Hardware 2.0

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Phone 7 will fail

By Adrian Kingsley-Hughes | May 19, 2010, 8:48am PDT

Summary: Microsoft has many miles of bad road to cover if it’s to make any headway in the smartphone market. As I see it, if users are to have any confidence in Windows Phone 7, Microsoft is going to have to offer users some guarantees that they are buying into a platform that will be around for a few years.

Microsoft has many miles of bad road to cover if it’s to make any headway in the smartphone market. As I see it, if users are to have any confidence in Windows Phone 7, Microsoft is going to have to offer users some guarantees that they are buying into a platform that will be around for a few years.

Lets face it, Windows Mobile is dead. But the problem is, rather than give is a decent burial and give users the space they need to grief and move on, Microsoft has instead decided to leave its rotting corpse in plain view. You can go out today and buy a handset powered by Windows Mobile 6.5 and know that as soon as Windows Phone 7 handsets make an appearance, the old platform is a gonner.

And that’s been the problem with all Microsoft mobile platforms for years now. Each revision has meant upset, upheaval and having to spend more dough on applications because the old ones wouldn’t run on the new platform. Rinse and repeat …

Part of the success of the iPhone platform is the fact that while we’ve seen several hardware and OS iterations, the platform has remained consistent as far as users are concerned, and stuff that worked in the beginning has carried on working. Even iPhone OS 4, which we expect to make an appearance mid June, will still install on first-gen iPhones and iPod touch devices, albeit with some features not present (such as multitasking).

The problem with Microsoft’s approach to mobile is that, for a user’s perspective at any rate, the company lacks a clear vision and direction. rather than build on past (modest) successes, the company is continually back to the drawing board. Users have never been able to rely on having an upgrade path to new OS releases, making each handset purchase a one-off investment with a lifespan that ends with a new release.

Even Microsoft’s current plan seems confused. The Windows Phone 7 platform and the Kin platform will run side-by-side up until some point in the future (which may be never) when the two paths coalesce. Even in a highly competitive marketplace, Microsoft is still choosing to put its energy behind two platforms instead of one.

We need some guarantees from Microsoft that the Windows Phone 7 platform will offer users a stable platform that goes beyond the lifespan of the current platform and onto Windows Phone 8 or whatever it ends up being called. Applications need to have a lifespan that goes beyond the life of the OS installed on the handset, and the same goes for user data and settings.

Without the guarantee of a platform that can outlast a single release, and handsets that will truly be upgradable to the new handsets (rather than letting OEMs handle this), Microsoft will end up being handed its hat and escorted out of the mobile game.

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Platform, Smart Phone, Handset, Microsoft Corp., Microsoft Windows, Cellular Phones, Operating Systems, Software, Consumer Electronics, Personal Technology, Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Phone 7 will fail

sharkboyjohn 18th Sep 2010

It's all about the development tools. The fact is, things that take months to do in Xcode can be done in days with Visual Studio and Blend.

Once consumers see the apps screaming out of phones, they will not need anything else.

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Well, not really.

matthew_maurice 19th May 2010

According to the iPhone OS 4 page on Apple's website, compatibility is limited to iPhone 3G and later devices (iPhone 3GS, 2nd-generation iPod Touch, and iPad), and 3G won't get multi-tasking. Not quite as impressive, but still pretty good in comparison to number of Android devices that were never able to get beyond their original OS version.

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I think you said it there

John Zern 19th May 2010

Without the guarantee of a platform that can outlast a single release, and handsets that will truly be upgradable to the new handsets (rather than letting OEMs handle this)

With Windows OSs on servers desktops, laptops, ect, this can and is done by the end user. With Smartphones, this has traditionally been carried out by the phone manufacturer, which would rather sell you a new phone with the upgrade, as opposed to just giving out an upgrade to the OS.

