Time for some 2012 predictions ...

Summary: Time to gaze into the crystal ball and see what 2012 might bring.

OK, now that 2012 is here, time for a few predictions.

Microsoft

Windows - We're going to see Windows 8 unleashed this year, so there's going to be a lot of excitement there. Personally, I'm not so sure how this new OS will be received by the masses. It's adds some much-needed polish on top of Windows 7, but it also brings with it a whole heap of tablet/touch stuff that will be irrelevant to the majority of Windows users.

Windows Phone - Microsoft's mobile platform has, overall, been well-received. Its usage share is tiny at present, but given that Nokia is kicking Symbian to the kerb, and RIM seems to be in a death-spiral, I wouldn't be surprised to see Windows Phone being in, or at least close to, the #3 position in terms of smartphone handset sales by this time next year.

Xbox - Don't expect anything exciting here in terms of hardware. We might see a revamped console, but it will essentially be a cheaper reworking of the current hardware. My guess is that Microsoft will continue to push the Xbox as an entertainment hub (TV, streaming, etc) as opposed to a dedicated gaming device.

Apple

iPhone - Will there be a new iPhone this year? More than likely, but beyond that I've no idea what the changes will be (other than more powerful hardware). My personal guess is that the new hardware will look different to the existing hardware, but I have nothing to base that on other than Apple likes to revamp the external appearance of a device every few years to prompt sales.

iPad - Expect new hardware. What? No idea, but I'm guessing that the improvements will be evolutionary rather than evolutionary. I don't expect the iPad 3 to look much different to the iPad 2 but the hardware (CPU and graphics) will get a boost. I'm also expecting storage to be bumped to 128GB. I'm still not sold on the idea of a 'retina display' screen

iOS - No idea what new stuff we'll see in iOS. Maybe more photo-based improvements, and possibly more social media integration (Facebook).

Apple TV - My prediction is that Apple WILL NOT release a TV during 2012. That's all I'm going to say about that.

Android

If you thought 2011 was a big year for Android, wait and see what 2012 brings. While Android certainly has issues that Google need to address, I expect this platform to go from strength to strength during 2012, especially on smartphones. As I've said before I won't be surprised to see Android hit 1 million activations per day during 2012.

PCs

Windows 8 is still a ways off so OEMs are going to have to work hard to reinvigorate PC sales. I'm hearing all sorts of interesting whispers as to what's on the way from the various OEMs during 2012, but to be honest none of it sounds all that exciting. Most of what I've come across feels the OEMs are trying to clone Apple's success by cloning ideas ...

As I said earlier, I'm not sure what effect Windows 8 will have on PC sales. My prediction here is that OEMs are going to have a hard time convincing customers that they need Windows 8's touch-based improvements on a PC that's kitted out with a keyboard and mouse.

Tablets

2012 is going to be the year of the iPad. I don't see Android changing that, and I don't see Windows 8 tablets changing that.

Smartphones

Expect more and more lawsuits and legal exchanges between the big players. Android and iOS will continue to dominate, but old players such as Symbian and BlackBerry will be sidelined by Windows Phone.

My misses of 2011!

OK, your time to gloat at some of the predictions I made during 2011 that fell flat on their faces. Two stand out from the rest as being way off the mark!

  • Mac malware - Yes, the Mac OS X platform was hit by a sizable malware attack, but within a few weeks it was gone. Panic over. While I still think that it's a good idea for Mac users to have security software installed on their systems, the whole Mac Defender thing was blown out of all proportions by pundits wanting to point fingers at mac users and yell 'I told you so!'
  • Redesigned iPhone 5 - There might have lots of speculation and rumor that Apple was going to revamp the design of the new iPhone in 2011, and a case manufacturer was duped into making a ton of cases for a device that never appeared, but Apple didn't change the look of the iPhone 4S. But hey, 51% of Hardware 2.0 readers also expected Apple to come out with something completely new too!

Image creditMararie | Animation credit: Vexentricity

Topics: Windows, PCs, Smartphones, Operating Systems, Mobile OS, iPad, iPhone, iOS, Apple, Android

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19 comments
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  • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

    " the whole Mac Defender thing was blown out of all proportions by pundits"

    Do I smell an Ed Bott reference
    anono
  • I'm still waiting on a tablet purchase, mostly just to see what happens.

    I'm not in a rush to buy a tablet, but want one eventually. As of today, the iPad is clearly the superior choice. Basically, none of them will do exactly what I want and iPad seems to have the fewest annoyances from my perspective. So, I'll wait to see if a decent, reasonably priced WIN 8 tablet comes out. I predict a tablet will be in my possession by this time next year. I just don't know which one.
    shawkins
  • Microsoft???s mobile platform has, overall, been well-received.

