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Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

Summary: Join us today for a live debate about the Android platform. Will Android continue to enjoy growth or is stagnation in the platform's future?

James Kendrick

By for Mobile News |

Whether you like Android as a mobile platform or not, you cannot argue whether it has been successful or not. In a short time Android adoption has exploded, with millions joining the ranks of the robot army.

Our Great Debate series is focusing on Android this week, as colleague Larry Dignan and I square off on whether Android will keep growing or is it headed for stagnation in the market.

ZDNet Great Debate: Android Growth or Stagnation?

Our opening statements (and voting) are live, and we go head-to-head live at 2 PM ET today. It is rare you get to participate in a live debate, so head over to the debate and get your vote in. Leave a comment there explaining your reasoning behind your vote for either Android growth or stagnation. Let the world know what you think and why, and see what Larry and I have to say about the future of Android.

It promises to be a rousing discussion, so don't miss this opportunity to join in the conversation.

Image credit: Flickr user antwerpenR

Topics: Android, Mobile OS, Security

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38 comments
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  • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

    Growth or stagnation? Where's fragmentation?
    The one and only, Cylon Centurion
    Reply Vote

    • Oh and the fragmentation in windows too!

      @Cylon Centurion You can tell the the windows fragmentation is dooming it. Look how little market share it has! And there isn't a single PC that out-sells iMac's. We should be up in arms over this fragmentation. What will we do? We should all go iOS to avoid this problem.
      mdeans@...
      Reply Vote

      • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

        @mdeans@... How little market share? Are you smoking crack??? It's selling 10 times faster than Apple. The lead time Apple has is it's biggest vantage point. I suppose you don't want to factor in the new pad from Amazon that is running a version of Android??? Of course not. Why would you? Since it'll probably outsell the iPad by two to one!
        blueskip
        Reply Vote

      • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

        @blueskip@... It's called sarcasm.
        mdeans@...
        Reply Vote

      • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

        @mdeans@... Unless you post a link to a video feed in which you sarcastically reveal us your opinion, nobody is going to get your sarcasm.
        belli_bettens@...
        Reply Vote

      • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

        Android growth is already stagnating.

        Androids global sales growth rate dropped to 3 percent in the March 2011 quarter from 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter 2010 and 9.5 percent in the September 2010 quarter.

        CommScore reports Android growth in US smartphone marketshare (where Android growth has been strongest in the developed world to-date) has dropped to 1.9 percent July through to August.

        Android tablet marketshare has not just stagnated but is actually dropping, from 34% in Q1 to 26.8% in Q2 and is projected to plunge to 23.0% this quarter according to IDC.

        550,000 Android smartphone, tablet and other device activations per day sounds great until you realise Apple averaged 622,000 iOS devices sold per day in the 45 days up to October 4th this year - and that was with the year-old iPhone 4.
        marthill
        Reply Vote

      • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

        @belli_bettens@... Actually I thought his sarcasm was glaringly obvious and was shocked that blueskip missed it then I reflected back on some of his past posts and realized it wasn't surprising at all. What is your excuse?
        non-biased
        Reply Vote

    • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

      @Cylon Centurion Fragmentation only exists in your mind. I'm running Honeycomb on my tablet and gingerbread on my phone. I see no real differences that make me worry. I have basically the same apps on both except for those that simply don't make sense on the phone for reasons of screen size. I'm really tired of hearing this fragmentation issue that no one ever can show more than a pittance of a showing of existance. It's far less fragmented than all the versions of Windows I've used that also had to fit multiple platforms.
      blueskip
      Reply Vote

  • Stagnation

    My Droid X is my first foray into Android and is my last. Will be going LTE iPhone when I can.

    Why:

    * Ever since Gingerbread the phone will reboot when playing MP3's.
    * Usability is good, but it gets dog slow at times.
    * Ever since Gingerbread, it stopped connecting to my BT headphones automatically
    * Media player is craptastic

    There's a few more but the iOS/iPhone/iTunes integration is top notch.
    itguy10
    Reply Vote

    • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

      @itguy10 No stagnation, of course.

      Go for Vanilla Android on a Nexus and you will not have any of the problems caused by hardware rather than software glitches.
      oliver@...
      Reply Vote

    • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

      @itguy10
      I feel exactly the same way about my iPhone 3Gs. I ended up getting rid of the laggy disaster and replacing it with my Motorola Milestone. I'll never go back to the iPhone again.
      yu119995
      Reply Vote

    • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

      @itguy10 I love my Droid X. I have NONE of the problems you're experiencing. ZERO. My bluetooth headphones work flawlessly and I have 32 gigs of music on my phone that I can swap out with ease for another 32 gigs. I don't have slowdown issues at all and I've never had the phone reboot unless the battery was dying. Clearly this is a problem you caused. I'm sorry the Droid X isn't idiot proof. Any good tool will never be idiot proof unfortunately.
      blueskip
      Reply Vote

      • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

        @blueskip [i]...I've never had the phone reboot unless the battery was dying. [/i]
        So it reboots twice a day then? ;-)
        non-biased
        Reply Vote

  • Only if they keep it on low end/free phones

    It will continue to grow only if kept on the low end to free phones. Yes that's just my opinion and time will tell.

    I say this as I would be really curious as to how many high end Android phones ($200) have sould in relation to equally priced iPhones ($200).

    The Android phones most of the people I know have (and I know alot) are in the $49 to $99 range.

    Android tablets aren't selling nearly as well as iPads, but at the same time there really aren't any low end tablets, they all cost about the same, so I have to believe that adoption is based largely on the cost of teh hardware.
    William Farrell
    Reply Vote

    • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

      @William Farrell It takes time. Eventually Android tablets will overtake the iPad in sales. It's inevitable. In fact the last set of numbers indicated that Android bases tablets had taken 20% marketshare for a particular quarter.
      yu119995
      Reply Vote

      • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

        @yu119995
        Don't waste your time with Willam (I work for Microsoft) Farrell
        czorrilla
        Reply Vote

      • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

        @yu119995 It is in no way inevitable. Do I think it is likely to happen, sure but it is in no way inevitable. We heard 18 months ago how they would overtake the iPad by the end of 2010, then 10 months ago by the end of 2011 and yet not a single one has done well at all. I think the Kindle Fire will do very well and make up a good chunk of the market share. It might very well turn out that in a year or so Android tablets might have a majority of the market but what areas of the market. Will the Kindle be the big winner giving everything to Amazon with the balance primarily being made up of low end crappy tablets while Apple hangs on to 40%? I think in that scenario there would be to winner who are very happy, Amazon and Apple but in the long run that doesn't really help give Google any incentive to push Android.
        non-biased
        Reply Vote

    • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

      @William Farrell Maybe you better start looking at the sales of Amazons Adroid powered tablet. It's definitely low end overall and is expected to FLY off the shelves. I'm no fan of Amazon books (their determination to use DRM is against my better judgement), but no one can deny their dominance in the market.
      blueskip
      Reply Vote

      • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

        @blueskip Have they released any sales figures to look at? I know there is one shipping to my house in the first batch but how many have been sold?
        non-biased
        Reply Vote

    • RE: Join us in a Great Debate: Android growth or stagnation?

      @William Farrell Whereas the Android phones of most of the people I know are in the > ??450 bracket. As the old adage goes, Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics. Or, it depends on who you sample.
      DJL64
      Reply Vote
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