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James Kendrick
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Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry

By | January 16, 2012, 4:05am PST

Summary: Windows 8 represents the biggest change between versions of the operating system on most consumer PCs, and for better or worse it is going to be very important for that industry.

The consumer PC industry is in the doldrums, with sales down at bothersome levels and a near-tangible lack of enthusiasm in the air. The Ultrabook is launching in full force, and while that is intended to reignite consumer passion it alone is not going to do the trick. Windows 8 will launch in the consumer market with great fanfare this year, and how the average PC buyer will react to an OS that is such a radical departure from past versions of Windows is a big question mark.

Adopting the Metro interface in Windows 8 is a major effort by Microsoft to make the PC OS appeal to the average consumer, but it’s not a given what that reaction will be. Fact is, some consumers have an aversion to new things that are radically different from what they are used to, and that may be especially the case with PCs that many already find intimidating.

One risk Microsoft has taken with the move to such a radically different interface in Metro is the message it sends about current versions of Windows. In a way, it is an admission to consumers that Windows 7 and older versions are too outdated, and not good enough for today’s PC user. This may bite them if the reaction to Metro in the mainstream market is not positive at launch.

PC makers depend on new versions of Windows to jumpstart sales, as most consumers upgrade the OS by buying new systems. Systems with Windows 7 will still be available for a while, but Windows 8 is going to be needed to really get systems flying off the shelves. Windows 8 is so different, if buyers are reluctant to make such a big change then system manufacturers are going to be in a real pickle. They won’t sell new systems with Windows 8 due to the radical changes, and they might not be able to continue selling PCs with the older Windows if it’s viewed as too outdated.

Microsoft has a lot riding on the market acceptance of Windows 8, but it’s not alone. PC makers have even more to lose if the market has a knee-jerk reaction to the Metro style.

The marketing message from Microsoft better be well-thought out for Windows 8. Consumers need to believe it is so much easier, so much better that they have to have it. This is critical to market acceptance for something so different. If this is left up to the OEMs, the message will end up being confusing at best and negative at worst. It is the most important marketing campaign Microsoft has ever undertaken, and it better already be under careful construction.

If Microsoft and OEMs begin the Windows 8 message to address how it not only covers “regular” PCs but fancy tablets and other forms, massive confusion will follow. Consumers don’t want to run the same Windows on PCs and tablets, they are likely only in the market for one or the other at a given time. Multiple device support, Intel and ARM support, touch and non-touch support is not the message for consumers. Just show what the buyer can do with Windows 8, nothing else.

Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry, and a lot is riding on it. Microsoft better get it ready like no other Windows before, and sell it the right way. I am excited by Windows 8 and the Metro interface, but I’m not who they need to sell. It’s all the people who haven’t even seen Windows Phone yet that they need to convince how good Windows 8 will be, and that’s most everyone.

Image credit: Flickr user Robert S. Donovan

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Consumer PC, PC, Industry, Microsoft Windows 8, Consumer PC Industry, Metro, Microsoft Windows, Operating Systems, Desktops, Software, Hardware, James Kendrick

James Kendrick has been using mobile devices since they weighed 30 pounds, and has been sharing his insights on mobile technology for almost that long.

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James Kendrick

James Kendrick has no affiliations or relationships that need to be disclosed.

Biography

James Kendrick

James Kendrick has been using mobile devices since they weighed 30 pounds, and has been sharing his insights on mobile technology for almost that long. Prior to joining ZDNet, James was the Founding Editor of jkOnTheRun, a CNET Top 100 Tech Blog that was acquired by GigaOM in 2008 and is now part of that prestigious tech network. James' writing has appeared in many print publications: Smartphone and Pocket PC Magazine, Information Week and Laptop Magazine to name a few. James' coverage of the mobile technology sector has regularly appeared in the New York Times, Salon.com and CNN/ Fortune online. Not just a writer, James has filmed numerous video reviews and how-tos that have garnered well over a million viewers. He has appeared on local news segments and been interviewed by the Associated Press on mobile technology topics. Additionally, James has been podcasting about mobile technology for years.