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Pho

gtdworak 19th May 2010

Ah, Microsoft, the masters of vaporware. There was a time when people would hold on with baited breath for some new product from the Redmond boys, only to find out later it was either cancelled or so lame as to be worthless. I just can't see how the could possibly come up with something that could even come close to say the iPhone. Microsoft just isn't very good at replicating other companies technologies and innovations. With Ballmer running the show, they've completely lost their ability at being able to innovate in anything. With Apple's three year head start, major iPhone OS update this summer, I can't see them producing anything that will be much better then lame at best. Even after Apple releases their new 4.0 phone OS this summer, they'll be working on 5.0. The only way I see Microsoft succeeding in the future is when they replace that inept baffoon Ballmer with a true visionary genius.

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Yawn.

ericesque 19th May 2010

@gtdworak Microsoft's customer satisfaction rates seem to disprove your theory that they need new leadership. What product has Microsoft released since Ballmer has been at the helm that hasn't received glowing review from anyone not expressly biased against Microsoft? Name one. You go dig and we'll all wait.

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You'll not hear it from them

John Zern 19th May 2010

You have to remember, when MS puts out something that does "OK", it's labeled as a Failure, but let Apple put out something that does "OK", it becomes a "hobby".

If Google does it, it usually becomes a privacy concern later on down the road, or just gets labeled "Beta" happy

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I predict Windows Phone 7 will be about as popular...

OS Reload 19th May 2010

...as a beer mug with a hole in the bottom.

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So you think it'll be a popular as Linux?

John Zern 19th May 2010

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Linux is quite popular, if it were not you couldn't find it everywhere

OS Reload 19th May 2010

but unlike Microsoft's bling or Apple's fanaticism, Linux's popularity manifests itself in subtle ways. It takes an educated eye to spot its presence.

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Phone 7 will fail

Rama.NET 19th May 2010

@OS Reload
Yeah thats why it is limited to only FOSS zealots and their kin.
--Ram--

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I thought Microsoft has already talked about OS updates

ericesque 19th May 2010

and said that they will be controlling the roll outs through an OS update mechanism, NOT OEMs.
Microsoft's track record of providing firmware/os updates for Zune devices bodes well for Windows Phone 7. I, for one, will have no reservation about the phone-- except that darned $30/month data plan :P

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Phone 7 will fail

Loverock Davidson 19th May 2010

Microsoft is going to have to offer users some guarantees that they are buying into a platform that will be around for a few years.

They already have, its called Microsoft Windows. How long has this platform been available? For some 20 or 30 years now? Your beef is that current Windows mobile is going to be gone when Windows Phone 7 arrives. That is how it works. You get rid of the old technology when the new one supersedes it. I really don't understand how you can say Microsoft doesn't have a clear vision of their mobile platform. Its been outlined before, and they are going to do a unified approach on it. The new UI is great. They didn't invest all this money in Windows Phone 7 just to drop it in a month after release.

AKH, your fear is that Windows Phone 7 might actually be good and take market share away from the competitors. Rest assured you don't have to worry with Windows Phone 7.

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Buy only if it meets your needs NOW

bmgoodman 19th May 2010

Don't buy based on some future capabilities. They may never materialize. Buy it ONLY if it meets your needs NOW. Then, IF they update/upgrade your phone later, you'll be that much happier. And if they don't, you should still be fine.

I can't speak for the iPhone, but in over 10 years I've had 4 different models, and not ONCE has AT&T permitted me to upgrade anything. Each phone was no better the day I dumped it than the day I brought it home.

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funny ....

wkulecz 19th May 2010

That Windows Mobile would use the consumer unfriendly throw-away model when their bread and butter Windows largely won the OS wars by being most compatible with the old legacy DOS apps. They've obviously put great effort into running 32-bit XP apps on Windows 7, so this Windows Mobile thing just has me shaking my head "what were they thinking?"

I've personally got zero interest in "smart phones" but we are in the process of starting development of a smart phone app and have chosen Android (Google Nexus) for the prototype precisely because of the "dead-end" of what we could buy now with Windows Mobile.

Windows Mobile would have been easier on paper, but this incompatibility at the start was a total deal breaker.

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Phone 7 will fail

de-void-21165590650301806002836337787023 20th May 2010

@wkulecz - The fact that your Nexus is essentially already dead *and* superseded by better devices calls into question the decision you made and the assertions you're making.

