Could Chrome OS revive slumping netbook numbers?

By | June 3, 2010, 9:17am PDT

Summary: Google’s new Chrome operating system will be out later this year. With XP in decline, has the netbook playing field opened up to increase success in the neglected device range?

The student market is not exactly flush with netbook users, while others agree that the entire netbook market barely took off in the first place. But with Google’s Chrome OS due for ‘hardware release’ and thus wide general availability later this year, this could turn the now device-in-decline into the next big thing.

There is almost no doubt in my mind, to the point where if I were a betting man I would place a large quantity of my savings on this, that Windows will never be overtaken until Microsoft ceases to produce newer versions of the operating system.

Though, avid users of the Android mobile operating system with hopes that it will be ported to the desktop will be disappointed, as Google’s vice-president of product management, Sundar Pichai, states that Android and Chrome are “two separate operating systems” with Android firmly in the mobile market.

The vast majority of today’s students can identify only two desktop operating systems: Windows and Mac, and Google will have one hell of a time to dent that already firm impression. Many are still unaware that Android has anything to do with Google, giving the company a difficult typecast to break through.

However two major upsides to the declining netbook figures is that, as sales continue to decline the cheaper they will become - which is already very cheap for the main benefit of day-long battery life, but also that Chrome OS is open-source and therefore free and at no additional cost to the user; a vital characteristic for often cash stripped students.

Google’s focus is on netbooks at the moment, though today’s announcement shows that Chrome OS will not be mutually exclusive to the netbook market but notebooks and fully-fledged laptops, perhaps desktops also.

But Windows XP takes up a huge portion of netbook operating systems. Microsoft will cut off buying the ageing operating system for downgrade in 2011 to make way for Windows 7’s prominence, which will no doubt overshadow the release of Chrome OS. The sooner XP is out of the picture, that is when Google can make their move and attempt to take the netbook market by storm.

Though, netbook users will know full right that Vista on a netbook is like throwing mud into a Formula 1 engine. Windows 7 makes up for Vista’s memory-hogging and bloatedness, but XP still rightfully takes precedent.

All Google has to do is now convince the student market that their Google Chrome OS is suitable and compatible with their lifestyle. Search, I can understand. Apps, which include email and collaboration access, may not be such an incentive seeing as Microsoft is snapping up more of its demographic by the minute.

I doubt whether Google can make Chrome OS a viable replacement for this albeit growing online subculture, but with Windows XP out of the way it is a level playing field for anyone wanting to take a share.

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Zack Whittaker, a criminologist who studied at the University of Kent, Canterbury, is a journalist, writer and broadcaster.

Disclosure

Zack Whittaker

I worked briefly with Microsoft UK in 2006 but no longer have any connection with the company. Regardless, I remain impartial and unbiased in my views.

I don't hold any stock or shares, investments or industrial secrets in any company, but have signed confidentiality agreements with a number of UK and U.S. organisations, whose names I am not at liberty to disclose.

I was involved with Kent Union, the University of Kent's student union, undertaking voluntary, non-salaried, elected positions between early 2009 and mid-2010.

No other company, body, government department, non-governmental organisation or third sector organisation employs me or pays me a salary in any capacity whatsoever.

As a freelance journalist, whenever expenses are given and taken by a company that is not CBS Interactive, these will be disclosed in each relevant post to ensure transparency.

I currently work with a UK law enforcement unit, but this is an entirely separate position which bears no connection to other work.

(Updated: 23rd October 2011)

Biography

Zack Whittaker

Zack Whittaker, criminologist who studied at the University of Kent, UK, is a journalist, writer and broadcaster.

After studying criminology at university, though still in his early-20's, he has already had a series unconventional work and voluntary positions. He has worked with researchers studying neurological illnesses like Tourette's syndrome (which he suffers from), has given lectures on the nature of disabilities in the public community, and occasionally ends up speaking on television and radio discussing the events of the day.

He first had academic work published at the age of 22, then still an undergraduate, and has been cited by a wide range of publications: from the Huffington Post, Business Insider, AllThingsDigital, The Atlantic Wire and CBS News.

