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Microsoft: 'If we don't cannibalize our existing business, others will'

By | July 14, 2010, 11:53am PDT

Summary: “If we don’t cannibalize our existing business, others will.” That’s from a slide deck from a one of many Microsoft presentations this week at the company’s Worldwide Partner Conference, where company officials are working to get the 14,000 attendees onboard with Microsoft’s move to the cloud

“If we don’t cannibalize our existing business, others will.”

That’s from a slide deck from a one of many Microsoft presentations this week at the company’s Worldwide Partner Conference. (Specifically, It’s from a presentation by Tony Safoian, CEO of Microsoft partner SADA Systems,that was part of a Microsoft talk entitled “The Evolution of Microsoft Online Services,” that was part of from the conference, where Microsoft officials are working to get the 14,000 attendees onboard with Microsoft’s move to the cloud.)

Safoian’s slide offers a pretty realistic take on why Microsoft and its partners need to move, full steam ahead, to slowly but surely lessen their dependence on on-premises software sales.

Outside of individual sessions, however, Microsoft’s messaging from execs like Chief Operating Officer Kevin Turner, has been primarily high-level and inspirational.

“We are the undisputed leader in commercial cloud services,” Turner claimed during his July 14 morning keynote. “We are rebooting, re-pivoting, and re-transitioning the whole company to bet on cloud services.”

Turner told partners Microsoft’s revamped charter is to provide “a continuous cloud service for every person and every business.” He described that as a 20-year journey, and said it will be one where partners will be able to find new revenue opportunities.

While the cloud has been the far and away primary focus of this year’s partner show — with Turner and others telling partners they should be “leading with the cloud,” the reality is Microsoft isn’t yet giving up on its software cash cows.

Partners need to focus on selling “the triple play,” as Turner called it, of Windows 7, Office 2010 and Internet Explorer 8 and 9. He noted that 85 percent of Microsoft’s installed base is running XP or Vista. Fifty-two percent is running an old version of Internet Explorer, and 63 percent an older version of Office. Upgrade opportunities abound, he said.

Turner listed as Microsoft’s primary competitors Google, Apple, VMware, Linux and Oracle, and took his customary pot shots at all of them, as he typically does at every partner conference.

“It looks like iPhone 4 might be their Vista and I’m OK with that,” Turner quipped when dissing Apple.

He told the crowd that Microsoft is working with its partners to create an answer to the iPad, something Ballmer said earlier this week. Ballmer said there would be new Windows 7 slates coming later this year, and  noted that Microsoft is working with tens of PC partners to create new form factors running Windows. Turner said the focus is on something between a slate and a tablet that would be able to do both content consumption and creation.

On the partner front, Microsoft announced a number of new cloud-focused sales tools and promotions designed to get its partners to adopt inside their own shops Microsoft cloud services like the Business Productivity Online Suite (BPOS) and Dynamics CRM Online.

Turner told keynote attendees today that there “is an opportunity for every single partner in the cloud.” Partners can “build, tell, sell and support” the company’s cloud services offerings. He suggested that partners be the ones who advise customers on how to budget for the cloud;  which apps can and should move to cloud and which don’t; how and when to rewrite legacy apps, and more.

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Mary Jo has covered the tech industry for more than 25 years for a variety of publications and Web sites, and is a frequent guest on radio, TV and podcasts, speaking about all things Microsoft-related. She is the author of Microsoft 2.0: How Microsoft plans to stay relevant in the post-Gates era (John Wiley & Sons, 2008).

Disclosure

Mary-Jo Foley

Freelance journalist/blogger Mary Jo Foley has nothing to disclose. WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get). I do not own Microsoft stock or stock in any of its partners or competitors. I have no business ventures that are sponsored by/funded by Microsoft or any of its partners or competitors.

Biography

Mary-Jo Foley

Mary Jo Foley has covered the tech industry for 25 years for a variety of publications, including ZDNet, eWeek and Baseline. She has kept close tabs on Microsoft strategy, products and technologies for the past 10 years. In the late 1990s, she penned the award-winning "At The Evil Empire" column for ZDNet, and more recently the Microsoft Watch blog for Ziff Davis.

Got a tip? Send her an email with your rants, rumors, tips and tattles. Confidentiality guaranteed.

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dLySin 16th Apr
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That's a quote from Chief Operating Officer Kevin Turner. And he bases that on? Amazon is approaching $300 million per year (if not surpassed) with its cloud computing products. MS is making how much?

