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Hardware 2.0

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Intel's bad news could translate into bad news for Microsoft and Windows 7?

By | August 27, 2010, 12:47pm PDT

Intel, following an upbeat assessment a few weeks ago, is now cutting outlook for the third quarter following weaker than expected demand from consumers.

Intel Corporation today announced that third-quarter revenue will be below the company’s previous outlook. The company now expects third-quarter revenue to be $11.0 billion, plus or minus $200 million, compared to the previous expectation of between $11.2 and $12.0 billion. Revenue is being affected by weaker than expected demand for consumer PCs in mature markets. Inventories across the supply chain appear to be in-line with the company’s revised expectations.

Weaker than expected consumer demand for silicon from Intel (and AMD) means less demand for Windows 7. So far, Microsoft has enjoyed considerable success with its new OS, but this could be the first sign that the good times are coming to an end.

Which leads us to the obvious question - what was driving PC and Windows 7 sales in the first place? Was it Windows 7’s excellence? Was it the feeling that the economy was improving so it was safe to spend money? Was it part of a normal cycle of obsolescence? Whatever the reason, declining consumer CPU sales will translate directly into declining Windows 7 license sales, which is bad news for Microsoft.

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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Slow sells? Woopie....
Gis Bun 31st Aug 2010
I guess Mr. Kingsley-Hughes continues to dish out nothing but speculation. Slower sales doesn't mean a problem for Windows 7 - and if it does, it's only temporary. Companies know they have to get off Windows XP soon as XP dies within 4 years - unless they are idiots who are still running SP2 on their XP systems or like to wait to the last moment
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I've upgraded 3 systems in the house to Windows 7, plus a few for friends and relatives to Win7, too.

Sure they weren't going to run out and spend $600 for a new system, but 200 for the OS upgrade was worth it.

So Intel's problem don't have to be anyone elses.
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Probably not worth it
Economister 27th Aug 2010
@John Zern

OEM licenses are a LOT cheaper than retail. My guess is that they would have been better off getting new systems including the W7 license. An OS upgrade on suitable HW does not do much for productivity unless you upgrade applications and often hardware also. After all, most users do not spend much time in the OS, but rather in the applications.

It is like going out for pizza. Maybe you enjoyed it and are OK spending the money, but "worth it"? No, you would be much "better off" eating a sandwich at home.
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Damn
Cylon Centurion 27th Aug 2010
@Economister

I want some pizza now sad
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Can't say I agree
John Zern 27th Aug 2010
4 systems where Vista going up to Windows 7, so the hardware is perfectlly fine. The others were higher end machines to begin with.
@Economister,
Fair statement.
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Good wotk, John
theo_durcan 27th Aug 2010
Following Ed B. famous campaign "converting the world to Vista, one machine at the time"
Keep the faith, man

TD
@John Zern Smart guys either use Linux or download Windows 7 from the net.
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After all Windows 7 is a MS product and there for it would be bad new for MS but not both even if Windows 7 sales lag.

Now as the economy is the issue it's bad news for us all actually. Not unique to MS or Intel for that matter.

Pagan jim
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Not sure what you're getting at?
John Zern 27th Aug 2010
So you're saying that Windows 7 sales will still be good regardless of what happens with Intel?
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He is saying (I think)
wackoae 28th Aug 2010
.... that the Intel's loss is not necesarily an MS/Win7 loss.

Intel's loss is more likely an AMD gain. After all, AMD is actually a MUCH BETTER BUY for your bucks than any overpriced Intel machine.
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My view: combination of all three.
Economister 27th Aug 2010
A double dip recession making corporations cut back and defer upgrades/replacements yet again, could cut into MS's income considerably.
Adrian, I used to like your blogs. Now a days, it looks as if you just want to write articles that tends to be anti MS. Why are you not realizing the fact that Intels and AMDs processors are used by Macs and Linux. Or is it that just PC shipments where it was to be used for a Windows PC is going to be lesser now.
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Apple? Apple sales seemingly not affected by slump
Davewrite Updated - 28th Aug 2010
@redash79

Electronista article on same subject:

"Intel warns of low summer PC sales"

"Both Acer and Samsung are either known or believed to be lowering expectations for netbooks as customers either jump ship for the iPad.."

