ie8 fix
madison

Hardware 2.0

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales

By | November 4, 2010, 3:32am PDT

Summary: Microsoft now admits that Apple’s iPad is cannibalizing netbook sales.

Microsoft now admits that Apple’s iPad is cannibalizing netbook sales.

Speaking to The Seattle PI, Gavriella Schuster, general manager for Windows product management had this to say:

But the success of the Apple iPad, and the impending Google Android (and Chrome OS?) tablets, are beginning to threaten Windows’ hold on the “and” PC market. Real Windows-based iPad competitors aren’t expected until sometime next year. So I pointed to Schuster’s netbook and asked about the recent trend.

“These are definitely getting cannibalized,” she said. “These are really a second device. But they are getting cannibalized.”

Schuster calls netbooks, tablets and smartphones “and” devices, which rather than replacing desktop systems, augment them. And it seems that when it comes to deciding between a netbook and a tablet, it’s a case of which one to get, rather than getting both.

People only have two hands and a certain amount of cash to spend. Something, somewhere has to give.

Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily e-mail newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.

Topics

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

Related Discussions on TechRepublic

Did you know you can take part in these discussions with your ZDNet membership?
75
Comments

Join the conversation!

Just In

RE: The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales
tjackson78 30th Nov 2010
I am a business owner and IT professional. I also thought the iPad was just a "toy" or big iPhone, however I've had one for about a month and have ditched my net book. I thought I would miss flash, I don't because I use Wyse Pocketcloud connect to access my PC and I get my full windows desktop on my iPad and it runs faster that it did on my net book...Go figure.
0 Votes
+ -
Ir should because the two form factors share a lot of intended usage features.
0 Votes
+ -
Well
timiteh 4th Nov 2010
Assuming how cheap netbooks are, and their intended use, it is a bit difficult to understand how exactly iPad can significantly disturb their sales.
Unless of course they are overpowered for a significant amount of customers.
0 Votes
+ -
@timiteh It would be the "dumb" factor. You know those that see all the cool people with iPads not realizing how utterly useless an iPad actually is. So they ditch purchasing something that works for the latest fad.
0 Votes
+ -
I thought the same until I used one
Kabcock Updated - 4th Nov 2010
@blueskip

I hear this a lot, mostly from people who picked one up at the store for 5 minutes and declare it a toy. I use to think the same until I started to use it and now can completely understand why this thing will kill the low end Windows market. Instant start up, easy to use, stable, very expandable (software/OS), enjoyable, innovative. Windows has been trying to crack the pad market and failing for the last 10 years. Apple tries and hits a home run, there is a reason why. Use one and you may understand.
0 Votes
+ -
@Kabcock : When you sell 40+ million netbooks a year "trying to crack the pad market and failing" is a definitely incorrect statement. Yes 40+ million this year [see trying to crack the pad market and failing ]. So lket's see, aside from the simple games from the app store, what *REAL* games can you play on it? Will Office 2011 for the Mac work on an iPad? Office 2010 works nicely on my netbook.
0 Votes
+ -
@blueskip Exactly. I always thought this way about it, and after using one I realized that I was not wrong. Typing on the device is nothing nothing better than terrible. Movies and other videos looked pretty good (except that there is no YouTube HD, atleast when I used it so YouTube is grainy. Comics and stuff are pretty awesome overall, but it would be the same on any tablet. Games on the otherhand are iffy at best. Some games looked clean, but any sports I'd racing or really anything with real live action looks pretty terrible, its like a throwback into the mid to late 90s. And while this isn't the iPads fault persay, it is the fault of the hardware not being able to render better graphics for that resolution. Honestly the experience isn't worth near $500. And I suspect many others feel the same. A netbook ok the other hands is a machine that can actually get stuff done. And while it might not be as cool or comfortable for reading comics, magazines, and books, they run real OS's and real full programs. Honestly I would pay about $300 tops for a tablet. As it would be a 3rd device to me and I would only really use it for media consumption.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales
dave@... Updated - 7th Nov 2010
@blueskip The reason Microsoft failed at the tablet market is the same reason Microsoft failed at the "tiny PC" market... their solutions were always super expensive full PCs shunk down. So you paid more... much more, for a lower perfomance PC with an alternate form factor.

I had one of those, some years back. I needed a small laptop with very long battery life (commuting fairly regularly between New Jersey and Germany). I got myself a Fujitsu P2000... kind of the grandaddy of the Netbook. These ran close to $2,000 back then... you could get a regular notebook for much, much less.

Same with tablets... these came out as very expensive notebooks, smaller and lower power. And without a useful touch interface... you still needed a stylus.

