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Hardware 2.0

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

The sub-$100 Android handset - Google's doomsday weapon?

By | May 26, 2011, 8:37am PDT

Summary: Could the sub-$100 Android handset be Google’s ‘doomsday weapon’ against Apple, RIM, Microsoft and Nokia?

Could the sub-$100 Android handset be Google’s ’doomsday weapon‘ against Apple, RIM, Microsoft and Nokia?

Arima Communications is developing an Android smartphone that will sell for less than $100 … an important psychological price point to break if smartphones are to become the new cellphones.

According to Digitimes, Chinese-language Commercial Times is reporting that Arima is getting ready to ship samples to clients and is expected to ship five million handsets in the second quarter of 2011 compared to four million shipped in the first.

The handset market is odd. For example, while Apple has only 4% of the global cellphone market, it pulls in a massive 50% of the profits. Everyone else’s profits come from that other 50%. And that’s important. While Apple has a hugely popular brand and massive profit margins, everyone else is scrabbling in the dirt for coins.

But …

Cellphones are one of those things where branding sells. The iPhone is the best example of this, but it’s far from being alone. Nokia, Samsung, HTC and many more players rely heavily on branding to sell to an increasingly fickle market. Who made your phone is just as important (if not more important) that what OS it runs or what it can do (or what the owner can do with it).

Poll

Is a sub-$100 Android handset a 'doomsday weapon'?

A no-name brand might be able to grab enough market share to exist, but if price really was was an issue, the iPhone and other expensive smartphones would have never taken off like they did. Also, with carrier subsidy, it’s possible to get a top-end smartphone on the cheap (or even for nothing) in exchange for signing your life away for a couple of years.

Nah, a sub-$100 handset is no ‘doomsday weapon.’ OEMs don’t really have anything to worry here.

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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If it can call and text messages..... 'Nuff said...
grillomalta@... 21st Jun
Despite owning an iphone myself, I have found that it is no big deal after all... I may surf the net to see some football (soccer) scores, or play a game or two to kill the time... but in reality, I mainly use the phone for calling or texting.

I don't even HAVE a data plan or a contract...it's simply a pay as you go card...

Maybe we are giving too much importance to the darn 'connectivity' thing. Too much FB, MSN, Twitter, etc...

Just my opininon...
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doom
tatiGmail 26th May 2011
I don't think a sub $100 cellphone will matter much if the processor, etc... aren't up par, but it will force prices down for the iPhone, samsungs, and HTCs. No more will we be required to shell out $800 to buy an iPhone. price cut will happen.

However, a sub $200 tablet would just be doomsday weapon for not only iPad, and also laptops and more.
@tatiGmail: ... and superweak SoCs.

That is how Google crunches 350 000 or even 400 000 activations per day.
@denisrs
Link up. Example time to back up your post.
@hoaxoner He might be referring to the $150 Androids through Virgin mobile. I think maybe their LG Android phone goes on sale for $99 sometimes. Virgin has the cheapest data plan too -- $25 per month for 300 minutes and unlimited text and data. All no contract too.
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It's the price of data plan ...
LBiege 26th May 2011
that eats buyers' wallet month after month so the cellphone price has limited impact.
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A sub-$200 desktop computer with an 8-core processor, 16G of RAM, 2T's of hard drive and a 100G SSD for the Windows 7/64 OS would be really cool too.

Do you suppose anybody knows where to buy the parts to make a tablet like the Xoom for less than $300?
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Nonsense
Economister 26th May 2011
@Robert Hahn

Computers used to be $4K to $5K. Now they are $500. $100 smart phones are coming, but it may take a while yet.
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Marvell is the GIANT giant killer!!!
Monarky 26th May 2011
@tatiGmail In China they have far more competition and are growing at an exponentially greater rate. Right now Marvell is putting out cheaper chips that are shockingly fast and powerful built on all ARM architecture designs (like Samsung Galaxy SII w/ Exynos) w/ Mali GPU's.

What seem to us like cheap no name manufacturers are actually starting to take a bigger cut of the pie. Including Arima, but most of all ZTE. Who I think puts out very underrated phones and equipment.

They've been attacking the European market with a vengeance and even their base phones are good stuff. Being made in China is no longer a bad thing.

