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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Nokia/Microsoft partnership - Winners and losers

By | February 11, 2011, 4:31am PST

Summary: So, Nokia is to partner with Microsoft and replace Symbian with Windows Phone as its primary operating system.

So, Nokia is to partner with Microsoft and replace Symbian with Windows Phone as its primary operating system.

Note: Live blog coverage here.

So who are the winners and losers from this partnership.

Well, undoubtedly the biggest winner is Microsoft. Not only does this move mean that it will inevitably make significant gains in Windows Phone marketshare, it’s also managed to eliminate Nokia’s Symbian OS as a competitor. Also, it’s managed to win over an OEM and get them to effectively dump their own established ecosystem in favor of its embryonic ecosystem.

Microsoft also gets its hands on Nokia’s Ovi/NAVTEQ mapping assets. Given the number of times this was mentioned at today’s live event, I think that this is what Microsoft wanted more than anything. No word on how this will fit into the WP ecosystem - will the technology be licensed to other handset OEMs?

What about Nokia? Is it a winner or a loser? Well, the company is fighting for survival, and this deal no doubt guarantees its survival for now. But it’s hard to see how in the long term Nokia can do much to differentiate itself from other OEMs. Sure, Nokia makes some good, solid hardware, but it’s this good solid hardware (over-engineering some might say) that got the company into the mess it’s in. Today Nokia truly becomes just another Microsoft OEM. The company has managed to gain more freedoms than other WP OEMs (more on that in a moment), but another OEM it is nonetheless.

It’s definitely a bad day for Nokia employees. There were strong suggestions that this move would mean job losses at Nokia.

It’s also a bad day for Google. “Why Google?” you might ask. Because in choosing a new platform for its products, Nokia went with Microsoft’s WP platform rather than Google’s Android platform. Nokia’s reasoning behind going with WP over Android is that it felt that going with Android meant that it would “one of many” and that value was being moved from Nokia to Google.

It could also be a bad day for other Windows Phone OEMs. During today’s Financial and Strategy briefing, Nokia CEO Stephen Elop said that the company had a “unique relationship” with Microsoft, and that the deal was “not your mother’s OEM deal with Microsoft” and that the deal also allowed Nokia to differentiate itself from other OEMs. Elop said that no details of this deal would be released, but all this talk of a cozy relationship between Microsoft and Nokia must make other OEMs uncomfortable. Nokia has already talked a lot about creating differentiation within the WP ecosystem and come up with unique hardware and services that will only be seen on Nokia handsets. Elop even suggested that Nokia had the power to change the WP UI to suit its needs, something that no other OEM can do. 

No word on handsets, pricing, release dates and so on … so plenty of blanks to fill in.

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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RE: Nokia/Microsoft partnership - Winners and losers
FAULKNE 13th Oct
Good day to confirm this comment I would appreciate T h e b e s t o f Z D N e t d e l i v e r e d your website very nice to everyone Yes, Oracle is the only one with shared-disk architecture, but that is there advantage. It means you can add or remove nodes and the database lives on. In a shared nothing architecture, if you lose a node, you lose the system. I'm sure Oracle appreciates EMC highlighting their advantage.I also desire to signal in your RSS feeds. Thank you as soon as once again and maintain up the great operate Awesome post! Thank you very much || thanks for nice content this is really benefit to me.
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Winner: Current WP7 users
retnep 11th Feb 2011
As a current WP7 user, the only thing that's missing is the apps. With developers now having access to a huge distribution base (almost overnight..oh wait, actually overnight), developers have a huge incentive to focus their attention on making apps for WP7. Android app development really was not that strong until OEMs began using Android in mass. I expect to see rapid growth in the WP7 marketplace. Win for me.
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This move will make ~$700+ million for MS's E&D division selling around ~70 million phones. (10 dollar MS Tax).

This places Nokia at a disadvantage when it comes to smartphones. they will cost 10 or more dollars than the competition.

In the developed world this isn't much. But Nokia has very little presence there. Nokia is huge in the low end market, where people dont spend more than 50 dollars on a phone a 10 dollar tax will mean that competition will offer phones with 10 dollars worth of more features.

Nokia stands to keep on squandering market share. The next course correction will be in about a year, if Win 8 doesn't come through.