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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dheady@... 2nd Feb
@johnfenjackson@... All of that is where Apple has been for sometime now. Apple has the added advantage of a derth of bloatware, OEM customization, and malware. M$ missed the dance by several years and can only hope that Android has screwed the pooch even worse, giving the disappointed fandroids a non-Apple venue to switch to.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
rhonin 16th Jan
Sorry.
Still not seeing why it is such a big "risk".
It's new.
It's different.
I, for one, happen to think it has potential.
If it does have issues, I still have the best OS out there to fall back on - Win7

plain
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Don't quite understand 'big risk'
Dietrich T. Schmitz * Your Linux Advocate 16th Jan
@rhonin

Even I don't accept at face value why Windows 8 is a 'big risk'.
James, can you clarify?
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Hey, where did the UI go? I know I saw it somewhere...
klumper Updated - 16th Jan
@rhonin | DTS

Risk for starters...

- the notion of change for the sake of change (image vs substance =|= attractiveness vs functionality)

- the notion that their flagship product is being modeled after a newfangled, Johnnie-come-lately smartphone

- the notion that Windows 8 might supersede Vista as Microsoft's latest bomb

- the notion of schizophrenia, after going from the egads-all-in-yer-face-at-once ribbon concept to metro minimalism ("hey, let's tap from Apple gadgetry + Google simplicity, why don't we? Au revoir to what's left of *yawn* Windows Explorer!")

'Risk' as such might be better modified as 'risk of embarrassment' or 'risk of failure' (per stagnant sales), or 'risk of overload' (per radical UI changes, or too quick of a product release cycle, especially after the durability of Win XP + success of Win7, an OS that is still miles from being fully adopted even 2.5 years from release).

Their best ace in the hole and sidestep out IMO -- a well advertised "your choice" campaign + giant "opt-out" switch for Metro UI non-believers (which I suspect will be many), coupled with a trumpeting of whatever new "winning" features they can put forth. That is, outside the new cutesy, touchy, smartphone interface. wink

Remember UAC with its lovely Mother Hen annoyance factor, as introduced in round one of Vista? You saw what happened there when it came to market acceptance, and thus the softeners Redmond quickly deployed in W7. Market acceptance matters like few other things. And thus the risk of blowing that mark.

[And unlike our eternal optimist and Winguru EB, I personally believe extending new WinOS releases to a minimum of 4 years is more ideal + realistic]
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
danbi 19th Jan
@rhonin

If you force someone to make choice, chances are they will not chose you.
With the constant and apparent rise of Apple desktops and laptops, many users might just as well decide to change ships, and trust me -- will never look back to Microsoft.

Anyway, that might be good outcome for everyone. Microsoft is a software company, that once started life writing application software for Apple computers. They may well decide to return back to their roots.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Florejaen 16th Jan
This is going to be the end for microsoft, believe me.
People I know don't like change.

Mobile phones, tablets, ... are all nice gadgets but they don't serve as "production-machines". For the
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dheady@... Updated - 16th Jan
@Florejaen For the very reason of change avoidance M$ will succeed with Win8. The PC will still have the glom of logo stickers on it including Intel Inside (where would it be?) and the ubiquitous rainbow paned Windows. It is only after the sale that buyer's remorse might set in. On the other hand Windows has always had a huge, non-intuitive learning curve, so what is really changed?
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Inertia vs Hmmm, this is different
ego.sum.stig@... 16th Jan
Fun times upcoming. Get your lager and crisps and get ready to watch the mayhem.
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MY OPINION: PC Industry will see an upswing this year despite/because of 8.
OrlandoHatch 16th Jan
I understand that the cycle of PC purchases has changed from what was a 3 year cycle to a 5-6 year cycle. Many people/businesses have older PCs reaching end of life. I assume the majority of these owners will begin to start purchasing new, replacement PCs this year, though it won't surprise me if businesses demand Win 7 be installed or if we see a shift of home users toward a first Apple computer.
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Exactly.....
linux for me 16th Jan
@OrlandoHatch

I have read in various places that businesses have already declared Win 8 as DOA. Many businesses are just now replacing failing WinXP systems with Win7 and they will not want to massively upgrade all those new Win7 system to Win8 anytime soon. Win8 looks like it will be another Win ME or BOB at this point.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
gomigomijunk 18th Jan
@linux for me, funny I've been hearing the exact opposite. The corporations I've been speaking too are excited about the new "Dashboard", the holy grail that corporations have spent years searching for. They look forward to the Metro Start screen and creating custom applications that can "peer" into their own business processes while bubbling up relevant information onto the dashboard.

