Google ChromeOS: Have people taken leave of their senses?

Google ChromeOS: Have people taken leave of their senses?

Summary: Reading the commentary from the likes of TechCrunch, Mashable, The Guardian and even our own esteemed Sam Diaz on the pre-launch (you've got another YEAR to wait) you'd think the Google ChromeOS was the closest thing to the second coming of Jesus Christ. Get a grip people.

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Reading the commentary from the likes of TechCrunch, Mashable, The Guardian and even our own esteemed Sam Diaz on the pre-launch (you've got another YEAR to wait) you'd think the Google ChromeOS was the closest thing to the second coming of Jesus Christ. Get a grip people. First up MG Siegler of TechCrunch:

This is Google dropping the mother of bombs on its chief rival, Microsoft. It even says as much in the first paragraph of its post, “However, the operating systems that browsers run on were designed in an era where there was no web.” Yeah, who do you think they mean by that?

Wow - I am over-freakin'-whelmed. Next up Bobbie Johnson at The Guardian:

Although the company was keen to keep expectations low by suggesting a focus on netbook computers, it will undoubtedly be hoping that it can make inroads against Microsoft, the software giant that has dominated the operating system market for more than a decade with Windows.

Then we have Ben Parr over on Mashable:

Clearly though, Google’s setting the stage for a major battle with Microsoft. Just as Microsoft is trying to break Google’s stranglehold on the search engine market, Google may be trying to do the same with the Windows-controlled market.

Then Sam Diaz:

The Chrome OS is a direct attack against Microsoft’s lucrative - albeit vulnerable - Windows operating system.

Do you notice the common thread? Not much by way of facts to back up the stories. Nor any rational analysis of what's going on in the market. Pure opinion with zippo to make sense of the story other than what appears to be a Wisdom of Crowds attempt to parse Googles' smartly worded announcement. But it gets worse. Michael Arrington triumphally declares:

Don’t worry about those desktop apps you think you need. Office? Meh. You’ve got Zoho and Google Apps. You won’t miss office. Chrome plus Gears plus Google Wave plus HTML 5 and web platforms like Flash and Silverlight all combine into a single wonderful computing device. The Internet Is Everything. All the OS has to do is boot the damn computer, get me to a browser as fast as possible and then stay the hell out of the way.

Oh but if the world was so simple.

Fortunately, Krishnan Subramanian at Cloud Ave lends a more level headed view:

Instead of doing their own OS, they could have rallied behind one of the Linux distros, say Damn Small Linux, and helped them get traction among the hardware vendors. This is a move by Google to deflect the high handed tactics by Microsoft in the netbook market but it appears to me like a redundant one. I feel that they should have supported one of the existing distros. However, if they had taken that route, there is no way they could have pushed the Google Chrome browser (and their services) tightly integrated with the Linux distro. In short, it is a desperate attempt by Google to stop Microsoft in the netbook game and, also, push the Google Chrome browser to the masses at a point in time when IE's market share is going downhill.

The Register's John Oates adds sensible perspective on the reality:

Netbooks, Google's initial target market, have been less successful for Linux than many open source advocates had originally hoped. A cut-down version of Microsoft's Windows XP is currently the dominant operating system for this PC form factor.

At this point you might want to go grab a cup of your favorite Java (sic) and relax before reading the rest.

Google already has its own form of Linux it uses to run its gazzilion servers so to Krishnan's point, why is it re-inventing the wheel? Would it not have been easier to build out of that? Maybe it has and we just haven't been told. That would be a smart move because then you could see how Google might put servers in the Internet cloud.

The initial target seems to be the Netbook but I don't see how anyone can realistically extrapolate that to world dominance of the entire PC market, let alone the crucially important server market. The last figures I saw say the total Notebook shipments were 5.62 million. That was in December 2008 so let's be incredibly generous and double the number for the last six months. That means some 15 million Netbooks in the market. That's pretty small potatoes when you think there are some 12 million Blackberries alone in the market. It also ignores predictions that it will be the smartphone that becomes the dominant device, at least in the markets that are growing.

