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The "Big Five" IT trends of the next half decade: Mobile, social, cloud, consumerization, and big data

By | October 2, 2011, 5:34pm PDT

Summary: In today’s ever more technology-centric world, the stodgy IT department isn’t considered the home of innovation and business leadership. Yet that might have to change as some of the biggest advances in the history of technology make their way into the front lines of service delivery. Here’s an exploration of the top five IT trends in the next half decade, including some of the latest industry data, and what the major opportunities and challenges are.

“Much or most of these topics are in back burner mode in many companies just now seeing the glimmerings of recovery from the downturn. Much has been written lately about the speed at which technology is reshaping the business landscape today. Except that’s not quite phrasing it correctly. It’s more like it’s leaving the traditional business world behind. There are a number of root causes: The blistering pace of external innovation, the divergent path the consumer world has taken from enterprise IT, and the throughput limitations of top-down adoption.

As a result, there’s a rapidly expanding gap between what the technology world is executing on and what the enterprise can deliver. Many now think this gap may actually become untenable, and they may be right. Yet recent large surveys of CIOs continues to show an almost exclusively evolutionary and internal focus. Many feel that a technology emphasis is wrong right now, and they’re certainly right, if it’s not integrated with top priority business objectives. However, these days it’s technology advancements and new digital markets that are often the key to an organization’s future.

At the end of the day, businesses must be able to effectively serve the markets they cater to, and doing so means using the same channels and techniques as their trading partners and customers. Organizations must adapt to the evolving marketplace to succeed. Fortunately, I do believe there are approaches that can yet be adopted to address this increasingly significant challenge.

A tectonic technology shift

One only need look at what’s on the mind of CIOs these days (60% believe they should be directly driving growth and productivity) versus what they’re well known for delivering on. Or perhaps more problematically, what their IT organizations are able to deliver on. Never in my two decades of experience in the IT world have I seen such a disparity between where the world is heading as a whole and the technology approach that many companies are using to run their businesses.

The issues are legion: There are at least five major “generational scale” changes to the computing landscape happening at about the same time: Delivery platforms are shifting (mobility, cloud, social), communication and collaboration channels are being reinvented (Web, mobile, social), the consumer world of technology is driving innovation, and data is opening up and exploding out of the proliferating apps, devices, and sensors that organizations are deploying or are connecting to (but alas, are often not engaging with.) And as you might expect, much or most of these topics are in back burner mode in many companies just now seeing the glimmerings of recovery from the downturn.

The Big Shifts in Information Technology - Cloud, Social, Mobile, Consumerization, Big Data

Moreover, workers are now demanding many of these innovations and expecting their organizations to provide something close in capability to what they can get nearly for free (or actually for free) on their own devices and networks. Managers and executives, albeit mostly on the business side, are typically pushing for 1) service delivery on next-generation mobile devices like the iPad, 2) much easier to use IT solutions, and 3) access to better, more collaborative and useful intranet capabilities.

“Easy”, highly mobile, and “social” are the mantras of this new generation of IT. So to is the rapid (read: instant) acquisition and delivery of business solutions. There is a growing realization amongst workers and management that technology, though increasingly complex in itself, can be wielded far more rapidly and efficiently than their currently parochial capabilities are providing.

But this is not a blame game. IT is not necessarily at fault, or at least only indirectly. Instead, it seems to be the entire structure and process through which organizations absorb and metabolize technology. It’s centralized. It’s controlled. It’s top-down. There are exceptions, but in most organizations, technology decisions are made at high levels and then pushed across the organization. This transmission process is slow and unpredictable. It’s also often not supported on the ground where reality reaches the business.

Unfortunately, the slow-pace of IT adoption, hindered by traditional project management practices, endless customization processes, IT backlogs, security concerns, and a dozen other drags on delivery performance, is only part of the problem. The fact that the technology world is largely no longer driven by the enterprise world (as it used to be for decades) is another major reason that technology and business is having a harder time these days aligning.

A few examples will suffice: The endless and seemingly real-time flow of useful and highly innovative new mobile and Web apps for managing travel, money, news, communication, productivity, and countless other key functions is only an inadequate trickle in the enterprise today. The ability to quickly connect, communicate, and collaborate via social conversations, photos, audio, video, and more with anyone in the world is much more limited currently in most businesses. Finding and acquiring new software is just the click of a button in an app store in the consumer world, but an arduous, manual, and failure prone process in most organizations now. User experiences are changing: The aging and slow-to-evolve graphical user interface is being uprooted by touch based interfaces in new consumer apps that work much better in many physical situations. In contrast, the same overhaul is happening an order of magnitude more slowly for business apps.