Unlike current tablets, system administrators will be able to create group policies that will create a unified dashboard experience for their users and finally deliver on the promise that so many have been searching for.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
danbi 19th Jan
@gomigomijunk

If all that corporations are searching is the 'dashboard' they already have it: in MacOS X.
Stable, UNIX based OS. Pretty as well.

I happen to live in a country, where people were told to "wait for the bright future".
Something, that Microsoft is doing for so many years.
People in my country eventually got pissed of. Don't you think PC users aren't, already?
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From the same people who brought you Vista and Kin
gjafg 16th Jan
Microsoft makes the same mistake over and over again.

With Windows 8 comes another locked and closed system that will fail like the others. Windows 8 comes with features such as DRM to stop you installing an alternate OS (like Android or Ubuntu) on the tablet you just bought.

Windows 8 will not please anyone, and will join Microsoft's hall of fame with other products such as Zune and Kin.
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WHAT?
jjworleyeoe 16th Jan
@gjafg

Out of the approaching 500M Win7 licenses, what % do you think went to people interested in replacing the OS? Why on earth would you suggest this as a reason for W8 being on the path to failure? Moreover, how many people replace OSX with something else?
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Dr. Figgnuttan 16th Jan
@jjworleyeoe

That would be 400 million. If I am to believe what I have read.
Apple will have 500 million devices in the wild by Q3 2015.
So much for that 95% dominance enjoyed by Mr Softie...hehe
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dheady@... 16th Jan
@jjworleyeoe To presume even a fraction of that number rushed out and eagerly bought W7 because it was "the best OS ever" is specious at best. The vast majority of those sales were made to IT dept geeks who need the job security that MS as provided since DOS. The current trend of businesses allotting money for users to buy their own laptops or pads has seen Apple products surge tremendously while WinTel PCs are literally flatlining sales.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dave@... 18th Jan
@dheady Windows PCs aren't flatlining in sales. In fact, in 2011, they dropped by about 8% from 2010, once you filter out MacOS PCs (which grew in unit shipments, even though Apple's professional sales are dropping fast).

But, love 'em or hate 'em, you can't ignore Apple. They currently make about 5x the profit on each Mac PC they sell, compared to a company like HP or Dell. Part of this is the same strategy as on the iPhone and iPad.. they have very few actual different models. With the exception of the fading Mac Pro, every machine they sell is a laptop. The iMacs are all using laptop motherboards, and of course, include the extra profits from shipping a new screen with every unit, just as the laptops. Even the Mac Mini is built from the same basic Intel laptop chipsets. So they have a huge volume of the same parts, making each part cheaper than the regular PC vendors.

Apple ships about 5% of the world's PCs. But they make profits as if they shipped 25% of the world's PCs. That makes them effectively the largest PC vendor by far, even if they're not actually making that many units.

And PCs are only 20% or so of Apple's business these days. iOS is the big money maker. And while Android has provided some competition, if you look at the numbers, Apple and Android have both grown, largely by eating up sales of mobile devices from RIM, Microsoft, Nokia, etc. And PCs.

Windows 8 is Microsoft's attempt to leverage the desktop to shore up their mobile market. Mobile devices aren't going away. My new smartphone, the Samsung Galaxy Nexus, is faster than my desktop was ten years ago, as well as being faster than every laptop I've owned other than my current one. Sure, it's phone sized, though it works perfectly well with a Bluetooth keyboard and mouse (yeah, you even get a cursor). Tablets are kind of a gizmo today, but there's no reason anymore than increasing numbers of users won't choose tablets or even smartphones as their primary computing devices.

Microsoft actually does understand this, I believe. This is why they're risking Windows 8 as another possible Vista disaster -- or worse -- in order to get users off Win32/64 as much as possible and on to Metro/WinRT, which is going to work nicely on tablets and phones. The problem is, they're force-feeding the whole mobile OS onto the desktop to get users accepting this, not offering them a whole lot of options. And while their design may be ok on tablets (tried a Windows 7 Phone myself, though it was kind of stupid... but you do get used to anything you're forced to use, day in, day out, right), but it's going to suck on desktops. And there's not much of an opt-out, at least in the Developer Preview release. Plus, Windows 8 doesn't seem to be offering much of anything for the desktop users... it's all about leveraging Windows users into this totally new OS that just happens to also be called Windows.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Cylon Centurion 16th Jan
@gjafg

LOL! What are you talking about? Hey, buddy, I'll let you in on a little secret.... I'm dual booting my laptop with Windows 7 and Ubuntu, and I have a virtual machine on my desktop running Fedora Core. Wanna know how I did it? Simple, simply installed them.

