iPad 3 will help Apple grab 70 percent of the tablet market in 2012

iPad 3 will help Apple grab 70 percent of the tablet market in 2012

Summary: Android tablet makers are being pushed into the low-cost, low-profit-margin end of the market, forcing them compete against each other rather than against Apple direct.

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The iPad 3 is set to propel Apple into a position where it can capture in excess of 70 percent of the tablet market during 2012, according to market research firm IMS Research.

IMS Research predicts that some 70 million iPads will be shipped in 2012, a figure that would represent a 71 percent year-on-year growth for the tablet. This massive increase is being put down to the even bigger gap that Apple will put between itself and the competition with the launch of the iPad 3.

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"There is a large customer base loyal to Apple products that have been waiting for the latest tablet," said Gerry Xu, PC Market Analyst at IMS Research. "Many owners of the iPad 1 are also expected to upgrade to the latest release. In addition to this consumer demand, growth is also forecast as a result of sales into enterprise and education."

While other players have entered since the iPad's launch, such as Amazon's Kindle Fire, according to Xu none pose a significant threat to the iPad's continued dominance in the tablet market. In fact, he expects the market share of Android tablets to fall from 35 percent in 2011 to 26 percent in 2012 as they fail to compete against the user experience offered by the iPad.

What's worse for Android tablet makers is that the iPad is pushing them into the low-cost, low-profit-margin end of the market and making them compete against each other rather than against Apple direct.

This was Apple's winning strategy when it came to dominating the media player and smartphone markets, and it looks like it is now set to work with tablets.

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Topics: Hardware, Apple, iPad, Laptops, Mobility, Tablets

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19 comments
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  • I think it will go beyond 70%

    One of the biggest drawbacks from colleagues I hear from them why they won't buy an iPad is that it is not in HD..people have come to expect HD quality now that LCD and LED TVs are in abundance...

    If iPad 3 is in true HD retina, I say over 70%..maybe even 80%
    http404
    • I thought it already was at 70%

      but the way the bloggers throw numbers around here, never really sure.
      William Farrel
    • It depends how narrow you define the market

      Of the dozens of close friends I have, only 2 have ipads in the first place. The others aren't waiting for a shinier ipad -- they are waiting for cheaper options. If you narrowly define the market as being "those willing to pay >$500 for a tablet", then maybe. But that market segment is pretty saturated...the room for growth is mostly in the low-end where cheap is deemed good enough.
      jvitous
      • Then you won't want a Windows tablet

        Price point is going to be well above what iPad costs at the lowest ($499), and that's just because of the power you'll have to have under the hood to run Windows 8 and the storage you'll need to accommodate it plus memory.
        http404
      • We don't know what a Windows tablet will cost yet

        @http404, we don't know. Once we have some WOA (Windows on ARM) devices, then we'll see what the cost is. The Samsung Slate I have with Windows 8 consumer preview does well with battery life.
        grayknight-22253692004129760887070084760051
  • What Gap?

    I have no doubt that Apple will sell millions of iPads. Betting against Apple has lately become an exercise in futility.

    That said, what is "This massive increase is being put down to the even bigger gap that Apple will put between itself and the competition with the launch of the iPad 3" based upon? What gap will there be between the iPad 3 and rival tablets, other than the reality distortion field that Apple surrounds its products with?
    x I'm tc
    • Loverock keeps betting against it

      And keeps losing.
      http404
    • @jdakula

      That said, came from IMS Research. http://imsresearch.com/press-release/Apple_to_Seize_More_than_70_of_World_Tablet_PC_Market_in_2012_with_New_iPad_3

      The opening arguments of this piece is paraphrased neatly, and in sequence, by the link i pasted. No reason for me to copy and paste where the paraphrasing from this pseudo journalist.

      That means this reality distortion field is being generated by IMS Research and not from Apple. Read that article, not this opinion piece
      richvball44
  • Wednesday fantasy

    Market is growing and Apple has no way of capturing extra 8% of the growing market. Microsoft may crash Apple's party with Windows 8 though. Netbooks struggled with Linux and took off with windows. The same could happen with Android tablets and then it would be really difficult for Apple to gain any significant market share.
    However, Apple lovers can always split market into segments and pick the "winning" segment. It does not matter how much market share Apple has ;)
    paul2011
    • Windows and Android have strong growth potential

      Windows has the potential to take high and low end of the market AND create a new much higher end (where you use it for heavy duty stuff - even developing software). Yet Windows will work with ARM and Atom - very low end cheap stuff. Android also only gets better, so it should absorb most of the market growth at much lower price points.
      Schoolboy Bob
  • For now, but eventually, there won't be enough to differentiate them.

    And then people will start buying cheaper. Apple will still make tons of money even if they only have a niche market, it just won't be a windfall like now.
    DevGuy_z
  • What happend to their 98% share?

    It wasn't all too long ago they held over 90% of the share.
    jonandkelly
  • Dominating the smartphone market? Say What?

    and in regards to your last comment? I did not know Apple was dominating the smartphone market? News to me since Android is the dominate plaform.
    jonandkelly
  • Yawn

    Sorry to tell you dude but this is a Zero sum gain for apple.

    This is just a natural evolution of the product and from a technology perspective (minus a nifty screen), it only gets them to where their competition already is.
    Merrr
  • Yawn part 2..

    Btw, a 499 price point just shows us that they are obviously under some pricing pressure from competition if they have to hold that line.
    Merrr
  • Market leader?

    [quote]This was Apples winning strategy when it came to dominating the media player and smartphone markets, and it looks like it is now set to work with tablets.[/quote]

    Media player market yes, smartphone market no. While it is true that Apple is a leader in innovation and design, android has slowly over the last few years chipped away Apples lead in the smartphone market. There are many reasons for that I will not go into here. It has mostly to do with Apples company policy I believe. And Apples way of doing things will hurt them in the end in the tablet market as well.
    ckn71
  • Ya. Right.

    70 million iPads to be sold in 2012. What drugs is this company on? With competition from Android tablets and possibly a late year "attack" by Windows 8 tablets. I don't think so.
    Gisabun
  • curiosity

    first we had;
    personal computers
    notebooks
    tablets-I'm speaking of the stylus based type
    music players
    netbooks-have they died out yet? serious question since i do not know
    tablets again-gesture based
    the above list may be inaccurate and incomplete, so forgive me in advance. Please fill free to add to the list or correct it
    What does any one think will be the next big commodity compute type device?
    richvball44
  • Where is the journalism?

    Who in their right mind believes a word of this article? Why would anyone want a single company to own 70% of the tablet sales?. That would be bad for the consumer. I am of the opinion that there is not a single shred of journalistic integrity here at ZDnet. Bias, innaccuracies, and lies are becoming far too common on this website.
    adholt