It wasn't Microsoft who enabled the Netbook. It was almost Palm.. the Palm Folio was damn near what we think of as a Netbook, though it was stillborn. And then it was Asustek who actually brought the modern Netbook to life.

See, there was this project at MIT, called OLPC -- One Laptop Per Child. It set the noble goal of delivering $100 laptops to kids in the third world. The company brought in to manufacture these was Quanta... also a Taiwanese company, and the arch rival of Asustek. So Asustek, fearing Quanta would apply what they learned to the mass market laptop, set out to deliver an ultra-cheap laptop... what we know today as the Netbook.

Really... Microsoft has a horrible track record of moving hardware innovations. Usually it's Intel... they're done pretty well. And in fact, Microsoft fought against the idea of the Netbook, until they realized that if they didn't support it, they would all run Linux (which is what the OLPC ran).
0 Votes
+ -
@Gis Bun What in the world are you talking about. Selling millions of netbooks has absolutely nothing to do with their success or lack there of in the pad (tablet) market, two different devices. Windows and their partners have been in the tablet market for 8-10 years not and I don't have hard figures but would hazard a guess that in the time they have not sold as many as the iPad has in what 6-7 months.
0 Votes
+ -
@timiteh

There's an indirect way to see the future of the iPad. Any new tech seems to turn up in TV shows almost immediately CSI, NCIS, Criminal Minds etc, etc. However, while all the TV shows are adopting tablets, the iPad is not to be seen. Apparently even TV writers recognise a toy when they see it. I presume we'll see some Kinect use in teh next few months wink

Do what I did, get one for a week. Believe me, you won't want to keep it.
0 Votes
+ -
@tonymcs@...You're entitled to your own opinion, but you're not entitled to your own facts. The fact is that the iPad has a 95% customers satisfaction rating. People who try the iPad like it, your opinion notwithstanding. http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/02/ipad-satisfaction-hits-95-in-october-changewave-survey-up-4-pts-from-may/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fortuneapple20+%28FORTUNE%3A+Apple+2.0%29
0 Votes
+ -
@tonymcs@... actually I saw a iPad in a few shows now. Most of the time they are using tablets, they are just showing pictures. But when they use interactive tablets, I notice that they sent iPads.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales
dave@... Updated - 7th Nov 2010
@timiteh It's a combination of things. Netbooks start pretty cheap, but there are more expensive models as well. And there's a buzz about the iPad.

There's some sense of this. Sure, the full iPad is expensive, and even the entry level one is a stones throw away from the cost of discount full Windows laptops (average US laptop cost about $550 in 2009, entery level iPad is $499). But for apps, Netbooks are often useless running many or significant Windows apps. The iPad, on the other hand, is THE high-end iOS device. And many of the key apps... web browsing, media playing, work as well on either platform.

And there's something to be said for Apple's reputation. Techies more often know the truth, so this may not be so obvious to readers here, but there's a certain cachet surrounding the Apple name. They've made it a high-end brand, which is why you spend 2x-3x as much for an Apple PC as for any old generic PC.... even given that the "guts" today are the same. So there are a class of people who couldn't justify the price of a Mac PC, or the monthlies for an iPhone, but think they're getting a "deal" on an iPad. It's like getting an underpowered Mercedes for "only" $35,000.... even if it's comparable to a $15,000 Toyota.
0 Votes
+ -
If they are
Cylon Centurion 4th Nov 2010
I still have yet to see it at an academic level. Nothing but notebooks and netbooks as far as the eye can see.
0 Votes
+ -
@Cylon Centurion 0005

I've seen people in classes with one, but never productively. They always seem to be bought by these ego monsters so people will react to it...
0 Votes
+ -
@jmotion That's exactly right. The iPad has so much wasted potential. It's utterly useless for all the stuff it would be spectacular at if it had a better design. No ports on it is the biggest of all. What brainiac thought that was smart??? It would also ideally have the ability to expand the memory on a removeable card.
0 Votes
+ -
@jmotion shutup blueskip, that is not the point being made. The iPad is a media consumption form factor. It browses nicely, views videos nicely, and preforms the consumption of media nicely. It makes for a lousy input device.

But don't pass off the bluetooth option. The iPad simply needs a bluetooth keyboard and input is a cinch.
0 Votes
+ -
@jmotion I've seen people in classes with them, getting mad at them and putting them away after 5-10 minutes.
0 Votes
+ -
@Jimster480 People are about as likely to believe any claim you have regarding an Apple product as they are to believe an Apple fanatic claim every person in the world has an iPad, neither are based on facts and it's obvious.
0 Votes
+ -
It's eating Microsoft's lunch.

