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The Mobile Gadgeteer

Matthew Miller & Joel Evans

Are the days numbered for Flash video?

By | May 3, 2010, 6:44pm PDT

Summary: Microsoft slams Flash, standardizes on H.264, but continues to support Adobe and its Flash efforts. Score one for Apple?

It’s no secret that Apple won’t be offering Flash on the iPhone or iPad anytime soon, but now it looks like Microsoft is also putting down Adobe’s offering.

In a post on the IEBlog, Dean Hachamovitch, General Manager, Internet Explorer, clearly states that the future of the web is HTML5. To that end, he also mentions that not only is Microsoft “deeply engaged” in the HTML5 process with the W3C, but that the company will support playback of H.264 video only in IE9. Currently, HTML5 doesn’t specify a particular video format, but Microsoft has standardized on H.264 because it’s an industry standard and the company believes it’s “an excellent format”.

Microsoft goes on to mention that the web today is predominantly Flash-based, and that there are some issues with Flash, around reliability, security and performance. However, the company also goes on to say that they’re basically working with Adobe to fix them. Without saying so directly, it appears that Microsoft is pretty much guaranteeing to continue to support non-video playback functions of Flash going forward.

So, what does this really mean? For one, Microsoft did recognize the issues around Flash, but at the same time pledged to support and work with Adobe to resolve them as best it can. On the video playback front though, it’s clear that Microsoft is standardizing on H.264. This is great news since it definitely means that the big guys are trying to stay in support of the standards.

As for mobile devices, like the iPhone and iPad, it’s clear that more companies are moving to support non-Flash-based video playback. We’ll have to see how long it takes for the web to really standardize on H.264 instead of Flash. My hope is that in the coming months most sites will either default to H.264 (since a lot of browsers are already supporting HTML5) or will offer up an option to view a non-Flash-based video.

Of course, the big winner here will be Apple, since the company publicly criticized Flash and Adobe and asked that Adobe focus on creating great HTML5 tools instead of “criticizing Apple for leaving the past behind”. Now other companies are coming out against Flash as a video playback tool, and in the end it looks like the industry will truly embrace not only HTML5 but video playback of H.264. Finally we’re moving towards standards that will work in both traditional PC settings and mobile.

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Topics

With more than a decade of mobile, Internet and wireless experience, Joel specializes in taking existing brands and technologies into the mobile and wireless space.

Disclosure

Joel Evans

Joel is a serial entrepreneur with his most recent business, CronkSoftware (cronksoftware.com), focusing on consulting and building games and applications for mobile devices. Joel has consulted for Microsoft’s Windows Mobile division and advises other companies on how to incorporate mobile into their existing brands and products. Joel purchases many of his devices and others are sent for review on a 30-day loaner basis and then returned to the supplier. If any devices are provided as “keeper” Joel will clearly disclose this in his reviews.

Biography

Joel Evans

With more than a decade of mobile, Internet and wireless experience, Joel specializes in taking existing brands, technologies and services into the mobile and wireless space. Joel is currently serving as the Managing Director of Cronk Software, Inc., a company he founded to offer full-service, end-to-end mobile strategy, design and development services.

Joel is the former founder and "Chief Geek" of Geek.com, a website praised by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and others as one of world's best sources of information for technology professionals and enthusiasts.

Joel also serves as a technology expert for a number of well-known publications and regularly advises corporations, analysts, journalists and bloggers on what the future of technology will bring. He brings decades of relationships with leading game publishers, online communities and publishers, along with both hardware and software product management and delivery expertise. Joel can be found online as "JoelGeek" and you can follow him on Twitter @JoelGeek.

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RE: Are the days numbered for Flash video?
FAULKNE 13th Oct
Good day to confirm this comment I would appreciate T h e b e s t o f Z D N e t d e l i v e r e d your website very nice to everyone Yes, Oracle is the only one with shared-disk architecture, but that is there advantage. It means you can add or remove nodes and the database lives on. In a shared nothing architecture, if you lose a node, you lose the system. I'm sure Oracle appreciates EMC highlighting their advantage.I also desire to signal in your RSS feeds. Thank you as soon as once again and maintain up the great operate Awesome post! Thank you very much || thanks for nice content this is really benefit to me.
0 Votes
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Amen Brother!
CowLauncher 3rd May 2010
Finally Microsoft has saddled up on the right side of the horse.
0 Votes
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A careful examination of facts on the ground doesn't support the notion that flash is going to disappear anytime soon. Any thought to the contrary is merely just wishful thinking.

