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Hardware 2.0

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

The biggest loser from the success of Windows 8 will be ...

By | February 8, 2012, 10:25am PST

Summary: It’s not what you think it might be.

If Windows 8 tanks, then Microsoft and the PC industry will have to absorb the blow. But if Windows 8 is a success, then the losers from this success might surprise you.

The PC industry is in trouble, possibly heading for a collapse. Units shipped seem to have flatlines and the PC is under considerable pressure from the iPad and Android tablets. Failure on the part of Windows 8 could push PCs over the precipice and possibly change he PC landscape forever.

But what if Windows 8 is a success? That’s when things get interesting!

Who, or what, would be the biggest loser if Windows 8 was a success?

I’ll tell you now, it’s not what you think!

  • It’s not Apple. Apple and Microsoft aren’t really competing against one another any more. Yes, they sell similar products, but not to the same customer base.
  • It’s not Linux. That operating system isn’t a threat to Microsoft any more in any way, shape or form.
  • It’s not Android. Android will continue to grow no matter what happens with Windows 8.

So what it is?

It’s the x86 architecture.

Why?

Because Microsoft is finally getting serious about the ARM architecture, and while it’s currently under the guise of getting Windows tablets to market, there’s no doubt that we’re going to see ARM-powered PCs before long.

And there begins the slippery slope for the x86. The architecture that has been dominant now for three decades is showing its age. ARM on the other hand is lighter, more versatile and offers significant advantages over the older platform. We’re looking at smaller, quieter, more power-efficient systems. We’re looking at the demise of the big-box PC, and the introduction of smaller, more personal devices.

The more people are exposed to ARM, the more they will appreciate the advantages, and this means that the new platform will gain a foothold. This isn’t going to happen during the tenure of Windows 8, but it will. The fact that Microsoft is offering an ARM version of Windows will give the platform a much-needed boost. Thanks to improved performance, it’s likely that ARM CPUs will quickly get to the point where they’re powerful enough to handle day-to-day computing, and eventually even high-end applications such as gaming and encoding multimedia.

The ARM version of Windows will also grow to accommodate the changing landscape. Right now it seems that ARM versions of Windows are primarily aimed at tablets, but as the platform evolves, so will Windows.

A few more iterations of Windows, the ARM version of Windows will be the default, and x86 will be on the way out

Windows 8 is just the beginning. And it will be the death of x86.

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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RE: The biggest loser from the success of Windows 8 will be ...
lou@... 12th Feb
@Loverock Davidson-
- you start with a wrong premise "the success of Microsoft Windows 8 that means every user will be using it instead of linux".
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And that is that as ARM and x86 grow closer together in processing power, ARM will retain advantages over x86 and x86 will not retain advantages over ARM.

I am not sure that is true.
@jdakula No neither am I, this seems to assume Intel will stand still waiting for their product to become obsolete. That doesn't sound much like the Intel I know.

It also supposes that Windows 8 for ARM is going to succeed. Again without support for legacy applications this seems quite an assumption. I think it's VERY possible that Windows 8 will only interest consumers on x86, and not ARM. This could easily be true if consumers don't care much for Metro, or if the x86 building OEMs can produce compelling systems.

It is very possible for Windows 8 to be a (relative) success and still tank on mobile.
@jdakula

Didn't I read somewhere a few weeks ago during the CES that Intel was to release later this year a new line of CPUs almost as power efficient as ARM processors?

Anyway, I'm looking forward for x86 Windows 8 Tablet/Laptop combo machines. I want tablet features but also standard desktop and legacy applications most importantly! I don't want to start finding ARM versions or new applications to replace what I'm used to use for years.

x86 for me (or x64 I should say)
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Talk is cheap
Richard Flude 8th Feb
Intel said many things about Atom. That platform fell well short.

Not that Intel can't do it, but like MS it is easy to put out a press release;-)
@jdakula

I'm sorry, the biggest loser will be SJVN wink
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Nothing to worry about.....
linux for me 9th Feb
@jdakula

Since Win8, at least on the desktop, will not be be successful, DOA, there will not be any major changes in the x86 architecture. Add to the fact that there are literally millions of these processors in use, I don't believe that software developers are going to leave that massive marketing share any time soon.
I'm not sure the desktop is as dead as people say. Personally I'm waiting for Windows 8 to come out, and I will buy it on a new desktop computer, and there are probably a whole lot of people thinking the same way.
I'm sorry but If I need to do something serious it's not going to be on a tablet or a laptop but sitting at a desk using a desktop machine.
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Boilerplate from space
Robert Hahn 8th Feb
Do you read the articles before posting? You sure didn't read this one.
Of course it is, and Android is Linux.
It???s not Linux. That operating system isn???t a threat to Microsoft any more in any way, shape or form.
It???s not Android. Android will continue to grow no matter what happens with Windows 8.