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RE: Could Chrome OS revive slumping netbook numbers?
JACOBSONR 14th Oct
Good day to confirm this comment I would appreciate T h e b e s t o f Z D N e t d e l i v e r e d your website very nice to everyone Yes, Oracle is the only one with shared-disk architecture, but that is there advantage. It means you can add or remove nodes and the database lives on. In a shared nothing architecture, if you lose a node, you lose the system. I'm sure Oracle appreciates EMC highlighting their advantage.I also desire to signal in your RSS feeds. Thank you as soon as once again and maintain up the great operate Awesome post! Thank you very much || thanks for nice content this is really benefit to me.
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Nope.
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ChokemOS = dud
LBiege Updated - 3rd Jun 2010
The fact that hardware vendors are clearly more interested in building Android tablets than this ChokemOS netbooks says it all.

But there is a way to instantly turn the corner for this dead horse: Add a SilverLight plug-in to it, and I guarantee its potential to succeed will increase by 10 folds.
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with both Windows and Linux as options and are still showing declining sales.

It's not what running on them, it's what they are that is the factor in reference to slowing sales.
And, Chrome OS runs Arm, giving manufacturers another option to cut cost, extend battery life, and reduce heat.
that people aren't buying netbooks near the numbers they where in the past.

A great many people really don't want netbooks anymore, no matter what OS is on it.
battery life, cheaper, faster booting and faster running.
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the Nexus One, And it really isn't used all that much at all in many of the Android based phone ads I've seen beyond the requirement instilled by Google itself to be able to use the software.

Putting the Google brand on a netbook won't be much of a factor at all beyond the initial curiosity of the device/OS
all, the combination of a Linux OS, the Google brand, has allowed Android to jump ahead of iPhone in a very short time. The problem with the Nexus one was the business model of selling it online, once HTC re-introduced it as the Droid Incredible available at Verizon stores, it has been very hot.
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Maybe on these sites they do, the techies , but I checked before posting: My boss didn't know who made his Android OS, our salesguy didn't, and the only other person who has an Android based phone had no idea what Android was.

Most people just want an iPhone like device that doesn't require an AT&T contract, and some just don't want an iPhone at all.

Google's name has absolutelly no leverage in relation to sales.
very prominent, and the Google icons are all over. The Google branding is part of why they have passed iPhone.
will be cheaper, faster booting and faster running, longer batter life, less heat.
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@DonnieBoy ... you could say all those things about Ubuntu as well. No matter which OS, it's hard to justify paying $299 for a single-core netbook with 1GB of RAM, 160GB of HDD, and a 10" screen of you can get a fully functional dual-core notebook with 3GB+ of RAM, a 160GB+ HDD, and a 15" screen for $350+.
@mwagner@... unless the price is the reason you got a netbook.
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RE: Could Chrome OS revive slumping netbook numbers?
hamobu-22333136139518773481685514128812 4th Jun 2010
@mwagner@...

Agreed! Net books should be a helluva lot cheaper. Perhaps PC makers are afraid of cannibalizing their PC and Laptop sales if they were to release a cheaper net book.

I see a potential where net books cost under $100, or maybe even under $50, and where they would be as ubiquitous as pocket calculators.
Google learned that cell phones can't be sold direct, but netbooks certainly can be sold direct. You do need a big name recognition factor to see in this market, and google brings this to the table. Look for a big deal with Walmart and Target for the Christmas season...
would be better off with a partner, and maybe subsidizing them, but not selling them directly.
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Doubtful
Lester Young 3rd Jun 2010
Netbooks are stagnant because the market wants more functionality than they offer, not less.
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Cheaper? Linux is already free, Windows 15 dollars
John Zern Updated - 3rd Jun 2010
more, if that. ARm won't extend that battery life all that much more, and faster booting is meaningless if it still boots to an underperforming computer.
you do not need Windows or x86 on portable devices if the UI is done right, and you have the brand.

But, you get rid of the bloated OS, and the inefficient processor, and you can have GREAT performance, and LONGER battery life. Chrome OS Arm based devices will be screamers that sip energy.
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Chrome OS Arm based devices will be screamers that sip energy

What a BS line if I ever read it one. You're not even worth the waste of our time anymore.

I'll just wait to hear your excuses when Chrome OS doesn't make a dent in anything, netbooks included.
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Well, @DonnieBoy, ... based upon slumping demand for netbooks - even at $299, apparently people who want "cheaper, lighter, longer battery life, faster booting" are buying $199 smartphones instead - while those that want more power are spending $350 to $400 for notebooks.
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ARM on a netbook - with the substantial netbook batteries they ship with today - could well mean doubling battery life, like 20 plus hours. Proof enough: the iPad with it's ARM chip has 8 plus hours with a quite small battery in its thin frame.