Linux has not fared so well in the Netbooks market and I don't see anything here that makes me think Google ChromeOS will do any better. Where's the secret sauce here other than the Google halo effect painted over with the browser and duly hyped by the SV Google lovers? Sure, I can see why Google might make subtle statements that people wish to interpret but the reality is no-one outside the Silicon Valley tech bubble gives a damn what operating system and browser they use. Many are still mandated to use IE6 as a colleague reminded me the other day. Simply having Google wave its hand is not going to sway hard nosed enterprise buyers - even if it is free. Which neatly brings me to another point

Google has said it wants to get help from the open source community. I'll bet they do. All those drivers that Arrington dismisses with a wave of the hand WILL need to be served. If he thinks I"m wrong then a quick call to any of the major banks' CTO offices should put him straight on that one. Better still, listen to some of the discussions at CloudCamps where the problem of driver capabilities in the Internet Cloud matter a great deal.

Regardless of their fat bank account, mobilizing the OSS community the only way they can get legions of code jocks to destruction test the as yet to be seen OS. Even then and despite the proclivity among geeks for all things OS, when ChromeOS does emerge it will be a v1.0. No enterprise buyer I know will go within a country mile of committing its users' kit to something at that level of maturity. Can you imagine the chaotic disruption this would cause in IT departments used to burning images and distributing a standard desktop?

Let's not forget that despite Linux popularity on the LAMP stack enterprise still wants a throat to choke. In offering ChromeOS as open source, Google has effectively washed its hands of responsibility to maintain. Who will pick up the cudgels?

Despite Linux relative popularity, it has taken many years for the OS to develop to the point where enterprise buyers are prepared to think seriously about bringing it in house. Microsoft has proven - as John Oates says - remarkably difficult to dislodge. And however leaden footed the company might be, I don't buy that Microsoft needs to react quickly. It has time, Windows 7, a near 90% market share plus very deep coffers with which to mull the implications.

Yes - I see the need for an OS designed specifically for the Internet but would you trust Google to get it right? As I and others have said before, Google may be good at getting product out the door but it is not so great at delivering a polished product. Despite Arrington's crowing, I defy any enterprise buyer to seriously consider dumping Excel in favor of Google Docs and Spreadsheet. Even taking the beta label off the product doesn't help. If anything it serves to highlight Google's deficiencies. The spreadsheet is missing critical functionality like Pivot Table handling to which every finance person I know is addicted. In addition, I note that most of the customers Google rolls out to tell its apps story are focusing their thoughts on GMail. That was certainly the case at the recent SIIA conference I attended. That really makes Google little more than a (possible) two trick pony. As Jason Hiner correctly analyzes:

Google is emerging as one of Microsoft’s key competitors in the software business - perhaps even its biggest competitor within a few years - but Google has not mastered the “good enough” principle. Google software engineers have arguably created only two highly-profitable hit products: the ubiquitous Google.com search engine and the Web-based email client Gmail.

As an aside, Jason provides a welter of other reasons why enterprise will look askance at Google, many of which dovetail into this analysis.

And let's not forget that for all its oil tanker capability to move quickly, it is inconceivable that Microsoft will sit back, look at its market share and simply focus on Windows 7. It has shown an ability to move relatively quickly and I would not be surprised to see it provide a measured response when it considers the time is right.

There is one point among all the hubris upon which I can agree. Outside of the very large enterprise space, I don't see a lot of attention being paid to brand new on-prem applications building. Almost everything I see is being built for the Internet Cloud. However, we have yet to see massively scalable applications (other than GMail) emerge that would fit into the category of business critical apps. You can argue that you need an OS to develop against and it is feasible that ChromeOS could be a contender.But we're a very long way away from being able to make those assertions with any degree of confidence.