But please don't cry about tablets. Windows 8 isn't the only tablets to feature locked boot loaders.
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You installed it on a CURRENT PC
financegozu 16th Jan
@Cylon Centurion
If MS have their way, the next PC you buy will have a locked-down EFI (unless you DIY, of course)
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Cylon Centurion 16th Jan
@financegozu

x86 hardware will continue like it is now. Secured Boot will be able to be disabled.

MANDATORY: Enable/Disable Secure Boot. On non-ARM systems, it is required to implement the ability to disable Secure Boot via firmware setup. A physically present user must be allowed to disable Secure Boot via firmware setup without possession of PKpriv [the private key that supports Secure Boot].
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Pete "athynz" Athens 16th Jan
@financegozu If MS have their way, the next PC you buy will have a locked-down EFI (unless you DIY, of course)

Ummm no. x32/64 systems will NOT be locked down unless the end user locks it down. ARM systems shipping with Windows 8 will be locked down. But one CAN buy ARM systems that do not ship with Windows 8 so this whole SJVN-fueled jihad is based on FUD, misinformation, and lies. But don't take my word for it or SJVN's - do some research and make up your own mind.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dave@... Updated - 18th Jan
@Cylon Centurion Here's another danger of Microsoft's move to Windows 8.. signed UEFI BIOS is mandated for Windows 8 machines. Yes, you can disable it, but a signed OS is only allowed to run signed drivers and the like... and there's no reason to expect the signed OS (eg, Windows 8) to permit non-signed add-ons, simply because you disabled BIOS security.

That free VirtualBox VM you're using (just guessing... it's the one running several Linux Appliance VMs on my system right now)... that's going to be a problem on those signed machines. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
BR999 16th Jan
@gjafg "With Windows 8 comes another locked and closed system that will fail like the others"
To which "others" are you referring to? Windows is the most successful OS that has ever existed on this planet.
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From the same people who brought you Windows XP, Windows 7, and WP7
Pete "athynz" Athens 16th Jan
@gjafg But from your post I'd say you are one of those Linux fanbois.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
owlnet 16th Jan
I bet lot of people are going to love it. Metro can be turned off and so people who don't want to change can stay with a desktop almost same as Win 7. But the confusion may be which one to buy, ARM or Intel. And its going to a big risk for MS the way they market Win8. For an average Joe PC buyer, they don't have a bloody clue of what ARM or X86 means and what will run on which one.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Cylon Centurion 16th Jan
In a way, it is an admission to consumers that Windows 7 and older versions are too outdated, and not good enough for today???s PC user.

Windows 7? No.

Windows Vista onwards? Yes.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dheady@... 16th Jan
@Cylon Centurion Win8 is, like most of M$'s history, another attempt to emulate Apple's business plan.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Dr. Figgnuttan 16th Jan
Windows! hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha I'm tired!
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Marketing message: easy ... system delivery ... to be proven
johnfenjackson@... 16th Jan
Whilst a job in M$ marketing is one of the last I would like ... I think the pitch is very easy:

- if you want a phone then M$/NOKIA has you covered
- if you want a touch tablet then Windows 8 Metro has you covered, both on INTEL and the new inexpensive ARM processors
- if you want a classy highly portable (business) PC then an INTEL Ultrabook with SSD's, faster processors (new in 2012) and the more efficient Windows 8 desktop has you covered
- if you want a traditional home PC or portable then W8 Desktop has you covered with a more efficient a secure version PLUS you can use the Metro interface (no additional cost) for leisure when required and become accustomed to it in your own time
- if you want an enthusiast, prosumer PC or business workstation then W8 Desktop has you covered with goodies like Spaces
- look at the similarities between the win phone interface and METRO
- here is how it all networks with your TV and XBOX
- all devices are cloud-integrated with LIVE

I remember talking to the manager of a leading UK store in a major UK city and telling him he needed to set up a complete home system demo (the TV outlet was next to the computing section) ... instead of the typical warehouse, row upon row of individual products. That was Vista in 2006! M$ have set up a few stores but they hardly compare to Apple's presence.

The real problem - are all the pieces going to come together in (say) Autumn 2012?
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Dr. Figgnuttan 16th Jan
@johnfenjackson@...

