ie8 fix
madison

Hardware 2.0

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

iOS and Android dominate smartphone market, but how long until Apple feels the pinch?

By | December 14, 2011, 6:39am PST

Summary: Apple and Google has forced every major handset provider through a major transition.

As RIM’s market share goes into freefall, the smartphone market is a two-horse race between Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android platforms, and according to data by NPD, no other player has a market share worth mentioning.

Android’s market share grew 28% between January and October of this year to command 53% of the US smartphone market, while iOS was up by 38% to grab 29% of the market.

“The competitive landscape for smartphones, which has been reshaped by Apple and Google, has ultimately forced every major handset provider through a major transition,” said Ross Rubin, executive director, Connected Intelligence for The NPD Group. “For many of them, 2012 will be a critical year in assessing how effective their responses have been.”

One of those hardest hit is RIM, down a massive 59% and now has to make do with a market share of 10%. Even RIM’s crop of new handsets such as the Bold 9930 or the Torch 9810 could do little to prevent the slide.

“Few companies have felt the impact of the shift to touch user interfaces and larger screen sizes as negatively as RIM, but the company is beginning anew with a strong technical foundation and many paths to the platform,” said Rubin.

Microsoft isn’t doing very well either. While it’s expected that the doomed Windows Mobile platform would see a slide (to 3%), Windows Phone 7 has only managed to grow from 1% in 2010 to 2% (though you could look at that as a 100% growth).

According to Rubin “Nokia and Microsoft must build from almost nothing to carve out success between the consistency of the iPhone and the flexibility of Android.”

Symbian and Palm/webOS are also in decline, as we’d expect for dying platforms.

Looking at that chart above, you really get a feeling for how things have changed since 2006. All the big players from back then have been totally crushed by Android and iOS. With RIM well on the way to a single-digit market share, and Windows Phone 7 chuntering along at 2%, I think it’s safe to say that Android and iOS will continue to dominate for some time.

2012 will be interesting. Since there’s much much market share to crush from the competition, how long until Android starts putting major pressure on iOS and its market share?

(via BGR)

Related:

Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily e-mail newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.

Topics

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

51
Comments

Join the conversation!

Just In

Android is Dominating, Apple Barely Keeping Up
techenduser 22nd Dec
Android is outselling Apple by 2 to 1. Apple is not even in the competition. The only reason they are selling period is because of the fanboys which is getting smaller by the day. The entire Apple setup is a turn off. It is controlling and isolating. The iphone GUI is so dated it is pathetic. Who wants to be holding that dinosaur in 2012?
Another useless bunch of worry troll BS from the geniuses at zdnet. Desperate for page views I see... Sorry I clicked. Get back to us when Android phones and the Android OS become as profitable as iOS on iPhones, iPads, and iPod touches.
0 Votes
+ -
Sorry I took the time
rhonin 14th Dec
@Delvardo
To read your lame post.
But once I did, just had to reply wink
@Delvardo Profit is a different issue. Just look at the Apple computer marketshare. They've been at no more than 10% for decades. Through profitable and unprofitable times. Windows machines have always had a huge marketshare because of customizability and price. It's also why you have the most and best software designed for that platform. Software vendors care more about a huge user base than anything else.
0 Votes
+ -
"most and best software"
baggins_z 14th Dec
most, maybe. Best? Hardly.
@Delvardo
Thanks for your concern, yes Apple executives should continue to remain filthy rich. Seems like they could reduce profit margins a bit so that the kids in china aren't working for peanuts in unsafe, low paying conditions, as executive pockets are lined with more billions. Will be interesting to see if that green bar continues clamping down on the rest of the pile.
@Delvardo - just curious, what's the thinking process that says profitability means better? Are you making a very specific statement as a mobile app developer? If not, why would you care which is more profitable?
@Delvardo You talk about profitability as if you are profiting. You are the one they are profiting off charging you more for less. Apple computers come with low specs and the operating system is extremely dated.
"...how long until Android starts putting major pressure on iOS and its market share?"

Huh? Android is already putting major pressure on iOS and its market share. Without Android, iOS market share would have been over 70% by now.
@SleepyBob
No, Apple is building phones as fast as it possibly can and still gradually rolling out the iPhone to new telcos. Meanwhile, every other OEM simply swapped out their prehistoric Palm/Symbian/Motorola/WinMo OS for Android and they were instantly available on every telco anywhere. The iPhone 4S is the first iPHone that Apple can sell to virtually every telco everywhere.

