With HP out of the PC business, which vendor becomes Microsoft's new champion?

By | August 18, 2011, 1:56pm PDT

Summary: The biggest PC vendor, HP, is getting out of the PC business. What’s this mean, if anything, about the future of Windows?

HP is — and now, was — the No. 1 Windows PC vendor. On August 18, HP announced it is selling off its PC business, dropping webOS and discontinuing the TouchPad so as to focus on enterprise software and cloud services.

What’s this mean for Windows and Microsoft?

Opinions are all over the map. Intensifying the matter is the fact that Microsoft is a year or less away from rolling out Windows 8. Traditionally, HP has been a tight partner for the Redmondians, especially given HP’s decision to hang tough with Windows-based touch PCs and tablets.

Dell, Lenovo, Acer, Asus and Toshiba are still selling PCs. (A lot of them, according to Gartner’s Q2 worlwide shipment data.) Any of these companies could and most likely will take up the Windows touch-PC and touch-tablet mantle, as could recently rumored buyer Samsung–  or which ever vendor ends up buying HP’s PC business.

I don’t see this HP’s sell-off as the PC death-knell or even an acknowledgement that 30 years after the PC’s birth, we’re now officially in the post-PC era. Instead, I’m hoping it will be an opportunity for a new, more risk-taking and innovative PC maker to swoop in as the new PC champion. I have to say I’ve never been overly enamored of HP PCs. They always seemed to be lacking a feature I wanted (or having another I didn’t). The more interesting new Windows form factors, especially in the thin-and-light category, haven’t come from HP in the past year or two.

But if and when another vendor buys HP’s PC business, they’re going to be facing the same challenging consumer PC and tablet environment that HP has endured. My ZDNet colleage Larry Dignan quoted HP CEO Leo Apotheker’s remarks on the no-win situation HP found itself facing:

“Consumers are changing the use of their PC. The tablet effect is real and sales of the TouchPad are not meeting our expectations…The velocity of change in the personal device marketplace continues to increase as the competitive landscape is growing increasingly more complex especially around the personal computing arena. There’s a clear secular movement in the consumer PC space. The impact of the economy has impacted consumer sales and the tablet effect is real and our TouchPads has not been gaining enough traction in the marketplace. For our PC business to remain the world’s largest personal computing business it needs the flexibility and agility to make decisions best for its user direction.”

Meanwhile, note to Microsoft: If you need some give-away tablets to put a first Windows 8 test build on for attendees of your Build conference — maybe you could help HP and Best Buy unload some of those TouchPads (retrofitted to run Windows 8) …

What’s your take on HP’s exit from the PC business? What’s it mean for other PC makers — and Microsoft — in your view?  And who do you think will become the new reigning Windows PC king?

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Mary Jo has covered the tech industry for more than 25 years for a variety of publications and Web sites, and is a frequent guest on radio, TV and podcasts, speaking about all things Microsoft-related. She is the author of Microsoft 2.0: How Microsoft plans to stay relevant in the post-Gates era (John Wiley & Sons, 2008).

Disclosure

Mary-Jo Foley

Freelance journalist/blogger Mary Jo Foley has nothing to disclose. WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get). I do not own Microsoft stock or stock in any of its partners or competitors. I have no business ventures that are sponsored by/funded by Microsoft or any of its partners or competitors.

Biography

Mary-Jo Foley

Mary Jo Foley has covered the tech industry for 25 years for a variety of publications, including ZDNet, eWeek and Baseline. She has kept close tabs on Microsoft strategy, products and technologies for the past 10 years. In the late 1990s, she penned the award-winning "At The Evil Empire" column for ZDNet, and more recently the Microsoft Watch blog for Ziff Davis.

Got a tip? Send her an email with your rants, rumors, tips and tattles. Confidentiality guaranteed.

