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Tablet forecast dropping, but iPad going strong

By | July 11, 2011, 5:23am PDT

Summary: Not a single tablet competing with the iPad has garnered enough consumer sales to even prove there is a sizable market for non-iPads, much less affect it.

Tablets are everywhere, everyone will be buying tablets. That seems to be the mantra for those forecasting consumer electronics sales, but the truth is the iPad is the only tablet that is selling in numbers. While it may seem prudent to base tablet forecasts on the healthy sales numbers of the iPad, the fact is the only proven market for tablets has been built by Apple. Not a single competing tablet has garnered enough consumer sales to even prove there is a market, much less affect it.

The latest numbers by IDC as reported by Between the Lines show this is the case if you read between the lines. That forecast showed that tablet shipments dropped 28 percent in the first quarter of this year, failing to meet previous expectations. A factor in the lower shipping numbers was supply-side problems causing Apple to move less iPads than expected. In spite of the rash of Android tablets released to date, not a single one of them has sold in volumes to prove a sizable market exists for non-iPads.

In spite of the drop in tablets shipped in the first quarter, IDC raised its forecast for the rest of the year to 53.5 million. It based that increased forecast on “the entrance of competitive new devices in the second half of 2011“, while admitting that “demand for the category may not be quite as strong as recent media hype suggests”. In other words there has been no proof to date that a sizable consumer market exists for tablets that are not iPads.

It is not clear what competitive new devices might be hitting later this year to grab a big piece of that tablet pie. Android tablets released to date haven’t set any sales records, in fact some companies producing them have reduced production capacity for them due to low sales. On the non-Android front, neither the PlayBook from RIM nor the recently released TouchPad from HP have gotten good press. Both of those companies have stated they are focusing those tablets on the enterprise due to worst-than-expected launches. That doesn’t sound like either will set the consumer world on fire.

Should companies producing consumer tablets give up? Heavens no, I hope they keep making lots of shiny new tablets to keep us entertained. But I don’t believe they should bet the farm on the commercial success of them just yet, and I certainly don’t think analysts should be forecasting huge consumer sales. I have two Android tablets, a PlayBook, and a TouchPad, but I am still not convinced there is a consumer market for tablets without an Apple logo on the back.

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James Kendrick has been using mobile devices since they weighed 30 pounds, and has been sharing his insights on mobile technology for almost that long.

Disclosure

James Kendrick

James Kendrick has no affiliations or relationships that need to be disclosed.

Biography

James Kendrick

James Kendrick has been using mobile devices since they weighed 30 pounds, and has been sharing his insights on mobile technology for almost that long. Prior to joining ZDNet, James was the Founding Editor of jkOnTheRun, a CNET Top 100 Tech Blog that was acquired by GigaOM in 2008 and is now part of that prestigious tech network. James' writing has appeared in many print publications: Smartphone and Pocket PC Magazine, Information Week and Laptop Magazine to name a few. James' coverage of the mobile technology sector has regularly appeared in the New York Times, Salon.com and CNN/ Fortune online. Not just a writer, James has filmed numerous video reviews and how-tos that have garnered well over a million viewers. He has appeared on local news segments and been interviewed by the Associated Press on mobile technology topics. Additionally, James has been podcasting about mobile technology for years.

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RE: Tablet forecast dropping, but iPad going strong
FAULKNE 13th Oct
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The iTunes effect
William Pharaoh 11th Jul
Look at the amount of iTune accounts out there, whether you have a single iPhone, iPod, or even Apple TV you need iTunes to use them.

So when it comes time for a tablet for those that want one, it's easier to go with an iPad because you have the account, music, apps, whatever already.

Why open a second, different account someplace else for yet more money every month?
@William Pharaoh Why open a second, different account someplace else for yet more money every month?

That is certainly a reason to stay in the Apple ecosystem. Though I know quite a lot of people without an iTunes account. I imagine those would be the individuals the "other" tablet makers are targeting. It's just not working...
@Badgered with iOS 5, devices will be autonomous I believe.
  • Flagged
@CowLauncher with iOS 5, devices will be autonomous I believe.