It is the new dawn in computing - we're moving away from x86 and onto ARM. We're moving away from the mouse, and onto multitouch. This is the future.
0 Votes
+ -
@gyepera Not likely...If this is the future we're doomed without a doubt.
0 Votes
+ -
How fast we forget
I hate MS 4th Nov 2010
@blueskip

The same was said when DOS replaced 3270, and again when the mouse and windows came along. Prepare for the future and throw your mouse away, innovation strikes again!
neither the vendor nor the hardware maker of the X86 platform.

However, MS does develop software for the X86 hardware. But, Microsoft makes software which can play well with any make of computer hardware. Thus, it will definitely be competing in the field of software development to go into the ARM hardware, or any other piece of equipment that needs software.

So, your anti-MS rhetoric is misdirected. You might be wanting to direct your rhetoric towards Intel and AMD, who are the manufacturers of the X86 hardware platform. But even then, you might want to reconsider your anti-X86 and anti-MS rhetoric since, neither X86 nor MS are going to be dying anytime soon. The X86 platform continues to be renewed and improved, on a yearly basis. Also, the MS OSes and other applications intended to be used on X86 computers, are not going to be dying anytime soon and they too continue to be improved upon, on a yearly basis.

So, what is it that you know that neither Microsoft nor Intel know?
0 Votes
+ -
@gyepera no. While more things are embracing the ARM platform, x86 remains the largest by far. And its not going anywhere anytime soon.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales
cardiff space man 5th Nov 2010
@gyepera
That's what I said. The iPad, love it or hate it for yourself, is winning sales from cheaper net books. Apple wasn't otherwise getting those customers so it is not cannibalizing. Microsoft is losing customers but that doesn't make them victims of cannibalization.
0 Votes
+ -
The Ipad has no real business or production use. No one wants to admit it. It really is a toy. It's too big and bulky to be useful and typing on a touch screen is getting easier, but a keyboard is still the way to productivity because you can't trust a touchscreen keyboard to be correct. When you type, you know when you've made a mistake and it isn't that way with touchscreens. I would love an ipad, but something told me that it would collect a lot of dust and I wouldn't use it as much as I thought I would. Laptops/Netbooks make take a hit now, but how long until the word gets around that Ipads/Tablets are an impulse market for the squirrels out there that like shiny toys?

I can see "gypera's" point (see above post) about multitouch and the mouse, but I would tell him that the mouse has stayed around a long time for a reason. Fingertips are fat and not very accurate.
0 Votes
+ -
and yet ...
banned from zdnet Updated - 4th Nov 2010
@chethammer
... 80% of the fortune 500 are already using or deploying it.

some people really have to be dragged by their feet into the future - screaming and howling: it's a toy, but it's a toy!
0 Votes
+ -
RE: The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales
rynning Updated - 4th Nov 2010
@banned from zdnet

It IS a toy ... in the same way the GUI and mouse were toys back in the 80's.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales
blueskip Updated - 4th Nov 2010
@banned from zdnet And 100% of the fortune 500 using it are morons. There are SO many devices better suited to use in business. The fact is it IS a toy, and will remain a toy until some major improvements are made to it. That may come in a later generation but this generation is a POS.
0 Votes
+ -
@blueskip Regardless of how many times you say it's a toy that doesn't make it fact or even remotely. Your bias is so blatantly obvious but try to put that aside for a moment and you might see the truth right in front of you, it obviously isn't right for you but apparently is for millions. Whatever are your wants, likes and dislikes do not apply to everyone. Some people like yourself have a very hard time understanding this basic reality for some reason. Is it a fact that your egos are so large you think you know what is best for everyone? Or is it the fact that your ego can not handle the fact that millions of people are buying a production you so dearly hate? Since you said "There are SO many devices better suited to use in business." why don't you go ahead and name a dozen that are direct competitors for what those deploying the iPad are going to use it for. Since you said there are "SO many" a dozen should be a piece of cake.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales
vze29knp@... Updated - 4th Nov 2010
@chethammer
I deal with several subcontract companies and found that they have or are working on APPS for the iPad and iPhone for their business and employees. This is an easy way to stay connected with their employees while on business trips. They are able to do their time cards and travel arrangements on line without pulling out their laptops or looking for a desktop. They can easily take care of home business while with the customers in meetings and on the road.
0 Votes
+ -
@vze29knp@...
And I ask you:
Why work on apps for iDevices?
Why not develop an online app that works on every device?
0 Votes
+ -
head in the sand much?
weels 4th Nov 2010
@chethammer
I use my iPad for work every day. ...EVERY...DAY...
0 Votes
+ -
@weels at kindergarten?
0 Votes
+ -
head in the sand much?
I hate MS 4th Nov 2010
@weels

These guys have obviously never lugged their 15 lb laptop bag half way around the world. Internet, email, presentations, documents, spreadsheets that's a lot of productivity in a very light package.
0 Votes
+ -
Weird...
DNSB 4th Nov 2010
@chethammer
Out of curiosity, how do you tell that you've made a mistake on a physical keyboard but are unable to notice that you've made a mistake on the touchscreen keyboard? Especially devices with a touchscreen the size of the iPads.

