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The coming mass market for genetic sequencing

By | April 30, 2010, 8:28am PDT

Summary: The impact of a mass market is unclear. Genetic testing kits are now all over the Internet, with mass market labs like Quest Diagnostics already in the market.

How much would you pay to have your full genetic history?

$50,000? $5,000? $1,000?

How about $100?

All kinds of genetic tests are becoming cheap as chips. The cost of testing labs is following Moore’s Law down the cost curve.

(The genetic testing kit from 23andme to the right was called one of the 20 top inventions of 2008 by Time Magazine. The company’s current price for a genetic test is $499, according to their Web site.)

While doing my own workout this morning I listened to a podcast of The Splendid Table interview a high school student who had tested New York foods. (The sheep’s milk cheese came from cows, she said, and the sturgeon caviar was paddle fish.) Genetic tests are now standard equipment in all kinds of crime-fighting, not just murder cases.

But we are no longer talking about cheap tests that can tell cows from sheep, or can identify a father or criminal suspect. We’re talking about gathering all your genetic details, and asking you to act on them.

Some doctors are asking ethical questions about this, concerned patients will demand cures for diseases they do not yet have.

What does it mean when genetic testing becomes a mass market? As Stanford bioengineer Stephen Quake noted after having his test done, “It’s all bad news.” Genes don’t show happiness or athleticism. The results of a test usually tell you what you’re likely to die of, and we’re all likely to die of something.

As microfluidic devices come on stream, dropping the costs of a test to that of a good restaurant meal, some big companies are positioning themselves to take advantage. PerkinElmer has bought a genetic testing company, pitching “the early detection of disease.”

The impact of a mass market is unclear. Genetic testing kits are now all over the Internet, with mass market labs like Quest Diagnostics already in the market.

The time for setting a policy on all this is here. What should it be?

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Disclosure

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn has been a journalist, writer and part-time futurist for over 30 years. At the present moment I run only a personal blog in addition to my ZDNet open source blog. DanaBlankenhorn.Com has the subtitle The War Against Oil. In the past I have used it to write about political history, e-commerce, personal matters, some ideas related to open source, and The World of Always On, which is the idea of using sensors, motes and RFID to turn WiFi links into platforms for applications which live in the air. My IRA account at Schwab holds a few tech shares, most notably some Intel and Applied Materials, but there are no open source companies in it. I don’t even own any CBS stock.

Biography

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist since 1978, and has covered technology since 1982. He launched the Interactive Age Daily, the first daily coverage of the Internet to launch with a magazine, in September 1994.

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That's already illegal
DanaBlankenhorn 4th May 2010
A law prohibiting discrimination based on genetic
data, dubbed GINA, http://www.genome.gov/10002328,
was passed during the Bush Administration and
covers your concerns.
0 Votes
+ -
The coming mass market for genetic sequencing
Loverock Davidson 30th Apr 2010
I'm still on the fence about this genetic sequencing. On the one hand its going to be good to figure out the likeliness of developing a disease and trying to prevent it/possibly cure it, on the other hand this is going to give the pharmaceutical companies new ammunition and a higher profit margin. That said I'd probably do it just for the mere heck of it to find out whats in my genes and apparently now they can find out about your ancestors too. The latter part is what interests me.

Side note: 23andme.com had the complete kit going for $99 on April 23rd for DNA day. I should have done it but was trying to find out more about the company and data.
0 Votes
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I don't think we can be on the fence
DanaBlankenhorn 30th Apr 2010
I mean, it's not like we're going to decide among
ourselves whether this becomes a mass market. It's
Moore's Law in action, as your example of the
23andme sale shows.

We need to consider, all of us, what it means.
0 Votes
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Fair enough
Loverock Davidson 30th Apr 2010
Its going to happen one way or the other even if I say I don't want it to. In that case, lets make the most of it.
0 Votes
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Consumer laws and advertising standards!
peter_erskine@... 30th Apr 2010
These kits won't give you your full genome. Nor will they tell you whether there are defects in your mitochondrial DNA. Nor with they offer an explanation of what the DNA "in between the recognised genes" is doing (much of our DNA isn't in "genes"). And, in any event, geneticists as yet understand only a little of our protein biochemistry.
I'd say that Advertising Standards bodies are going to have to come down very hard on these kit sellers the moment they make untrue or misleading product claims! Loverock, don't waste your money yet. Give it another 10 years.
0 Votes
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Gattaca
Takalok 1st May 2010
Great movie - plays this scenario out beautifully. Highly recommend it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca
The primary problem I see is the fact that insurance
companies will want this data so they can selectively
improve their risks (more profits) by eliminating anyone
with a "nasty" in their genetic makeup. Not good
information to have until it's illegal for them to consider
that data at any time.

On the other side of the coin, a mass of new genetic data
can be useful when investigating diseases. Scientists
would love the additional data.

As for me, I'm 65 and believe it's probably too late to look
for benefits. Doesn't matter if prostate cancer shows up as
that went years ago. My wife is already saying I'm senile
(especially when it comes to remembering honey-do's) and
I already have to watch what I eat and how little I exercise.

I know enough, already.
0 Votes
+ -
That's already illegal
DanaBlankenhorn 4th May 2010
A law prohibiting discrimination based on genetic
data, dubbed GINA, http://www.genome.gov/10002328,
was passed during the Bush Administration and
covers your concerns.

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