Will the Firefox gain a market share of 50% by 2009?

Will the Firefox gain a market share of 50% by 2009?

Summary: Will the Firefox Web browser gain a market share of 50 percent by January 1, 2009?

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TOPICS: Browser
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Popular Science runs an online game called PopSci Predictions Exchange (a game where you bet - with virtual money - on the future of science and technology).  An IPO I saw today caught my eye:

Will the Firefox Web browser gain a market share of 50 percent by January 1, 2009?

It's been around only since the end of 2004, but in that short period, Mozilla's open-source, multiplatform Web browser Firefox has managed to rack up 15 percent of the worldwide browser market. Used by many as a more secure, dependable and standards-abiding alternative to Microsoft's Internet Explorer (which is still the most used browser by a considerable margin), Firefox is expected to continue its upward trend.

This proposition will pay out at POP$100 if the total market share of Mozilla Firefox reaches 50 percent on or before January 1, 2009, according to the statistics kept by Netapplications.com.

Interesting - ideal for a quick poll:

 [poll id=159]

Thoughts?

Topic: Browser

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28 comments
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  • Depends on IE 8

    If there is no IE 8 by 2009 then sure. If IE 8 is released before then and it suck then sure. If IE 8 is good enough when it's released or even better than IE 7 then I'd say no.
    voska
  • Nothing wrong with IE IMO

    I've never been hacked, jacked, or whacked on the web while using any version of Internet Explorer. My theory is that those who have problems with IE either (A) don't have any idea what they are doing and somehow manage to set all the IE security settings to low or (B) went to a questionable web site and ran a script on their computer which then crashed said computer and want to now blame IE for their own stupidity.

    I've used all versions of Firefox and I am not impressed enough to make a permanent move to that browser. There are some apps that work with IE and not Firefox. Internet Explorer is a nice browser that works well (on a properly maintained computer) and there is no way that Firefox will achieve a 50% market share. There are far more people who just use 'what's there and what works' than geeks like us.
    matt.nelson
  • Could only hope so- IE is a POS

    They botched the UI of 7 (like Vista and Office 2007) and IE is still bloated and a mess.

    I love FF and even the new Safari betas. They work great!
    ITGuy04
    • Ah, you are the one person Safari works for?

      I knew at least 1 person had to be able to run Safari without having it crash every 30 seconds. Nice to meet you!
      NonZealot
      • Works for me as well

        So I guess that makes two of us.

        Opera on the other hand, randomly likes to shut down from time to time. It hasn't in the last week, but before that I never knew.

        Firefox 3 is coming along nicely, but it was a bit destructive at first. Minefield was the appropriate name for the Alpha.
        nucrash
  • MS has forked IE7

    The most updated patched version on XP does not have the same version number as the same one on Vista
    My XP IE7 crashes all the time especially when reading deep into one of these letter sections, Vista IE7 does not
    Yet it is much faster than Firefox 2.0.0.4 especially when doing bandwidth tests but also subjectively
    Safari 3.0.2 for Windows does not render msnbc.com correctly so I'm just too annoyed to use it much although it seems fast
    Unless OEMs start installing Firefox (not putting the install file on the box) it won't get anywhere near 50% in the near term

    A
    andycher
  • It would destroy the Internet...

    Microsoft, (not AL GORE) invented the Internet as we know it today. How? By releasing IE3 back in the late 1990's and allowing the world to experience the Internet as it was meant to be. Although IE2 and IE1 were AWESOME, IE3 really brought it up another notch. If Firefox were to reach 50% market share, the days of rich Internet content backed up ActiveX controls would be over. We would all suffer.
    Mike Cox
    • Try Netscape did thar,

      NT
      mrlinux
    • Don't know what you're smoking...

      ... but maybe you should put down the bong and back away slowly.

      Oh, and you get 6.5 out of 10. This post was only partially blinded by your lack of depth perception. Evidently you took your lips off of Ballmer's posterior just long enough to get some air. Either that or you just weren't feeling the 'I-love-MS-so-much-I-can't-stand-it' mojo today.

      -MC
      Mercutio_Viz
      • Rack up a tasty Tuna

        Shame on you Mike, you know that you can't be catching all of those Blue Fins. They have limits on those. You are going to have to through this large, slow, yet succulent one back. :/
        nucrash
    • Stealth Mike

      Got an 8.0 - quiet but effective!
      Freebird54
  • Did the article intend 5%?