The only browsers capable of playing back H.264 streamed through HTML5 are Chrome and Safari, and together they only account for a paltry 10% of the global market. That's not the kind of number that will inspire websites to move away from flash, seeing that 90% of the browser market still relies on it.

Even if IE9 were to be released today, nothing would change. Instead, the only thing that would happen is that IE market share would split 4 ways (IE6 +IE7 + IE8 + IE9) and IE9 would have to wait until the next version of Windows ships to gain any real marketshare traction. That would take years, especially since IE9 won't run on XP, which is still the main OS in use.

And let's not forget the most important thing of all - Performance. The fact is that HTML5 performance on Windows simply sucks. After Flash 10.1 is released, HTML5 video will actually be a downgrade by comparison.
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H.264 plays in any browser
Narg 4th May 2010
Hate to burst your bubble, but H.264 can play in any browser. Sure, native support for it will be in I.E. 9, but right now it plays just fine in I.E. 8 and 7.
0 Votes
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...you go Flash. I don't care what number HTML
puts next to itself, it's still HTML and it will
still be implemented differently across browsers.
Period.
0 Votes
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No it doesn't
Michael Alan Goff 5th May 2010
Mozilla has openly stated that it will not support H.264
Opera will not either.

Try using either of them on HTML5 youtube if you think differently.
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Very True
WilliamCerniuk 3rd May 2010
Video in the proprietary Adobe formatted flash container
has been steadily disappearing from the internet for a long
time. YouTube started converting over to playing H.264
(AVC) files via a flash based web player, a huge divergence
from playing a flash file full of video.

SilverLight has the capability for animation and interaction
with SilverLight encapsulated video, thus trading one
proprietary technology for another but indeed stabbing
Flash in the head.

So Flash video's days are up and if Microsoft is gunning for
the web animation market, they have to not only kill off
Flash but make HTML 5 less attractive by providing
substandard support in IE and making it look bad...
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maybe a distinction should be made...
Snark Shark 3rd May 2010
between "flash video" and "the flash player".

I'm thinking there are a decent number of legacy ".flv" format files out there sitting on a gigantic number of servers which don't necessarily have to be tossed out, as long as a different player is used to play then within someone's web browser.
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So, Apple decides that Flash is bad...
Roque Mocan 3rd May 2010
and forces EVERYBODY to have to change their web sites. A LOT of sites have countless hours and investment and tools used to create Flash and now have to change on the whims of Apple...
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No, not Apple...
betelgeuse68 3rd May 2010
Apple's leverage is the choice consumers are
making - the iPhone and iPad. Just look where
Apple's revenue comes from:

http://gizmodo.com/5521228/in-case-you-had-any-
doubts-about-where-apples-revenue-comes-from

Technical merits alone don't mean squat. When
you can back your trash talk with market share,
you've entered reality.

From what I've read it is indeed easier for some
"not so technical" people to produce various
Flash content with the tools Adobe produces. But
those same people will find themselves to be on
the antediluvian side of the equation sooner or
later -- much like web sites that would insist
their site was "IE only" and in some cases not
even give you the chance to use it. Thankfully
those sites have become few and far between.

State of the art is a state of change.

-M
0 Votes
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Yep
hill60 3rd May 2010
Have a cry Adobe-boy.

Adobe got themselves into this predicament by releasing substandard products,
that's the beauty of free enterprise, survival of the fittest, Adobe's attempt a
dominating every web accessing device on Earth with their proprietary crap is
coming to an end.

As far as all the old content goes, will it be compatible with Adobe mobile 10.1,
when they get around to releasing it?

It's all well and good to support ActionScript 2 and 3 based content on a
desktop with the resources to handle both, it's another matter on mobile
devices where by the looks of things Mobile Flash 10.1 will only support
ActionScript 3.

Websites are provided to perform a function not pander to the ego's of web
designers trying to recoup their investment in Adobe products.
0 Votes
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decided this but rather the fact that Flash is bad?