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RE: With HP out of the PC business, which vendor becomes Microsoft's new champion?
makrekdw45-24353611923087901074498125825970 10th Nov
vjpjyw,good post!
It'll probably be Acer, otherwise known as: The Brand To Avoid If You Want Your PC To Last More Than Two Years.

Also, there's no question that the PC business, particularly the consumer PC business, is not only ailing, but in serious decline.

Dell also confirmed this yesterday.

PCs aren't going away, but they'll be fully shifted over to Asian companies that can operate and thrive on razor thin margins, in a no-growth commodity business.

I wouldn't be surprised if Dell likewise eventually exits the consumer PC business.
@Theseus

hmm, so growth = decline in your world...
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Not in serious decline, instead
William Farrell 18th Aug
@Theseus

not large enough to support so many vendors.

Apple is doing quite well being the only company that can sell Mac (OS X) branded hardware.

The market had a shakeout years ago, where brands like Tandy, Pacakard Bell, ect closed shop.

The remaining companies are far too large and many to support the market as it is today.

if HP/Compaq closes shop, those customers will go to Dell, Acere, Lenovo, making them healthier.
@William Farrell You do realize that Packard Bell is available to the friendly people in Europe, right? However, it's nothing more than an Acer brand, just like Gateway and EMachines.
@Theseus : Apotheker can sell HP PC unit, with no impact at all, 'cause ironically it no longer exists.

What's left it's just a bunch of "rubber stamp" engineers in Palo Alto who earn $250K by "vetting" designs from the ODMs and Intel. Another group, the ID side, just figures a way to apply fancy thermoplastics on top of the original components, created on Foxconn, Jabil or somewhere else.

With that said, he'll just layoff those crew, license the HP brand to some Asian manufacturer: Asus, Acer, Samsung, etc. and concentrate on Services like EDS and now Authonomy...
@cosuna

This. HP has not been a PC company in any real sense of the word for years.
@cosuna If it were only true ...

The reality is that HP still has a LOT of people working on PC stuff, they just don't contribute much to innovation, productivity, or the bottom line. Even after all the layoffs, they are still there, playing mindless corporate games and sucking what little profit there is from the business. Selling it off is bit like burning the house to get rid of the roaches, but it seems that is all Apotheker can figure out how to do.
@Theseus
There is a point there. Consumers are increasingly passing on Windows machines. They are either just getting an iPad or buying a Mac (Apple's sales are up year over year a significant amount).

I can see why. I picked up a cheap netbook (Aspire 1 722) to replace my Cr-48. The hardware is decent. Speedy AMD CPU, 2GB, 250GB, high rez screen. Trackpad sucks and it has a cramped keyboard.

Window 7s is the issue. I went to setup e-mail. Whoops, nothing there. The Office 2010 Starter only has ad supported versions of Word and Excel. Off to download Thunderbird. Got it setup and want my calendar. Off to find a plugin for it and got it setup.

Wanted to get a photo app. Off to download Picasa.

Spent about 2 hours downloading updates, uninstalling crapware and getting things set up.

Contrast that to my Macbook:
Mail for mail
iCal for iCal
iPhoto for photos

It all works out of the box.

Still not sure if I'm keeping this Acer though - the keyboard and trackpads are killing me.
@itguy10

And if Microsoft were to add a mail client, photo app or anything else as the default choice in the OS you'd probably be one of the first people to cry to the antitrust police!

Loser...
  • Flagged
@itguy10
Remind me again what share of the pc market Apple has?. Passing over windows machines my a$$.
Have you not heard of Windows Live. You can find all you need there my friend.
It's cheap netbook, what are you expecting it to be a MacBook?
Your nothing
but a troll, and by the way this is being typed
out on my iPad which I've had for over a year. I still think
of this as a
toy and not much more. I cannot wait to
get my hands on a windows 8 tablet and do some proper
work.
P.S. Please excuse any errors. It's my IPad's keyboard.
  • Flagged
@itguy10

You can't be serious dude. Just really really dumb.
  • Flagged
@itguy10
false statements?
Consumers are increasingly passing on Windows machines

You have said that line before, and eveytime it has proven to be false, yet you ignore the facts and continue to post it like it was true.