No! Not this year. Not next year. Not ever. (not ever?) well gee, thats pretty harsh.
History will continue to repeat itself. And besides, the pyridine shift has already happened. Microsoft. Legacy system. Wall street. Supports legacy systems. Government. Supports legacy systems. Lots of Microsoft stock out there. Lots of old guys who don't want their investment (made in the 80' & 90's by the way) to depreciate. That is the focus of the problem with moving away from Microsoft products! All this vested intere$t in the platform. My grandfather is dead!
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
danbi 19th Jan
@Dr. Figgnuttan

There are few "PCs" purchased in 80' and 90' that can run any decent version of Windows. These things are already depreciated.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
danbi Updated - 19th Jan
@johnfenjackson@...

How much of these options are available today? Were they available a year ago?
Imagine, lost of people already have mobile phones and tablets. When they need another one, they will think twice if they want something compatible with what they have, or something completely new and with unknown future.

Let's try your list the Apple way:

- you want an mobile phone - we have the iPhone; Runs iOS. Already available for years;
- you want an touch tablet - we have the iPad; Runs the same iOS; Also available in smaller form as iPod Touch, same iOS; Already available for years;
- you want a class, highly portable laptop with SSD, fasr processors etc and stable, high performance, professional UNIX based MacOS X: you may chose Macbook Pro or Mabcook Air. Already available for years;
- You want a traditional desktop PC. Here we have this beautiful iMac, it is as fast or faster than your tower desktop or whatever you had, plus it is all within the "display" -- no extra space, cables, junk to care about. On, and by the way it runs MacOS X - that same, yes; And, by the way it has been available for years;
- You already have high-quality display and keyboard/mouse. Ok, here is this Mac mini -- it's small indeed, but it is as powerful as it gets. Oh, and it also runs that same MacOS X, and also is available for years.
- You want a high-power workstation? Here, this Mac Pro tower. It has possibility for expansion, has server grade CPU, RAM etc. Oh and by the way, it runs the same MacOS X and.. was also available for many years.
- you want something to stream to your HDTV? Well.. you may connect your iMac, Macbook, Mac Pro, iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch to it and display what you want. But we have created this specialized device for you: Apple TV (just $99), that let's you stream things from Internet and of course from all your devices to your HDTV, wireless. It happens to run the same iOS. Oh, and this too has been available for years.
- Oh, and by the way, we have this all-in-one wireless AP, router and disk/printer/audio system sharing device, if you need to connect some old things.. It happens to run the same iOS and you see, it was available for years;
- What else, ah yes - we have this small box, that can sit somewhere on the network and backup all your Apple devices, without you noticing. That thing too, has been available for years.

If you didn't get it by now, why Microsoft should be afraid, very afraid.. I cannot help you more.

By the way, Microsoft started life as an application software developer for Apple computers. Perhaps, one day, in the bright future, they may well decide to return to their roots.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dheady@... 2nd Feb
@johnfenjackson@... All of that is where Apple has been for sometime now. Apple has the added advantage of a derth of bloatware, OEM customization, and malware. M$ missed the dance by several years and can only hope that Android has screwed the pooch even worse, giving the disappointed fandroids a non-Apple venue to switch to.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
mrlinux 16th Jan
Well since the only way for the average consumer to get a PC (Apple not included) is with Windows installed, I do not see any downside for Microsoft. If consumers do get upset Microsoft will sell them the downgrade license, worked for Vista.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Dr. Figgnuttan 16th Jan
@mrlinux

Sadly, I must agree with you. It takes determined individual thought to resist being a lemming. Most of us are lemmings. But, the times they are a changen.
.... happy
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
gomigomijunk Updated - 18th Jan
@Dr. Figgnuttan Times aren't really changing....the lemmings are still lemmings, but they lemming other systems. Unfortunately for Apple, their whole identity is based upon "Think/Be Different"....but as more people are strutting around with iPhones and iPods, that "Think/Be Different" has shifted to "Be Same/Be Stale". Who doesn't own an Apple product today? It isn't glamorous, iconic or trendy to be an Apple user anymore...