Where does technology and IT go from here?

If we project these trends forward, what will the outcome be? Is there going to be a final fork in the road for consumer and enterprise technology, with each side looking at each other through a diverging pair of windows, with minimal crossover between the two? Or will the two worlds continue to blur together, as technology cross-pollinates from the growing wall of innovation coming from the Web and consumer technology world? Given the virality and pervasiveness of consumer technology, the latter is by far the most likely scenario.

So what are the key IT trends of the next half decade? How will organizations adapt to them? In a conversation I had recently with the Editor-in-Chief of CIO Magazine, Maryfran Johnson, we discussed what I dubbed the “Big Five”, the biggest technology influences of the next half decade. This includes next-gen mobility, social media (or more specifically social business), cloud computing, consumerization, and big data. We agreed that these five — of all current tech trends — are at top of the list for what most organizations need to be planning for in their current strategies and roadmaps as they update and modernize, as well as (hopefully) out-innovate their competitors.

Below I will explore the approaches that might break the logjam that’s preventing much of the business world from becoming as current with the technology advances as they should. But first lets take a look at each of these technology trends with an eye towards the most up-to-date statement of the advantages they can provide. I’ll also provide a key new insight on overcoming the challenges of adopting them more effectively and successfully.

1) Next-Gen Mobile - Smart Devices and Tablets

It’s obvious to the casual observer these days that smart mobile devices based on iOS, Android, and even Blackberry OS/QNX are seeing widespread use. But comparing projected worldwide sales of tablets and PCs tells an even more dramatic story. Using the latest sales projections from Gartner on tablets and current PC shipment estimates from IDC, we can see that by 2015 the tablet market will be 479 million units and the PC market will be only just ahead at 535 million units. This means tablets alone are going to have effective parity with PCs in just 3 years. Other data I’ve seen tells a similar story.

So, while it’s still early days yet, it’s also quite clear that enterprises must start treating tablets as equal citizens in their IT strategies. So why won’t they? For several reasons:

Challenges to smart device adoption

  • Smart devices have a poor enterprise ecosystem today. Enterprise software vendors and IT departments have organized around older platforms such as Windows and LAMP. Their infrastructure, skills, and relationships are largely built around an older generation of IT. In the meantime, iOS and Android have a lot to learn and to build up to begin to match this world, though they are starting to make progress in this regard.
  • Many of the inherent advantages of smart mobile are anathema to structured IT. From app stores to HTML 5, the large and easy to access application universes of next-gen mobile immediately triggers a security lockdown response (right reaction, wrong response) from IT. I’ve even seen IT departments desire to remove app stores from smart mobile devices entirely. The solution is probably policy-based screening of apps, but that’s a solution a ways away.

Key adoption insight

A likely approach that will scale is to do as JP Rangaswami advocates, and “design for loss of control.” This doesn’t mean letting go of essential control such as robust security enforcement, but it does mean providing a framework for users to bring their own mobile devices to work in a safe manner, including use of apps with business data under certain prescribed conditions. This unleashes choice and innovation and vitally, splits the work of adoption and rollout with users that want to use their favorite mobile devices/app to solve a business problem.

2) Social Media - Social Business and Enterprise 2.0

While mobile phones technically have a broader reach than any communications device, social media has already surpassed that workhorse of the modern enterprise, e-mail. Increasingly, the world is using social networks and other social media-based services to stay in touch, communicate, and collaborate. Now key aspects of the CRM process are being overhauled to reflect a fundamentally social world and expecting to see stellar growth in the next year. As Salesforce’s Marc Benioff was very clear in his dramatic keynote at Dreamforce last month, leading organizations are becoming social enterprises.

There now seems to be hard data to confirm this view: McKinsey and Company is reporting that the revenue growth of social businesses is 24% higher than less social firms and data from Frost and Sullivan backs that up across various KPIs. The message is that companies are going to — and have every reason to — be using social media as a primary channel in the very near future, if they aren’t already. It’s time to get strategic.

Challenges to social media adoption

  • Social media is not an IT competency. Simply put, the human interaction portion of social computing is generally not IT’s strong suit. It tends to be treated as just another application to roll out instead of being integrated meaningfully into the flow of work.
  • The more significant value propositions of social requires business transformation. Maintaining a Facebook page and Twitter account is relatively straightforward and necessary, but it usually won’t generate significant growth, revenue, or profits by itself either. The more profound and higher order aspects of social media including peer production of product development, customer care, and marketing require deeper rethinking of business processes.

