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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
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Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition

By | October 6, 2010, 2:59pm PDT

Gartner predicts bad news for Microsoft and Windows Phone 7 in the mobile marketplace.

According to InformationWeek, it’s really bad news.

Gartner predicts the release of Windows Phone 7 will help bump Microsoft’s share of the worldwide market from 4.7% in 2010 to 5.2% in 2011, but says the company’s share will ultimately decline to just 3.9% by 2014.

According to data released by Nielsen, the current state of play is that Android holds some 32% of the US market, while Apple as a 25% share. This is an enormous mountain for Microsoft to climb, and it’s little wonder why some feel that the Redmond giant might have another KIN on its hands.

What do you think? Hit or miss …

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Topics

Microsoft Windows Phone 7, Gartner Inc., Microsoft Windows Phone, Gartnet, Microsoft Windows, Operating Systems, Software, Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
tdaonp 8th Oct 2010
A fresh look and a changing market place, due to Nokia's stubborn adherence to Symbian, may help Windows Phone 7 to become a relevant phone OS.

http://thesecondopiniontribune.blogspot.com/2010/10/why-windows-phone-7-may-have-chance.html
View in thread
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The reason Windows Phone 7 will fail
gjafg Updated - 6th Oct 2010
In the past, Microsoft has traditionally released a bad first generation product, and then improved on it by the third generation.

Obviously Microsoft thinks it can pull this off again, by rushing Windows Phone 7 to market prematurely, in an unfinished state. The first Windows Phone 7 handsets will have missing features such as no Copy/Paste, no tethering to a laptop, and no multitasking for apps you install. Third party apps are unable to communicate with the phone's hardware, unable to see the video camera or compass.

The problem for Microsoft is that the mobile market is different to previous markets. The dynamics of having a separate OS vendor, handset maker (OEM) and the unique power of network carriers (telcos) means that Microsoft needs to hit the ground running. It needs to have immediate success, or those OEMs and carriers will soon desert it.

There is no chance of Windows Phone 7 having immediate success in its half-baked unfinished state. Microsoft hopes to have the shortcomings and missing features fixed by the next generation, Windows Phone 8. But it does not have that time to get it right. Just like Microsoft's previous KIN phones, there are no second chances in mobile.
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Yep, exactly, Microsoft introducing a half-baked phone will just be a
DonnieBoy 6th Oct 2010
disaster. Will it last longer than the KIN did?????
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Let me say it in a funny way:
gkakas@... 6th Oct 2010
@Market Analyst
When I first heard that my HTC-HD2 will not be upgradable to Windows Phone 7, I was very angry. Today I am not! And imagine that I am really a fan of Windows Mobile and all the reasons make me (and I think some of this 4%) a fan, get wiped out just without any thought ?

Weird thinking they have some times...
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
dvm 6th Oct 2010
@Market Analyst ,
"There is no chance of Windows Phone 7 having immediate success in its half-baked unfinished state. "
In your opinion, which is the perfect platform? IMO, none. For example, how do you manage 100s/1000s of iOS phones/tablets in an enterprise? Because with BB Enterprise Server is very easy. How's the Exchange support with iOS? Can I flag emails and automatically be flagged in Outlook via Exchange? Can I sort emails for flagged or unread messages? Why do I need to login to an iOS phone to see if I have unread messages or to see my next appointment?
My point is that there is no perfect mobile platform. So each user/enterprise has to decide, and many will choose iOS, others Android, BB or WP7. IMO, all platforms are playing in the same level and I don't see one of the them taking a strong advantage over the others.
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Microsoft's last mobile OS got smoked, and there is not any indication
DonnieBoy 6th Oct 2010
that the dorky Win7 interface will fare any better. Especially with the other players entrenched. It might last longer than Kin did . . . . .
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
Cylon Centurion 6th Oct 2010
@donnie

You do know the Metro UI has been well received?
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
dave95. Updated - 6th Oct 2010
@Cylon Centurion 0005

Well, it hasn't been received yet in the buying pubic hands. I remember how many were praising mcrosoft for their Kin saying how there's this need for such a tween/teen device. We know how well that went. Not saying WP7 will see the same faith, just that we won't know until it ships how well it's received. Hardware design, battery, price, carrier will also play a part.
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Cylon Centurion: We also heard that the Kin was very well received, until
DonnieBoy 6th Oct 2010
they released it to the public. And, then, well, we did not hear much at all . . . . . .
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
Cylon Centurion 7th Oct 2010
@dave95 unfortunately, different handsets will have different properties, depending on which OEM someone buys from. Each WP7 device is not equal to another.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
cosuna Updated - 7th Oct 2010
@dvm :

@Market Analyst does not mean the iOS is perfect, but has features that people want.