If people are "increasingly passing on Windows machines" then what are slaes of PC's still outpacing Mac sales by such large numbers?

How is it more Windows 7 licenses have been sold then all of Apple's OS's combined?

I must commend you on your control of your emotions: most humans would be too embarrassed to continue writing after being proven wrong as often as you have bben.

plain
  • Flagged
@itguy10 - a significant increase to a (relatively) small number is still a small number.

What's interesting is that the number of Macs Apple sold in Q2 2011 was the first significant drop-off in sales since the economy fell off a cliff. In Q2 2011, Apple sold approx 3.6M Mac machines. By comparison, in the same quarter, HP alone sold 14.9M PC machines and there were 85.2M PC devices sold across all vendors.

By that reckoning, Apple accounted for 4.2% of combined PC and Mac machines.

While Apple is doing much better than before, they're primarily doing well in phone and tablet sales. Their desktop/laptop sales are pretty small by comparison to the PC industry.

The fact is that tablet sales are eating into traditional laptop desktop and laptop sales (inc. Mac machines), filling a void where people simply want a companion device to provide them a portable primarily consumption-oriented internet/entertainment device.

Once that void starts to fill, tablet sales will flatten off and peoples' now older, power-hungry, unreliable machines will need replacing. Because that fact is that tablets are NOT laptop/desktop replacements - they're companion devices.
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Really?
Stark_Industries 18th Aug
@itguy10 I guess your comment finally proves that picking up the shopping carts at Best Buy doesn't make you an ITGuy.
  • Flagged
@Theseus
This article refers to a massive decline in PC sales in western Europe:
http://mac.blorge.com/2011/08/17/as-windows-withers-mac-soldiers-on/
Only Apple had an increase, and that was marginal.

The reductions in PC sales are quite staggering:
HP 6.1%
Dell 12.7%
ASUS 22.9%
Acer 44.6%
@Theseus
The Handsets (stupid Phones) are killing the market and unfortunately with all the stupid youth texting while driving are killing innocents as well.
@Theseus
Acer makes great PC. My last laptop was an Acer and it lasted about four years until I wanted a Windows 7 laptop with up to 8GB RAM and Intel i7 CPU and up to 3.20Ghz overclocked. If you know how to use a PC, regardless the brand, it will last you much more than a couple of years. I am an IT personnel, by the way.
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Whoever buys them.
William Farrell 18th Aug
it's not like whoever buys the PC division will sell something else instead of Windws.
@William Farrell You never know - could be webOS or Linux happy
@Imrhien
You really think so? And what did Lenovo do when they bought IBM's PC business? It's amazing how quickly people forget the lessons of history, even recent history...
If the margins are so razor thin that these PC makers can't make money, maybe it's time for Microsoft to control its own destiny and buy HP so they can control the entire process.

hmm, something to ponder.
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Could be...
cosuna 18th Aug
@rwalrond : maybe the secret buyer is Microsoft... which will keep only the license to the HP brand and outsource the production to the same ODMs HP uses today... or even use those who currently provide them with the keyboards and mice...

Ironically this might be the week when two very old makers (Motorola and HP) caved into the software moguls...
@rwalrond

I kind of like this idea. If MS bought the HP PC division and ran it as an independent subsidiary, and sold softare to them on the same terms they do the other OEMs, but controlled general policy, that could be a great thing. MS could encourage more interesting form factors, prioritize whatever they want (tablets for example) and encourage innovation, without necessarily needing the kind of margins that HP apparently does in order to be happy.
@rwalrond

Margins wouldn't be so razor thin if Micro$oft didn't take all the profit for their precious Windows license.
@RustyTheGeek RTG - Gotta disagree.