Key adoption insight

There are a growing number of established social media adoption strategies, but probably one of the most effective is to engage by example. Both leadership inside the company as well as top representatives to the outside world must engage in social channels to show how they’d like change to happen.

Related: Reconciling the enterprise IT portfolio with social media

3) Cloud computing

Of all the technology trends on this list, cloud computing is one of the more interesting and in my opinion, now least controversial. While there are far more reasons to adopt cloud technologies than just cost reduction, according to Mike Vizard perceptions of performance issues and lack of visibility into the stack remain one of the top issues for large enterprises. Yet, among the large enterprise CTO and CIOs I speak with, cloud computing is being adopted steadily for non-mission critical applications and some are now even beginning to downsize their data centers. Business agility, vendor choice, and access to next-generation architectures are all benefits of employing the latest cloud computing architectures, which are often radically advanced compared to their traditional enterprise brethren.

Challenges to cloud computing adoption

  • Concerns of control. When jobs depend on IT being up and working, then you can be sure there will be reluctance to adopt the cloud. There’s also little question that not going the cloud route will mean short-term job security, but at what ultimate cost? Never mind that many CIOs and heads of IT just feel they can’t yet trust the cloud, despite many cloud providers being more reliable than internal infrastructure (Google recently reported four nines across its Gmail and Google Apps services.)
  • Reliability and performance perceptions. Widespread outages by Amazon and Microsoft in the past has set back cloud adoption a minor amount, yet uptime is still extraordinary good by most enterprise standards. More of an issue is moving the enormous datasets that enterprises now posses into and out of the cloud quickly enough. Backhaul and other methods will need to improve substantially to address this satisfactorily for large enterprises.

Key adoption insight

Until cloud computing workloads can be seamlessly transferred back and forth between a company’s private cloud and public/hybrid cloud, adoption will be held back and favored largely for greenfield development. Technologies are now emerging to make this possible, however, and for now, companies should invest in cloud standards (to the extent they exist today) to build private clouds in order to be in position to start selectively transferring services out on a trial basis (and being able to bring them back in safely as needed.)

Related: Fixing IT in the cloud computing era.

4) Consumerization of IT

I’ve previously made the point that the source of innovation for technology is coming largely from the consumer world, which also sets the pace. Yet that’s just one aspect of consumerization, which some like myself and Ray Wang are calling “CoIT” for short. Consumerization also very much has to do with its usage model, which eschews enterprise complexity for extreme usability and radically low barriers to participation. Enterprises which don’t steadily consumerize their application portfolios are in for even lower levels of adoption and usage than they already have as workers continue to route around them for easier and more productive solutions. Another decentralized and scalable solution is, as with next-gen mobile, to help workers help themselves to third party apps that are deemed safe and secure.

Challenges to applying consumerization to IT

  • Vendors provide the UX. Usability and low barriers to participation won’t exist until 3rd party vendors, which provide a large percentage of IT (often on lengthy upgrade intervals), get the message and overhaul their apps.
  • Consumer technology often isn’t enterprise ready. At one point, neither was open source, but eventually an industry that provided value-added services emerged. The same pattern is likely to happen with popular consumer apps.

Key adoption insight

Consumerization seems especially pernicious to IT departments because it happens all the time, without their involvement. Stats vary on “shadow IT”, which is in the lower double digits, but much of it is for consumer apps. IT departments can begin programs in partnership with other large companies (to distribute the work) to certify SaaS, cloud, and mobile apps and train workers on data safety, backup, and integrity for example. Longer term, companies will imbue their IT service design, solution acquisition, and delivery with user experience and design approaches and fresh ideas from the consumer world. This will drive more worker productivity, less user support, and higher innovation in IT solutions.

5) Big data

Businesses are drowning in data more than ever before, yet have surprisingly little access to it. In turn, business cycles are growing shorter and shorter, making it necessary to “see” the stream of new and existing business data and process it quickly enough to make critical decisions. The term “big data” was coined to describe new technologies and techniques that can handle an order of magnitude or two more data than enterprises are today, something existing RDBMS technology can’t do it in a scalable manner or cost-effectively.

Big data offers the promise of better ROI on valuable enterprise datasets while being able to tackle entirely new business problems that were previously impossible to solve with existing techniques. While most companies are still addressing their big data needs with data warehousing, according to Loraine Lawson, one need only scan the impressive McKinsey report on Big Data to see the major opportunities it offers on the business side.