MS (finally) understands that the Windows Mobile platform was too complex, too costly and too limited to pursue. They've had the guts to start again with a completely new OS kernel (WinCE 7.0) and app platform (built on XNA and Silverlight) that provides a fresh, clean start for WinPhone as a platform.

This is a very shrewd move and one that will allow anyone who's already a .NET developer (or any developer who can learn C# - which means ALL developers) to easily transfer their skills to the new phone platform.

I agree that MS has an enormous challenge in front of them to excite the developer audience, but don't forget - this is PRECISELY where Microsoft's core strength and core audience is : developers.

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developers developers developers!!

keoz 20th May 2010

@de-void exactly happy

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Pho

the.ksmm 20th May 2010

@wkulecz This is my biggest gripe with the Windows Phone 7 idea so far. I can still run many thirty year old DOS programs on Windows 7, but the Windows Mobile apps I donwloaded this month won't work on WP7? Huh?

I suspect that their thinking was that the base of Windows Mobile users that they would potentially alienate with the move is small compared to the pool of users they hope to attract with it. That's the only way it makes sense to me.

I don't fully share @de-void's optimism, but I hope he's right.

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Windows Phone 7 is unfit for human consumption

gjafg 19th May 2010

You'd better take a close look at the latest development version of Windows Phone 7. It's still in alpha, and a complete buggy mess. It is not going to be ready this year. There will have to be a delay until 2011.

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Pho

Rama.NET 19th May 2010

@Market Analyst
You don't have a clue about Windows Phone 7. The other day you lied about not replacing default search engine on Windows Phone 7, but the carriers and device makers can change it. I don't see any reference to a mandatory Bing on their license anywhere. You have no clue at all about Microsoft products, so stop your f****n lies.
--Ram--

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Still in Alpha eh?

Cylon Centurion 20th May 2010

@Market Analyst

Last I heard it was in the RC stage.

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Phone 7 will fail

de-void-21165590650301806002836337787023 20th May 2010

@Market Analyst : You're looking at an early alpha. Having used some of the more recent builds, I can state with confidence that the next release will be a massive improvement.

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So many factually incorrect things in your blog

NonZealot 19th May 2010

Lets face it, Windows Mobile is dead

A product that is selling 12-15 million units a year is dead? Wow. And even if it becomes true in the future, Windows Mobile will continue to live on in every single iPhone sold considering the iPhone is a crippled clone of Windows Mobile.

Each revision has meant upset, upheaval and having to spend more dough on applications because the old ones wouldn't run on the new platform.

I have absolutely no idea where that came from. Every single application written for WM5 (released in 2005) will work in WM6.5. I even believe that WM6.5 will happily run most earlier programs although I must admit, I'd have trouble finding any of those apps considering they would now be 7 years old. Please update your blog since what you wrote is simply not true.

Even iPhone OS 4, which we expect to make an appearance mid June, will still install on first-gen iPhones and iPod touch devices, albeit with some features not present (such as multitasking).

Huh, that is all possible with Windows Mobile devices only you won't find that certain features have been arbitrarily disabled so that users are forced to go out and buy new hardware. If MS can get multi-tasking working on hardware from the year 2000, Apple could have gotten multi-tasking working on hardware from the year 2007. They didn't want to. It would have hurt sales.

Regardless, I'm currently enjoying WM6.5 on my HTC Touch Diamond even though it originally came with WM6.1. Thanks for checking into that one, you do your readers a disservice by spreading falsehoods like that.

Since the rest of your blog relies on the above inaccuracies, your conclusion is absolutely meaningless.

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It wasn't so bad up until this year...

the.ksmm 20th May 2010

I have been a Windows Mobile user since 2000 (back when it was the Pocket PC platform). The system was intriguing to me because it was far ahead of its primary competitor, Palm OS, which enjoyed the popularity granted by first-mover status.