W7 OEM license fee is irrelevant because the price is basically the same for all vendors. If customers (consumers & enterprise) didn't want Windows they'd buy a cheaper Linux machine or a more expensive Mac. Clearly the vast majority want a Windows desktop or laptop. Vendor competition and a wide range of choices in the Windows ecosystem are why margins are razor thin. There are plenty of choices at all levels and challenges charging a price premium by differentiating product based on features (copied easily / quickly), performance, or quality/service at any level.

If you want OSX you've got one choice of OEM - and a limited set of desktop / laptop options at various price points. Clearly Apple is able to sell a bunch of these machines to a niche (fairly large niche and growing) but they've got significant pricing leverage up to a point. The elasticity of demand for Macs is such that Apple enjoys tremendous profit margins. Their control of the whole ecosystem (hardware, software, and services) gives them an advantage until they control too large a share of the market - than they'll be introduced to the DOJ anti-trust division.

Interesting topic for consideration - if you ran Apple and could increase your desktop/laptop marketshare (from 5% to 30%) by dropping your price (lower per unit margin / higher overall profit due to margin and ancillary content sales and accessory attach) - would you? At what point does the risk of drawing regulatory attention outweigh the appeal of increased profits?
@RustyTheGeek RTG - Gotta disagree.

W7 OEM license fee is irrelevant because the price is basically the same for all vendors. If customers (consumers & enterprise) didn't want Windows they'd buy a cheaper Linux machine or a more expensive Mac. Clearly the vast majority want a Windows desktop or laptop. Vendor competition and a wide range of choices in the Windows ecosystem are why margins are razor thin. There are plenty of choices at all levels and challenges charging a price premium by differentiating product based on features (copied easily / quickly), performance, or quality/service at any level.

If you want OSX you've got one choice of OEM - and a limited set of desktop / laptop options at various price points. Clearly Apple is able to sell a bunch of these machines to a niche (fairly large niche and growing) but they've got significant pricing leverage up to a point. The elasticity of demand for Macs is such that Apple enjoys tremendous profit margins. Their control of the whole ecosystem (hardware, software, and services) gives them an advantage until they control too large a share of the market - than they'll be introduced to the DOJ anti-trust division.

Interesting topic for consideration - if you ran Apple and could increase your desktop / laptop marketshare (from 5% to 30%) by dropping your price (lower per unit margin / higher overall profit due to volume and ancillary content sales and accessory attach) - would you? At what point does the risk of drawing regulatory attention outweigh the appeal of increased profits?
@rwalrond
MS simply cannot afford to alienate all its other OEM hardware partners by buying one of them.

If Microsoft did that, they would commit the same strategic error that Google did when they bought Motorola.
@rwalrond
MS simply cannot afford to alienate all its other OEM hardware partners by buying one of them.

If Microsoft did that, they would commit the same strategic error that Google did when they bought Motorola.
There's 14 million PC sales there - someone will pick it up and run with it. Lenovo have been improving recently and I too hope it's not Acer.
Dell is the first one to come to mind, although I have never been a fan of Dell PC's. The bad taste of turn of the century Dimension desktops still lingers in my mouth.

ASUS is another. They make some pretty slick hardware. Maybe here is their chance to breakout into mainstream use.

Toshiba.

Lenovo, could also shine here as well.

I wouldn't bet on Acer. The Wal-Mart brand of computer, which break in two months, and which give PCs a bad name.
@Cylon Centurion - Riiiight. You keep on holding onto a grudge from over 10 years ago.

FWIW, Toshiba's complete and utter f**k up with several of their laptop lines during Vista launch which even ended up with Toshiba being removed as a Microsoft internal hardware vendor is far more recent and thus surely a grudge more worth holding?

FWIW, I've used Dell PC's for 15-16 years now and apart from a short period of questionable quality circa 2000-2001, I've had nothing but awesome service from my Dell servers, workstations, desktops and laptops.

