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Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

Internet expert on Google+: “Facebook is toast.”

By | August 1, 2011, 12:08pm PDT

Summary: It’s one thing when new-tech fan-boys squeal with delight over Google’s new social network, but when a grandmaster of communication technology says it’s a game changer, you should listen.

It’s no secret. I like Google+ a lot. Lot of people love Google’s new social network. But, I think it noteworthy when someone like Steve Kille, a former Senior Research Fellow at University College London and one of Lightweight Directory Access Protocol (LDAP)’s authors writes, “Google+ is very impressive. I reckon Facebook is toast.”

Kille, CEO of Isode, a high-performance messaging and directory server software company, has been helping design the Internet’s communication infrastructure from its very early days. He knows what he’s talking about.

In his blog for Ferris Research, a leading e-mail and Internet communications research firm, Kille explained that he saw Google+ eventually killing off Facebook for numerous reasons.

These reasons included: Google Plus‘ “integration with other Google services [which] will be a key strategic advantage, that Facebook will not be able to match.”

He makes a good point. Google already has, for example, a sophisticated e-mail system, Gmail, and a Voice and Video over Internet Protocol (VoIP), Google Chat. Facebook, on the other hand, is discovering that integrating Skype for VoIP into Facebook is easier said than done. Just today, August 1st, a major Skype/Facebook security hole has been reported.

Kille also praised “The Circles approach to privacy control” because it “puts control of
sharing with the sender in a clean and easy to manage way. Widely aired privacy concerns with Facebook will help fuel the already spectacular growth of the invitation only G+ service.”

That’s another telling point. Many people have been voicing concern about Google+ user security.. Certainly you should be wary of your security on any social network, but keep in mind that Facebook’s security and privacy settings are an ever-changing maze. Heck, here at ZDNet’s we’ve been publishing new editions of the multi-part The Definitive Facebook Lockdown Guide in no small part because even we, people who make their living from riding technology’s cutting edge, have trouble keeping track of what’s what with Facebook’s settings.

He also thinks, as do I, that Google+’s “asymmetric model (like Twitter) will usually work better. It removes the need for ‘hand shaking’ on setup, and subsequent issues of de-friending.” With Google+, you don’t have all the friend/de-friending drama or the eternal Facebook question, “Where do I know this guy from?” You can follow someone new who follows you or not with no pressure.

Kille also thinks that “Photo integration is increasingly important and already better than Facebook. Convergence with Picasa [Google's Web-based photo album] is likely to help G+ to extend its lead.”

When I first started using Google+, I didn’t see this one myself. Since then, though, I’ve found myself being followed by more and more photographers who are using Google+ and Picasa to share their work. I suspect that it’s because photographers are growing concerned about the long-term fate of Yahoo’s Flickr and so they’re looking to move to other services such as 500px or the combination of Google+ and Picasa.

Put it all together, and Kille concludes that while “Facebook has a lot of users and enormous network effect strengths. All the same, I don’t think this will save it from going the way of MySpace.” I can’t disagree.

Related Stories:

Five Things to love about Google+

Three signs Google+ is here to stay (And two that it’s doomed)

Google revises Google+ real name management policy

What was Google thinking!?

Google+: An infographic to ease your privacy-concerned mind

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Topics

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, aka sjvn, has been writing about technology and the business of technology since CP/M-80 was the cutting edge, PC operating system

Disclosure

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols is a freelance writer. He does not own stocks or other investments in any technology company.

Biography

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, aka sjvn, has been writing about technology and the business of technology since CP/M-80 was the cutting edge, PC operating system; 300bps was a fast Internet connection; WordStar was the state of the art word processor; and we liked it.

His work has been published in everything from highly technical publications (IEEE Computer, ACM NetWorker, Byte) to business publications (eWEEK, InformationWeek, ZDNet) to popular technology (Computer Shopper, PC Magazine, PC World) to the mainstream press (Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, BusinessWeek).

Talkback Most Recent of 53 Talkback(s)

  • RE: Internet expert on Google : 'Facebook is toast.'
    I've had Google+ for a couple weeks, it has no Facebook-killing feature. What am I missing?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    ccrockett@...
    1st Aug
  • RE: Internet expert on Google : 'Facebook is toast.'
    @ccrockett@... You don't have to add complete strangers as a "friend" just because you find their posts to be interesting. Facebook is great for simple communication between friends and family, but Google+ takes this a step further by also allowing you to keep up on others whom you would like to "follow" who may not reciprocate.