If Android is going to become the defacto industry standard OS on phones and tablets - and that sure seems likely - there will be tremendous interest in putting it netbooks, which may come to be seen as simply tablets with auxiliary keyboards. It's an open source license, and even if Google wanted to stop that from happening I don't think they could.

I'm not really sure what Chrome has that will make it so attractive, especially if people are completely comfortable with Android, which actually seems much more powerful. Chrome is an awesome idea for someday, but what exactly about it makes it compellingly interesting to people? I can't think of anything.
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I am waiting for chrome OS to buy a netbook for the kids. I have 2 netbooks deployed in a school setting and the functionality is just not there even with winXP. Chrome OS and Google will give a big boost to the slumping market. As they will offer a lower cost, better performance, and longer battery life than windows based units.
with the Google brand.
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and it's not helping them sell much beyond theit advertising.

The Google Brand is a non factor to the end user in this sense.
Neither Linux or Windows propeller heads matter.
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Yes, without a doubt. If the lightweight and inexpensive netbooks were just a little faster, why would you use anything else to travel? Email, power point, word processing, fine on a netbook. If Google is smart, make Chrome OS stripped down but extraordinarily fast to match the lightweight but long lived Netbook advantages. Vista on a netbook? nah, think 98SE instead.
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I would trash Windows for any solution that runs Chrome or Firefox as a browser, Instant messaging, Open Office, and allows some minimal scripting like Perl or Python, and does not need patch Tuesday.
...a new buying spree and the reason is this.
Slumping market is really just a indicator of all markets. With world crisis and economic failure on the horizon, people are not willing to spend even the smallest amounts of money on extra things that they can live without. Granted there are other factors involved, but, if you have a grasp of "what is really going on out there" in our economy, you will see that only the "well to do" are investing in new hardware. Most of the people in this world can't just jump on a new product and spend money like there is tomorrow, they think, what about tomorrow, is there any money for living expenses, will i have a job?
1 in 10 of us here in the US is unemployed (9.9% jobless rate, http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Unemployment-rate.aspx?Symbol=USD ).

As said earlier, slumping Netbook sales are just a part of of the whole picture, world wide economic decline.
"people are not willing to spend even the smallest amounts of money on extra things that they can live without"

Those two million iPad's sold, it must all be a big lie.
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@DonnieBoy yes, it is the 2 million millionaires (which is a low number value) or people who don't have better things to do with their money but buy new toys. Apparently, the point about "most" not "all" didn't sink in much. actually out of the entire university here, i only heard of one person actually buying an iPad. Percentage wise that is about 25% of the number of millionaires in the US.
So the point of "it must all be a big lie" is invalid.
Most likely, those with "money" bought multiple units and skewed the number of people "actually" buying just "one" iPad. Even if each bought just 2 each, 1 million iPad users actually purchased originally, where as most likely many purchased 10 or 20 units and offset the number of actual one on one sales (i.e. corporations, universities, etc...).
So in actuality, it is safe to say, that 2 million iPads sold did not reflect the real number of people buying them.
It is more realistic to say that less than 10% of the iPad sales went to people earning less than 100.000 per year.
tech gadgets in large numbers. Gadgets they do not NEED.
doubt it. Everyone who wants, or needs, a netbook probably already has one. The others will not be convinced no matter what the OS is.
Apple was stupid to invest in tablets!!
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The netbook and the land of misfit toys
mwagner@... 3rd Jun 2010
The netbook faces incredible pricing pressure from fully-functional 15" dual-core Windows 7 laptops with 2GB+ of RAM and 160GB+ HDD which are available today for as little as $350. For $499, you can get a really sweet laptop with a 4+ hour battery.

Unless you can live with a 10" screen and absolutely have to be able to function away from an electrical outlet for more than 4+ hours at a time, the value of a single-core 1GB 10" netbook is marginal.

In the end, no matter what OS you are running, be it a flavor of Linux (ChromeOS, Android, Ubuntu) or of Windows (XP or Win7), a netbook provides too little power to be anything more than a thin client to the Internet.