Related: The enterprise opportunity of Big Data: Closing the “clue gap”

Challenges to adopting big data

  • Big data requires many new skills. There are a host of advanced technologies and new platforms to learn to be effective with big data, and the IT departments I’ve spoken with are concerned about the skills they must acquire or foster internally to take advantage of them.
  • Meaningful use of big data requires considerable cross-functional buy-in. Big data requires tapping into silos, warehouses, and external systems using new techniques. SOA has similar challenges because it had to coordinate and align so many parts of the business. While some big data will be single function, many of the more intriguing possibilities requires a lot of cooperation across the business and with external vendors, not at easy task.

Key adoption insight

Big data requires a mindset change as much as a technology update. This means making open data a priority for the enterprise as well as an operational velocity that hasn’t been a priority before. Big data enables solving new business problems in windows that weren’t possible before. It also means infrastructure, ops, and development must be part of the same team and used to working together. This means organizational refinements must be made to tap into the greater potential.

How IT can evolve to meet the Big Five

I’m beginning to see that in order to stay relevant, and not become the PBX department, IT departments must be prepared to take a “Big Leap” to meet the Big Five. What this Big Leap looks like will be different for every organization, and their are multiple directions that can be taken. As I wrote on Twitter recently, the deeply transformational nature of most of the Big Five means IT must either start leading the business models and evolution of the organization, or become a commoditized utility while the business figures out the moves on their own. This almost certainly means open supply chains and enabling strategic IT abundance via designed loss of control coupled with emergent and agile approaches to IT. Now that I’ve explored the Big Five, I’ll take a look at the Big Leap soon and see what the options are for IT — such as “The Next Generation Enterprise Platform” that Michael Fauscette recently posited — to not only remain relevant in the 21st century, but become the driver of business.

Can IT become the driver of business or will the function be absorbed by lines of business as their leaders become digital natives?

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Dion Hinchcliffe is an expert in information technology, business strategy, and next-generation enterprises.

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Biography

Dion Hinchcliffe

Dion Hinchcliffe is an expert in information technology, business strategy, and next-generation enterprises. He is currently Executive Vice President of Strategy at Dachis Group. A veteran of enterprise IT, Dion has been working for two decades with leading-edge methods to bridge the widening gap between business and technology. He has extensive practical experience with enterprise technologies and he consults, advises, and writes prolifically on social business, IT, and enterprise architecture. Dion still works in the trenches with clients in the Fortune 1000, government, and Internet startup community. He is also a sought-after keynote speaker and is co-author of several books on 2.0 subjects including Web 2.0 Architectures from O'Reilly as well as the upcoming Social Business By Design (due Spring, 2012.)
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RE: The
benm024 15th Feb
These trends are very much in line with Gartners top 10 trends for IT in 2012 which I discuss here: www.allgreektoyou.com. You did a great analysis here. The social media train has left the station and is barreling towards the enterprise. IT needs to be ready.
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All about budget
nicopretorius 2nd Oct
Great article, the only thing missing is that you forgot to mention that these startups pushing new technologies has budgets that far exceeds the budget of any corporate IT department thanks to their investors. If business want IT departments to stay relevant and provide all the cool stuff that you've mentioned, they will have to relook the budget to make this possible.

From the 5 techs you mentioned, I think cloud will have the biggest impact on business.
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Contributr
It depends on the company
dionhinchcliffe 3rd Oct
@nicopretorius I would note that large global companies have yearly IT budgets in hundreds of millions, so it can vary. I'd also say that cloud will indeed be very impactful, but so will the others. It really depends on the specific organization. Thanks greatly for commenting.
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The CIO mindset gap!
ssuryava@... Updated - 3rd Oct
Very well written article!

Enterprise IT needs to change radically and integrate the social media and related technologies into its roadmap. I think the major gap here is in the mindset. The social engineering and business mindset that is needed to understand the fundamental shift in how social media technology will be used in the future and how to use these technoogies within the enterprise - for business- will be the biggest challenge. I wonder how many CIOs and IT departments are upto this challenge.

More likely, in next 5 years we will see young enterprises and startups grow into large firms with radically different IT footprint and that's when a new generation of IT leaders will emerge who will have grown with the new perspective and can drive the new enterprise IT.

It's a pleasure to read such engaging articles. I had tweeted few days back about this same challenge.

Cheers,
-Sandeep

Sandeep Suryavanshi
Twitter: @ssuryava
Linkedin: http://in.linkedin.com/in/ssuryava
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Correction
tobypowell 3rd Oct
Very interesting article. There's an error in this paragraph though:

"Using the latest sales projections from Gartner on tablets and current PC shipment estimates from IDC, we can see that by 2015 the tablet market will be 479 million units and the PC market will be only just ahead at 535 million units."