Talk is cheap...

-M
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I was curious how much MS is making...
ericesque 14th Jul 2010
@betelgeuse68
on their cloud services. The most relevant data I could find seems to be from their 2010 Q3 earnings report released in April. "Microsoft is now claiming it has 40 million paid seats of its commercial online services, which include its Business Productivity Online Suite (BPOS), Exchange Online, SharePoint Online, Communications Online, Live Meeting, partner-hosted online services, and other paid cloud services"

What that translates to in greenbacks, I can't say-- but I wouldn't speculate that it surpasses $300M.
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I take that back...
ericesque 15th Jul 2010
@ericesque
At $10 per seat, Microsoft has Amazon beat. I'd venture to guess each seat is well over $10.
@ericesque

That is $10 per MONTH per user - so at 40M users, that would be about 4.8 Billion.
@ericesque & ababiec: $10 per head is for full BPOS. There are a lot of customers who just sign-up for LiveMeeting or Exchange, but not the rest of the BPOS suite.

So the average $ per head is probably closer to $6-7 per head per month. Let's call that $75 per head per year. Multiplied by 40M heads, that's still $3Bn.

Now add all the Azure hours sold. Probably at least another $500M there too.

All in all, I think this is just the tip of the iceberg - there's a LOT more revenue to be had here as more and more customers see the wisdom of outsourcing core infrastructure like Email and file storage.
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The same advertisers that brought us Seinfeld (lets play footsie and wiggle our shorts Bill), Laptop Hunters (that got all sorts of bad press for lies (incorrect pricing and customer never actually went into an Apple store) and portraying windows as "cheep"), And Windows 7 was Macs idea (where a college kid who can't get laid and get kicked out of his dorm room (by his Mac roommate) has to watch TV in the hall because he doesn't even have a friend whom he could visit).

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@betelgeuse68

The "very vocal reseller" is absolutely right. Any sort of cloud-based solution would be unacceptable to many businesses. I work for a charity that currently uses SBS. We handle some very sensitive information and need to know we have total control over it. Putting anything in the cloud is a total non-starter for us mario oyunlari
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iPhone 4
HollywoodDog 14th Jul 2010
Is iPhone 4 really a "Vista"? I've seen a lot of negative press about the reception and the Consumer Reports thing. Anecdotally I know two people who stood in line to get it on the first day, and have no complaints.
@HollywoodDog - Vista had people that had no problems from day 1 as well. However, I would not say that the IPhone is a "Vista" just yet. It has its flaws, so did Vista.
The problem is twofold however:

1. Standards will matter more and more. Lock in will become more and more difficult, and especially if you put your stuff in the cloud. Do you want to put your data in the cloud in a format that only MS SW can read?

2. Given 1., excessive "rents" will be much harder to extract. The low cost provider may win if he can provide security as well as reliability. Can MS compete given its history and cost structure?

I am not at all convinced that MS can pull this off long term.
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@Economister Customers will have to get used to it.
@LBiege - "have to get used to it". There's the fascist spirit.

I wish I was being sarcastic...
@Economister Check this out: http://bit.ly/b47iWi

Its about the infrastructure that powers a lot of the data that will be on the phone and its wholly based on open standards.

I quote:
"We believe that you should be able to choose to take your Windows Live data with you when you travel the web. "
http://bit.ly/b3WBWm
@Economister "Standards" is a hackneyed term. Its a popular discussion point when talking about lock in. But the reason "standards" proliferate is when the lack of the network affects (inter-operation) is more costly than controlling everything yourself. We could be talking about inter-operation with respect to programming languages... or the electrical wiring to your house. Just read about AC (Alternating Current) vs. DC (Direct Current), a war being waged at the end of the 19th century:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Validus_DC_Systems#AC_vs._DC_power

To think that use of cloud provider breaks down to inter-operation (one protocol vs. another one) is foolish. The various providers are approaching the problem in completely different ways and it's up to you to make the right call. It's so early in the game that "standards" at this point are as usual being evoked by those not in the leading position, e.g., MS.

Besides, if you architect your solution right and don't buy into writing code that assumes you're running on a cloud platform (Azure comes to mind), you can easily move your systems elsewhere. Once you start writing code that assumes you're living in a particular cloud environment, you're very much locked in and you've started on the long trail to "legacy system" and lots of inflexibility. The key to avoiding lock in is asking yourself the question, "If push comes to shove can my code live anywhere else?"