On a trip to Europe last year, I had dropped my 3GS while fiddling with luggage at Manchester, UK. It already had a slight crack in the screen, but this destroyed it. So I was forced to buy a PAYGO phone. Bought the Cheapest from '3' Three Phone and it was a 3G ZTE. It has amazing features and the service carrier absolutely kills any American Cell Carrier.

My youngest daughter now uses it on AT&T for the built in features like Skype, MSN Picasa, tethering (built-in), Facebook, etc. Although not all Three Phone features work here. For me it was a life saver using Skype to Skype free to UK friends and calling back home! .....cheap and made in China are no longer bad traits to me!!!
@tatiGmail A sub $100 handset will be the equivalent of a sub $500 PC. No margin is no margin and the only people making money will be the carrier, who still get to charge the same data rates regardless of what your phone costs.

And sub $200 tablets won't do anything to impact the iPad. I know it's a constant refrain, but Apple isn't making 600 dollars on a 699 iPad. Sub 200 dollar anything will make comprimises that will relegate such a device to the lowest common denominator. Just as the presence of Dell in the desktop market has done nothing to slow Mac adoption, cheap tablets will do nothing to hurt the iPad. And a sub 100 dollar phone still means the iPhone is the gold standard.
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@tatiGmail I'm assuming that you are not in the US to have to pay $800 for an iPhone - I bought my iPhone 4 for $250 (refurbished) with a 2 year contract and I was wondering where you were getting the $800 price.
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OLPC Redux?
facebook@... 26th May 2011
Let's see the specs. OLPC had anticipated sending out 150 million XO-1 devices every year from 2007. Total shipments in 2010 are closer to 1.6 million.

If it has the right blend of components and features, it may do well. If it is a throwaway $99 device, it may not take any significant market share from anyone.
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What About
Hasam1991 26th May 2011
What about when windows phone 7 is free with 2 year contract??
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Only idiots
Economister 26th May 2011
@Hasam1991

would fall for that
@Economister

"fall for"?

Sounds like a good deal on my favorite phone OS to me.
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Yes, "fall for"
Economister 26th May 2011
@SlithyTove

Are you naive enough to think you are not paying for the phone over the life of the contract? Apparently so.
@Economister

opposed to paying 150.00 for an iPhone and still being in the same length contract? apparently so
@Economister

Are you naive enough to think you are not paying for the phone over the life of the contract? Apparently so.

Of course you are paying for the phone over the life of the contract. But if you don't get the phone the price of the plans doesn't change.

So Economister, would you rather have a phone you are paying for or not have a phone you are paying for?
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@Hasam1991
Still no one will use that one.. hey that is windows
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@Hasam1991
Still no one will use that one.. hey that is windows
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AT&T is already discounting iPhones
Will Pharaoh 26th May 2011
@Hasam1991
for $49 - who would buy a $99 Android phone when you can get an iPhone for $50 less?

It doesn't make sense.
Working in Africa, and been using Chineese fake Nokias and other fake brand names. This is nothing to worry about
@blacktiger419
is a fake nokia better than the real thing??
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A firm grasp on the obvious?
Economister Updated - 26th May 2011
I remember when laptops were 3 grand plus. Now they are under 500 bucks. Of course we will see a $100 Android smart phone and of course other manufacturers' profit margins will be squeezed.

The first attempts may indeed be junk and the fan boys will howl with laughter and ridicule. The $100 Android smart phone may have the last laugh however.
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I don't the sub-$100 price is as important as not needing a $25+++ data plan from the provider if you purchase a smartphone. Purchasing a smartphone right now pretty much guarantees a $100++ cell phone bill. That is the problem.
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I don't get it!
dragon@... 26th May 2011
I just receintly got my company 4 Sprint, LG Optimus S?, Android ver 3.whatever.

They work great, decent battery, great reception, we even like Android now! Nice Apps.

And they were ALL FREE!!!
Notice the price? $0.00, FREE.
Why would anyone pay anything for a phone when you get all this for FREE.
\\\\ Oh it's less than $100.00, right, like I'll get a more expensinve one for FREE.
Just my take.
@dragon@...

Perhaps they are saying it's $100 unsubsidized.
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Wrong take
Economister Updated - 26th May 2011
@dragon@...