The Gartner figures in the linked article are badly formatted, but the correct tablet sales projection for 2015 is 326 million, not 479. Even so, that's not far off current PC sales, so still represents staggering growth.

(Also, since one set of projections is for sales and the other for shipments, comparing like for like would likely bring the two numbers a little closer again.)
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Contributr
Thanks
dionhinchcliffe 3rd Oct
@tobypowell Will investigate and make sure they're right. Thanks for the catch!
@dionhinchcliffe
http://xkcd.com/605/

Joey
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Hand Held Devices are emerging in this decade, these may influence the learning environment.
therefore there is a need that we should plan our teaching learning technologies accordingly. it is not time to address mobile and social networks separately. these two and other also like educational games and simulations will be available at your palm , mean hand held device.
We may plan for five years span instead of having planning for decades of 2050 vision.
and its all due to rapid changes in the technology.
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Entrepreneurs, Get Ready!!!
omar.bellamine 3rd Oct
These big shifts creates new market niches for new entrepreneurs who can exploit/use their non-classical oriented mindset to serve the enterprise world.

Obviously the cloud is the biggest thing out there, especially with the homomorphic encryption breakthrough, let see ...
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Watch out CIO and Enterprise organizations
Hirendra Sinhji Rana 3rd Oct
I feel, enterprise-based IT sets would cease to exist in near future. Users would adopt the technology based on their ROI from third party vendors / service providers. Hence, watch out for Social Media, Big data and smart devices !
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There is lot of talk about the cloud computing. But will large ERP Software move in cloud or look for in memory processing. With hardware becoming cheaper and bigger by the day it is touch to convince the big ERP players to move into cloud computing.

www.sf86jobs.com
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Contributr
Labor is the biggest IT cost however
dionhinchcliffe 3rd Oct
@sivaselva So economies of scale are key to cloud economies. A cloud provider will have significant cheaper costs because of higher scale. The real issue, as I indicated, was performance. Limitations such as physics (the speed of light) and poor backhaul in large countries such as the U.S. will prevent a lot of applications from being cloud-enabled for the time being.

Best,

Dion Hinchcliffe
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RE: The
snapcrowd 3rd Oct
@dionhinchcliffe Please checkout out cloud platform that we have recently launched to help manage photos, videos, music and docs. The platform supports a single user and all the way up to 100+ users on the same account. We are planning our mobile apps to be released in the near future and hope to attract developers that will release apps for the users home screen. Just go to SnapCrowd.com to sign up for the 10gb freemium account to try it out.
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@dionhinchcliffe Labor the biggest IT cost? Maybe with peanut selling company X, with 10 stores. Go bigger, and labor cost is _maybe_ 10 to 15% of the budget. Sometimes even less.

Also, large global companies may have IT budgets going into hundreds of millions, but if you compare the scope, that budget is maybe 5% of their annual planning, and maybe even barely enough to cover the existing costs.

There's a clear downshift in the way businesses across the world are looking at IT services. Perot knew that, and he got out early. Go ask Dell how good is Perot Systems doing today.

While I liked your article, I can't but disagree with you when it comes to labor being the biggest IT cost. It's the other way around, all over. Companies caught in the miracle of centralizing apps/services, going for global services from global suppliers, have discovered how quality goes down, and costs go up.

Global =! cheaper.
It seems to me at this time that many CIOs and senior IT executives have not quite caught on to just how big a disintermediation play Cloud really is. If your organization hasn't got an investment-based, a service-based budget that demonstrates value relative to outsourcers, then you may be in trouble.

IT can move to act as stewards of the IT investment. It starts with an understanding of what services you provide, and their cost.
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Contributr
@CaryKing A lot of them know about this but are unwilling to take the risks in moving forward knowing that the rate of failure in IT is always high for major transformations. And some senior IT execs are from a different era and genuinely dismiss the advances as unimportant. Either way, orgs will move forward, it's just how fast and whether it's too little, too late.
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IT has a choice of compromising their business's competitive edge through resistance, or making a priority of getting on top of technologies that will provide an advantage. The fact that employees are using consumer applications that could be beneficial to Enterprise is a great advantage: an employee-driven move to technology adoption has a much higher chance of success. High-quality consumer apps are designed to scale magnitudes higher than needed for most enterprises, and one can look to e-commerce applications for security models that translate well to Enterprise. An effective approach to adoption is to partner with outside technology firms with a plan for internal training and maintenance hand-off. Every IT department needs at least one "technophile" who will assist in technology transfer and adoption.
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Great article. There is a gap and corp. IT is not helping. When a CEO or SVP comes to work and has the iPad 2 and the latest smartphone in theirs' hands and IT says, "sorry can't support it", then there is a problem. The world at large wants mobile and they are doing social, so the enterprise has to get with it. If corp IT doesn't like change, they will like irrelevance less.
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RE: The
anilmehra@... 3rd Oct
Great article that summarizes opportunities for the next generation enterprise. The pace of adoption will largely depend on maturity and associated risk/benefits especially for larger enterprises, but the can't see anything that can reverse this course.