Inquiring minds are eager to know.
0 Votes
+ -
@chethammer The iPad absolutely has a real business use! We have a large Bed and Breakfast - currently rated #1 in PA on TripAdvisor.com - and our iPad enables us to give an instant response to reservation inquiries wherever we are, and to guide callers through our extensive and informative web-site. Our Booking Engine is a real-time on-line system, and between that and the iPad we never ever double-book rooms. In addition, we are always in touch with our email and can answer quickly and more easily than with our iPhones, and can refer callers to other B&Bs in our local association.

I suspect that there are thousands of small businesses who use the iPad very successfully with a great ROI. We also have a netbook which is now pretty much unused because of the speed, convenience and portability of the iPad.

I am therefore left with the conclusion that you know not of which you speak.
0 Votes
+ -
@aldux
How is that any different from what I can do with a decent smartphone (or soon to come tablets) with a browser?
0 Votes
+ -
@H3llb0und Don't think he said you couldn't, was making the comparison to the netbood which is what this article is about after all. You could do pretty much all of on a good smartphone but with the screen size I personally would rather do it on a tablet be it an iPad or something else.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales
Loverock Davidson 4th Nov 2010
Netbooks have been on a decline before the iPad came out, but not at the expense of Microsoft. iPads aren't doing as well as people expect either. I have yet to see someone carrying one around. Somehow I just don't find the article or quotes credible.
0 Votes
+ -
@Loverock Davidson

Me either, except on TV where Apple has done a VERY good job of "product placement" with All their products except desktop machines.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales
vze29knp@... Updated - 4th Nov 2010
@sackbut
No you probably won't see them carrying them around. They aren't like the desktop doorstops they are quite smaller and are usually in backpacks and smaller brief cases. Right before school started there were lines of people trying to get into the Apple Stores waiting to buy the iPad along with the MacBooks for school. My daughter the teacher says that it is a requirement for most students to have at least a laptop or iPad for school and in some cases they are encouraged to have both.
0 Votes
+ -
@sackbut Not that it has anything to do with this discussion but talking about product placement Apple does it pretty well but MS makes it way to obvious for my liking. I saw it so much when Bing first came out and now with WP7 again. Apple and most others are usually fairly subtle but with Bing and WP7 it's almost like they are trying to slap you across the face to make sure you saw it.
0 Votes
+ -
@Loverock Davidson
Whether you all see them or not, the iPad is selling as well or better than any new consumer electronics device. It will have sold close to 15 million units by year's end and some projections are running around 50 million units for 2011.

The Mac has been selling in record numbers for years now so much so that Apple is now in the top 5 computer makers. That should really annoy PC OEMs. But the iPad is already OUTSELLING the Mac in less than a year. That should scare the crap out of them. And what's even scarier is that they can't even come up with a credible 10 inch tablet in time for Christmas after nine months.

The iPad is filling all those gaps where a powerful, relatively inexpensive computing device is needed, yet without the hassles of a traditional OS, short battery life and complicated/overpriced software and peripherals--drawbacks of virtually every other current solution out there. There are already gobs of medical apps, POS apps--(look at Apple's own retail chain, all sales are rung up on iPads and iPod touches), restaurants, mobile sales, warehouse/inventory management, hotel concierge, in-flight entertainment systems (Qantas Airlines), home theatre/security, auto entertainment systems, etc.
The iDevice universe combined with Airplay is already creating a multi-billion dollar business for third party home theater components. And iPhone/iPad combined with an AppleTV and Airplay is a killer roadwarrior presentation system. Stand anywhere in a 300 or 3000 seat room and give a presentation with an iPad on any HDTV or projector.