They are NOT free. Heard about nothing down, so much per month? That is a clue. Obviously you need one.
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iPhone frustration.
BobsYourUnclw 26th May 2011
The iPhone is a great device, however, I can't tell you how many times, especially since I have my HTC Evo shift that iPhone user's lament that it just doesn't do what they want. From widgets to flash, from ringtones (without a trip to the computer) to saving attachments in emails (yes, there are 2000 apps that do that, why can't it just be done) it is a source of frustration.

I think the real problem for Apple is simply the high end Android phones. As more and more iPhone users see the endless widgets (like radio control of all interfaces), turning WiFi. BlueTooth, 4G on off without digging, there is a lot of envy.

I believe that Apple will be forced to revamp and "invent" widgets and more customer configuration AND embed some of the missing functions into the OS pretty soon, especially as Android becomes easier and easier.

Or, as a friend put it "I don't want to by anymore &&%*&%(*&%& Apps on my %(*&%$*&%& phone". She is now Android. Been with and loved and the Iphone 1,2 and 3.

As mentioned in the story, if you do your leg work, and especially if switching carriers, between Amazon wireless, Wirefly and a slow day at the carrier store, if you push you can usually get even the top of the line phones for free or almost free.
It's not the up-front costs that are daunting, it's the data plans.
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Sprint.
BobsYourUnclw 26th May 2011
@rlorenz
All in for $69 (or $79 if you have a 4G phone). Unlimited text, calls to any mobile (you only have 500 for calls to landlines) and unlimited data. AT&T and Verizon are simply laughably expensive. Course, they have the iPhone. No I don't work for or in any way get something by recommending Sprint.
is fooling themselves. Cell phones are pretty much commodity hardware items now, and smartphones will follow soon enough. That's how electronics technology has always worked. The top end phone of today will in about 2 years be widely available for free on contract or unsubsidized for $100-200. Base Android phones are even now replacing what's been called the 'feature' phone, and eventually will probably replace even the lowest end flipper phone. I think that within 5 years, virtually all phones will be smart phones. Profitability is an important factor, but the fact that Android could eventually, in this scenario, take 80 or 90% of the entire cell phone market of the world - well, that's pretty significant.
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I think you've got....
Economister 26th May 2011
@ArtInvent

it figured out. happy
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For a good device
bezoeker 26th May 2011
Think there is a huge market for a good low priced device. Many people will not give the money at actual prices for "just a phone". Others just have other priority's.
The question is not if it would kill all competition, it probably won't, but how strong it would be it one type would be left alone on that market. But that would probably not happen to.
I imagine they hope so, since the previous generation iPhone 3gs is kicking their butt on ATT at $49.

Joe
Apple has had a sub $50 iPhone now for about a year, and it still selling well. AT&T advertises it quite often.
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Aaaaahhh...
Economister 26th May 2011
@woneal@...

it is NOT a $50 phone. You pay the balance off over the 24 monthly payments. How difficult is that to understand?
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If you are a new Sprint customer, or $49 if you are upgrading/renewing your contract with Sprint.

http://wireless.amazon.com/dp/B003ZDO2H6

I'd say that is a sub $100 phone that actually has merit and decent specs. Been happy with mine mostly, not happy with slow update cycle though; it took months longer than it should have to get Froyo and we are still waiting for Gingerbread.
Only the most tight-fisted cheapskates will be buying those crappy low-specced smartphones. There's no way any company is going to have high-quality displays and touch screens on some $100 smartphone. Apple has absolutely nothing to fear from those cheapskates. Loyal Apple customers are not going to switch just because of some cheap smartphone. Only an idiot would believe that most consumers are that tight-fisted. That's why so many people started trashing their $250 netbooks to buy the $500+ iPad.

I'd like to see all those cheap Android smartphone vendors competing with one another and driving each other into bankruptcy as each tries to lower the cost a little more.

There will always be at least 25% to 30% of consumers that will be willing to pay top dollar for their smartphones and Apple will happily oblige them.
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Despite owning an iphone myself, I have found that it is no big deal after all... I may surf the net to see some football (soccer) scores, or play a game or two to kill the time... but in reality, I mainly use the phone for calling or texting.

I don't even HAVE a data plan or a contract...it's simply a pay as you go card...

Maybe we are giving too much importance to the darn 'connectivity' thing. Too much FB, MSN, Twitter, etc...

Just my opininon...

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