    Add to the fact that you can also add people to your circle(s) who aren't even in Google+, it eliminates that barrier of (but so-and-so isn't a member of [x social network])... with Google+, you don't need to concern yourself whether or not someone uses Google+... you can still communicate with them via Google+.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    BIGELLOW
    1st Aug
  • RE: Internet expert on Google : 'Facebook is toast.'
    @BIGELLOW - "but Google+ takes this a step further by also allowing you to keep up on others whom you would like to "follow" who may not reciprocate."

    That's just sad then, and by the way there's a word for that behaviour, and its called "stalking"
    ZDNet Gravatar
    midan2@...
    2nd Aug
  • Stalking?
    This is in response to @midan2, whose post has no Reply to option. If following (i.e. consuming the content of) people who don't necessarily follow you is "stalking," then Twitter is merely a giant stalking-enabler. But that notion is as absurd as thinking that a blogger is "stalked" because s/he hasn't approved each reader of his/her posts. You blog, and you tweet, knowing that it is a social act. Facebook, at the other extreme, restricts you to communicating only with people who are reciprocally related. Google+ combines the best of both: I can choose to communicate only with those who also "follow" me (if I define such a circle); I can choose to communicate with the public ala Twitter; and I can choose anything in between.
    And all of this goes for the people I "follow" as well. I can't see *everything* that, for example, Bill Gross posts on +, but only what he decides to make public. (= to tweet.) Obviously there is a lot of other communication from Bill that goes only to specific Circles, and I have no means of "stalking" that activity.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    tim_walters
    3rd Aug
  • It only takes a pair of fat lips to become an "expert"
    on just about everything nowadays after all.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    LBiege
    1st Aug
  • I agree
    @ccrockett@... there's no chance of this displacing Facebook. None. Zero. Nada.

    Google Plus has Huddles - which is great if you don't want to pay for Skype conferencing. But there's no hope of that being the Facebook displacing killer app.

    Will not happen. No chance.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    rbethell
    2nd Aug
  • RE: Internet expert on Google : 'Facebook is toast.'
    @ccrockett@... First an foremost the facebook-killing feature number one is that it is not the face book. Its not a shitville ridden cesspool of vanity. Zukerberg is not CEO.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Tommy S.
    2nd Aug
  • RE: Internet expert on Google : 'Facebook is toast.'
    @ccrockett@... The blogger (can't really call them writers these days I guess) wears Google & *nix knee pads. Time will tell. Google tends walk on their own d*** at times.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    ItsTheBottomLine
    12th Aug
  • ZDNet Gravatar
    William Farrell
    7th Aug
  • RE: Internet expert on Google : 'Facebook is toast.'
    @William Farrell What's an experst?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    BIGELLOW
    1st Aug
  • I know, it should be experts, but the darn site
    @BIGELLOW
    doesn't let you fix a mistake without having it "the post is identified as spam" in red. You have to wait a bit.

    Was a time these sites worked, but not anymore.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    William Farrell
    1st Aug
  • RE: Internet expert on Google : 'Facebook is toast.'
    @William Farrell

    Not to mention:

    How many "experts" have claimed the death of the PC due to iPads?

    How many "experts" have claimed the death of Windows due to ChromeOS, iOS, and Android?

    How many experts have claimed the death of... blah, blah, blah.

    Facebook isn't going anywhere.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Cylon Centurion
    1st Aug
  • RE: Internet expert on Google : 'Facebook is toast.'
    @William Farrell Buzz and Google Apps never had 1% of the growth of Google+. Myspace didn't disappear so Facebook won't disappear either. However, if you don't think Facebook is feeling the heat right now, you are kidding yourself. You should go to Facebook's HQ and look for yourself, those guys have fire under their ass.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    zelrikriando
    1st Aug
  • Shrug
    @zelrikriando May or may not be true. What is also reported, however, is that Google Plus has already stalled, and it isn't even out of invite-only mode. That's a pretty remarkably Google-Wave-like pattern.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    rbethell
    2nd Aug
  • IDNK
    @William Farrell I do not know. But I think SJVN covered all of these topics gleefully.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    facebook@...
    1st Aug

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