Good to know... Though I presume it will still require an iTunes account?
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@ Badgered
Bruizer 11th Jul
But no credit card will be required. So much like Google Docs requires a Google account to have the docs tied to , iCloud will need some account to tie the service to. But each case, no credit card is needed.
@William Pharaoh As someone who has actually tried to use iTunes software on my pc, for me, NOT using iTunes is a compelling selling point for Android. My family are being weened off of "iDevices" as soon as their accounts run out.

I like being able to buy from whaever source I choose, and simply COPY my content onto my device.
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Tablets for 10 years did not sell, so this is news? The only reason the iPad is a success is that it is... A iPad. Yes, people love iPad, but they hate tablets, just like they always have.
Did you sell your Galaxy Tab? Though that was your favorite.
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Contributr
@gmich Still have it and use it daily.
@JamesKendrick Hello James, just curious about your statement that "...I am still not convinced there is a consumer market for tablets without an Apple logo on the back". Why do you say that? Is it strictly the power of Apple hype? Why do you love your Galaxy Tab and what do you use it on? Are those things that the typical consumer wouldn't like?
@JamesKendrick Apple market share is less than last year and it will only continue to go down. Just like Android phones, it doesn't make sense to compare one Android vendor's tablet to the iPad. You need to compare the sales of all tablets together against the iPad and see where things stand. It's basically the comparison of one OS to another. Let's face it, the iPad hardware is inferior to a few of the Android tablets at the moment so the main difference is the OS.
Picked up the Tab 10.1 on release day. I absolutely love it.
@tech_monster Yes, I've been recommending family and friends to get either the Galaxy Tab, Toshiba Thrive, or a netbook.
IDC noted all tablets missed their targets including the iPad 2 so I don't see how you think this is any better.

The Android Tablets on the IDC report also showed roughly half of Apple's Market share for the year and that will likely improve. If the report added the color Nook to the equation then Android Tablets were about 75% of the iPad 's market share.

Anyone that is interested, other sites show the actual numbers and reports.
@Peter Perry We will know for sure next week when we see how many Ipad 2's were actually sold.
@murving You will never know that because Apple practices Channel Stuffing as well... Reports came out stating that Apple counts an iPad sold when iit is shipped to another reseller like Walmart and Best Buy so they will show x amount shipped and count them as sold.
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I won't be buying a pad anytime soon
ron.cleaver@... 11th Jul
Anyone who isn't worried about a status symbol will wait until the product matures, just like I use XP until Windows 7 came along. IMO, maturity is a long way off.
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Lets face the facts here, tablets were nothing more than media hype. Even the ZDNet bloggers were trying to push this device as best as they could. Now its funny to watch it backfire on them. The tablet was never meant to be a mass consumer device because of its very nature. Its awkward to hold and inputting information is a chore all in itself. People are finally coming to grips with his and my previous comments about tablets are starting to ring true. You should have listened to me.
@LoverockDavidson I am curious what your thoughts are about the Windows tablets that will be coming next year along with Windows 8? Microsoft seems to think that the tablet market is important to them.
@murving
Tablet is a form-factor of either computing or media entertainment device. The combination of Win8 and tablet form-factor will, I believe, meet the requirement of many many people in the enterprise and commercial markets. Perhaps one way to look at the tablet is: it creates a distinction between personal and commercial/enterprise computing. In the past, this distinction was achieved by the added HW/SW that were geared towards the commercial/enterprise environment: e.g. bit-locker, trust computing, remote log-in, etc. It is quite possible (time will tell) that tablets for consumers and for commercial/enterprise are built differently in the future.
@LoverockDavidson

Tell my wife they are media hype! She use hers 10+ hrs a day, while I droll over my lame laptop.
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"Not a single competing tablet has garnered enough consumer sales to even prove there is a market, much less affect it." - How misleading. Non-iPads already have 34% of the market, so there's very clearly a non-iPad market.

Why should it be ONE super-competitor? So what if there are 25 tablets that together form a serious rival?