Wrong and Wrong. Its both of these. With the success of Microsoft Windows 8 that means every user will be using it instead of linux. Same goes for android, as long as they have Windows 8 on their device they will not be running android. Those two are the real losers when Windows 8 becomes the success.
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Mindless Automaton speak
use_what_works_4_U 8th Feb
@Loverock Davidson-
Because of course everyone will want the exact same feature set brought to them in the exact same way and *no one* will want to have "choice"!
@macadam
They have choice. They are choosing to go with Microsoft Windows 8 instead of linux or any linux based OS.
  • Flagged
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Why reply?
ego.sum.stig@... 8th Feb
You know he probably has Microsoft boxer shorts, a Microsoft beanie, and gosh darn it, if there were such as thing as Microsoft breakfast cereal he'd inhale that every morning too.
@Loverock Davidson
You said "With the success of Microsoft Windows 8 that means every user will be using it instead of linux"

Exactly what type of choice is that? I do not for a moment believe that every computer user will want the same experience. I am a smaple group of one and even in that sample you will find Windows 7, OS X, Android and iOS in use for different tasks, each where they are most appropriate.
@Loverock Davidson-
Yes, yes, Windows 8 will have large uptake and everyone, nearly, worldwide will be using it. How does that differ from today? For something to be a threat there has to be a potential negative consequence.

Everyone, and maybe we're no better than a niche, who prefers a non-Windows desktop will find Metro, at best, interesting, but in no way compelling enough to change our workflows and replace our applications at cost of money and time.

Linux and OS X are not a threat to Windows 8 and Windows 8 is not a threat to OS X and Linux.
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I think you actually made a funny
John L. Ries 9th Feb
@Loverock Davidson-
7
@Loverock Davidson-
- you start with a wrong premise "the success of Microsoft Windows 8 that means every user will be using it instead of linux".
I believe it will take sales from the iPad. Why buy two devices tablet/laptop when one will do both tasks.
@jatbains ... So there is already one device that does everything a consumer needs the iPad. Or to be more fair Tablets in general. For perhaps a decade now people have been purchasing desktops not so much because they required the power of a desktop but because it was the only option to do the select few things they needed/wanted to do. Now with the iPad/tablets they have a system that does what they need/want and is portable. BRILLIANT!

Pagan jim
@James Quinn Yeah, but you will run into that situation when you need to import pictures and edit them, rip a CD etc.
A tablet with a docking station (Transformer Prime) will satisfy these needs.
@Jatbains

When it comes to importing digital images on an iPad and consequently performing any photo editing on them, there are several high quality apps available that are tuned to multi-touch inputs. (Snapseed and PS Express are examples) Exporting those images wireless to the cloud or an external HD drive (Seagate GoFlex Satellite for instance) is already easy to do.

Granted, the current iOS apps are not quite up to the desktop PS standards yet, but the rumored A6 ARM SoC will have sufficient power and GPU ability to "just about match" photo editing apps of available a few years ago. Not bad for a third generation tablet product.

As for ripping CDs. Well, you have a point there. However, I'm afraid that the CD technology will never be a part of the tablet ecosystem - at least Apple's tablet ecosystem. The iPad does support SD storage media and personally, I prefer SDs to CDs or DVDs anyway.
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"The iPad does support SD storage media and personally, I prefer SDs to CDs or DVDs anyway."

Are you sure about that? I was led to believe that iPad could only read pictures from SD cards. Or are you talking about jailbroken iPads?
This is very funny. It looks like you really think Intel and AMD are standing still.
Desktop applications won't dissapear anytime soon because there are architects using CADs, software developers using IDEs, database engines and so on. These markets will always need high power computers. And even though affordable computers can now fulfill most consumers needs, it will never be enough (not in the short term) to stop demanding users from wanting more horsepower.