The platform evolved at a glacial pace, however, and by 2009, the OS didn't look significantly better than it did in 2000, nor was it any easier to use. The strides that had been made on the desktop OS which made it easier to use never made it into Windows Mobile. Bigger screens with increased resolution only showed how ugly the user interface (UI) really was in an era of animated, 3-D interface elements complete with drop shadows.

But the OS was still technically sound. It was pretty stable on most devices. It had multitasking before most people knew what that is. A few things needed "updating" (e.g. multiple Exchange servers, a better notification system) but mostly it was held back by a horrific user interface.

So instead of just updating the UI, Microsoft throws the baby out with the bathwater and scraps the whole operating system. Say what?!? The OS was fine. I wish they had taken some of HTC's ideas from the Sense UI and just run with that. After gradually eroding features from each release up until WM 6.5, they finally decided to dump the whole basin of bathwater, throwing the baby out with it.

I hope WP7 turns out to be great, but I feel like they're targeting a feature set like iPhone OS 2.0 when Apple is gearing up for 4.0, and Android is showing itself to be the most nimble competitor in the group. Even webOS won't be down long with the cash backing of HP behind it.

I never count Microsoft out, but I doubt this road will lead them back to mobile OS glory.

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Phone 7 will fail

de-void-21165590650301806002836337787023 20th May 2010

@the.ksmm - MS haven't thrown the entire OS out - only the outdated UI & app model. WinPhone7 is still built on top of the WinCE 7.0 kernel.

What MS have understood is that Win32 is NOT a good platform upon which to build a developer community for the future. C/C /Win32 & PlatformBuilder is just WAY too complex and takes WAY too much time for most developers to bother with. Not to mention how hard it is to QA and security-assess native apps.

WinPhone7's XNA & Silverlight app platform offers FAR more to developers than Win32 ever did. And this is only the start - if MS gets this right, they could be onto a real winner.

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But it will break all my apps!

the.ksmm 20th May 2010

@de-void Look, I have to admit that I'm looking forward to seeing what the actual product is capable of when it appears (hopefully) this year. I'm just disappointed that nearly ten years of Windows Mobile use and collecting applications has to go down the drain because the chain of backwards compatibility is broken.

And I'm speaking strictly as a *user* here. I haven't done any development on WinMo, so I can't speak to how difficult it was or will be. If XNA/Silverlight leads to better apps, then that's great, but I wonder if there will be some developers who will miss their C/Win32/.NET tools also.

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Phone 7 will fail

ryanstrassburg 20th May 2010

It appears Microsoft's guarantee is not to continue to support old concepts on new ones, it is bad business, causes bloatedness, which ultimately causes efficiency problems.

Nothing more than progress and Microsoft is leading the pack in this regard, continuing to support old concepts is simply bad business and causes other issues.

Personally I am looking to get a new phone soon and I may be looking at MS exclusively because I know it works with everything I use like MS Office (does android run OpenOffice or have online LIVE! document editing?), my hotmail/other email, certain other applications including Visual Studio for development and so on... I know it will work and that is what matters to me as a user. I care not for past applications and in fact I think of these applications are completely retarded to begin with -- Like with Apple I have to spend $5 for an App to get my favorite news channel info which is actually free otherwise? And now you can spend $30 to use your iPhone as-if it were a credit card (e.g. Visa) which is so much easier than pulling out the actual credit/debit card(?) -- spend $30 so you can spend money on something, that has to be the most iTarded thing I ever heard of.

Yeah, this will be fun to keep an eye on.

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RE: Microsoft needs to give smartphone users some guarantees or Windows Phone 7 will fail

JBDragon 23rd May 2010

While I DO have interest in a Windows Phone 7, being a long time PocketPC 5.0 user with my HP IPAQ which I really do like, It's time to upgrade my old Razor phone to something new! Everyone at work has a IPhone these days, and I'm leaning that way myself. I'm waiting for the NEW version and see what that one is really like. I don't want to wait around for Windows Phone 7 and what it MAY in the future be able to do. It's going to be late this year or next before it's finally released. I'm not waiting around that long. Now in a couple years after having the IPHONE I may just switch over. Time will tell.