Anil Mehra
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Great stuff
Russell Craig 3rd Oct
Super article. Especially liked the illustration chart; and references to PBX and innovation.
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Managing the New Risk
tom.held 3rd Oct
As the areas you've mentioned progress, one must be vigilant in identifying the risk to corporate and personal privacy and the protection of intellectual property. There are significant risks to the move to the cloud, the jump to embrace social media, the warehousing of data and the consumerization of IT. In one word, control.

Right now, the legal and risk issues are just under the covers and we will hear more of them as these technologies are embraced in ways which prove less than prudent. With all new technologies comes risk and the smart company will evaluate before making the jump and then harness the technology that best fits their strategic business planning.

Tom Held
Technology Risk Management
The Oakland Group
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Contributr
@tom.held Yes, I expected this comment and you're absolutely right. Yet businesses must move forward despite risk. If organizations did what their lawyers said, they would do very little indeed.

But that said: There are more tools in the risk management arsenal than ever and they must be employed with ingenuity for organizations to improve and in some cases survive in the future. Doing nothing is not an option. I'd observe that it's dangerous to cross the street, and most of us know this, so we take appropriate precautions. Enterprises moving to any of these technologies should do the same.

Great point however (and I was careful to emphasize the important of security in my post above, but noted that the response from IT is often the wrong one.)

Best,

Dion Hinchcliffe
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OTOH...
Noah A Updated - 25th Jan
@dionhinchcliffe

...pressure from enterprise IT could be a great catalyst to force social media companies and mobile app developers to get their acts together in regards to privacy, compatibility and product testing. I doubt any mobile app company, just as one example, would want to miss an opportunity to have their product used throughout a large global company because they can only make it compatible with handsets X, Y and Z.

In the end, this should (hopefully) benefit the average consumer, as well.
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Managing the Risk
tom.held 3rd Oct
As the areas you've mentioned progress, one must be vigilant in identifying the risk to corporate and personal privacy and the protection of intellectual property. There are significant risks to the move to the cloud, the jump to embrace social media, the warehousing of data and the consumerization of IT. In one word, control.

Right now, the legal and risk issues are just under the covers and we will hear more of them as these technologies are embraced in ways which prove less than prudent. With all new technologies comes risk and the smart company will evaluate before making the jump and then harness the technology that best fits their strategic business planning.

Tom Held
Technology Risk Management
The Oakland Group
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Insightful - but how will they staff it?
SandraMarieSmith 3rd Oct
This is very interesting - in addition to budget issues and the like, I see a lack of skilled talent to fill the roles to do these projects as well. Is there a sufficient workforce to manage it?

Kindest Regards,

Sandra Marie Smith
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Contributr
@SandraMarieSmith In the future, we'll all be much more involved with IT and the line between the business and the technology department will blur. In essence, we'll be distributing much more IT know-how inside the work we do ourselves on a daily basis. That will address part of the issue of staffing. But a group of data center managers I spoke to a couple of weeks ago are quite concerned about the skill gap. The usual answer may suffice: Importing workers from abroad. But in today's worker climate, the best answer is for a lot of existing workers to learn the details of the new technologies in demand, but that may not happen for a variety of reasons.

In the end, much of the complexity of consumerized tools is buried inside the easy exterior of the UX. It's the security side that's going to remain problematic for a long time, and that's going to increasingly be a hot field, especially as even security itself can be outsourced to the cloud to some extent.

Thanks for taking the time to comment!
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Biggest challenge is availability of services once hosted on a public cloud. Also data privacy law outside of Europe and America..
Availability of enterprise applications designed for cloud is also an important requirement.
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How about Cloud Security
aouhida 3rd Oct
You addressed Control and reliability as top concerns for CIOs and IT professionals when considering moving to cloud computing. How about Cloud security? Where does that fit into your 5 year outlook?