I used to turn heads with my iPod, iPhone and iPad....but now, my Windows 8 Preview Tablet is what is turning heads these days.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
danbi 19th Jan
@gomigomijunk

How is your Windows 8 tablet turning heads?
Perhaps all those people wonder why you trouble yourself with this thing?
You can never ever know what is in people's heads.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dheady@... 16th Jan
@mrlinux I recall Mr. Gates being interviewed back when it was news that a version on DOS had shipped with a huge bug. Microsoft had responded with a quick fix. When Gates was asked how this debacle might adversely affect Microsoft, he smirked and said, "We charge $10 for the update disk, so we've made about $150 million so far." I suspect that is the reason the smug Gates didn't do many interviews after that.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Pete "athynz" Athens 16th Jan
@mrlinux Dell sells laptops with Linux preinstalled. Next.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Loverock Davidson- 16th Jan
No risk at all. People who want the latest and greatest will move to Microsoft Windows 8. People who don't adapt, well they will be left behind. Sure Windows 8 will be different, but so was Windows 95 and people flocked to it, literally standing outside in lines. Different isn't bad. With the Metro interface its going to take a few minutes to get used but after that it will be second nature for the user. I have a feeling Microsoft Windows 8 will be a run away success.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
danbi 19th Jan
@Loverock Davidson-

Windows 95 was different, because it was the first Windows to support TCP/IP.
There were various hacks to add TCP/IP to earlier Windows versions but those were user applications, the OS was just as ignorant.

The problem with Windows 8 is not the Metro interface. It is that Microsoft is trying to push a new programming model, similar to that of Apple, which is of course a good thing! But they should have done this decades ago -- now the main selling point of Windows against moving to another platform is "but my applications might stop working". Well.. now they might stop working with Windows 8 as well.

So what is the choice? Move from (say) Windows 7 to MacOS, or Linux, or Windows 8?
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
mike2k 16th Jan
I don't know why MS can't leave an option for "classic desktop" (includes the Start Menu in its current Win7 state) and ease consumers into metro. Why do they need to force Metro down our throats? They eased everyone into the current start menu because a drastic change is just that, drastic. If over the next 5 years I have an option to use a classic desktop or metro and am then forced to metro in 6 years, well I could live with that. How long was DOS around before the win GUI was forced on users?
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dave@... 18th Jan
@mike2k Microsoft could do just that -- let you run the old UI, entirely. Why won't they? You have to understand what's going on here.

Metro isn't just a user interface... it's the front end of a completely different version of the Windows API, dubbed Windows RT by Microsoft. Windows NT has always supported "API servers", which is a fancy way of saying, multiple totally different OS interfaces. One of these is the Win32/Win64 interface that everyone uses. Another is the POSIX interface, which let sysadmins very easily port UNIX code to Windows servers and the like, particularly in the early days (Windows NT was originally Microsoft's answer to UNIX). As it stands now (and they could certain change this), ARM tablets and possible even x86 tablets will only run WinRT, not the full "classic" Windows API.

Microsoft sees that the portable market is a huge part of the future of computing. Look at Apple's numbers.. Apple makes only 5% of the PCs in the world, but about 25% of the money. And PCs are only 20% of Apple's business... iPhones and iPads are the rest. And none of that includes Microsoft. And Android, while not as profitable, is even better as a stand-alone OS, dominates the phone market, and may eventually win on the tablet as well. All of which marginalizes Windows.

So Microsoft needs to go mobile, and do it fast. Right now, WinRT/Metro is this weird thing you find on Windows phones. Some love it, some hate it, most people haven't found it compelling enough to even try it. That's likely to be a problem for tablets, too, right now. But Microsoft still owns the desktop.

So their plan: force-feed WinRT/Metro on the desktop as much as possible, to drive the portable market. If Windows 8 were adopted at the rate of Windows 7, Microsoft could have the first or second place mobile OS on the planet, even without actually shipping a single mobile device. This means developers supporting WinRT, it means apps sold directly from Microsoft's Zune Store (or whatever they're going to re-launch it as once Win8 is shipping), Apple-style control and profits on some of this stuff. And users adjusting to the weirdness of Metro, making tablet and mobile device sales far more likely.

This could, of course, backfire. Windows Vista was launched primarly to serve Microsoft, not the users, and it had people "upgrading" to XP for years. Windows 7 more or less supported users rather than just supporting Microsoft, kind of like the XP launch. Actually, quite a bit like that, because XP was an upgrade to the very horrible Windows 98ME that many users were stuck with... another OS that existed primarily because Microsoft needed a new OS to sell, not out of any user needs. If users like Metro.. regular users... Microsoft has a shot at the mobile market, even having pretty much missed that boat. If they find Windows 8 too self-serving and reject it, the failure could make Vista seem like a home run by comparison... and give Apple and Google another three years or so to continue to dominate the mobile world.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
danbi 19th Jan
@dave@...