Also, iOS is much, much more than iPhone. iPads and iPod touches are growing virtually unopposed and Android still has nothing competitive. Apple is building an entire ecosystem and is making money on every phase of the ecosystem. Google is throwing an OS against the wall and seeing what sticks. Yes, that OS is on an amazing number of smartphones, but nothing else about the ecosystem has been very successful--not the tablets, the media players, the TVbox, the appstore, or the media store.
And let's not forget a couple things:

1) The lesser controls on the Android app market is leading to more malware. How many bad experiences before a user ditches their Android phone?

2) These are the U.S. numbers. How fast are iOS and Android each growing abroad?
@Synthmeister The iPod touch is growing? Really? The PMP marketing is shrinking because of smart phones.
@Synthmeister I guess you live in iWorld and not on planet Earth. Android is eating Apple market share left and right and from all directions. It's obvious with smarphones. So much so that Apple was forced to keep older iPhone models this time and discount them for the first time to compete.

And on the tablet side, Android continues to eat up market share. With the upcoming Android 4.0, it will only accelerate. Just look at the pre-sale orders of the upcoming ASUS Transformer Prime. Pre-sale orders were sold out in a few days.

Apple's one size fits all approach is failing in the face of Android's open design concept where mobile devices don't have to be a certain size or have the same hardware.

Personally, I'll be moving from my year old Dell Streak 5" to the Samsung Galaxy Note 5.3" in about 6 months. You have heard of the Galaxy Note, right? You know that device that works both as a phone and tablet and has a built-in stylus. Exquisite tech. happy
"Apple was forced to keep older iPhone models this time and discount them for the first time to compete."mrxxxman

The iPhone GS - a 2 year old phone - has reportedly sold 2 million units in the first two months of the quarter. If Apple's 2 year old phone is outselling the majority of current Android handsets, then I don't think Apple has much to worry about.
"Apple was forced to keep older iPhone models this time and discount them for the first time to compete."mrxxxman

The iPhone GS - a 2 year old phone - has reportedly sold 2 million units in the first two months of the quarter. If Apple's 2 year old phone is outselling the majority of current Android handsets, then I don't think Apple has much to worry about.
0 Votes
+ -
Why would you downplay it?
toddybottom Updated - 14th Dec
"Windows Phone 7 has only managed to grow from 1% in 2010 to 2% (though you could look at that as a 100% growth)."

When Mac share grows from 2% to 4% everyone was cheering about Apple's 100% growth. It is easy to show big growth numbers when you start from a pitiful marketshare.
@toddybottom When the default is as ubiquitous as Windows in a market with next to no competition 2% to 4% is meaningful. When you are Microsoft and your total smartphone share (WM & WP7) goes from 8% to 5%, you are doing terrible. Ancient Windows Mobile is at 3%!
@toddybottom
Apple adds around a $1 billion in revenue to its bottom line when the Mac grows 1%. Selling 1% more WinMo licenses at $8 - $15 a pop does almost nothing for MS.
@toddybottom - I would bet that a good percentage of that comes from people leaving WinMo, which is not the greenfield MS needs to become a player.
0 Votes
+ -
It is Android feeling the pinch not Apple
marthill Updated - 14th Dec
Err Adrian, can't you read that chart?

If you look at it a bit closer you will see that Android is plateauing while Apple's iOS is accelerating. It is Android that is starting to feel the pinch not Apple.

Android has gone from 350% marketshare growth in 2009 to 367% growth in 2010 but then plunged to only 28% growth in 2011.

In contrast the iPhone's marketshare which shrank 14% in 2010 has surged 38% so far this year compared to the whole of 2010 and that doesn't even include the bulk of iPhone 4s sales in the lead-up to Christmas.

Now part of Android's slowing is to be expected as the platform matures but that only highlights how impressive the iPhone's gains this year have been.

Of course when you add in the full iOS platform with the iPad and iPod touch both dominating in tablets and mini-tablets, your comment about Android putting pressure on iOS is even less likely.
0 Votes
+ -
@marthill - That would skew things. I would think they would be, given when the 4S pre-order/sales hit. Android didn't have a comparable heavy-sales phone in that same time period - there was a lull leading up to the new ICS handsets, which are selling very well.

Will be an interesting next few months to track - that'll put all the jockeying in perspective.
@daboochmeister
The 4S was only released on Octobr 18 so only a couple of weeks of 4S sales are included in the 2011 total. In contrast, a good 6 months of iPhone 4 sales are included the 2010 figures. This makes NPD's figures for the growth of the iPhone's marketshare up till October 2011 even more astounding.
Android's growth is purely by luck and not by the merit of the platform itself. There was a huge vaccum in smart touch screen phones when apple first lauched it in 2007

If Windows phone 7 was launched in 2008, It would have gained 70 percent of the smart phone market. Microsoft can bang the head for the lost oppurtunity.
@owlnet
If it was pure "luck" then how did it overtake iOS? Surely, if it was pure luck, they would have gained significant market share but iOS would be the one with 53% market share, not Android. Luck can put you in a good place ... it can't put you in the lead and keep you there.
@Ididar Who's making more money off their OS? Android or Apple?