Pagan jim
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RE: Are the days numbered for Flash video?
Pete "athynz" Athens 5th May 2010
@Roque Mocan It's NOT just Apple who says that Flash is bad - Microsoft has seen the light as well. And really what is so great about a piece of software that is buggy, slow, and had a gaping vulnerability Adobe let go for over 6 months? I do not miss it on my iPhone nor on Firefox...

I have to wonder what your reaction would be IF Microsoft had been the first one to break from Flash rather than Apple...
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Microsoft saw the light years and years ago. About the time that giant flaw in Flash 7 was discovered, Microsoft set to work with their own rich content format - Silverlight. To date, Flash seems to have bug after bug, some major, while Silverlight does not. I'm thinking the web of the near future is going to be free content on HTML5 and protected content in Silverlight.
0 Votes
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50 million customers have...
arminw 5th May 2010
purchased Apple's iGadgets so far. How many for similar competitors? Software developers and advertisers need a large audience in order to make money. They will cater to the whims of Apple, because that's where the customers and eyeballs are. It's really very simple: follow the money!
0 Votes
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50 million iGadget Users
Michael Alan Goff 5th May 2010
Easily ten times that many normal computer users. Who do you think they'll care more about? Hell, a lot of those iGadget users likely have normal computers too.
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Yea, Flash will be history. Adobe has been in denial for long now and pretty much well behind the curve. They need to invest now on HTML5. Please Adobe...don't put more band-aid on Flash. HTML5 is the future.
0 Votes
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I don't think so
rhonin 4th May 2010
This evolution of internet content and format will go one of two ways:

1. Flash will slowly fade into obscurity similiar to ie6 (still being heavily used)

2. Adobe will come out with a newer version that mitigates or even eliminates most of the current concerns.

Time will tell. Either way, the decision will take a looong while.

.
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RE: Are the days numbered for Flash video?
GAGendel Updated - 4th May 2010
Personally, I couldn't care less except for the whole notion that H.264 is a viable standard. Implement a decoder, be VJ, a videotographer, or send your videos to a "funniest" show without paying MPEG-LA and you could be sued for big bucks. This is a heavily encumbered license agreement.

The big establishments like Microsoft, Apple, and the other members of MPEG-LA are free of suit threats. Everyone else is vulnerable. Apple is the winner here because they have only contributed a single patent but get all this protection.

Read the fine-print when you buy a video camera. You do not have the right to distribute your video without permission from MPEG-LA, which you only get if you are licensed.
0 Votes
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I hope Flash dies quickly
Narg 4th May 2010
Flash is a very odd duck. RIP.
0 Votes
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Absolutely...and this is not about what Apple or MS say.
Speaking as a software engineer for the past 30 years,
Flash has been a poorly-written resource hog for most of
its existence. It survived, nay flourished because it allowed
non-programmers to do some impressive things, like
games and educational software quickly and with relative
ease.

It had its day for this type of content, but the web cries for
the slimmest, most efficient methods to maximize
performance. Flash ain't it, i never was.

I am glad to see Apple and MS come together to say the
emperor has no clothes, and lets get on with HTML5
0 Votes
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Apple's real problem...
dannypilot 4th May 2010
Hasn?t anybody else figured out that Apple might just not want Flash for this simple reason :

With iPad?s touch-screen, the mouse hover interactivity is impossible. This would make all nice Flash interactive websites out on the web be malfunctionning on Apple's newest and coolest hardware, and would cause Apple hardware to seem bad quality or uncompltete. Not good for Apple's image..

I think that this is the real reason behind Apple being afraid of Flash.

Instead of denying this lack of technology in their hardware, they should figure out a way to make pointer hovering possible when holding the finger above the screen without touching it.

I believe in progress and innovation rather than inventing childish excuses and going backwards..
0 Votes
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Yeah, right.
john@... 4th May 2010
"With iPad?s touch-screen, the mouse hover interactivity is impossible."

So magical unicorns would be the only thing to let Apple move forward
rather than the "BIG STEP BACKWARD" it the iPhone and the iPad is?
0 Votes
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Oh wait a tic it's NOT.

