@kenosha7777
I think most people will be quite shocked about this time next year.
I suspect they are going to find the 3 million iPad owners we see today is not actually a "ground floor" so to speak. Its going to look kind of like a foundation...and an unfortunate foundation at that.
Have you ever passed by a house that was started being built at some point, but for some reason all construction grind to a halt shortly after the foundation went in, the wall never got properly put up and the foundation sits there for years as an unfinished idea gone wrong.
I see iPads hitting about 8-10 million in sales and then a gradual dwindling off as all those with enough money to purchase something without a really important use to them will have purchased an iPad. Keep in mind here, very very few iPad purchasers bought one because they really needed what an iPad can do, the majority, by a massive margin purchased an iPad because they have more money then they need and thought an iPad looked like a neat little toy so they used some of their money on that.
Now keep in mind, unless, and I really mean unless, somebody someplace, finds a real great or important use for an iPad and spreads the word that an iPad is actually an important item to own, that actually has a real purpose and not just an overpriced electronic toy that that under achieves what other products, likely already in most peoples homes, can do.
I have heard people say "I had to get a cell phone, needed it for work and other purposes and the iPhone was the best choice for me" (I could say that myself).
I have heard people say, "I had to get an iPod as I really wanted to get a excellent mp3 player and I think the iPod is the best"( that could be my wife)
I have never, and I doubt I will ever hear anyone say "I had to get an iPad because I......"
There isnt even any good way to finish that sentence.
How about possible suggestions:
1. I really wanted a device with no USB support. I thought that would be smart.
2. I already have a netbook and I thought it would be fantastic to get one more device in my house that dosnt have a DVD drive. I just hate disk drives.
3. I just had to have a device that required I hold it upright myself continuously to read the screen. I just have to keep my hands busy. I'm not saying why.
4. I really needed a device in my life that was just to big to carry around in my pocket. But with a screen large enough that the possibility of doing damage to it is both real and frightening; I have heard what it costs to replace an iPhone screen and this iPad is bringing just the right amount of fear into me every time I think about something coming up against the screen. I love living in fear.
5. I just had to buy an iPad because I just know sooner or later someone is going to actually figure out what I can do with this thing that I couldn't do before, and when they do, I already want to be on the ground floor. I love being on the ground floor, and I can afford it.
I figure at least by time 10 million have be sold, sales will taper off pretty fast. In about a year or so, if the iPad still has no real important use, you have run out of people with $500+ to literally waste and sales will actually begin to slump.
Two to three years from now people will be asking "what went wrong with the iPad?" Remember, in the past the only people who purchased tablets were those who needed one, or at least had specific and frequent plans for its use. The vast majority of these iPad sales are not of that ilk. They are just people with extra money who thought they would "get in on the ground floor" with Apples cool new product.
Now all they have to do is figure out what to do with it.
I bought the first Sideways issue in June when it launched on the iPad and enjoyed this $3.99 iPad-only magazine. The editor then coincidentally contacted me about possibly writing articles and contributing to the magazine so I submitted a couple of articles that you can now read in the latest issue, Sideways 10.07. I thought it was an interesting approach to publishing where the magazine was created just for the large color display and connectivity of the iPad where you can view photos, follow hyperlinks, check out video content, and more while enjoying written articles. This is a monthly publication with music and game reviews scheduled for weekly updates.