    What's the weather like on your planet?
    symbolset
    • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

      @symbolset You're confusing 'selling well' with well-received.
      Vorjay
      • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

        @Vorjay Well duh. Typically for something to be received well, poorly or indifferent it must first be acquired at all.
        symbolset
      • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

        @symbolset WebOS was also well received, but it didn't sell. Most of the press was very positive about WP7, those that have used it are positive, but it has failed to penetrate the mass conciousness - lack of advertising being a big part of the problem, at least over here; apart from a minor side roll in a couple of Vodafone and O2 adverts, it hasn't been promoted at all, so little wonder it doesn't sell well.
        wright_is
  • Netbooks using Cedar Trail Atom Technology

    Ooops. I guess your forgot. Heh.
    How many will opt for a Cedar Trail Atom-based Netbook over an Ultra in 2012?
    It's going to be big like ahh bizillion Netbooks. Yeh. That's right.
    Dietrich T. Schmitz *Your
    • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

      @Dietrich T. Schmitz * Your Linux Advocate

      Oh no, another year of Dietrich T. Schmitz's 'How Linux Will Rule the World'.
      Great, something to look forward to (not)
      Blogsworth
      • 2012 Linux prediction, for those who laugh

        @Blogsworth <br><br>DTS will boldly convene the heads of the various Linux dev tanks around one table, inspired as such to create the transcendental mother of all distros, UBERLINUX (yes, you heard it here first). Then we'll see who's laughing! And who's left standing!<br><br>Dang right Gates will leap out of cozy foundation retirement.
        klumper
  • More ridiculous Windows Phone predictions

    Windows Phone debuted in 2010 with 5% marketshare. It has since fallen to below 2% marketshare and still dropping. The first Nokia handset was a sales flop.

    How many years will this fiasco continue? How long will fans keep predicting it will reach greatness, when in reality it has collapsed into insignificant marketshare?
    Vbitrate
  • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

    My predictions for 2012.<br><br>Adobe software flaw found causing...<br>Firefox flaw causes...<br>MS Internet browser causes...<br>Sony server attacked... <br><br>Meanwhile for the rest of 2012 the old game continues -<br><br>MS sue Apple over copyright... <br>Apple sue Google over copyright... <br>Google sue MS over copyright... <br>Nokia sue Samsung over copyright... <br>Samsung sue MS over copyright... <br>Motorola sue Nokia over copyright... <br>MS sue Samsung and Sony over copyright... <br>Samsung and Motorola sue Apple over copyright... <br>MS, Nokia, Apple sue Motorola, Google and FSF over copyright... <br>and on, and on, and on...<br><br>And finally Apple release a slightly improved piece of hardware and the world never recovers, 'The Maya calendar was correct' quips a RIM spokesman.
    Agnostic_OS
    • NO WAY

      @Agnostic_OS

      are they going to copyright sue that little. That's wayyyyy too optimistic.
      klumper
    • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

      @Agnostic_OS Except that nobody sues over copyright in the tech industry, they sue over patent and trademark issues. Copyright covers only the actual source code used to write a piece of software, and all the players are well-versed in reverse engineering any piece of software. The open-source folks reverse-engineer everything, as few of their software features are actually original.
      ssaha
      • Do you really think anyone pays attention

        @ssaha

        to the specifics of what they're suing over anymore (other than their private armies of legal pinheads, analysts, and the obligatory tech press), with so much litigation tossed about from every imaginable direction?

        And are you really sure copyright infringement suits aren't bandied across the tech industry? Let's try this. Put "copyright infringement" + "Microsoft" or [+ Apple] or [+ Google] or [+ Oracle |+ Sun] in your favorite search engine and see what comes up.

        Report back when ready.
        klumper
  • My read on your read

    Windows 8 gives me Vista like vibes. The kind you feel walking onto a newly frozen lake. Frankly, and as regards the desktop, Metro ought to be a UI feature you turn on if you care to (for the 10% takers), not one you need to turn off. I still have a hard time grasping how touch translates to the big screen. One word summary: L A M E.<br><br>[Yet without it, what exactly do they have to sell past Win7 so soon? *crickets*]<br><br>Surprisingly strong and steady Android sales to date, even if Apple continues to dominate small form + gadgetry overall. Will that change in 2012, sans Jobs as the firm's guiding light? Only time will tell.<br><br>As for the Mac malware strike earlier this year: Significant damage rendered? Overall, no. Significant torpedo wound to the Mac's proud flank, to include many disbelievers in its ardent gallery? B I N G O.<br><br>Bests to you during the new year AKH.
    klumper
  • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

    "OK, now that 2012 is here, time for a few predictions."

    Eh, I lost interest in ZDNet's so-called "predictions" a long time ago.

    "Personally, I???m not so sure how this new OS will be received by the masses."

    Personally, I think techies are really bad at judging the reaction of the masses. Office 2007 and 2010 sold fine, despite the deep hatred it got from techies.

    "Xbox - Don???t expect anything exciting here in terms of hardware."

    That's too bad, if true. Consoles are junk right now in terms of tech. The next generation of consoles is long overdue.

    My prediction: They may be forced to announce a new generation once the Wii U is released. Then they won't really have a choice.

    "Expect more and more lawsuits and legal exchanges between the big players."

    Agreed.

    "Redesigned iPhone 5"

    Yeah, Apple is very good at keeping things close to the chest. You'd think ZDNet would learn this, but no, they don't.
    CobraA1
  • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

    >> the improvements will be evolutionary rather than evolutionary

    Hmm
    mauricedb
    • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

      @mauricedb
      I was looking to see if someone else would comment on this. I suppose he meant revolutionary in the second word, who knows? When people don't proofread their work it ends up with statements like that.
      In my case it ends up with alot of typographical errors.
      dhays
  • RE: Time for some 2012 predictions ...

    I got HEADACHE !!!!
    Greenman9