iPhone - The bets are on!

iPhone - The bets are on!

Summary: BetUS.com has posted odds on a variety of scenarios for the iPhone.

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TOPICS: Apple, iPhone, Mobility
4

BetUS.com has posted odds on a variety of scenarios for the iPhone.  I've added my thoughts and comments below each entry in italics.

  • Consumers are reported camping out waiting for an iPhone - 3/1 Almost a certainty.  I can even think of a few on the ZDNet crew who might have to get the sleeping bag out!
  • Initial iPhones get recalled - 30/1 I'd have placed this as nearer 200/1.  Any recall would surely shake investor confidence in Apple and short of iPhones going China Syndrome on people, I don't see a recall being likely.
  • iPhone sells at least 12 Million units in 2008 - 5/6 No way.
  • Apple’s stock jumps at least 10% in value in regards to the price on 6/30/07 - 1/2 Possible, but I'll be surprised if the peak isn't followed by some sort of correction.
  • Consumers pay at least three times the original price ($1500) on ebay - 2/1 Sure, there are plenty of suckers about.
  • The screen breaks/cracks like first generation nano - 150/1 I think that there will be stories of breakage, but these will be isolated cases or as a result to stress-testing.
  • There are mass reports of the battery life being less than the promised 8 hours -10/1 Likely ...
  • Someone is trampled while trying to get an iPhone - 20/1 Nah, Apple users are a gentle sort.  Well, as long as you don't say that Leopard looks like Vista ...
  • iPhone spontaneously combusts - 150/1 I hope not, for Apple's sake.
  • How many iPhones will Apple sell in the first month? Over 1.2 Million Units - 5/6 Under 1.2 Million Units - 5/6 My money would go on Apple selling about 1 million in the first month.

Note:  For the record, I don't own any Apple stocks and I don't plan on placing any bets.

Thoughts?

Topics: Apple, iPhone, Mobility

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4 comments
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  • 1M presold already

    I don't know where he got his information, but indicates that over 1M are presold already. If much of what he writes is accurate

    http://www.tomrafteryit.net/apples-iphone-launch-a-disaster-in-the-making/

    Look for iPhone mania to make the news as the home based activation leads to much angst. Activating a SIM based phone, with phone number port is NOT easy, takes a lot of input (the number port part) and that's why the salesperson does it for the customer. (GSM). In the CDMA world, Over The Air Activation is king, and the entire network is geared up for home delivery of mobiles, turn it on, and the network programs your phone.

    It will be interesting to read all the Monday morning (literally) quarterbacks outlining the good, the bad and the ugly with the launch of the iPhone.

    My prediction, initial (up to one month), iPhone will fly off the shelves, but slow dramatically after that.

    I wonder why they aren't taking any bets on a FedEx truck being jacked?

    TripleII
    TripleII-21189418044173169409978279405827
    • FedEx? Because.

      That's hit and miss.

      The best bet would be to have an inside guy, like in almost almost all armored car robberies, to hook you up with a five finger discount on a gross of them.
      Hallowed are the Ori
  • "There are mass reports of the battery life being less than the promised...

    8 hours"

    How exactly does one define "mass reports"? I think this is more of an indication that they expect the media to take a story and let it get out of control, rather look to see if there is any truth behind it. The actual truth will be more difficult to discern, although I'm sure there will be some non-biased hardware websites (like maybe Anandtech or Tom's) who will give us some numbers that are close to the truth.
    Michael Kelly
  • Responses

    Camping out will definitely happen (plenty of morons out there).

    Phone recall--won't happen. There may be a lot of software and firmware updates, but a recall is unlikely.

    iPhone sells at least 12 Million units in 2008--does this mean it will have sold a total of 12 million units in 1.5 years, or it will sell that many in the calendar year 2008? Remember it will go international in 2008. I think the total number will easily be reached. You're talking about 1% of the market. Do you really think that's out of reach?

    Ebay--will there really be shortages? Businessweek said Apple has 3 million ready to go. Those in line might be surprised when you can just walk into the store a few days later and get one.

    Battery Life--does any cel phone's (or laptop's) battery life match up to what is claimed in ads?

    Tough call on the first month's sales.
    tic swayback