying this. Everyone is saying that there is no tablet market, there is only the iPad market.

And nice of you to ignore Android which I also mentioned. Android is a failure in the tablet market by every possible definition of the word. It is a failure in profit. It is a failure in marketshare. Fail fail fail. There is no reason for MS to follow in Android's footsteps. That would be following the path to fail fail fail.

" The longer the wait (2013?), the harder it becomes for consumers to switch between ecosystems. "

I totally agree. They should not wait any longer than absolutely necessary. However, that doesn't mean that they should today release a product that does not align with their long term plans and will simply fail fail fail in the iPad market.

I put the chances of a Windows 8 slate success quite low for exactly the reasons you pointed out. Every iteration of the iPad is going to get more and more functional and lock in more and more consumers. You are totally right. However, that doesn't mean that MS should lose money on a fail fail fail product right now when it isn't even a stepping stone to where MS wants to be in the slate market. MS does not want to be in the iPad market. I don't blame them. Apple has murdered everyone else who has tried. Absolutely murdered them. There is no hope of any competition ever being successful in the iPad market. It is a sick market.
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@toddybottom ... umm ... that was the mantra re: smartphones in 2009 - 2010. Now Android has significantly larger marketshare. You can go on about "Apple makes more money" all you want (and i kind of expect you to), but any way you slice, it, Android is certainly competing with Apple, in that market.

Now 20% tablet market share, without even having their true tablet version of the OS out to the mass market yet ...

Not sure what you mean by "no one can compete against Apple".
So Gartner expects there will be anual sales of 326,304,000 tablets by 2015? Seems a bit tall. So by 2016 there will be over 900 million sold per year. I suppose if you count all 'tablet forms', e.g. eReaders, etc.
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Isn't there enough of a market to have a successful iPad, Android Tablet, and Windows 8 Tablet?
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RE: Gartner: Late arrival of Windows 8 might limit its appeal
LoverockDavidson_-24231404894599612871915491754222 22nd Sep
Gartner says this every time Microsoft releases a new version of Windows and its never true. People are willing to wait for Microsoft Windows 8. One thing we can read from this report is that tablets have lost their buzz if people aren't waiting for Microsoft Windows 8 to be on them.
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Limit its appeal??
spaulagain Updated - 22nd Sep
Its a full blown OS with full PC functionality. Its not a glorified smart phone like Android tablets and the iPad. It will meet a much larger portion of the market. And most likely eat into the Net-book and Laptop market.

Not to mention its integration of Social networking and Applications far exceeds what the competitors have on the market. Oh, and that thing called Xbox, and what ever else falls into the large eco-system MS has.

I give up on the tech news industry, they really don't have a clue about the products they are talking about or the type of market they will be in.
I don't believe this for one simple reason, why would anyone choose an Android tablet over a Windows 8 tablet if they're running on the exact same hardware? Windows 8 is going to get better apps than Android because the app store is going to be available on hundreds of millions of computers in the first year alone.
I downloaded and installed Windows 8 in VirtualBox earlier today, and then fooled around for it a bit. It seems to mostly function as a way to snag the clueless into getting a Windows Live account, and offers no challenge whatsoever to iPads and their burgeoning app market. It's a fussy, fussy program with a really poorly thought out and clunky interface (and what's with that business with burying the Power Off option?) "Windows Bytes" seems like a better name for it.
Can you really compare a toy with a tool?
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Still Paying For Vista
ldo17 22nd Sep
Looks like Microsoft is still counting the cost of the Vista debacle. That set back the company's entire OS schedule by about 5 years, and they still haven't caught up.

Shame, really.
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Wasn't Vista rushed out?
keebaud@... 23rd Sep
I understand the need for a tablet friendly version of Windows, but history has shown us that rushing a bug-ridden OS out just to meet marketing demands results in worse publicity than waiting until most of the bugs are ironed out.
It's a bit late to worry about competing with the iPad, and successful Windows 8 tablets won't even be competing to the same buyers as the iPad.
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Huh?
MichaelWells 23rd Sep
Isn't this the argument they used against Android vs. iOS on the phone platform?
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What?
MichaelWells 25th Sep
As an Apple Fanboy, I can truly say that the one major factor that Apple has going against it is the cool factor. Apple has become the mainstream. It is losing it's hipness. Not to mention the fact that more and more people are getting put off but the company and it's consumers snarkiness. I am an Apple fan, but one with 20/20 vision.

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