Sales will keep on dropping through 2012.
@Uralbas
Have to disagree with your assessment. Nokia has massive distribution agreements with carriers in Europe that ensure sales. Symbian is one of the worst operating system for a smartphone, yet it still leads or nearly leads in sales. This is because individual carriers are likely to carry multiple types of Nokia phones all running Symbian with only a couple of offerings from Android and RIM.

I'm not sure about your comment about Win 8. WP7 is probably the best, most responsive, UI that I've used on a smartphone. There are some flaws, but the flaws are minor and correctable.
@Uralbas
The Low end Nokia phones that you are talking about has nothing to do with this deal. They run S40, and will continue to do so. Nokia is not going to be WP7 only company, never. It's market is so big that it can be selling S40, Symbian, Meego, WP7, all types of phones together.
@Uralbas : I think Nokia's is world famous for ill-fated, game changing agreements. Remember the Symbian Foundation, which now is almost extinct. Remember Maemo, which never got anywhere. Remember MeeGo, the useless combination between Moblin and Maemo, which wreck havoc on the Intel side, just to support the ill fated purchase of Qt and created a platform nobody cared to develop (Qt Quick). Now they speak about Windows Phone 7. Do they have the "anti Midas" touch.
We'll see.
@retnep - No, Microsoft has exactly a 0% larger "distribution base" (i.e. market share) today compared to yesterday. Nokia is planning it's first WP7 phone for the end of the year and only then will Nokia start to add to the WP7 share. Meanwhile all the other WP7 partners, much as they try and put a good spin on it, have another reason besides poor sales to ignore their WP7 efforts. And all those partners have a great other OS to fall back on (unlike Nokia) in Android.

This move stagnates WP7 for 2011 and goes all-in on the hopes that Nokia can do something magical.
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@retnep

Agreed. Good for all consumers. Don't know why the fan bois are afraid of competition. Shrug...
@retnep : well... not really... Nokia's gonna take minimum 2 months to release an ODM badge-engineered phone. Even longer for a true Nokia phone. Then it's gonna take a while for resellers to understand the new phones, integrate them into their pipelines and leverage the system.

Also, Nokia's a no player on real smartphones, so my best bet would be that in order to avoid a direct competition with the other WP7 OEMs, they will target feature phones at least until they see WP7 mature enough to compete in high end (iPhone 4) and mid tier (Droid 2, Pre3, iPhone 3GS, etc).
@retnep
I am not convinced by this argument, but it is certainly an unusual way to view the situation:
http://www.macworld.com.au/news/analysis-nokia-microsoft-deal-is-a-win-for-apple-24333/
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loser nokia
Quebec-french 11th Feb 2011
never make a deal with MS what ever the situation look what happen to novell
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Well, let's be honest
wolf_z 11th Feb 2011
@Quebec-french

Novell had very little to offer. It was all about the Linux deal anyway, so Novell got some much needed cash--and little else except MS support and freedom from potential litigation.

But Suse Linux was just another linux, really...and it could be had for free. Not much profit in free, even charging for support. Just ask Red Hat.

Novell's always been a bit of a bit player anyway--yet another one trick pony.
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Not much profit?
Zc456 Updated - 11th Feb 2011
@wolf_z
Maybe for Novell but Red Hat made 748.23 million in revenue as of last year.
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@wolf_z - Revenue means nothing. Measure a company's performance on it's profits - it's ability to make money.

For FY2010, RedHat MADE $87.3M in profit. That's it. That's barely enough to pay for a few conferences and fund R&D to continue to differentiate its products from mainstream Linux.

To put this in perspective, Microsoft generates $87M in profit every 21 hours.
@bitcrazed
You're clearly trying to say "Microsoft is so much better than Redhat".

Well as an investment, Microsoft would be about 8 times better in terms of Price/Earnings, as RHT (redhat) Price/Earnings ratio is 89, Microsoft is 12.
Note: Microsoft was formed in 1975, Redhat in 1993, making Microsoft twice the age of redhat.

During Microsoft's phase of expansion however, they didn't dividend anything, meaning PE ratio was effectively infinite: at the end of 2001, Microsoft's PE ratio was 60.

Many people (especially Microsoft) predicted that there was no way to make money out of Free Software, and that redhat and other corporations based on free software would bomb. However they haven't, and in fact, have been burning up the non-free software market. (in the same way that computers burnt up the typewriter market, and the typist market).