    Recently, the issuance of IE 7 caused the growth of FireFox to cease, and the issuance of Vista has caused a very slightly declining share because many people obtaining Vista have not bothered to download FireFox. And that's with Vista having just over 4% of operating systems in use.

    Interestingly, the Linux share of operating systems in use has declined from the peak of 0.7% when Vista was issued. As far as I can tell, that means either that people have switched from Linux to Vista or that Linux is retaining users but Vista is enlarging the market for computers. Either is an interesting result.
    Anton Philidor
    • Correction

      Linux's peak share of the market was 0.8%; it's now at 0.7%.

      Some entertaining links:

      http://news.softpedia.com/news/Linux-in-Last-Place-Windows-Vista-Didn-039-t-Do-It-59533.shtml

      http://news.softpedia.com/news/WOW-Enraged-User-Shoots-Computer-5-Times-after-Installing-Windows-Vista-59398.shtml

      http://news.softpedia.com/news/IE-Up-Firefox-Down-Firefox-Users-Upgrade-to-Internet-Explorer-56212.shtml
      Anton Philidor
      • and from onestat...

        it's gone up.

        http://www.onestat.com/html/aboutus_pressbox44-mozilla-firefox-has-slightly-increased.html

        so who do we believe? you know the saying about statistics, right? ;-)

        gnu/linux...giving choice to the nex(11)t generation.
        Arm A. Geddon
    • Firefox

      First thing I did was to load Firefox on my HP VISTA Ultimate PC to prevent problems with IE 7. I do not use IE at all. Any program that requires it I by pass.
      jerry.pulliam@...
  • Preloads

    Bottom line is that most people will use what's installed when the machine ships, and that's what Microsoft gives them. So far, MS has managed to stay ahead of everyone trying to substitute other browsers [1] so MSIE is still the one browser installed on every OEM machine.

    Has anyone been able to find an OEM machine from a major vendor with Firefox? Thought not. Thus, the only people installing it will continue to be those clued enough to take the trouble, and that's [b]not[/b] going to be a majority.

    Think that sucks? Learn to deal.

    [1] Yeah, I know that there was supposed to be a court case on the subject. Microsoft won: you can't substitute other browsers.
    Yagotta B. Kidding
  • Depends on IE 7

    There were some spectacular IE 6 vulnerabilities that had even the most pro MS camps publicizing that everyone should use FF which pushed it's adoption substantially. If similar events (even if overhyped) happen with IE 7 and you have basically anyone who blogs stating that IE 7 should not be used, download FF or Opera, I can see it reaching 40-50%, if not, it will probably grow more slowly.

    In any case, 15% works just fine for me, few commercial sites can afford to throw away 15% of the market with IE only extensions and ActiveX controls. Surfing the web and finding a site that doesn't work with FF is getting harder and harder, the only bottom line that really matters.

    TripleII
    TripleII-21189418044173169409978279405827
  • It depends on Google and others using all of the Goodies in FireFox to

    create premium versions of web applications that only run on FireFox. Microsoft wins if everything is written to the lowest common denominator (IE). Microsoft is intentionally limiting the functionality of IE (and thus browsers in general), so that you will have to use MS proprietary technology to create a richer experience. They only way to bread that is to get enough to write to FireFox, and REQUIRE FireFox for premium versions.

    The other thing that will help is a higher percentage of alternative platforms, so that writing for FireFox, is the only way for web developers to get sufficient coverage.
    DonnieBoy
  • Skewed audience

    Once again teh ZDnet audience is revealed as people who would rather stick with a clunky browser used by few rather than use the free modern one that comes with Windows. Add all the Mac and *nix desktop users together and you might get 6% of global usage - they must all be members here.
    tonymcs@...
    • What is this modern brower?

      The one that you talk about that comes with Windows?

      Did OEMs start packaging Opera with with Windows?

      Last I checked most if not all of the features that are new to Internet Explorer 7 were developed and in place in other browers as standard functions.

      Infact, Opera has some that others have yet to even try and yet no one even bothers to consider it.

      So, tell me these features.
      nucrash