Why Google Television will NOT make money

Summary: Another day, another Google promised targeted, measurable advertising revolution: Google TV!Google CEO Eric Schmidt has long been seeking to realize his “fantasy” of controlling the media budgets of all advertisers, across all media.

Another day, another Google promised targeted, measurable advertising revolution: Google TV!

Google CEO Eric Schmidt has long been seeking to realize his “fantasy” of controlling the media budgets of all advertisers, across all media. Unfortunately for Google’s advertising diversification dreams, however, the targeted fantasy remains off-target.

Google has a fine track record in announcing myriads of advertising tests, betas, trials…and in achieving massive media attention for its every advertising product development effort announced with Googley fanfare.

What about a track record in moving from advertising test or beta or trial, to a real honest-to-goodness marketplace ad product? Perhaps one that might even make money for Google?

Google has done numerous print advertising tests with newspapers and magazines, has made a $100 million plus acquisition of dMarc Broadcasting radio technology firm and has invested in radio ad sales infrastructure and personnel.

Google advertising diversification track record to date: Google is 0 for 3.

Google AdWords were revolutionary because Google created a new advertising market; Google introduced a new product, in a new industry, with a new value proposition. Google can not readily enter legacy advertising markets offline, however, and disrupt long standing market dynamics by simply stamping an automated by Google label on media buying plans.

Moreover, Google’s diversification into offline advertising requires it to act as a broker on third-party platforms. The super profit margins Google reaps in AdWords reflect that Google is a direct seller of advertising on its own property. Google as a reseller means no absolute control and lower margins, resulting in a much smaller Google piece of the offline advertising economic pie.

Reseller Google also is deprived of prime offline ad inventory to resell. Radio, print and television advertising properties will naturally retain their high-value advertising opportunities for direct sale to their prime in-house clients.

Traditional media advertisers enjoy the favored client treatment they now receive direct from radio stations, newspapers, television networks, such as high-quality advertising packages, financial incentives, make-goods. Why should top tier brand advertisers forgo their privileged direct relationships with offline media properties in favor of a Google middleman, an automated, hands-off Google centric one.

WHO NEEDS GOOGLE say television networks if it means splitting advertising revenues and diluting direct client relationships?

WHO NEEDS GOOGLE say television networks if it means downward pricing pressure on advertising inventory?

WHO NEEDS GOOGLE say television advertisers if it means being subjected once again to the Google black magic black box of  blind auctions, quality scores, bid up your own price, Google is in multi-billion dollar control AdWords world?

Not many. That is why Google Television will NOT make money!

PLUS: Google: The REAL Dish on EchoStar TV ad sales deal

ALSO: Google's Ten Commandments and Google CEO gets feisty over Microsoft monopoly and Does Google SEO success ’suck’?

Topic: Google

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4 comments
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  • Not a Breakout, but not "Dead" Either

    Your "Who Needs Google" scenarios point out the downsides, but the downsides
    are the same as the upsides when you look from the other side of the equation.

    Advertisers want downward pressure on TV advertising. And networks and
    affiliates would like to simplify their relationship with advertisers AND dramatically
    increase the number of potential TV advertisers.

    Advertisers want to know if their ads reach the "right" people. TV affiliates
    (networks, not as much) want to appeal ALL potential advertisers, rather than just
    mega-million budgets.

    Google TV will just become another ad-channel. There is a tremendous appeal to
    ANY advertiser to be able to actually track delivery of the advertising, which is
    something TV has thus far managed to avoid. And an incredible appeal to
    increasing the size of the "TV advertiser market" by embracing a system which can
    (potentially) reach anyone on Earth as a potential "customer."

    How long should we wait before judging whether the idea can/cannot make
    money?
    blunderdog
  • Why Google TV Ads may pay off

    There may be one metric that changes the game even if Google won't make money in the first step: user acceptance of commercials if they are more targeted than today. Google has a very deep knowledge about users interactions between contents and ads - depending on time, location, content type and a lot of other parameters. I am sure if you only optimize TV ad placements by 5 % this will make a huge difference for the advertisers. Then the game will start here like in online advertising: more trust in a certain media channel means more ad dollars being allocated to it. The second metric that will drive revenues is the long tail of advertisers. Even if the huge advertisers don't participate there will be a lot of small and medium advertisers that will jump on the Google TV train. And some of them will be very succesful - others to follow.

    If more advertisers can reach more fragmented target groups in a more efficient way it will pay off.

    There are not many companies that are able to scale this way, but I am sure that Google will dedicate a lot of resources against this project.
    thomas.wingenfeld@...
  • RE: Why Google Television will NOT make money

    That's right.
    And if Obama under the impression of the "Verizon Gate"
    should use a G1 instead, they would not just know his
    sleeping habits or how often he calls his daughters ;-)

    (well his administration will probably know how to avoid that)
    catmedia
  • RE: Why Google Television will NOT make money

    Google will not make money with television for the simple
    reason that they are hellbent on changing the model of TV
    buying without understanding the benefits of the current
    (and long-standing) model. Established agencies like
    Cheap-TV-Spots.com have been doing TV right for many
    years, and like other legit advertising agencies, they know
    how to make it pay for their advertisers. Google,
    meanwhile, offers a strange brew of all the things that
    make their online model inefficient - overlaid awkwardly
    on the TV industry. Sadly, Google doesn't care if it makes
    a profit with TV, as long as they can stop people from
    getting affordable TV ads from real TV agencies like
    CheapTVSpots.
    VeronicaT