I'm telling you right now, the iPad is going to rule the slate market just like the iPod has ruled the mp3 player market. There are three very big differences between the slate market and the phone market:
1. No neanderthal telcos with their artificial, prehistoric limitations and technical barriers. (Note how Apple completely bypassed the telcos on Facetime) Note how Apple got the wifi iPad in China in less than nine months instead of futzing around with telcos for over 2 years like it did with the iPhone.
2. The entire ecosystem is already in place-retail network/distribution, apps, peripherals, media, podcasts, etc. iPhone didn't have half the ecosystem that the iPad has. Is there any retail chain that doesn't sell iPads now, in less than 9 months? I mean, Apple is already selling iPads at Verizon, fer cryin' out loud! This Christmas, consumers won't even be able to see any other tablet because the iPad IS the forest and the trees.
3. Apple is going for the pricing jugular this time. Apple can already risk producing tens of millions of units and get the lowest component prices--no one else can make that risk, so they are stuck in a very real chicken and egg pricing dilemma. And because Apple shares multiple major components between all four of its iDevices--iPod touch, iPhone, iPad and iTV--it has further economies of scale that the competition can't touch. Except for the screen, virtually every component inside the iPad comes from the iPhone.

Again, it is very telling that NO ONE else has a credible 10" tablet ready in time for Christmas even though several OEMs have been making tablets for years. They simply can't match the Apple quality/battery life and were caught completely flatfooted by the $499 entry price.
0 Votes
+ -
@Synthmeister "where a powerful, relatively inexpensive computing device"

Not powerful, and definitely not cheap
0 Votes
+ -
@Loverock Davidson
"iPads aren't doing as well as people expected" Are you kidding me? Demand for the iPad has blown every pre-launch projection out of the water.
I've read your posts for years, and I'm aware that you are a known bloviator that has no peer - but are you really so narcissistic that you gauge the success of a product by how many you've seen? I take it you don't live in a tech-savvy / urban area - I can see three iPads in use from where I sit right now (Seattle).
Your hatred of the Apple brand blinds you to the obvious. Sad, really.
0 Votes
+ -
This story is whack. Netbook sales outpace iPad by 4:1
Dietrich T. Schmitz, ~ Your Linux Advocate 4th Nov 2010
0 Votes
+ -
I guess you didn't go as far as this...

"Netbooks may be still be selling well, but that big reduction in the number of them expected to ship this year shows just how much the tablet is eating into the netbook sales."
0 Votes
+ -
Netbook sales will outpace iPad for the next two years
Dietrich T. Schmitz, ~ Your Linux Advocate Updated - 4th Nov 2010
@zkiwi

Netbook sales have grown, there has been no quarterly 'dip' so the 4:1 is significant more in the respect that Netbooks are indeed eating into Notebook and Laptop sales.

Since you find it convenient to insinuate my reading comprehension is not up to snuff, read the article I linked to and note the last sentence:

"So tablets will replace the old, small, cheap computer devices, while netbooks evolve into sub-notebooks - a role plenty of netbook users are already putting their devices to, if the anecdotal evidence of Register and Reg Hardware readers is anything to go by. "

Get it? Got it!
Reading is fundamental.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: The iPad IS cannibalizing netbook sales
Regulator1956 4th Nov 2010
@zkiwi : So, the analysts were expecting 58M netbooks sold and now only 43M. Sales of tablets will be 11M. That adds to 54M, total - not 58M. This tells me that something(s) else is affecting netbook sales. Could be cannibals, could be the economy, could be lions and tigers and bears, oh my.
0 Votes
+ -
And yet...
zkiwi 4th Nov 2010
The folk who wrote the piece reckon that iPads are the cause of reduced sales. They do note attribute it to anything else.

That and if a netbook becomes a sub-notebook then it's not a netbook any more.

Reading, yes, you fail at it.
0 Votes
+ -
I am a business owner and IT professional. I also thought the iPad was just a "toy" or big iPhone, however I've had one for about a month and have ditched my net book. I thought I would miss flash, I don't because I use Wyse Pocketcloud connect to access my PC and I get my full windows desktop on my iPad and it runs faster that it did on my net book...Go figure.

Join the conversation!

Formatting +
BB Codes - Note: HTML is not supported in forums
  • [b] Bold [/b]
  • [i] Italic [/i]
  • [u] Underline [/u]
  • [s] Strikethrough [/s]
  • [q] "Quote" [/q]
  • [ol][*] 1. Ordered List [/ol]
  • [ul][*] · Unordered List [/ul]
  • [pre] Preformat [/pre]
  • [quote] "Blockquote" [/quote]
ie8 fix
Click Here
ie8 fix

The best of ZDNet, delivered

ZDNet Newsletters

Get the best of ZDNet delivered straight to your inbox

Facebook Activity

White Papers, Webcasts, & Resources
ie8 fix
ie8 fix