Pagan jim
0 Votes
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New and revolutionary
Michael Alan Goff 5th May 2010
does not always mean better
0 Votes
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That's a step backwards?
ubiquitous one 4th May 2010
Flash has been around for 14 years. If anything, being rid of old technology like Flash would be a step forwards. Watch the iPad's impressive battery time be eaten away by resource hog Flash.

Nope, let it die a relatively quick death...
0 Votes
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XP with no IE9 so long live Flash
kdjkdj@... 4th May 2010
Compatibility, that is what drives Flash into the future. NO IE9 for XP. The massive installed base of XP will have to dwindle before Flash can die. Get people to change browsers? Good luck.
0 Votes
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IE 9 and Flash
Michael Alan Goff 6th May 2010
What do they have to do with each other? To my knowledge, Microsoft has NO PLANS TO DITCH FLASH.
0 Votes
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IE 9 and Flash
ubiquitous one 6th May 2010
What do they have to do with each other? To my knowledge, Microsoft has NO PLANS TO DITCH FLASH.

Well they should. Same old mediocrity.

Otherwise nothing will change
Steve Jobs talks like flash is only about games and video. I
think this is a major fudge. Flash is everywhere, and many
current and prospective iPad users find it really annoying that
flash doesn't work, even if they can view videos
http://flash4ipad.com
0 Votes
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I love how you Flash haters
frankz00 4th May 2010
are probably the first to forward the funny videos you
see on YouTube. Yeah... Flash sucks alright... except
when I'm watching YouTube...
0 Votes
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Flash haters? - lol...
ubiquitous one 4th May 2010
I've never heard that before. Unless you work for Adobe or are one of those lazy kid slackers seeking to put your latest jack_ass video on YouTube.
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RE: Are the days numbered for Flash video?
Pete "athynz" Athens 5th May 2010
Apple gets it, Microsoft gets it, Flash is buggy, slow, and not well maintained at all.
0 Votes
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You do realize
Michael Alan Goff 5th May 2010
Microsoft still knows Flash is important to the web, right?
0 Votes
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RE: Are the days numbered for Flash video?
Pete "athynz" Athens 5th May 2010
Microsoft goes on to mention that the web today is predominantly Flash-based, and that there are some issues with Flash, around reliability, security and performance.

Like I said, Microsoft gets it...
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But they're still supporting flash
Michael Alan Goff 5th May 2010
Get it?
0 Votes
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But they're still supporting flash
ubiquitous one 6th May 2010
So what.

Get it.
0 Votes
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RE: RE: Are the days numbered for Flash video?
eboyhan@... Updated - 5th May 2010
I hope so. After numerous instances of flash inside Firefox pegging my CPU (and some spelunking with process Monitor), I finally disabled the flash add-in and all my problems went away. It is ironic that the only sites that now do not display correctly are a few from Ziff Davis which use flash. I wish that Adobe would provide some mechanism for determining which web pages are using flash and what resources they are consuming -- barring that I wish that developers would use other tools.
0 Votes
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Flash Video might die
Michael Alan Goff 5th May 2010
But Flash itself will not be killed by HTML5.
0 Votes
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RE: Are the days numbered for Flash video?
bear_it999@... 5th May 2010
Any chance that all of this anit-Flash talk is being propigated by two companies that want to compete with Adobe in selling content creation software?
Microsoft = Expression/Silverlight
Apple = Final Cut/QuickTime Pro

Could it also be that Apple is still a bit mad at Adobe for briefly switching over to Windows Only versions of their software a few years ago? How did that change impact sales of Apple hardware in the short term, and the price Apple could charge for that hardware in the long run?

Seems like motivation enough for me.
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Good day to confirm this comment I would appreciate T h e b e s t o f Z D N e t d e l i v e r e d your website very nice to everyone Yes, Oracle is the only one with shared-disk architecture, but that is there advantage. It means you can add or remove nodes and the database lives on. In a shared nothing architecture, if you lose a node, you lose the system. I'm sure Oracle appreciates EMC highlighting their advantage.I also desire to signal in your RSS feeds. Thank you as soon as once again and maintain up the great operate Awesome post! Thank you very much || thanks for nice content this is really benefit to me.

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