At $299 (typical for a Linux netbook), the netbook faces even stiffer competition with smartphones. They are more portable, have longer battery life, and are not tied a wifi hotspot and cost under $200 with a two-year cellular data plan.
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What slump?
Alzie 3rd Jun 2010
"Netbook shipments to retailers from January through March are expected to grow 33.6% compared with a year ago, to 4.8 million units,"
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2010/tc2010041_600018.htm
Put another way, if the sales increase drops to 0% they'd still ship 20 million units. Not too shabby.
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Great. I hate Donnieboy infested talkbacks.
Cylon Centurion 3rd Jun 2010
I don't think so no. Netbooks are great, but their use is limited. As a student, I love my EEE Touch, but I also need more power, a netbook, no matter what OS, can't sustain my lifestyle.
Windows propeller heads are pretty stooooopid. Duuuuuhhh!!
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I've read your responses this entire time
Michael Alan Goff 4th Jun 2010
Netbooks suck. It isn't about the OS, it's about the fact that they use substandard parts and then charge more than it's worth. To put it in perspective: I went out and was going to buy a laptop. I really wanted one because of how portable it is.

All of the cheap laptops (~400$) were sold out. There were netbooks, though, those are great right? Less than a year later, I used this thing all the time, and now I have Jolicloud and Ubuntu on it. It should be screaming when it comes to battery life, right?

2hrs.

Oh, and the power cord broke three times, leading to me having to rig it back together because the internals are cheaply made and they actually came apart. The sound stopped working. The fan has problems. It makes a lot of noise. It freezes up.

And Google is supposed to somehow fix the problem that the hardware sucks by introducing an "arm processor".
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Netbooks suck
rag@... 3rd Jun 2010
Reading elsewhere, Chrome OS requires a solid state drive. Yeah, there's lots of those out there.

Netbooks are crap. Too slow and limited to be useful.
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NT.
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Mine sucks
Michael Alan Goff 4th Jun 2010
And runs Ubuntu and Jolicloud.
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I predicted this.
Cayble 3rd Jun 2010
Netbooks were nothing more then a catchy little fad. Those who have said that the public want more functionality are right. No DVD drive for example leaves many people scratching their head. Trust me when I say 2/3 of the people who bought a netbook had no planned purpose for it and bought one because they thought it looked like a neat idea and thought they would find things to do with it only to realize after actually owning one for a while it just wasn't so.

Enter the iPad...or as most will refer to it in about a year or two...netbook 2. Even less functionality and quite possibly the worlds most awkward form factor.
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RE: Could Chrome OS revive slumping netbook numbers?
ogoforth@... Updated - 3rd Jun 2010
I think it's more a marketing issue than an OS issue. What value does a netbook provide over an inexpensive notebook? I can buy an inexpensive notebook for about the same money as a netbook and have more real-estate. Maybe the netbook needs to be repositioned as a Palm Pilot type replacement. Micro-set of my office machine with some synchronization capability.

Netbooks are kinda cool but, do I really need it? Why are they $400?
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Unlikely.
CobraA1 3rd Jun 2010
Unlikely. The netbook market probably just reached its saturation point. Those who wanted to get them now have them, and those who didn't want to get them won't change their mind.

I'm not really all that excited about an OS where the only "applications" it has are websites.
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Not Porting Android to the NetBook
maclov1n 3rd Jun 2010
I think google introducing a new Chome OS is a mistake unless they make it so that the existing Android Apps can easily be ported to the Chrome OS which will give it an advantage to developers and potential customers as having an existing software base.
Netbooks don't work. Not enough net resources support the small screen resolution.

But small portable computers with day-long battery lives do work.

The problem is in the name.
I think Chrome OS more as MID (Mobile Internet Device) OS then Netbook OS, as netbooks were advertised as low power small screen notebooks (meaning, you should have a proper OS).
the numbers will definitely go up. i am absolutely sure. whether it will "revive" the market is another issue.
Good day to confirm this comment I would appreciate T h e b e s t o f Z D N e t d e l i v e r e d your website very nice to everyone Yes, Oracle is the only one with shared-disk architecture, but that is there advantage. It means you can add or remove nodes and the database lives on. In a shared nothing architecture, if you lose a node, you lose the system. I'm sure Oracle appreciates EMC highlighting their advantage.I also desire to signal in your RSS feeds. Thank you as soon as once again and maintain up the great operate Awesome post! Thank you very much || thanks for nice content this is really benefit to me.

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