But then I see far more attention being paid to what Microsoft is offering than to any other OS out there. We don't for instance know whether Google has ambitions to take ChromeOS all the way where as we do know that Microsoft can offer a coherent stack for everything from the mobile device through to laptop/desktop and out to server. Windows may not be perfect but there are millions of developers happily trotting out code to work on these machines. Taken together with a difficult economic environment and the caution that brings, just which way does Google think CXO's are going to vote?

Why all the apparent criticism at Silicon Valley's current favorite poster child? The enterprise runs on Microsoft. That's Microsoft's largest franchise. It will fight tooth and nail to retain its share for which witness the speed at which it is galloping to get Sharepoint into any business that will take it. In any deal I hear about you can almost guarantee the sales rep will be saying: "And do you want Sharepoint with that?"

And now...let's all breathe.

Topics: Operating Systems, Google, Hardware, Linux, Microsoft, Mobility, Open Source, Software, Windows

Dennis Howlett

About Dennis Howlett

Dennis Howlett is a 40 year veteran in enterprise IT, working with companies large and small across many industries. He endeavors to inform buyers in a no-nonsense manner and spares no vendor that comes under his microscope.

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252 comments
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  • I seriously doubt it'l work out

    To be a successful OS, you need 3 things. Applications (remember Viscalc?) a familar OS, (IE windows LOOKING) and it has to run applacations people already has without headaches. Two of those is killing linux. KDE may be pretty close ot windows looking, but not close enough, but applications. There's the rub. Wine is a joke, and people are too mired in concrete to use anything except what ever their god MS says to use.

    Nice try, Google. But sorry - no way.

    BTW I don't use chrome either. You waited too long to bring out a linux version, and not supporting Win2k users was the final touch.

    - Kc
    kcredden2
    • 4th thing you forgot to add to the list

      You mentioned software to compete.
      The other is hardware.

      I have never seen another OS maker had such large forums and collaboration to allow developers to create software for Windows to run with about any hardware.

      OSX has been at it for awhile and even they cant get their act together to get those video cards makers to develop SLI or Crossfire for OSX.

      Unless there is a CHROME that runs in a VM mode, they really dont stand a chance, and will probably be running on windows anyway.


      Thank god, this writer understands that just because its blogged, it doesnt mean its in this reality!

      JABBER_WOLF
      • 5th - MS sales reps threaten brick-and-mortar retail outlets

        I recall Staples stocked linux netbooks at one time, returned about a month later, and they were all gone.

        I asked about it, the manager stated the usual - return rate was high & sales were low for the linux versions.

        An employee nearby overheard, and waited for the manager to leave and mentioned he was there when the MS sales rep visited and he was upset to find linux netbooks on the floor and threatened them to have them removed or else have discounts cut out for the entire retail chain.

        So now I am confused - if linux is "no threat" why does MS react this way? Was it to deliberately skew the retail / brick-and-mortar linux vs MS netbook sales numbers?

        Reminiscent of the Qualcomm / Asus EEE pc demo running Android back on 6/1 during the Computex trade show in Taipei. The next day, Asus' chairman, Jonney Shih, after sharing a news conference stage with Microsoft corporate VP, OEM Division, Steven Guggenheimer, apologized for the Android Eee PC being shown.

        Now there is an excellent business model - mafia marketing :)
        ~doolittle~
        • Well said!

          Bravo!
          914four
          • The reason that it'll do much better than expected

            is because of the vast numbers of people who want to get away from Microsoft, and this is backed by the seemingly all important big brand name.
            fr0thy2
        • cough cough bullsh*t

          LOL Bullsh*t...Good One Though. Nice Propaganda!!!You People hahaha you should work in Politics!!!
          quixel
          • You're ignorant

            You obviously have not been paying attention over the years. This
            phenomenon is well documented.
            Info-Dave
        • So one emplyee states... and this is evidenced by??

          "An employee nearby overheard, and waited for the manager to leave and mentioned he was there when the MS sales rep visited and he was upset to find linux netbooks on the floor and threatened them to have them removed or else have discounts cut out for the entire retail chain."

          Any evidence to back that up?? Did you think to ask the "employee" what they used themselves??