Redhat's Market Cap has increased by a factor of 8 since end of 2001, while Microsoft's has halved.
It's interesting to note that if the trend continues over the next 10 years, then by 2021, Redhat will be nearly comparable in Market cap to Microsoft.
at that stage, Redhat will be 28 years old, or effectively at the age that Microsoft was when it released Windows XP.

The fact you have nearly a billion dollar corporation selling free software, and it's 18 years old, it quite a thing. So many people said it couldn't be done.
@Quebec-french

Novell waited until they were dead. Nokia is acting far more proactively.
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RE: Nokia/Microsoft partnership - Winners and losers
Alan Smithie Updated - 11th Feb 2011
As you say Adrian, a significant issue is this may horribly backfire on MS with it's existing partners for WP7 and it's going to have to do a lot of stroking to keep them happy, this would have made a lot more sense if it had been an exclusive deal. Android has already commoditized the smart-phone market as MS did when it outmanoeuvred IBM for PC's so it's still going to be tough going for WP7.

A point to note here is that this is just the deal stage and no phones have actually been designed yet so there is going to be a significant time lag before anything comes to market, in the meantime things will have moved again.
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But can they execute it...
empirestatebuddy Updated - 11th Feb 2011
I have WP7 & love it... so I'm excited about this deal. It definitely looks good on paper... but can they execute it properly? I guess we'll see. If Nokia can get some quality WP7's to market in the first half of this year, then that would be a good thing. If we don't see them until 2012, then that seems like a problem (in my non-expert opinion). The mobile world is moving rapidly. Microsoft & Nokia need to move... now.
@empirestatebuddy - Nokia said first handset at the end of this year - that's a long way off.
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Winner: European Carriers
retnep 11th Feb 2011
European carriers who have hitched their wagons with Nokia as their primary phone distributor have to be jumping for joy today. When the NWP7 roles out, many of these partners will have absolutely 'new' products to sell. I have to imagine that these carriers saw how Symbian was lagging in features and begged Nokia to change. As a customer, your options are to either buy the device your carrier offers or switch carriers. If all of your carrier's phones are inferior to the competition, it's a lot more likely for you to switch.

Nokia's market share reduction is as much about carriers reaching out to other manufacturers for phones as is for customers picking different phones. With a new product to push, these carriers can continue their existing partnerships with Nokia and still be able satisfy their customers with a brand new experience.
market. Nokia with WP7 will not necessarily be well received by Europeans, and this might be a big opening for Apple and Android OEMs.
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@DonnieBoy

Ummm, no.
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RE: Nokia/Microsoft partnership - Winners and losers
idiot101 Updated - 11th Feb 2011
Nokia is going to make a killing in India where the handset manufacturer is synonymous with good quality and excellent service. The new emerging middle class that is closely integrated around businesses that run Microsoft products will surely go in for Windows Phone 7 products knowing that there would be a seamless integration of services. And as for Nokia, they would be the first to make inroads into a very nascent smart phone business that has still not seen the light of day.

I would say win-win for them both when it comes to the sub-continent.
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@rohitgovindraj

Erm don't you mean cheap Chinese Iphone knock-offs ?
gain anything than they lost. Google today gets rid of one competitor, replaced by WP7. Google COULD gain more share against Nokia/WP7 than against Nokia/Symbian, or what might have been Nokia/Meego.
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Happy, happy, joy, joy
mmerchan Updated - 11th Feb 2011
As a US owner of a household of Nokia phones, and two xbox slims, and a xboxlive family pack I am ecstatic. I had apprehensions about Meego, but my loyalty to the Nokia hardware was being tested on the rollout wait times. I have held my nose over the last 6 months and bought a 5800, and x6 for my family, with the understanding that Symbian would be adjusted somewhat. But, the thought of upgrading my personal N95 to an N8 style Symbian was a little much for the unlocked price tag.

But all is right as rain now! A PC-TV-Handset hookup! with Nokia hardware nohow!

Lets call it what it is: Nokia was never that great at software anyway. But, they are a rock at hardware, functionality, look, and feel. I have always had linking issues with the phones to more main stream business and family apps, but put up with a lot. More than I should have to put it plainly.

So what do I want from this point:

An E7 style Nseries - with32gb, and keep the 2mm charger. Is that a lot to ask for? Nokia should have that laying around somewhere in the pipe.