WinRT will only sell on the desktop if it runs existing applications at least as good as Windows 7. That means it will have to include all the APIs, as well.

Much smarter move by Microsoft will be to name the new OS something different than Windows.
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Touch and Non-Touch is the real issue.
MichaelBarb 16th Jan
Metro is really about a touch interface. I have been designing touch screens interfaces before the original IBM PC. Windows has always been mouse centric. In many ways touch unfriendly. Touch screens are now everywhere and people have widely accepted them. Prices have dropped dramatically. Microsoft has a dilemma. If they do not change to a touch centric interface they will fall into obsolescence.

And before long even physical touches will not be necessary. Kinect is rapidly on the way to PCs. I will bet that Metro will work well with it.

Again, it is all about how people interact a device. I am ready to kill my mice.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dave@... 18th Jan
@MichaelBarb Touch is good for pocket/portable devices. It's useless for desktops. Certainly a Kinect-style device might fix that for very casual desktop use, but it's not a cure. The big difference is that most mobile users, whether on tablets or smartphones, are primarily consuming media. Not creating it.

On the desktop, I'm usually creating something. I need a keyboard for any serious writing (yeah, I even have one that works with my Android phone and tablet). I need a mouse or something similar for CAD work -- a touch screen can't possible cut it there. Again, a mouse and/or graphics tablet for photo editing, animation, other things I do on my desktop.

If you're just a content consumer, the touch screen approach might be fine on a desktop. But in fact, you don't actually need a desktop, and that's in fact the big problem Microsoft is up against here... the PC is starting to fade, and the portable is growing by leaps and bounds. Microsoft wants to get desktop PC users used to their mobile OS before they leave the desktop behind. They won't get a chance if those hundreds of millions discover Android or iOS device. Thing is, a large number already have. And messing too much with the desktop could very easily backfire. Especially for iOS fans who still use PCs.. they're already thinking about "going Mac". Seen it several times this last year already. Not techies, of course, just regular users.
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No Risk
Synthmeister 16th Jan
No risk to the basic PC industry. That will just keep chugging along albeit without any significant growth. MS will make a truckload of money just by selling pre-installed OS licenses.

The question is whether or not it will help any OEMs sell tablets or any other non-traditional PC devices.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
dave@... 18th Jan
Sure it's a risk. That's entirely because, much like Vista, Windows 8 isn't about the user. It's about Microsoft maintaining their empire. And so far, every time Microsoft has done that, it's been a disaster for them.

Maybe it'll be different this time. But Metro has absolutely nothing to do with improving the desktop experience. The whole purpose of Windows 8 on the desktop is to force-feed an entirely new tablet OS (the Metro UI and the WinRT API) onto the one place Microsoft is still in power: the desktop. If users and developers accept Metro, then Microsoft has a shot at surviving a significant migration of end users to the mobile device world... where today, Microsoft has nearly zero presence.

The risk is precisely this: do desktop users have any use at all for a tablet-oriented UI? Even Apple's half-way move toward making MacOS more iOS like has met with mixed results (largely, the collapse of their professional market), and Apple hasn't gone nearly as far as Microsoft here. Metro on mobile devices is already a mixed bag -- some people love it, many absolutely hate it (ok, sure, the vast majority have never tried it... precisely Microsoft's problem here, and why they're risking abuse of the desktop user in order to shore up acceptance of Microsoft on the handheld).

If it fails -- and the way they're strong-arming Metro in the Developer's Preview, that's very possible -- Windows 8 could make Vista look like a smashing success. Everything you want on a small, portable, finger-driven, 7-10" tablet screen is absolutely the wrong decision to work well on a mouse and keyboard driven, multi-megapixel, multi-screen PC desktop. It's sensible on a handheld, for example, to have applications take up the whole screen. There is never a case when I want that on my PC... and only a very cases when taking up even one whole screen is acceptable.
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RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
danbi 19th Jan
@dave@...

By the way, Apple's MacOS X has this full-screen application mode. It is wonderful. But what makes it useful is the various trackpad gestures. Only using a mouse and keyboard won't cut it.

Perhaps the much touted Kinect might help here, but as far as I have not seen it live yet (does it ship outside of the US???) and as far as it is really not cheap and apparently won't come bundled with the computer... no idea if it will ever take off.

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