          And just to make a point, a sales rep is NOT the company itself. MANY sales reps are agressive, cut-throat, over-ambitious shysters who would happily "discount" their own grandmother for a profit!!
          kaninelupus
        • Let me explain, then

          "So now I am confused - if linux is "no threat" why does MS react this way?"

          I'll explain then, Linux is not a threat because Microsoft will not allow it to become one. And yes, that includes marketing tactics as well as technical stuff.

          ImaGremlin
          • An MS sales rep visiting an indvidual store?

            Sorry wouldn't happen. Sales at that level would be through a VAR. A sales guy at a store level wouldn't know the difference.
            midcapwarrior
          • Many corporations that deal with retail...

            ...employ "mystery shoppers" who go to retail stores and see how their products are displayed and sold. Often these people are not employees but contractors, although some companies like HP use their own employees.
            914four
          • support bullying?

            Look, surely a reputable company like MS doesn't support bullying tactics. If they did surely everyone would stop supporting it rather than being vehemently in it's favour?
            Tom6
          • Have you read the whitepaper:

            "Microsoft - A History of Anticompetitive Behavior and Consumer Harm"?
            It's available at: http://www.ecis.eu/documents/Finalversion_Consumerchoicepaper.pdf
            914four
        • Management threats

          The correct response of the manager should have to say "Fine, we don't need to stock your kit". In reality people have to allow themselves to be bullied like this because it's unclear how stupid the higher ups in the chain of command are likely to be
          Tom6
        • Doubt

          I doubt the veracity of your story for the following reasons:

          1: I do not believe that MS Sales reps visit individual stores in an official capacity. MS Sales reps would deal with Staples corporate buyers, not individual staples managers.

          2: A MS Sales rep's comments to an individual store manager would not have an effect on that individual store's retail stocking (that comes from Staples corporate; an individual store manager would have to swing a lot of weight to justify the losses incurred by making the one sided decision to ship any quantity of stock back.)

          More likely the employee who "overheard" the conversation was misinformed, or mis-stated the occurence.
          medezark1
    • Vishwanath

      Exactly...what about the file
      manager/printer/network drivers and the whole
      mash that comes for free just because chrome
      makes use of those provided by windows.
      Also people fail to realise the great benefits
      of Office is the huge productivity gains out of
      using those, tight integration (cut-paste)
      across applications and macros/VBA/Add-
      ins/programming support built-in. All of these
      are tough to replace overnight. chrome might
      work as a standalone browser, but to make all
      these features available is a tall order. Also
      there will always be a market that wants high
      end stuff as IPhone has shown. Not everybody
      wants an android. Look and Feel/GUI matters to
      a lot of folks... so get a grip guys.
      vishwanath.donti
      • overnight linux lol

        Chrome is hardly something thrown together overnight. It is built up of many component parts that have each been developed and upgraded over many years. I've been using many of these components for over a year and people that have been using linux for longer will have been familiar with them for many years now. Chrome does add something new and unique to the mix but even that part has been developed and tuned carefully in relation to the other components very intelligently and with the advice and support of other people that have built similar parts, sometimes with a slightly different objective. As far as cut&paste goes clearly you haven't tried a linux desktop or server as this is a basic function we've had for many years. Perhaps a linux on a phone lacks some functions but i don't see Windows offering that functionality on such devices either. I haven't seen which of the file-managers Chrome plan to use or whether they plan to use something in the web-browser window. I'm hoping to see something new here although i've enjoyed using many of the standard linux ones. Printer and network drivers lol, really? Much of the reason why computers can network at all is down to linux/unix development teams developing samba and smbclient protocols and functionality. Unix and predecessors have also been using printers since before monitors existed. I really think you should try linux
        Tom6
        • Blackberry

          I can cut & paste with my blackberry 8330 8-)
          robt2
          • OS?

            Do you know what OS your blackberry uses? Sorry, i don't know, i'm just curious :)
            Tom6
          • I believe...

            RIM OS is Java based.
            914four