If you trace Androids history the HTC Dream or G1 (first Android phone) was limited and the interface resembled more a blackberry than an iPhone. But Google played it's cards right and slowly started perfecting the phone until it became an iPhone rival. Right now it exceeds the iPhone in sales but not in profit.

Microsoft can try to repeat this again, but has two things against. First, WP7 is closed source, so only the team inside MS can change the core experience. Second, it reuses existing Microsoft technologies aka Silverlight and CoreCLR. Android is open source and uses mostly new technology (even the Java implemented is not really Java as per Google's claim). So they have literally hundreds of thousands of developers doing the core work and another group doing apps. Also, using Linux as the kernel gives them access to hundreds of drivers for any imaginable device (remember that Linux had to compete with XP, CE didn't so is more targeted and has fewer drivers).

Last but not least, developers now have several platforms to choose. Android offers slates, phones and Google TV. iOS offers slates (iPad), phones (iPhone 3GS and 4) and personal media player (iPod touch). WP7 offers phone and... web... although there's no guarantee of compatibility between the two...

In the end... you do the math...
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
herry.k 6th Oct 2010
@Market Analyst

Hey, did you copy paste your "Copy/Paste" statement every time there is an article about WP7?
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
cosuna Updated - 7th Oct 2010
@herry.k : Yep, he used an iPhone. I tried the same with my Kin, but they (brothers, sisters, nephews) said to bug off... LOL...
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
Jimster480 7th Oct 2010
@Market Analyst I agree. It's not going to go far in its current state. It's missing too much. And what bothers me is that they are going to smear the good name of windows 7 by giving this half baked OS the same name. They should call it Windows Phone Vista. Because that's what it is an unfinished OS that they are pushing to market.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
SmoothDouglas 7th Oct 2010
@Market Analyst I hope Gartner is right. Because when they predict a smartphone OS to fail they've sucked at their analysis. This is the same company of "experts on mobile" that also predicted the failure of the iPhone and Android. Great track record there?

I don't understand why you even bother to post messages against WP7. It seems your just a scared little girl worried about WP7 becoming successful and pathetically railing against it. It's ironic that review after review of WP7 comes back positive many many more than negative.

I guess you feel you need to do something to fight against the upcoming waterfall of WP7 success.
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Yep, this could come and go about as fast as the KIN.
DonnieBoy 6th Oct 2010
Who will buy it????
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What advice do you have for anyone who bought a failed phone?
gjafg Updated - 6th Oct 2010
@DonnieBoy
What will be the ramifications for people who bought Windows Phone 7 handsets, if the platform fails?

What about those who bought Microsoft KIN phones? It lasted 2 months on the market before it was gone. What do people do with those KIN handsets now?

Microsoft had previously promised that missing features in KIN would be fixed in software updates to come at a later date. The problem is that the KIN failed, and those updates never came.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
tonymcs@... 6th Oct 2010
@DonnieBoy

That would be me Donnie and all the other WInMo users. It will be quickly followed by all those people who want a real smartphone rather than the geekasm (bugginess) of Android or the "please look I'm so cool, ignore my dropouts" vision of Apple.

People will buy Windows phones becasue of one reason - it's a Windows phone. It's easy to forget that Windows is the global OS and your beloved Linux and even Apple are just fringe players. That brand recognition of Microsoft and Windows (which is not touched by all the hate that is spewed out on these blog posts) will sell these phones by itself. This is to say nothing of the fact that it's also a better phone.

I am so looking forward to your cognitive dissonance, your rationalisations and your sad attempts to explain why so many people have bought Windows phones. Good times ahead Donnie, but not for you wink
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Yea, like the people just flocked to Kin because Android was so bad.
DonnieBoy 6th Oct 2010
NT.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
cosuna 7th Oct 2010
@tonymcs@... Sorry little tony... Apple and Linux are not fringe players in Mobile... Microsoft and Intel are...

ARM, RIM, Apple and Android are the leaders, you want it or not...

Windows is the fringe brand and Microsoft is also... just as Lotus 1-2-3 was a fringe brand on Windows.

Move on... go troll to another place...
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
Jimster480 7th Oct 2010
@tonymcs@... wow you are a real fanboi. I have Microsoft software and Linux and both a windows mobile and a android phone. I love windows 7. I had a launch party for it, I beta tested it and reported bugs I helped many people migrate to it and helped them learn how to use it if thy were confused. But Windows phone 7 is a fail. It's missing a bunch of features. It's late to the party and ms plans on trying to push it by suing companies to try to slow Android. It's a step back from windows mobile. Not a step forward. I would not buy it to replace my Windows mobile phone or any other CE based device I have.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
SmoothDouglas Updated - 7th Oct 2010
@DonnieBoy I will, and many of my friends, will be getting this phone. To compare the KIN to WP7 is like comparing the Model T to a 2010 Mustang.