"Never let the facts stand in the way of a good story" - that should be the Apple Fan Club Motto!
@Heenan73 be cheering? Seriously? You remember the movie 300? Nobody thought the army of many thousands who eventually won were admirable. You do recall it was the much smaller force that were the hero's right? Sheeeeeeezzzzzzz:)

Pagan jim
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Who is using those 34%?
Bruizer 11th Jul
@Heenan73

They are not being used for web surfing. Channel stuffing and 1,000,000's of devices sitting on shelves and in wherehouses are money loosers.

I suspect Amazon will get the mix right, but to date, no Android tablet has seen commercial success.
@Heenan73

For the LUV of GAWD and all that is holy...

Could you PLEASE not spout off some % number without providing links to attempt to prove your statement?!?!?!? "non-iPads are turdee fowr peercents!!!" Make you sound like a whining 2 year old that got stuck with a go-bot when all the other kids were playing with their Transformers.
I think Android lack of Apps right now. is the one big thing holding Android back. I have an Ipad2, the device is good, though still has some blemishes, like lacking Flash, and I don't like Itunes much, so if Android had enough apps, I probably wouldn't mind making the switch, but the lack of apps in Honeycomb, would make me hesitant to make the jump. Ipad just has the best ecosystem do to its Apps. Also I kind of agree, tablets are a nice toy, but they lack real usability,(I do use it as reader) but a lot smart phones can do pretty much the same as a tab.
@DiceMoney,

I disagree strongly. I use my iPad and have ditched my laptop and my netbook. I find it very usable. 2 pounds (with the Zagg case/keyboard), 10 hour battery, 3G & WiFi connectivity, great e-mail client.

I could care less about flash as all the sites I use support HTML 5.

I'm no Apple fan-boy, but I think the iPad 2 is a winner. If a Windows 7/8 tablet every comes out from a vendor I can trust to be around for the life of the device, I may rethink IOS.
But for now, this is my moble platform.
The iPad will continue to be the market leader for years to come. It is all about apps and the Apple name. The iPad is just a chunk of glass and electronics without the extensive software library and Apple's ubiquitous customer support. Didn't IBM learn a similar lesson about the importance of software from Microsoft in the early days?
Went to two computer retailers today to test out their capabilities. Looking to replace the iPad because it can't provide the professional support I need for my work (Flash7 supported). To my dismay, none, absolutely none of the tablets could even come close to being a professional grade piece of equipment. Flash7 requires an account to even download; what's this? MS Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Project? No go. What gives. Don't expect me to put down $500 plus for a toy. I did that already with the iPad.
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Jeff, jeff, jeff... People are making good
James Quinn Updated - 11th Jul
@Jeff Tyler use of the iPad as a production tool, and yes some are finding the iPad a fine toy and there is nothing wrong with that either:P What is wrong is to blame your personal bad consumer habits on the iPad. The iPad does and did what it did and Apple made notsecret of it's abilities. How you bought the device needing something all together different now THERE IS THE QUESTION!!! Especially considering the fact that all i devices have never been on good terms with any version of Flash and this history goes way back. One of the very reasons I use Apple don't deal at all with that bug bait flash.

Pagan jim
@Jeff Tyler In general, an iPad is a passive tool. Use it to read textbooks, manuals, newspapers, magazines. Use it with your electronic calendar with tasks, but don't use it as a production tool.

Instead, use a desktop as your production tool, or a laptop if you have to be mobile. You will even find it convenient to use it together with your iPad. You just have to have your manuals and the like on the iPad and do the actual work on your desktop / laptop.

To students of physics and the like: Put an iPad and a laptop in your school bag. Use the iPad for manuals, pdf-files and other minor stuff. Use the laptop with Maple or Mathematica and for writing thesis and the like.

Reading books on a laptop is a nuisance. Writing books on a tablet is a nuisance too. Use the two kinds of devices properly.
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@perronne That's funny, I'm having no trouble at all working on 3 books that I'm writing, and all being done on my iPad. I can actually type faster, and since work is a windows environment, and I cannot install my iTunes account on a work pc, they have no trouble with me bringing the iPad to work.

I've had plenty of compliments also when I pull it out at meetings to take notes, and by using the iPad instead of notebooks(paper), it's also being looked into for it's Eco benefits......But you go ahead and keep spreading FUD if it makes you feel important when you have to face that image in the mirror.....
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