Oh an let silver lite use the QT sdk. Put those other eco systems at risk while i'm dancin in the street.
@mmerchan

Sorry Merchan, but this is a coalition of two losers, two companies in decline. MS is in decline, no fresh ideas came from Redmont for a long, long time and talent is fleeing. The fiasco with Bing is just another indication how low they will go... Nokia chose WP7 because, like MS, they are also on a downward slope and the alternative would be to compete with a myriad of other Android based phones... They hope differentiation will save them.
@prof123 This is not something new and unexpected. Microsoft planted Elop in Nokia, for this very purpose. Call it a backup plan. When Windows phone 7 series phones did not sell as well as expected, Microsoft jumped to plan B. Call up their planted CEO, and make the announcement. Nothing impressive about it at all.
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@prof123
"no fresh ideas came from Redmont for a long, long time"

Have you even seen WP7? Your favorite innovative company Google couldnt think of anything better than copying iOS interface for Android. WP7 is especially different!

@ Rick_K

"Microsoft planted Elop in Nokia"

Talk about conspiracy theories man...good for Elop, he is drawing salaries from both Microsoft and Nokia right??
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Winners are obvious, Microsoft, Nokia, and consumers. The losers are Google and android. Nokia was right to use Windows Phone 7 as their primary OS on their phones. With android as fragmented as it is and users not able to update their phones it would have been a very poor choice. People are familiar with the Microsoft brand name and with all the glowing reviews will gravitate towards WP7.
@Loverock Davidson
Troll and idiot. I'd flag, but it's already been flagged!
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@Loverock Davidson

You are right. Simple as that.
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What's in the deal??
Moe2511 11th Feb 2011
There has to be something for both,
as they said, it's not the usual OEM-contract.
We know that Microsoft needs Nokia as much if not more than Nokia needs Microsoft.

What if Nokia gets ownership percentage of Microsoft services on Nokia WP7 phones;
for example, money from ad-search (Bing), Zune subscriptions and sales, Marketplace sales etc.

That would explain Nokia's all in gambling with WP7 and why they are giving away maps, ovi services and helping Microsoft with R&D and global distribution.

The contract between the two are surly more complex than what meets the eye.
@Moe2511 The master plan is for Microsoft to gain access to all of Nokia?s IP. After they get all of the IP, expect them to cancel the deal. Nokia will then sue Microsoft, but Microsoft will keep delaying the trial as long as possible to finish off Nokia. In the end you?ll see it play out like many other deals that involve Microsoft. The partner help Microsoft get what it wants and gets stabbed in the back. Some people will just never learn. I do expect Elop to get offered a job after Nokia goes belly up. That way he can move onto the next company Microsoft has in it?s crosshairs.
The big looser here is Intel. They bet on Nokia and Meego.
It?s only a bad day for Nokia employees if you?re looking at the short term. But this will likely turn out to be a very good day for Nokia employees in the long run.
@Mythos7 How is losing your job a good thing? Nokia already announced that they would be laying off many Nokia employees. If they are pinning their hopes on Microsoft?s software, expect the majority of the software people at Nokia to be the ones cut. Nokia should start with Elop, they would save more money cutting off that large salary, and he could just return to Microsoft and wait for his next assignment.
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Nokia is down 13 % this morning on the news of this collaboration with Microsoft.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:NOK
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Sounds like sour grapes...
NoAxToGrind 11th Feb 2011
They didn't pick Android, Waaaaaaaa.....
@NoAxToGrind
Everyone knows the bloated corpse of Nokia is now headed towards the waterfall.
1000 Nokia workers walked out in protest of the collaboration agreement with Microsoft.

http://www.techradar.com/news/phone-and-communications/mobile-phones/1-000-workers-walk-out-on-nokia-after-microsoft-announcement-928142

Wall street sees Nokia as the loser also- Nokia down 14% on this announcement this morning.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:NOK
@dfolk2

"While the majority of the workers are said to have used the company's flexi-time system to stage the walkout, it does point to unrest at the news that Nokia is embracing Windows Phone 7."