Thank you for the article. It's really good!

Best Regards
Beside the technology related five topics you describe I would like to add seamless integration and usability as major influencing factors accross all technologies. Especially consumer hardware/software/services are focussing on seamless integration and usability, with IMHO Apple as leader in this area for the consumer market. Major services like Spotify, iCloud, Delicious, Zinio, Flipboard etc. are all examples that combine attrativeness (usability), allways connected (social media) and location independend (next-gen mobile, cloud). If you offer services that incorporate these design imperatives, the user will gladly use you product. Enterprises still have some caching-up to do in this area, but are slowly getting there.
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Great post
rfsully@... 3rd Oct
What makes this post a gem is not the actual list of the "Big 5", its in the 'challenges' and 'key adoption insights'. These transitions are going to be very tough to pull off for most enterprises. I can imagine that new entrants who are starting fresh with high velocity IT practices will have good opportunities to blow past the incumbents.
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Dion,
A well written post that will get a lot of traction in IT circles. You've clearly summarized the trends that will affect all of us in IT Leadership.

It is very complementary to the "soapbox" I've been standing on - speaking and blogging about the leadership skills necessary to lead IT organizations through this change.

I've bookmarked this page and will refer people back to it often.

If interested my musings and rants are at http://TurningTechInvisible.com
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Consumerization of IT
LGTampa 4th Oct
Great article! Too many potential comments to make but I'll try to be brief.

Love the quote, "...such a disparity between where the world is heading...and the technology approach companies are using...". Couldn't agree more and the speed at which technology is changing increases that disparity. The fact that the enterprise no longer drives technology is the key factor behind that.

Enterprise IT used to drive technology since the market was larger. I'd argue it still is but development in the consumer market is so much faster that it is now driving where the enterprise MUST go. It makes life more convenient at home and we want it at work! The cloud and open source tools combined have contributed to make solution development and startup businesses easier than ever before. It's an awesome time to be in IT!

Shameless promotion: Read my cloud blog at www.cloudspring.com.
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RE: The
Noah A 25th Jan
@LGTampa

I think enterprise needs will still drive technology, just in a different way. A businesses stability/reliability/security needs still give the enterprise an opportunity to drive rapid improvement of new and existing 'consumer' technologies. As these consumer technologies are explored (and eventually embraced/integrated) by the enterprise, we'll probably see a lot of the 'kinks' get ironed out because the stricter enterprise needs will affect the way service providers and app developers deliver their products and services.
It is refreshing to see that on the list are all the stuff you see IT folk doing in their cubicles around the office. It is time for these experiments to be a part of the ecosystem of the enterprise. Anytime user adoption is less costly and the cost of supporting IT goes down, business leaders like that. Mobile, social,cloud and open data ecosystem are more reliable and secure today. I can only imagine what the future holds. IT has to be ready to lead on this one because it is us who will continue to support, troubleshoot and keep it all running for the enterprise.
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Sure it's easy for me to get insulted by lines like this: "In today???s ever more technology-centric world, the stodgy IT department isn???t considered the home of innovation and business leadership." It isn't a fair statement to make. I do not have a multi-million dollar budget. All of my initiatives fall under one premise only: "How will this rent me more apartments?" You touched on it briefly but I think you put the onus on us IT folks unfairly. These initiatives rely on a company culture which allows for this type of progress. I can only bang the gong so many times - without top down support, I have nothing.

