Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Summary: Windows 8 represents the biggest change between versions of the operating system on most consumer PCs, and for better or worse it is going to be very important for that industry.
The consumer PC industry is in the doldrums, with sales down at bothersome levels and a near-tangible lack of enthusiasm in the air. The Ultrabook is launching in full force, and while that is intended to reignite consumer passion it alone is not going to do the trick. Windows 8 will launch in the consumer market with great fanfare this year, and how the average PC buyer will react to an OS that is such a radical departure from past versions of Windows is a big question mark.
Adopting the Metro interface in Windows 8 is a major effort by Microsoft to make the PC OS appeal to the average consumer, but it's not a given what that reaction will be. Fact is, some consumers have an aversion to new things that are radically different from what they are used to, and that may be especially the case with PCs that many already find intimidating.
One risk Microsoft has taken with the move to such a radically different interface in Metro is the message it sends about current versions of Windows. In a way, it is an admission to consumers that Windows 7 and older versions are too outdated, and not good enough for today's PC user. This may bite them if the reaction to Metro in the mainstream market is not positive at launch.
PC makers depend on new versions of Windows to jumpstart sales, as most consumers upgrade the OS by buying new systems. Systems with Windows 7 will still be available for a while, but Windows 8 is going to be needed to really get systems flying off the shelves. Windows 8 is so different, if buyers are reluctant to make such a big change then system manufacturers are going to be in a real pickle. They won't sell new systems with Windows 8 due to the radical changes, and they might not be able to continue selling PCs with the older Windows if it's viewed as too outdated.
Microsoft has a lot riding on the market acceptance of Windows 8, but it's not alone. PC makers have even more to lose if the market has a knee-jerk reaction to the Metro style.
The marketing message from Microsoft better be well-thought out for Windows 8. Consumers need to believe it is so much easier, so much better that they have to have it. This is critical to market acceptance for something so different. If this is left up to the OEMs, the message will end up being confusing at best and negative at worst. It is the most important marketing campaign Microsoft has ever undertaken, and it better already be under careful construction.
If Microsoft and OEMs begin the Windows 8 message to address how it not only covers "regular" PCs but fancy tablets and other forms, massive confusion will follow. Consumers don't want to run the same Windows on PCs and tablets, they are likely only in the market for one or the other at a given time. Multiple device support, Intel and ARM support, touch and non-touch support is not the message for consumers. Just show what the buyer can do with Windows 8, nothing else.
Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry, and a lot is riding on it. Microsoft better get it ready like no other Windows before, and sell it the right way. I am excited by Windows 8 and the Metro interface, but I'm not who they need to sell. It's all the people who haven't even seen Windows Phone yet that they need to convince how good Windows 8 will be, and that's most everyone.
Image credit: Flickr user Robert S. Donovan
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- Microsoft: More on Windows 8's coming drive-extender-style storage
- Microsoft CEO Ballmer's last stand: Liveblog from CES
- LG signs Android, Chrome OS patent deal with Microsoft
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Talkback
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Still not seeing why it is such a big "risk".
It's new.
It's different.
I, for one, happen to think it has potential.
If it does have issues, I still have the best OS out there to fall back on - Win7
:|
Don't quite understand 'big risk'
Even I don't accept at face value why Windows 8 is a 'big risk'.
James, can you clarify?
Hey, where did the UI go? I know I saw it somewhere...
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
If you force someone to make choice, chances are they will not chose you.
With the constant and apparent rise of Apple desktops and laptops, many users might just as well decide to change ships, and trust me -- will never look back to Microsoft.
Anyway, that might be good outcome for everyone. Microsoft is a software company, that once started life writing application software for Apple computers. They may well decide to return back to their roots.
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
People I know don't like change.
Mobile phones, tablets, ... are all nice gadgets but they don't serve as "production-machines". For the
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Inertia vs Hmmm, this is different
MY OPINION: PC Industry will see an upswing this year despite/because of 8.
Exactly.....
I have read in various places that businesses have already declared Win 8 as DOA. Many businesses are just now replacing failing WinXP systems with Win7 and they will not want to massively upgrade all those new Win7 system to Win8 anytime soon. Win8 looks like it will be another Win ME or BOB at this point.
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Unlike current tablets, system administrators will be able to create group policies that will create a unified dashboard experience for their users and finally deliver on the promise that so many have been searching for.
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
If all that corporations are searching is the 'dashboard' they already have it: in MacOS X.
Stable, UNIX based OS. Pretty as well.