Sounds like they went outside on a break, protested, then went back to work. It's not like they walked out and quit. Probably mostly Symbian programmers seeing the writing on the wall.
@Badgered Flextime is a system where you start between certain hours and work till a point between certain hours. The big tell is how many will call in sick the following day. Many will probably be looking for other jobs, as they know that the layoffs are coming. Didn?t Microsoft says something like 2,500 jobs would be lost in Finland?
@Badgered
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Tervetuloa USA Nokia
nikomanek 11th Feb 2011
(Welcome to the USA Nokia) is one of the first things coming to my mind when I read this announcement. Nokia was the underdog in the USA and people really did never get really excited about Symbian. Now with WP7 this might change dramatically over time. WP7 has by far superior tooling for development than all of it's competition and this pretty bold move will help Nokia to grow it's share in the US as it will help them to regain acceptance in Europe. We develop for Android and iOS and started some prototyping on WP7. With this annoucement we will push WP7 a little more as I believe there will be some significant growth over time. For Microsoft it once again shows that they are great dealmakers when it comes to OEM business. Nokia is no small fish. At the end customers will be the big winners. More apps on WP7 are a certain outcome. Congratulation! That's all great news!
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I would guess this has to do with weak sales.
TripleII-21189418044173169409978279405827 11th Feb 2011
We still have no real solid data on how well WP7 phones are selling out there. Other stories have indicated that WP7 was basically shoehorned into mediocre hardware from other manufacturers and MS sees that it needed a truly serious player to adopt WP7. For Nokia, I suspect a very rosy 1Q11 since I have little doubt MS paid them a tidy sum of money to go this route.

You nailed the biggest problem though. Will the other OEMs dump or place even less resources into WP7 in the meantime? Anyway, we will see how it shakes out. For MS is surely is a short term win, for Nokia it is really the success/fail of their company (they had to so something) and they have pinned their future on WP7. History will tell the tale.

TripleII
@TripleII
That's faster than any other product has ever entered the smartphone market, including iphone.
Nokia has not exactly been performing, WinMo7 really hasn't been performing. Joining loser product with loser phones is unlikely to produce a winning situation, especially when there is a wolf product in the market like android.
I don't get the NavTeq angle ?

Microsoft has all but ignored Autoroute for years, and also has the mapping expertese in house with MultiMap (now Bing maps). also until they pissed off Tomtom, that was Windows Mobile exclusive for years, apart from Standalone Units.

Winner - Microsoft
Loser - Nokia

Vengeful Losers - HTC, Samsung, Motorola.
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RE: Nokia/Microsoft partnership - Winners and losers
alsobannedfromzdnet 11th Feb 2011
Escaping a burning oil rig on the Hindenburg.
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I'm so glad Windows Mobile 6.1 and earlier does not have a so-called "app store" as I like to find some applications online.

Sorry Nokia, I bet you're a loser. Heh heh!

Windows Phone 7 has a very long way to go to compete with Android, because right now, it is competing with iPhone.

Let me sum this up (well, just is my opinion, but surely...):

Windows Mobile 6.5 (and earlier version) is to Android as...
Windows Phone 7 is to iPhone.

Thus:

Windows Mobile 6.5 (and earlier version) is not to Windows Phone 7, as...
Android is not to iPhone.

And how about this?

Symbian is to Windows Mobile is to Android
Windows Phone 7 is to iPhone

Now, do you see the point, Nokia?
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@Grayson Peddie
Actually, WP7 could bypass both iPhone and Android if Microsoft invested the momentum behind it. Remember that WP7 was rushed out the door with a VERY short development cycle compared to Apple and Google/Open Handset Alliance.

If Microsoft focussed their energy behind it in a big way, they could be at or well beyond iPhone and Android's capabilities within just a couple iterations of release. They are really not that far behind them now from that aspect.

They do lack the market share. And unless Microsoft takes the same approach on it they did with the XBox/XBox 360, it's a chicken and the egg thing: They need marketshare to justify investing more into it, and in order to get marketshare, they need an experience that's competitive to iOS/Android
Good day to confirm this comment I would appreciate T h e b e s t o f Z D N e t d e l i v e r e d your website very nice to everyone Yes, Oracle is the only one with shared-disk architecture, but that is there advantage. It means you can add or remove nodes and the database lives on. In a shared nothing architecture, if you lose a node, you lose the system. I'm sure Oracle appreciates EMC highlighting their advantage.I also desire to signal in your RSS feeds. Thank you as soon as once again and maintain up the great operate Awesome post! Thank you very much || thanks for nice content this is really benefit to me.

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