The other piece missing is your talk about end users. These big tech initiatives are great if your end users are willing to play the game of tech advancements along with you. I can only speak for myself here and say that we do not have a tech savvy culture. My job is to find what will help improve the quality of their job, save time, but also not lose them in the process. You have to remember the end users. They aren't all geeks.
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Dead on
RAnnieB 5th Oct
Brilliant article that beautifully summarizes most concerns my large and mid-size business customers have addressed with me over the last couple of years.
I would add another trend, that is part of most the 5 trends mentioned in the article (mostly coIT), which is the acceptance of lower IT standards (security and robustness) on the business side. I have observed this to be directly linked to the age of the user. Younger users (in general) are more willing to accept lower standards in exchange for ease of use (including device agnosticity) and functionality than older users are.
Cloud computing has the added argument of cost reduction which is ''heard'' by all users which may explain a faster progression on the business side.
Again, excellent article. Keep it up.
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Nice Slam on PBX Departments!
schnauzer0310 5th Oct
You mention in you comment that PBX departments are not relevant. This is quite the contrary as Telephony has evolved into a major technology component. Telephony is growing with an immense backing behind it, as big players such as Microsoft are trying to reinvent the PBX with Microsoft Lync. It's kind of interesting considering that Skype was purchased by Microsoft for $8.5 Billion. The PBX has evolved into it's new form of Telephony today known as Unified Communications. There is even a new CompTIA CTP+ Certification! How do you think all those social media activities are going to be conducted? I think you need to add #6 to your list - Telephony Convergence!
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It's been a rough couple of years for the hotel industry because of the economy...because of that a lot of these hotels are needed to increase revenue streams from in-room entertainment, etc or decrease costs through better management and IT efficiencies. A company like http://hotelogix.com is using cloud to help these smaller hotel companies save money and to act as efficiently as some of the larger hotels that can afford the software and systems to do so. If done right, social media can also be a very cost-effective form of marketing. Where else do you see hotels or any company for that matter using these hot new technologies to save money?
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IT Security
data1360 6th Oct
With the cloud, increasing use of mobile devices, social media changing the way we interact and do business, IT security will become a critical trend. Information is the currency of the day, companies will need to give greater consideration to protecting their IT infrastructure & data.
I think there are some huge shifts in the works related to sensing, storage and computing that are going to shift our whole perspective of IT over the next 5 years. Most of the list you have are the shifts of the last 5 years -- aren't they? Or is it that not enough organizations have really internalized the meaning of these signposts along their own personal road to the future??
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RE: The
JF 7th Oct
Great article and I especially like the graphic, it is a good way to show the interconnections that are not always so obvious.
Also, yes all IT departments should "wake up", but I think there are more than two options in play here. In most organizations, I don't see IT as ready or able to "start leading the business models and evolution of the organization". In many organizations the IT department doesn't have the credibility needed to have a real seat at the table and therefore be in a position to lead the business evolution. How about just helping rather than serving as a roadblock? That would be a good start in the right direction.
Thanks for generating some ideas.
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Less Enthusiastic Feedback
michaeldmaddox@... 7th Oct
I am not sure the guidance provided here is as widely applicable in enterprises as Dion implies. Many internal systems -- one department providing aggregations of internal stats like server utilization to other departments, for example -- are still best provided using internal web service. Social media and mobile apps are all but irrelevant in cases like that. Thoughts, Dion?
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Excellent Article Dion.
mtyus3000 8th Oct
Looking forward to companies developing AppStores within their organizations, which I see you speak to in your article entitled ???Enterprise app stores arrive; IT departments nonplussed???. Would you recommend any books, articles or suggestions on how App Developers can tailor their apps to be more enterprise friendly (i.e. considerate of enterprise security models, data privacy, etc.)?
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Excellent Article Dion.
mtyus3000 8th Oct
Looking forward to companies developing AppStores within their organizations, which I see you speak to in your article entitled ???Enterprise app stores arrive; IT departments nonplussed???. Would you recommend any books, articles or suggestions on how App Developers can tailor their apps to be enterprise friendly?

Regards, Michael Tyus.
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Missing One - The Big Six
chris_p_intel 12th Oct
You are missing Enterprise Security.

Each of the 5 trends listed by author are very much alive at Intel IT and driving some exciting innovation ... but at the core of embracing and enabling these trends to deliver business value is enterprise security.

Inside our IT security organization, we have begun to shift our security model to both protect the enterprise and enable these new usage models.

Some insights and IT best practices are shared directly from inside the Intel IT security team are available here. http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/it-leadership/intel-it-it-leadership-information-security-should-protect-and-enable-paper.html

Chris Peters, IT@IntelSME
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Common challenges for the above 5
khan_sultan@... 15th Oct
Very well written & explained article. Couldn't agree more on the paradigm shifts identified, the possibilities & challenges for each of the trends.

In my opinion the #1 common theme as a challenge, across all 5 trends, will be the collaboration between departments to see the larger picture and the support required by one function from another. For example, if the CIO is convinced of cloud, it would mean business also being on the same page and not creating impediments & road blocks in the way.

That could be tough as it could involve complex organizational dynamics & politics overshadowing the apparently logical decision making processes.
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If a picture is worth a thousand words...
TaylorChristopher 2nd Jan
Excellent post and remarkable picture to emphasize the point. If a picture is normally worth a thousand words, this picture is worth a multiple of that. Thanks for the great work.
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RE: The
benm024 15th Feb
These trends are very much in line with Gartners top 10 trends for IT in 2012 which I discuss here: www.allgreektoyou.com. You did a great analysis here. The social media train has left the station and is barreling towards the enterprise. IT needs to be ready.

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