"The slump could mute earlier gains for many of the top tier companies but won't necessarily affect all. Apple has continued with above-average growth and so far hasn't shown signs of slowing down in the summer"
------

In recent years Windows PC sales have been distorted by the huge sales of cheap netbooks. Their higher range PCs have not been doing well for years. Now that iPad has taken a big chunk of netbook sales PC sales numbers have stalled.
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Adrian's bad post could translate into bad news for ZDNet
Johnny Vegas Updated - 27th Aug 2010
wow this was another really weak one. Could? Could impact ms, or could be just mac and linux servers that are down, or could be everything. Hmmmm which do you think is most likely? Yeah it's bad for ms... and apple and google and starbucks, gm, ge, oscar meyer, you, me, and everyone else. BUT MAKE SURE YOU CALL OUT MS!!! Sheesh... this is what happens when socialist policies take a foothold. Economies falter. Last time they tried this it turned what would have been a 12-18 month long recession into a decade long depresison. How about lets not do that again.
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Oink oink.
Lester Young 28th Aug 2010
@Johnny Vegas
Let the Wall Street elite waste capital on derivatives and other instruments that create no wealth (or actually destroy wealth), then blame the results on soslist bigguvment. Up yours.
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How is this an MS issue?
Cylon Centurion Updated - 27th Aug 2010
I still think Windows 7 will do just fine in the coming year. Windows XP is quickly becoming way past obsolete, and anyone still wishing to install/image XP on newer systems, might as well as just throw their money in the trash bins.

Also in now way shape or form does this article mention AMD, how is their outlook looking?
Again AKH proves that he has the journalist skills of a high school newspaper, but then saying he is a journalist isn't really fair to high schools because he's not a journalist, just a blogger.

Microsoft Windows 7 was bound to be a winner from the start. What you forget is that Microsoft Windows is not tied to only Intel. Their OS also works on AMD chips as well so if Intel is hurting AMD is there to pick up the slack. Its actually a pretty simple concept that I'm surprised you didn't get which brings us back to the high school newspaper arguement. You see how we are going in circles on this?

Go now, go prep another one of your Microsoft hate blogs, but this time consult a real high school newspaper so that you might actually sound like you know what your talking about.
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heh
CobraA1 28th Aug 2010
I don't think one weak quarter a disaster makes.

"Which leads us to the obvious question - what was driving PC and Windows 7 sales in the first place?"

Other than the blatantly obvious fact that computers have become a pervasive part of our society?

You been living under a rock or something?
I guess Apple don't use Intel chips(they use magic)!
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@stm24

Electronista article on same subject:

"Intel warns of low summer PC sales"

"Both Acer and Samsung are either known or believed to be lowering expectations for netbooks as customers either jump ship for the iPad.."

"The slump could mute earlier gains for many of the top tier companies but won't necessarily affect all. Apple has continued with above-average growth and so far hasn't shown signs of slowing down in the summer"
------
@Davewrite "first why you keep repeating that"
2nd- "Weaker than expected consumer demand for silicon from Intel (and AMD)". Consumer demand is Apple too! Not just HP, Dell and Acer.... I hope you get the point!
one less Intel chip, and one less Win7 license. Well, not all, but, some are substituting an iPad for a netbook or laptop.
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Nothin to worry...
deep@... 29th Aug 2010
MS already has sold million to consumers now its the corporate guys' turn and that is already starting from this quarter. so relax happy
As of today from investor reports MS sales are still slightly above projected. Unfortunately AMD nad ATI stocks are not doing so wel. And, while Intels projected earnings are slightly lower than expected their stock is still standing steady. So, no aparently MS nore anyone else has anything to worry about due to the drop in revinue, this is to be expected during a recession.
sorry Dave you didnt check your facts apple sales of smart phones (iphones) and Ipad is on the rise while system sales have dropped off drastically this year so far. Now since i use both types of computers (Mac and PC) the only reason for this drop I can see is apples refusal to make their systems more affordable during these tioght financial times especially since they no longer hold a signifigant advantage in the graphics design market.
The reality is that Intel aside, an increasingly larger number of people steal Windows rather than buy it, most are perfectly happy on XP, and businesses are tired of the insane licensing costs but have no choice but to pay them. Tablets and cell phones have made it fashionable to use Linux and Windows just can't continue to build on the old systems and old libraries. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know Windows has to change. The PC Windows OS that was tied to Intel is dying and they know it. But Microsoft has the capital to float along pending full implementation of a new product and a large enough customer base to exploit in the meantime to keep things going. So a slow down is neither unexpected, nor fatal to Windows franchise.

A move to the web will be a perfect excuse to dump backwards compatability on an emulator and move forward with something new. If you look at the growing trend coming out of Microsoft, the data center in Virginia, the move to integrate hot mail with Exchange, the change in interface in Office 2010, the live services, the introduction of Silverlight, etc. and the changes in the browser. Windows 9 might be the last Microsoft OS even based on Windows.

How ironic if Windows X was not even an OS in the traditional sense at all, but rather just another web OS like Chrome and completely web based. It certainly solves all their problems and explains the lack luster performance in Windows development. It's also why Windows 7 will brobably become the new XP eventually and Windows 9 the new WinME/Vista.

Maybe the best reason to upgrade now is that it may be a very long time before they actually make anything good again.
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Slow sells? Woopie....
Gis Bun 31st Aug 2010
I guess Mr. Kingsley-Hughes continues to dish out nothing but speculation. Slower sales doesn't mean a problem for Windows 7 - and if it does, it's only temporary. Companies know they have to get off Windows XP soon as XP dies within 4 years - unless they are idiots who are still running SP2 on their XP systems or like to wait to the last moment

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