I happen to live in a country, where people were told to "wait for the bright future".
Something, that Microsoft is doing for so many years.
People in my country eventually got pissed of. Don't you think PC users aren't, already?
From the same people who brought you Vista and Kin
With Windows 8 comes another locked and closed system that will fail like the others. Windows 8 comes with features such as DRM to stop you installing an alternate OS (like Android or Ubuntu) on the tablet you just bought.
Windows 8 will not please anyone, and will join Microsoft's hall of fame with other products such as Zune and Kin.
WHAT?
Out of the approaching 500M Win7 licenses, what % do you think went to people interested in replacing the OS? Why on earth would you suggest this as a reason for W8 being on the path to failure? Moreover, how many people replace OSX with something else?
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
That would be 400 million. If I am to believe what I have read.
Apple will have 500 million devices in the wild by Q3 2015.
So much for that 95% dominance enjoyed by Mr Softie...hehe
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
But, love 'em or hate 'em, you can't ignore Apple. They currently make about 5x the profit on each Mac PC they sell, compared to a company like HP or Dell. Part of this is the same strategy as on the iPhone and iPad.. they have very few actual different models. With the exception of the fading Mac Pro, every machine they sell is a laptop. The iMacs are all using laptop motherboards, and of course, include the extra profits from shipping a new screen with every unit, just as the laptops. Even the Mac Mini is built from the same basic Intel laptop chipsets. So they have a huge volume of the same parts, making each part cheaper than the regular PC vendors.
Apple ships about 5% of the world's PCs. But they make profits as if they shipped 25% of the world's PCs. That makes them effectively the largest PC vendor by far, even if they're not actually making that many units.
And PCs are only 20% or so of Apple's business these days. iOS is the big money maker. And while Android has provided some competition, if you look at the numbers, Apple and Android have both grown, largely by eating up sales of mobile devices from RIM, Microsoft, Nokia, etc. And PCs.
Windows 8 is Microsoft's attempt to leverage the desktop to shore up their mobile market. Mobile devices aren't going away. My new smartphone, the Samsung Galaxy Nexus, is faster than my desktop was ten years ago, as well as being faster than every laptop I've owned other than my current one. Sure, it's phone sized, though it works perfectly well with a Bluetooth keyboard and mouse (yeah, you even get a cursor). Tablets are kind of a gizmo today, but there's no reason anymore than increasing numbers of users won't choose tablets or even smartphones as their primary computing devices.
Microsoft actually does understand this, I believe. This is why they're risking Windows 8 as another possible Vista disaster -- or worse -- in order to get users off Win32/64 as much as possible and on to Metro/WinRT, which is going to work nicely on tablets and phones. The problem is, they're force-feeding the whole mobile OS onto the desktop to get users accepting this, not offering them a whole lot of options. And while their design may be ok on tablets (tried a Windows 7 Phone myself, though it was kind of stupid... but you do get used to anything you're forced to use, day in, day out, right), but it's going to suck on desktops. And there's not much of an opt-out, at least in the Developer Preview release. Plus, Windows 8 doesn't seem to be offering much of anything for the desktop users... it's all about leveraging Windows users into this totally new OS that just happens to also be called Windows.
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
LOL! What are you talking about? Hey, buddy, I'll let you in on a little secret.... I'm dual booting my laptop with Windows 7 and Ubuntu, and I have a virtual machine on my desktop running Fedora Core. Wanna know how I did it? Simple, simply installed them.
But please don't cry about tablets. Windows 8 isn't the only tablets to feature locked boot loaders.
You installed it on a CURRENT PC
If MS have their way, the next PC you buy will have a locked-down EFI (unless you DIY, of course)
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
x86 hardware will continue like it is now. Secured Boot will be able to be disabled.
[i]MANDATORY: Enable/Disable Secure Boot. [b]On non-ARM systems[/b], it is required to implement the ability to disable Secure Boot via firmware setup. A physically present user must be allowed to disable Secure Boot via firmware setup without possession of PKpriv [the private key that supports Secure Boot].[/i]
RE: Windows 8 is a big risk to the consumer PC industry
Ummm no. x32/64 systems will NOT be locked down unless the end user locks it down. ARM systems [i]shipping[/i] with Windows 8 will be locked down. But one CAN buy ARM systems that do not ship with Windows 8 so this whole SJVN-fueled jihad is based on FUD, misinformation, and lies. But don't take my word for it or SJVN's - do some research and make up your own mind.