Why do you care and post about WP7? You and Market Analyst appear to have WP7 on the brain. Maybe deep inside you REALLY want one, but because of whatever reason you hate MS and can't fathom the idea of any product they put out. Maybe you fear that WP7 will replace your beloved mobile phone you have now. Whatever it is, you only prove how pathetic you are by posting over and over how much you hate this phone.

I guess we'll all wait and see because for every Troll such as yourself there are just as many or more WP7 fans that can't wait to get their hands on one.

Good luck trolling.
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Come on, where are all of those MS propeller heads that were crowing about
DonnieBoy 6th Oct 2010
how great the kin was going to be????
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
tonymcs@... 6th Oct 2010
@DonnieBoy

How great was Linux going to be, and the Apple Newton and Lisa. In fact, any company that actually produces things runs the risk of things failing. For all your attempts to stir up rage on the Kin, I'm afraid no-one heard about it - sounds a lot like Linux doesn't it?

Still less than 1% Donnie. Still crazy after all these years wink
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Hey Lovey
Economister 6th Oct 2010
You do agree with Gartner, do you not? happy
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
tonymcs@... 6th Oct 2010
@Economister

On yeah because Gartner always get things right

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I don't think.....
Economister 6th Oct 2010
@tonymcs@...

I expressed an opinion on that, nor on the Gartner prediction itself. Funny how some people react.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
tonymcs@... 6th Oct 2010
@tonymcs@...

Sorry perhaps I wasn't clear.

NO.
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Oh my...
OS Reload 6th Oct 2010
I'm speechless.
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What is this...
itpro_z 6th Oct 2010
...the "I hate Microsoft more than you" club? You guys really need to get a life!

To answer your question "Who would buy this", I would say that many might.

-Are you a Windows users and absolutely hate iTunes? This might be the phone for you.

-Do you not wish to share all of your data with Google? This might be the phone for you.

-Work in an enterprise, and want a phone that will play nice with Exchange/Outlook, but are not happy with your BlackBerry? This might be the phone for you.

-Like the Zune? This definitely is the phone for you.

-Want XBox Live games on you phone? Well, you get the picture.

I don't know if this phone OS will be any good or not. None of us will until we have a few examples to play with. The early reports that I have read already say that WP7 is competitive with IOS and Android, so it at least has a chance. Besides, IOS is only available on one phone from a single carrier, a pretty major drawback, while Android is becoming so fractured that at the moment no one knows where it is going. RIM is in the process of doing a complete change in their OS, so who knows where that is going either.

Right now, we only support one smart phone on our network, and that is the BB. We have no inclination to add either iPhone or Android to our mix for some very solid reasons. What else is there? WP7 will get at least a look, and I would bet that there will be many business customers who will do the same.
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If Microsoft can keep up with it
Cylon Centurion 6th Oct 2010
@itpro_z

Then they do have a chance to succeed. All the complaints about copy and paste, etc. Microsoft is well aware of, and will be included in the phone before long. I look forward to playing with a phone come release day.

After the KIN disaster, Microsoft will not let this fail. Trust me.

Oh and those that are laughing just because it's a Microsoft product: Get a life seriously.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
g@... 6th Oct 2010
@Cylon Centurion 0005
Actually the KIN was killed due to internal competition.

I am glad it was killed as it makes no sense to have two entirely new smartphone platforms by the same vendor.
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Change happens....
James Quinn 6th Oct 2010
@itpro_z
When the iPhone first came out NOBODY in IT was saying it was going to join their enterprise. Gradually it did well before the iPhone 4 was released the iPhone was gaining business and enterprise market share. Don't know how Android is doing yet but it's young still. So lets talk in a few years we might be up to iPhone 5 or even 6 by then and who knows maybe even your outfit will have a change of heart?

Pagan jim
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Ahh, a MS haters love fest
P. Douglas 6th Oct 2010
You guys along with Gartner and InformationWeek can fantasize all you want about the downfall of Windows phones. Because that is the closest you will come to it actually happening. As for Gartner, its expertise at predicting stuff goes as far gauging what the majority of people are saying, and looking at a few trend charts. The company has no sophistication beyond looking at the obvious. The company doesn't even recognize that the mobile market is in a state of flux - meaning anything can happen.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
1773 6th Oct 2010
It's hilarious to see Donnieboy frothing in his mouth !! grin
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Yeah
Cylon Centurion 6th Oct 2010
@MSPawar

Just be prepared to come back tomorrow and see post after post belonging to him ALL saying the same thing.
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We understand you guys are depressed about Microsoft's performance with
DonnieBoy 6th Oct 2010
mobile. It is not going to get much better . . . .
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
DannyO_0x98 Updated - 6th Oct 2010
Isn't the problem that analysts like Gartner (and isn't their bailiwick the enterprise?) have their predictions reported without any call back to their track record. I know I wasn't paying attention when the iPhone was released or when Android started hitting the streets or when Microsoft refreshed it's holding-os, 6.5.