Hmm..considering we're more valuable than most world governments I'd say WINNING!
It was not by pure luck...but that doesn't mean it was fully due to merit, either. One big reason was the openness of the platform (open-source Android OS), but the openness is also responsible for inconsistencies (fragmentation) and vulnerabilities (unvetted apps in the App Market --> malware). The "strength" of open has become a weakness. Can it mature and become secure and robust? Probably. But time-to-market is wasting meanwhile, so choices were made. How many bad experiences will a user suffer before ditching a malware-laden Android phone?
@owlnet Blame the monkey boy who laughed at

iPod
iPhone
iPad....

It's a wonder Microtards are too stupid to call for Ballmer's resignation or why the board hasn't thrown him out.

NO BRAINSSS
@owlnet I wouldn't go that far. It does take some work to suck the least of all the alternatives to iOS. Android does some things really well.

Windows Phone 7 should do pretty well when it is fully matured. It has the deep pockets of Microsoft behind it to stay on the market while the kinks are worked out. It is novel and interesting and I think many people will try it in the next upgrade cycle.
The "deep pockets of Microsoft" are no longer as deep as you'd like to think! Windows Vista was a bomb, Windows 7 uptake has lagged (most are fine with staying on XP, new machine pre-installs are the bulk of Win 7 sales to date), Windows 8 is a complete step backwards in usability (IMO). Office? Who needs it? There are compatible apps on both desktop, web, and mobile. The cash flow is not growing...it's slowly dwindling. Projects are being shut down. Next up: Windows 8 Mobile. See above for sufficient reasons...2% ain't gonna pay the bills.
RIM - DEAD
Android - Fragmented, wild west of phone OSes, people wanting standardization go to iOS
iOS - Will continue to dominate mobile phone landscape and is standardized and apps work across the board on the most recent versions of the OS
Windows Phone 7 - Dying a slow death...with Microsoft developing apps for iOS and Office going to iOS....more nails in the coffin...

It's going to basically be iOS vs Android..the rest are dead.
How about another chart showing world sales as opposed to U.S. only?
0 Votes
+ -
Loverock must be HATING that chart!
@ZombieSteveJobs Careful, you will get a long paragraph about how we should all trade in the iOS and Droid phones we love for a WP7 phone that offers [insert useless, trivial feature here]
@ZombieSteveJobs

Hey not bad progress after 35 years?

Also thanks for motivating me to post this: http://www.zdnet.com/tb/1-110702#1_110702_2255651

