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Topic: CXO

Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

Summary: Gartner predicts bad news for Microsoft and Windows Phone 7 in the mobile marketplace.

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

By for Hardware 2.0 |

Gartner predicts bad news for Microsoft and Windows Phone 7 in the mobile marketplace.

According to InformationWeek, it's really bad news.

Gartner predicts the release of Windows Phone 7 will help bump Microsoft's share of the worldwide market from 4.7% in 2010 to 5.2% in 2011, but says the company's share will ultimately decline to just 3.9% by 2014.

According to data released by Nielsen, the current state of play is that Android holds some 32% of the US market, while Apple as a 25% share. This is an enormous mountain for Microsoft to climb, and it's little wonder why some feel that the Redmond giant might have another KIN on its hands.

What do you think? Hit or miss ...

Topics: CXO, IT Priorities, Microsoft, Mobility, Operating Systems, Software, Windows

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  • The reason Windows Phone 7 will fail

    In the past, Microsoft has traditionally released a bad first generation product, and then improved on it by the third generation.<br><br>Obviously Microsoft thinks it can pull this off again, by rushing Windows Phone 7 to market prematurely, in an unfinished state. The first Windows Phone 7 handsets will have missing features such as no Copy/Paste, no tethering to a laptop, and no multitasking for apps you install. Third party apps are unable to communicate with the phone's hardware, unable to see the video camera or compass.<br><br>The problem for Microsoft is that the mobile market is different to previous markets. The dynamics of having a separate OS vendor, handset maker (OEM) and the unique power of network carriers (telcos) means that Microsoft needs to hit the ground running. It needs to have immediate success, or those OEMs and carriers will soon desert it.<br><br>There is no chance of Windows Phone 7 having immediate success in its half-baked unfinished state. Microsoft hopes to have the shortcomings and missing features fixed by the next generation, Windows Phone 8. But it does not have that time to get it right. Just like Microsoft's previous KIN phones, there are no second chances in mobile.
    Vbitrate
    Reply Vote

    • Yep, exactly, Microsoft introducing a half-baked phone will just be a

      disaster. Will it last longer than the KIN did?????
      DonnieBoy
      Reply Vote

    • Let me say it in a funny way:

      @Market Analyst
      When I first heard that my HTC-HD2 will not be upgradable to Windows Phone 7, I was very angry. Today I am not! And imagine that I am really a fan of Windows Mobile and all the reasons make me (and I think some of this 4%) a fan, get wiped out just without any thought ?

      Weird thinking they have some times...
      gkakas@...
      Reply Vote

    • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

      @Market Analyst ,
      "There is no chance of Windows Phone 7 having immediate success in its half-baked unfinished state. "
      In your opinion, which is the perfect platform? IMO, none. For example, how do you manage 100s/1000s of iOS phones/tablets in an enterprise? Because with BB Enterprise Server is very easy. How's the Exchange support with iOS? Can I flag emails and automatically be flagged in Outlook via Exchange? Can I sort emails for flagged or unread messages? Why do I need to login to an iOS phone to see if I have unread messages or to see my next appointment?
      My point is that there is no perfect mobile platform. So each user/enterprise has to decide, and many will choose iOS, others Android, BB or WP7. IMO, all platforms are playing in the same level and I don't see one of the them taking a strong advantage over the others.
      dvm
      Reply Vote

      • Microsoft's last mobile OS got smoked, and there is not any indication

        that the dorky Win7 interface will fare any better. Especially with the other players entrenched. It might last longer than Kin did . . . . .
        DonnieBoy
        Reply Vote

      • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

        @donnie

        You do know the Metro UI has been well received?
        The one and only, Cylon Centurion
        Reply Vote

      • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

        @Cylon Centurion 0005<br><br>Well, it hasn't been received yet in the buying pubic hands. I remember how many were praising mcrosoft for their Kin saying how there's this need for such a tween/teen device. We know how well that went. Not saying WP7 will see the same faith, just that we won't know until it ships how well it's received. Hardware design, battery, price, carrier will also play a part.
        dave95.
        Reply Vote

      • Cylon Centurion: We also heard that the Kin was very well received, until

        they released it to the public. And, then, well, we did not hear much at all . . . . . .
        DonnieBoy
        Reply Vote

      • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

        @dave95 unfortunately, different handsets will have different properties, depending on which OEM someone buys from. Each WP7 device is not equal to another.
        The one and only, Cylon Centurion
        Reply Vote

      • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

        @dvm :<br><br>@Market Analyst does not mean the iOS is perfect, but has features that people want. <br><br>If you trace Androids history the HTC Dream or G1 (first Android phone) was limited and the interface resembled more a blackberry than an iPhone. But Google played it's cards right and slowly started perfecting the phone until it became an iPhone rival. Right now it exceeds the iPhone in sales but not in profit.<br><br>Microsoft can try to repeat this again, but has two things against.<ol> <li>First, WP7 is closed source, so only the team inside MS can change the core experience.</li><li> Second, it reuses existing Microsoft technologies aka Silverlight and CoreCLR. </li></ol>Android is open source and uses mostly new technology (even the Java implemented is not really Java as per Google's claim). So they have literally hundreds of thousands of developers doing the core work and another group doing apps. Also, using Linux as the kernel gives them access to hundreds of drivers for any imaginable device (remember that Linux had to compete with XP, CE didn't so is more targeted and has fewer drivers).<br><br>Last but not least, developers now have several platforms to choose. Android offers slates, phones and Google TV. iOS offers slates (iPad), phones (iPhone 3GS and 4) and personal media player (iPod touch). WP7 offers phone and... web... although there's no guarantee of compatibility between the two...<br><br>In the end... you do the math...
        cosuna
        Reply Vote

    • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

      @Market Analyst

      Hey, did you copy paste your "Copy/Paste" statement every time there is an article about WP7?
      live.tiles
      Reply Vote

      • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

        @herry.k : Yep, he used an iPhone. I tried the same with my Kin, but they (brothers, sisters, nephews) said to bug off... LOL...
        cosuna
        Reply Vote

    • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

      @Market Analyst I agree. It's not going to go far in its current state. It's missing too much. And what bothers me is that they are going to smear the good name of windows 7 by giving this half baked OS the same name. They should call it Windows Phone Vista. Because that's what it is an unfinished OS that they are pushing to market.
      Jimster480
      Reply Vote

    • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

      @Market Analyst I hope Gartner is right. Because when they predict a smartphone OS to fail they've sucked at their analysis. This is the same company of "experts on mobile" that also predicted the failure of the iPhone and Android. Great track record there?

      I don't understand why you even bother to post messages against WP7. It seems your just a scared little girl worried about WP7 becoming successful and pathetically railing against it. It's ironic that review after review of WP7 comes back positive many many more than negative.

      I guess you feel you need to do something to fight against the upcoming waterfall of WP7 success.
      SmoothDouglas
      Reply Vote

  • What advice do you have for anyone who bought a failed phone?

    @DonnieBoy <br>What will be the ramifications for people who bought Windows Phone 7 handsets, if the platform fails?<br><br>What about those who bought Microsoft KIN phones? It lasted 2 months on the market before it was gone. What do people do with those KIN handsets now?<br><br>Microsoft had previously promised that missing features in KIN would be fixed in software updates to come at a later date. The problem is that the KIN failed, and those updates never came.
    Vbitrate
    Reply Vote

  • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

    @DonnieBoy

    That would be me Donnie and all the other WInMo users. It will be quickly followed by all those people who want a real smartphone rather than the geekasm (bugginess) of Android or the "please look I'm so cool, ignore my dropouts" vision of Apple.

    People will buy Windows phones becasue of one reason - it's a Windows phone. It's easy to forget that Windows is the global OS and your beloved Linux and even Apple are just fringe players. That brand recognition of Microsoft and Windows (which is not touched by all the hate that is spewed out on these blog posts) will sell these phones by itself. This is to say nothing of the fact that it's also a better phone.

    I am so looking forward to your cognitive dissonance, your rationalisations and your sad attempts to explain why so many people have bought Windows phones. Good times ahead Donnie, but not for you ;-)
    tonymcs@...
    Reply Vote

    • Yea, like the people just flocked to Kin because Android was so bad.

      NT.
      DonnieBoy
      Reply Vote

    • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

      @tonymcs@... Sorry little tony... Apple and Linux are not fringe players in Mobile... Microsoft and Intel are...

      ARM, RIM, Apple and Android are the leaders, you want it or not...

      Windows is the fringe brand and Microsoft is also... just as Lotus 1-2-3 was a fringe brand on Windows.

      Move on... go troll to another place...
      cosuna
      Reply Vote

    • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

      @tonymcs@... wow you are a real fanboi. I have Microsoft software and Linux and both a windows mobile and a android phone. I love windows 7. I had a launch party for it, I beta tested it and reported bugs I helped many people migrate to it and helped them learn how to use it if thy were confused. But Windows phone 7 is a fail. It's missing a bunch of features. It's late to the party and ms plans on trying to push it by suing companies to try to slow Android. It's a step back from windows mobile. Not a step forward. I would not buy it to replace my Windows mobile phone or any other CE based device I have.
      Jimster480
      Reply Vote

  • RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

    @DonnieBoy I will, and many of my friends, will be getting this phone. To compare the KIN to WP7 is like comparing the Model T to a 2010 Mustang.<br><br>Why do you care and post about WP7? You and Market Analyst appear to have WP7 on the brain. Maybe deep inside you REALLY want one, but because of whatever reason you hate MS and can't fathom the idea of any product they put out. Maybe you fear that WP7 will replace your beloved mobile phone you have now. Whatever it is, you only prove how pathetic you are by posting over and over how much you hate this phone.<br><br>I guess we'll all wait and see because for every Troll such as yourself there are just as many or more WP7 fans that can't wait to get their hands on one.<br><br>Good luck trolling.
    SmoothDouglas
    Reply Vote
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