-M
@Economister,
So you think if you develop custom applications on Google or Amazon they'll be easy to migrate?
@Economister - if you store your data in SQL Azure, you can choose to expose it via OData if you wish so that it can be consumed and contributed by anything that can talk XML.

If you choose to store your docs in Sharepoint online, you can access those files via anything that can talk HTML/XML.

How is this "locking" you into MS' technologies?

Don't like to use Microsoft's technologies, then go find a competitor. Google perhaps. Because we all know how safe your data and privacy is to Google, right? Right.
Microsoft hasn't changed.

It's "triple play" strategy, of Windows, Office and Internet Explorer, makes you wonder why on earth IE is in that strategy.

This strategy harks from the Netscape years, where IE's purpose was to "tweak" web standards to work on IE and not work on other browsers. Microsoft seems to still want to obstruct web standards, so that its "cloud" services work better on Windows and not so well on other platforms. Microsoft is still attempting vendor lock-in.

However, Google Docs is far more advanced than Microsoft Office Live, and Google has outsmarted Microsoft in the cloud.
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HAH!
ericesque 15th Jul 2010
@Market Analyst
The only version you've seen of Microsoft's Office Web Apps is the free version. The format compatibility alone is reason enough for most people to pick Microsoft's free offering over Google's. The interface also provides familiarity-- which has proven itself key to consumer choice.

What's more, fully featured versions of Office Web Apps are on their way, for a price-- and if we've proven anything over the last few decades, it's that people are willing to pay for Microsoft Office.

Google has outsmarted Microsoft in the cloud? Give me one example.
@ericesque
Plus, all the preaching here is about not costing money to train personnel. I don't know what that is about either, but that's the mantra. Also we hear about familiarity.
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The move to the cloud seems disempowering to me
P. Douglas Updated - 14th Jul 2010
I have a visceral distrust of the cloud that dates back to when I started using computers in college. When I was in college, all the students in my engineering class had to create FORTRAN programs on a mainframe, using a thin client. It was a horrible experience. The admins we had to deal with, acted as if they were overlords of the computer; the system was unreliable; what you could do with the system was limited, etc. Then we moved to PCs. Using the PCs in PC Labs at school was a step up. But then you had to deal with queues of students; you couldn't easily work when you wanted; and then there were the admin overlords of the printers. The school then provided financial assistance to students to buy their own PCs. Then the shackles came off, and I was a free man owning my own PC. I could do whatever I wanted, whenever I wanted on my PC, and my productivity on computers soared through the roof.

One of the things I liked about MS, was that it believed in the empowerment of individuals through the PC. It later on sold servers consistent with this principle. Now it seems to me that MS has ditched this principle, because it believes that disempowering companies through the cloud is the way of the future. (Yes, when you take power out of people's hands, you disempower them. That is one of the reasons I despise thin client computing.) I seriously believe over time, this will lead to a lot of problems. I believe services will deteriorate and innovation will begin to stagnate - which are things that happen when you hand over responsibility over to someone or an organization over a period of time. It always happens. I think cloud computing is great, but it should never undermine the principle of self-empowerment: which is to place power into people's hands, so that they can better live their lives. It is one thing for public clouds to add to the capabilities of private computer systems, but I believe it is something very different for public clouds to displace private computer systems.

I believe our transportation system points to the ideal balance of public and private systems in most industries. People tend to use public transportation systems when they don't have a choice, or the cost of using private transportation systems is prohibitive. Therefore people tend to use public transportation systems for overseas trips, or long or problematic domestic trips (e.g. driving into New York City), or when they simply cannot afford a private option. I think what MS and the on premise software industry should be doing, is trying to establish this model in the computer industry - not gut what has worked well up until now. The principle of empowerment is already on their side - which is timeless, and stretches across all human endeavors. That is why I like HP's idea of simplifying and making IT in companies easy to manage - as well as be affordable. I believe the IT industry should find creative ways to keep IT in businesses hands - rather than take it out of their hands. Does anyone seriously think that the transportation industry would make more money, be more innovative, etc. as a whole, if people ditched their private cars and opted for public transportation in their places? Is it not true that innovation in the transportation industry took off with the private ownership of motor vehicles? Why then does MS et al think that moving to public clouds in lieu of private IT infrastructure, will lead to the prosperity of the IT industry in the long term? I believe this is a huge, huge mistake!