I also had an AWESOME experience with my Acer Ferrari laptop which travelled the world with me and ran every weekly internal build of Longhorn, Vista and Win7 without fault.
@Cylon Centurion
Disagree.
My recent experiences with Dell are excellent. Personally, I hope it's Dell, Lenovo or Samsung.
Ms has always spread the love around, with a new project going to a specific vendor; Samsung pushing the thin and air-like, Toshiba with three-screens-plus-cloud, Asus with re-invented tablets. This has variable success but Sony is picking up the touch-screen niche HP had, Dell can claim the HP mainstream and we'll still be waiting for a new start in PCs without the crapware bogging systems down wink
@mary.branscombe
If any OEM puts windows out without the crapware, they should get the nod. I hope Asus or Lenovo steps up for the position. Asus or Intel Mil spec boards would be beautiful.
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Baby out with the WebOS?
YukioCowboy 18th Aug
Maybe HP viewed WebOS as their way to keep some margin (not licensing Windows), so with the failure of WebOS came the failure of their plan to stay profitable in the face of Asian commodity vendors. Acer or Asus will probably buy HP's PC business.

Also, we are likely headed into Recession Round 2, which muddies the meaning of HP's failure. In a recession, the lumbering inefficient vendors are driven out -- but this has nothing to do with the prospects of Windows 8 per se.
@YukioCowboy
Yeah, another recession is pretty much in the cards now. It'll be hell on the holiday shopping season. Expect more big retailers to go out of business.

Of course, even worse still for the unemployed.

Interesting times, these are.
@YukioCowboy - You can't have recesssion round 2 till round 1 is over - which it ain't.
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An innovative PC maker?
GoPower 18th Aug
You mean one with their own OS so they can truly differentiate themselves from the rest? Too late, except for Apple. It's a race to the bottom for the rest, or a Chinese overlord with slave labor.
The "desktop" form facter is in moderate decline. The PC is as strong as ever with new form factors like tablets, ultraportables, etc.
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What about HP Server line?
GoodThings2Life 18th Aug
Mary Jo,

Any word about the HP Server lines? Are they selling that as well or will they continue to sell them as part of their cloud-services and cloud-infrastructure plans?
@GoodThings2Life

Servers have been their bread and butter for some time, and they are one of the biggest Windows Server OEM's in the market. It is also no surprise that HP is getting into the cloud/services business as well.
@omdguy
But there is also the issue of Itanium, which is causing HP some problems now and into the future.
@omdguy
And HP have also been one of the largest sellers of UNIX servers.
I wonder if this has been a plan for some time. It would explain why HP's quality has declined. Whoever buys there PC division will have to improve quality.
This statement does not make sense "The tablet effect is real and sales of the TouchPad are not meeting our expectations". Instead of saying we suck, he is blaming the PCs. What has HP done in the innovation front? Nothing. No hardware. Their software business is minuscule and this idiot CEO does not understand jack. Based on his experience and comments, he will do the following:
1. Unload all innovative businesses
2. Acquire SAP
3. Milk SAP
4. Still pay significant ISV $$ to Microsoft through SAP
5. Fail in the cloud.

The problem with HP is not PC, but the people. Fire 30% of those pharting middle managers and you can make PCs grow like hot cakes.
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How about RIM?
NameRedacted 18th Aug
It would give them an alternative the the smartphone market that they have allowed to run away from them...
@NameRedacted

I think RIM is next in line to take the long corporate dirt nap.
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Well, well, well! What a surprise, huh? Wasn't Web OS suppose to be the Windows killer? Its so embarrassing, you go into this Tablet business then you have to leave it a few months later. HP should have just waited and worked with Microsoft on Windows 8 instead of launching its TouchPad dud. I told y'all and its gonna get worse in the coming months. Expect more hardware partners to drop Android like a dud.
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They are the only ones with innovation, answers, and panache.
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RE: With HP out of the PC business, which vendor becomes Microsoft's new champion?
makrekdw45-24353611923087901074498125825970 10th Nov
vjpjyw,good post!

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