Enjoy!

~~~~~~~~~~
I've heard the best form of birth control is to point and laugh.
~ Dan Newcombe
0 Votes
+ -
2012 - the year of the infringement lawsuits going to trial.

That has the potential to have a bigger impact.
(Hmm. Trying this again. I apologize if this double posts)

As long as Apple (iPhone or iPad) is the standard by which Android is compared, iOS will never really feel the pinch. Plus, as long as the development dollars continue to be dominated by Apple and iOS, there is no pinch in sight. Track that market share if you want to see when Apple will feel a pinch.

This is a branding problem, not a consumable product market share problem. Even Android makers compare their offerings to Apple (such as Samsung's new ad campaign). Or they don't really know what their devices do (such as Motorola's dismal attempts with the Zoom and Razr). Amazon is the first Android device to avoid that trap even to the extent of offering it's own software market place, which I think will work well for them. As a matter of fact Amazon isn't even focusing on the Fire being an Android device. That is just tertiary, and as it should be.

As it is, almost all Android device makers only know how to copy everyone else and compete on price. The real question should be how long until Samsung and HTC (the only two device makers making a profit, and Samsung only be diversifying beyond Android) feel the pinch from all the other Android device makers?

Joe
@jfutral Compete on price? Have you seen how much the Galaxy Nexus costs? Droid Razr? Bionic? s2?
@kingcobra23, Those are good points. I also usually point to those devices when people start spouting how Apple is too expensive. And I applaud Samsung and Moto for having the confidence to try and hit the high margin market. But these are also newer devices and according to history, it shouldn't be too long before the "two for one" and other fire sales pricing hits those devices, and primarily because of the glut of Android phones available.

While I don't buy that Android/iOS is anywhere near comparable to Windows/Mac (Apple and iOS developers are making all the money, which is entirely unlike MS and their developers making all the money, plus Apple never commanded the market like they are with iOS), there is one area where the same thing IS playing out and that is the non-Apple hardware side.

Just like there was always a new flavour of PC hardware that was all the rage--whether you are talking Compaq, Packard Bell, Acer, Gateway, Dell--the story is always the same. They are on top until someone makes a cheaper device. Android device makers will suffer the same revolving door, race to the bottom that PC makers suffer.

Great for the consumer's pocketbook. Lousy for innovation. So as I said, Samsung's and HTC's competition isn't Apple. Their competition is other Android device makers. Which is probably why Samsung is focusing on Apple in their new ad campaign. They WANT to be compared to Apple. In a way it is saying "We're not cheap crap like the rest of the Android handset market. We're like Apple".

Joe
...for each of the mobile OSs. Isn't that a pretty good indication of what future market share will look like?
Androids market share has been because you walk into a store and 90% of phones run Android. It's not because people break down the doors and say I want ANDROID. The only people that do that are techies that hate Apple. I would say on average 1 in 2 people don't care what is on the phone. They just want a camera, music, several basic apps. If you provide that and a cheap price they will get the phone. That's it...no magic here.
0 Votes
+ -
Really?
itpro_z 14th Dec
@johnsuarez10, I see far more ads for Android than Apple, and I know more people with Android devices than iOS, just as the chart shows. Android users are just as likely to show off and brag about their new device as Apple users, and when I ask they always seem to know what version of Android they are using. I would even go so far as to state that Android has far more name recognition than iOS.
@itpro_z

I have met several that thought they knew. What they knew was:

1) Android does over the air updates.

2) Android had verson 3.1 out.

3) therefore the must have Honecomb.

They're we're unable to describe why they were not "updated". They got almost mad when they found out they were only on Froyo.
@itpro_z

I have met several that thought they knew. What they knew was:

1) Android does over the air updates.

2) Android had verson 3.1 out.

3) therefore the must have Honecomb.

They're we're unable to describe why they were not "updated". They got almost mad when they found out they were only on Froyo.
@johnsuarez10

"Androids market share has been because you walk into a store and 90% of phones run Android"

You mean like walking into a PC shop with Windows everywhere ?

Your right that people want something that just works well.

The "Gadget Show" (UK) test of smart-phones the other night found that the one that worked best overall was the Samsung Galaxy Nexus
@johnsuarez10 I don't fully agree with your point. Even Nokia's gawd-awful OS got a faithful following after a long period of time. People do start to develop a sense of loyalty after a while. While I think your point was valid in Android's early days, it is probably less true these days. People tend to stick with what's familiar. Not always, but often.

However I do think your last sentence is still relevant and spot on. I think a lot of people _are_ just looking for a phone+ fairly unimportant, non-cutting edge features , but old-school feature phone selection is quickly dwindling or the transition to smartphone is easily enough sold. I don't think all Android sales are specifically smartphone-desire driven. Also probably why the iPhone 3gs is selling so well.

Joe
I don't care, as long as Microsoft has NO, repeat, NO market presence in mobileOS.
Wp7 must have failed. Even Samsungs BADA Outsells wp7
I would like to see the chart in this article readjusted for the growth shown in this market. When market share may have gone down on, I wonder what the numbers are as far as units sold. The market has grown a lot over the years covered by this chart, and iOS and Android have accounted for most of this growth.

Having a smaller piece of the pie doesn't mean as much if the pie is growing very fast and one OSes unit sales continue roughly flat.
And Android will slowly dominate the rest of the iOS marketshare. Just as Windows did to Apple back in the 90's.
0 Votes
+ -
Android is outselling Apple by 2 to 1. Apple is not even in the competition. The only reason they are selling period is because of the fanboys which is getting smaller by the day. The entire Apple setup is a turn off. It is controlling and isolating. The iphone GUI is so dated it is pathetic. Who wants to be holding that dinosaur in 2012?

Join the conversation!

Formatting +
BB Codes - Note: HTML is not supported in forums
  • [b] Bold [/b]
  • [i] Italic [/i]
  • [u] Underline [/u]
  • [s] Strikethrough [/s]
  • [q] "Quote" [/q]
  • [ol][*] 1. Ordered List [/ol]
  • [ul][*] · Unordered List [/ul]
  • [pre] Preformat [/pre]
  • [quote] "Blockquote" [/quote]
ie8 fix
Click Here
ie8 fix

The best of ZDNet, delivered

ZDNet Newsletters

Get the best of ZDNet delivered straight to your inbox

Facebook Activity

White Papers, Webcasts, & Resources
ie8 fix
ie8 fix