There are so many interesting things that MS and the industry could do to help justify IT remaining local. E.g. having regular PCs contain virtualized instances of Windows that include server software, so that processing on servers (maybe supported by a second fast network) could spill over onto these PCs when needed. I believe the answer to the public cloud threat is to turn server infrastructure into appliances, do all sorts of innovation, make payments more manageable, and support these local private clouds with public services. Driving customers into public clouds in lieu of private clouds will just lead to the inefficiency of IT in the long term, and also the drying up of revenue.
The problem is Business are moving to the cloud ( "ie the canab. quote) and if they dont the desktop business will be gone with a few die hard stuck on XP. This way they get the cloud and with silverlight make the desktop the preffered client.
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A highly logical approach
Mister Spock 14th Jul 2010
to create a tablet that handles both content consumption and creation.
plain
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Not what MS thinks....!!
randall.shimizu@... 14th Jul 2010
Despite all this talk of cloud computing MS is going to find out there is a lot companies that do not trust them. These business will not adopt the Azure cloud service.
Sorry 99% of companies run MS desktops , companies trust microsoft as a business partner . Companies understand business and making money its what companies do. If you worled in IT for several lage companies you will know that , as the saying goes "no one has ever lost their job by betting on MS" .

A few people dont trust the cloud concept which MS are also happy with.
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MS needs fresh meat at the top
Michael Kelly 15th Jul 2010
Ballmer was fine as a caretaker of a business with no competition (and making sure it stayed that way) but now that the industry is moving away from PC operating systems and local applications MS needs to find its competitive edge again. I think a change at the top is needed at this point, because while MS did do good with Windows 7 to maintain its position there, it hasn't done much to grow its business beyond that. Except for the gaming industry of course, but I don't think stockholders will be satisfied with becoming a niche player.
@Michael Kelly
And you need to give it a rest. You don't like Mr. Ballmer, we get that, but you did not hire him, so you can't fire him Another note: They did not hire you either. So move on!
@Michael Kelly What Planet do you live on? The industry is NOT moving away from PC Operating systems. Honestly. Do you know that Microsoft has sold 160 Million + copies of Windows 7 since October? Windows maintains a market share of 94% on new machines being sold in 2Q 2010. Local Applications are alive and well too.. Internet Explorer, Firefox, Google Chrome... ALL LOCAL APPS. They are used to run applications built for those sandboxes which also use local apps like... Flash, Reader, Java... and still many more local more powerful apps for gaming, Office Productivity .. etc.

Most applications built to run in a web browser are not as powerful as the local native app counterparts. Seriously... Google Docs is just not even close to Office 2010 on the desktop.
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Microsoft always bends and twists their statements to appeal to the shareholders and other interests. My advice is to do your own homework and see what real people are saying, that are using Microsoft's software (or other open source software like Linux), in the real world. You will find that things aren't so rosy.
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How about cannibalizing Apple's business instead?
alephnaut Updated - 15th Jul 2010
A tablet that can be used for content consumption and creation is IMHO a bad idea. The tablet as consumption devices represents a natural specialization; trying to put the desktop, which is optimized for creation, onto the tablet form factor is misunderstanding the purpose and appeal of the tablet. Sad to hear it mentioned so far up the decision chain because that means lots of resources will be wasted pursuing it.

Just create a cheaper iPad. One that plugs into the WinPh7/XNA/Silverlight ecosystem. One designed from the ground up based on touch.

A cheaper iPad creates a market. Better dev tools and resources means less time catching up to Apple. Apple has always been a luxury provider and doesn't even want the mass market adoption ($800 bux for an iPad leaves a lot of money on the table.

Windows can come from behind, just like it did on the desktop (the Macintosh was years ahead of it for the longest time) by copying, innovating and, most importantly, doing it cheaper.
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He used the Reboot word
lkarnis@... 15th Jul 2010
Looks like they'll never shake that word. They even have to reboot in the cloud happy
I agree with the consensus above that Microsoft may have the marketshare, by default, but I don't truly believe they have their business plan together to play in the cloud space long term. What I want to see is MS bring a new category of product offerings to the table and really have some success. If I think back 10 years ago about where MS made their money, it was on the same categories as they are now: OS, Office, and Server products. What we haven't seen is any new products/categories of products that have been successful: Zune, Windows Mobile, MSN TV, etc. It's time to think outside the box and put some heavy R&D dollars towards being creative, innovative, and thinking through the business plan. That's called good smart business, in my mind.
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RE: Microsoft: 'If we don't cannibalize our existing business, others will'
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