The x64 architecture will live for several more years. And ARM won't make a dent in this market in the foreseeable future. It will only affect the low power devices market.
@TheCyberKnight
The market is diverging into two realms: Low Power and Big Metal. The x86 will live on for quite some time as Big Metal. Some of us will continue to buy x86 because we need Big Metal platforms. But for most consumers, it'll be Low Power devices such as cell phones, tablets, and for the few die-hards like myself, SmartBooks.
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Blah. Development of x64 drives convergence between end-user and server architectures, that in turn lays foundation in the general shift from local processing to web/cloud based computing. Actually without this synergy services like social networks, google or amazon would not exist. Because the single big stream of development money fuels both workstation and server solutions, x64 overpassed Big Iron RISC and brought infrastructure cost 10x down. Now imagine dropping it - we'd be back in situation like 5 or more years ago - two separate worlds of consumer and enterpise technologies. Economically impossible.
Well, it all depends on support for legacy x86-compiled applications. If these may be run with great compatibility and speed, sure, ARM pcs will displace x86, as long as Intel and AMD don't respond with aggressive pricing.

But full compatibility at full speed seems unlikely on its face, and many applications will not be in a position where resources may be applied to updating and compiling. Windows 8 is following a good release, expect 15-30% penetration among the install base 12 months after its release, which means major developers may hold off until 50% is achieved or will add the compatibility into paid upgrades, and their customers may keep buying x86 to save money on software.

So, why the heck is everyone writing obituaries or doing victory wheelies for an unreleased product?
... fifteen or so years ago.

What happened? The x86 architecture evolved so that while it still exposed x86 instructions on the outside, internally it began to use many RISC ideas. And, RISC pretty well went away.

Right now, Intel and AMD are working really, really hard at reducing the power dissipation in their chips, and also at introducing System on a Chip (SoC) implementations for 2013. They are not going to lie down while ARM eats their lunch.
@easson
ARM is a RISC based architecture, so, basically, people are once again saying that RISC will kill x86. If ARM actually were to take over, all those old prognosticators would turn out to be right after all. happy
the world with arm powered devices. Intel will have processors that are better suited than arm for small, quiet, and power efficient devices. They will match arm there but crush it on perf. The beginnings of this are already visible and we'll see the first intel tablets and smartphones this year.
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LATE this year:)
James Quinn 8th Feb
@Johnny Vegas

Pagan jim
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Linux should run some ads
Robert Hahn 8th Feb
@Johnny Vegas
I see we are going to have to endure the same hoo-hah about ARM that we do about Android: treating it as if it were a company instead of an army of companies. How many firms are out there making ARM-based processors? Five? Ten? A hundred?

I have nothing but respect for Intel, but they're not the only collection of engineers and fab mavens out there. You make their triumph sound easy. It won't be.
and ARM does not manufacture the chips. So MS has a job to convince a chip manufacturer to make it's version of ARM, then convince the PC, tablet, etc., manufacturers to build with it.
Interesting.
ARM is only winning because of battery usage... If AMD or Intel deliver on their mobile strategy, ARM could go by the wayside.
What does ARM architecture have to do with writing an Operating system that can handle traditional keyboard/mouse data entry? All the blather so far about ARM has been about "touchy-feely" data entry devices. Maybe Windows-9 will be oriented to keyboards/mice laptops and desktops, using ARM architecture.
I really don't think you "get it." You don't sit down and do your work on an iPad. You work on either a Mac or a PC, but you still work on a computer to get your job done. I think iPad will begin to feel some pain because it really is a toy device. I love my iPad, don't get me wrong, but I can't use it for actually getting work done. Maybe some people can, but most plug it into the device (or share files via Dropbox) to the device that they are really using.

Since Apple is 52% iPhone, 13% iPad and 12% Mac, I think Apple will have to adjust its model in order to compete. Since Windows 8 slates will be more equivalent to having both an iPad and a Mac, it's hard to have a reason for $1500 minimum in both of those, when you might get a Windows Slate/PC for $700 that you can actually use for your job.

I love Apple, but I'm excited to see the competition really begin.
Microsoft itself! We already have the best operating system in the world------Windows XP and Microsoft cleverly put a virtual Windows XP in its issues of Windows 7 Professional and Ultimate. Are they going to do the same for Windows 8. I'll bet not. This means that many people won't upgrade current computers or buy new ones with Windows 8 if it isn't backward compatible with software or hardware. There are people still running Windows 98. We have an old Windows 95 computer we hardly use now except to copy floppy drives to CD-ROMs but it still works fine, albeit a little slow.

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