It'll do okay. The real questions, and the answers are buried in some memo on Ballmer's pc, are what share and how fast make it worthwhile when the beans are counted.
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Two keys to success.
TripleII-21189418044173169409978279405827 6th Oct 2010
They need to loss lead for a while. $199 seems to be the price point of the current crop of smartphones. If they can get them into customers hands at say $149, it has part one of the chance. The other, it has to be good, from the get go. I haven't played with one yet, I don't think anyone has had their hands on a final production model. If it does what it should, it has part two needed.

Except for the stock orange seen in pictures, the tiles interface is something I am open to playing with in the stores. iPhone is a don't care, I don't like corporate Apple on philosophical grounds so won't support them. I don't particularly like Google letting vendors cripple the phones and installing permanent crapware, so yes, a dyed in the wool Linux user will give MS's offering a chance before a knee jerk reaction. Oh, please let it work as a USB mass storage device for music and movies, etc. I won't buy an MTP (old or their new Zune type) device, but that is a don't care for most, MTP mostly works on Windows.

TripleII
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
Loverock Davidson 6th Oct 2010
Look its another article where AKH talks bad (or in this case lets someone else do it) about Microsoft! You are such a sell out.

Gartner is flat out wrong on this just like every other report they make. They are hurting for attention so they will say anything to get it. Windows Phone 7 is going to be a game changer. With its new UI you will see a new paradigm in how you use the cell phone. It also has a strong army of app developers behind it and tools to port over to WP7. I can only see good things coming for Microsoft.
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The source
_alexander_ 7th Oct 2010
Does anyone know from what source in Gartner this comes from? Haven't found anything about this anywhere that didn't originate from informationweek.com
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Stupid predictions....
adornoe@... 7th Oct 2010
Who the heck knows and understands what is coming down the road?

Who the heck knows and understands how people will receive the introduction of any new product?

Who the heck knows and understands how fickle and unpredictable the OS and hardware market is? And that includes PC desktops and laptops and cell-phones and smart-phones?

Who the heck does Gartner think they are?

I'll make a prediction of my own...

Gartner will be wrong, by "2014", regarding most of their predictions.

I'll bet there are people out there taking "predictions" as their basis for facts regarding any company or OS or piece of hardware, and they'll be making financial and purchasing decisions based on those stupid predictions.

Dummies!

One thing people don't realize is that, there are people and groups out there who are in the business of trying to make things happen, by either making predictions or by talking down a company or product or person. Thus, by predicting a bad future for WM7, there will be people who will interpret that as "WM7 has no future and therefore I will have to stay away from it and go with something else". That's called "steering". Anyone that falls for that kind of tactic is not doing his own thinking and will, in the end, be making bad decisions.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
ahh so 7th Oct 2010
@adornoe@...
Awww, painful thought, now isn't it?

lol... grin
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Sticking To My Prediction
cyberslammer 7th Oct 2010
Feb 2011: The end of Windows Phone 7
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Has anyone actually used a WP7 handset yet?
peter@... 7th Oct 2010
I did. Because I am a developer. And I cal tell you it is REALLy different from the past Windows Mobile phones. It is like Microsoft had a clean break and started anew.
That said, I must add 2 things: (1) The interface is modern and fluid, and (2) It is developer friendly so developing for this platform becomes easier.
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Let me do an impersonation
Michael Alan Goff 7th Oct 2010
Microsux already failed in the market, lawl. They're far too late, and the kin and stuff. Oh, and copy and paste is lacking lawl. Nobody will buy it cause of the kin lawl. I'm totally not making up for my own insecurities by coming to every blog post with Microsoft just to complain about them.

Okay, I lack subtlety, you get the point though. Donnie, Ahh so, and all of those people just need to get lives. Don't you guys have anything better to do than come to ZDnet and insult Microsoft? And why is it that there are more linux/OSX trolls than there are Windows trolls.

I've never understood how there are less OSX/Linux users and yet more rabid fanboys.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
SmoothDouglas Updated - 7th Oct 2010
@goff256 You hit the nail on the head goff. All these Anti-MS Fanboys have some insecurities that only they'll be able to understand. It's really pathetic.

WP7 has gotten good review after good review by Tech Sites, General News Sites, and even Apple Fanboys far more than negative reviews. WP7 will be successful. How much nobody (even Gartner) can't predict. What can predict are the Anti-MS fanboys coming into these articles and posting their insecure girlish opinions.
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RE: Gartner: Windows Phone 7 will trail behind the competition
tdaonp 8th Oct 2010
A fresh look and a changing market place, due to Nokia's stubborn adherence to Symbian, may help Windows Phone 7 to become a relevant phone OS.

http://thesecondopiniontribune.blogspot.com/2010/10/why-windows-phone-7-may-have-chance.html

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