Open source share growing in netbook market
Summary: Even if Microsoft Office is still on the desktop, I'm going with OpenOffice.org on the netbook. And I'm going to make sure we support that format back at the office.
If you told me two years ago that Linux would have 10% of the hottest new PC category, over Windows, I might have called you crazy.
If you had added that in order to keep Linux at 10% Microsoft was practically giving its Windows XP away, hoping only for upgrades that will likely never happen, I would say you had too much penguin juice.
Yet that's the news which is now being spun as a Linux defeat. After a year spent putting atrocious Linux distros on their $400 hardware, Taiwanese OEMs have now settled on Windows XP for netbook shipments, an operating system Microsoft was calling obsolete in 2007.
As Matt Asay notes, Microsoft may be in for a surprise when it tries to up-sell its netbook user base. Ubuntu has also signed OEM deals with serious brand names like Hewlett-Packard, now shipping it on a sleek new Mini 1000 (shown, from its CNet review).
And then there's Android. which some analysts are now touting as a grand unified field theory of mobility, since it will work on both netbooks and handhelds. I think that's Taiwanese spin myself. We shall see.
The question is whether the netbook is a lap-held device like your phone or a portable desktop. I'm inclined to think the latter, although that may just be my western bias for keyboards talking.
The netbook is, in some ways, a "throwaway" desktop, even though its no-moving-parts design makes it more rugged than a laptop. Laptops are becoming desktops, and netbooks what you work on at the airport.
What's needed in this scenario is simple file compatibility. I want to be able to load my files, either from the Internet or a stick, and sync them back at some point.
Thus the key is not the operating system, but the office suite. I am not loading a $200 software package on $400 worth of hardware. Even if Microsoft Office is still on the desktop, I'm going with OpenOffice.org on the netbook. And I'm going to make sure we support that format back at the office.
Thus the open source glass with netbooks is at least half-full. And when we start pouring again, I think, Linux is going to get an even bigger share.
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Talkback
Open source share growing in netbook market
Not surprising.
no !
Secondly it decreased when Microsoft came in ok. But not to zero, I am pretty sure it reached a stable number on the netbook around 20-30% (The 30% number is from Dell).
If you dont see Linux growing in any market you need to take the shit out of you eyes. What's the 1Million G1 phones sold according to you?
Yes!
[i]What's the 1Million G1 phones sold according to you?[/i]
A huge mistake!
ok so..
2 - Dell netbook sales are 30% with Ubuntu Linux on it and the return rate is not only low but as low as the one for XP. Also Dell has been steadily increasing its Linux offer, this is not going away, it's there to stay and Dell is there to stay.
3 - With the coming of the ARM netbooks. One will have 12hours+ of battery life and guess what... Win7 DOES NOT support ARM.
4 - for the 4x return rate you mention, it's simply some OEMs that failed to give proper Linux support.
"What's the 1Million G1 phones sold according to you?"
Just the beginning, Google has proven to kick everyone's ass in the past and is putting all his minions on this project. It cannot fail.
Wishful thinking
> The reports as you stated say linux is
> on the decline.
From zero to 10% in two years doesn't look like a decline to me...
And Microsoft had to slash their prices to compete.
> I'm not a fan of the netbooks and think
> its a fad that will pass.
You may *wish* that it is a fad, but the trend is clear: computers will become cheaper and cheaper.
The inverted Moore law states that the price for new computers will drop by half every 18 months.
So, a "real" notebook, which now cost $500, will be available for $250 in 18 months.
Less is Moore!
For most the users, configurations from two years ago (1GHz/1Gb RAM) are *good enought*.
> You personally don't want to drop
> $200 on a $400 machine, but I can
> see others that will as a business
> requirement.
Sure, there will still be market for $400 computers, but we can expect that to become a niche.
For most users, a $200 computer will be the best option -- and people won't want to pay 50% of the price in software.
You have the wishful thinking
And Microsoft had to slash their prices to compete.[/i]
You do realize linux had 100% of the netbook market and it got chopped down to virtually nothing. That IS a decline. Microsoft did slash prices, its called business. I can't believe you would complain about Microsoft slashing prices, isn't that what all linux fanboys wanted?
[i]You may *wish* that it is a fad, but the trend is clear: computers will become cheaper and cheaper.[/i]
I said netbooks are a fad, not that computers are becoming cheaper. We are well aware that computers have gone down in price significantly.
People will pay $200 - $400 for the computer if it makes them more productive, and are willing to pay the $200 for office if it works out in their favor.
Microsoft lost
>> netbook market and it got chopped down
>> to virtually nothing.
Sure, Linux had 100% of Asus first Eee PC netbook.
Then Microsoft started to give away XP, and Linux kept 10% of the market.
But, again -- Linux growth was from zero to 10%.
Microsoft, who used to own 99%+ of the market, now is loosing 10% to Apple and 10% to Linux.
>> I said netbooks are a fad, not that
>> computers are becoming cheaper. We
>> are well aware that computers have
>> gone down in price significantly.
Until now, the computer memory and speed doubled every 18 months, and the prices stayed more or less constant.
Now, the memory and speed is constant, and prices are dropping by half every 18 months.
Soon, the computer you pay $500 will cost $250.
That's bad news for Microsoft.
> People will pay $200 - $400 for the
> computer if it makes them more
> productive, and are willing to pay
> the $200 for office if it works out
> in their favor.
Don't you realize that Office is becoming obsolete?
Sure, sometimes people still need to write a document and have a printed copy of it; but OpenOffice can do that.
For daily use, people just send emails, and interact with web-based applications.
Perhaps it is time for Microsoft to cut their prices... $50 for Windows/Office would be acceptable. $200, no.
I would add...
Think of Bloat !
If "Windows 7" successfully goes on a diet this scenario might turn upside down.
MS will still have to give away Win7 on netbooks, and will NOT be able to
Linux will continue to force Microsoft out of their comfort zone.
Same old, same old
Windows now talking that 10 percent away from Linux. [i]That[/i] is the comfort zome Microsoft enjoys being in!
Looks bad for Ubuntu, though....
The important observation is that MS had to GIVE AWAY the OS in order to
I can only wonder how much money Ubuntu lost on netbooks
You don't understand open source...
- Sun doesn't loose money when more people use OpenOffice.
- And Canonical doesn't loose money when more people use Ubuntu.
The market is growing....
The market for netbooks is growing. Period.
Microsoft may have taken the lion's share of the market - but that's to be expected. They have ~ 90% of the desktop/laptop market.
Linux had 100% market share - when Acer had 100% market share - remember that they created the market when they launched the Asus. Look at how it took off, even with an bad choice of a distribution of Linux.
If you look at the numbers, "market share" for Linux in the netboot market is going down, but as I said earlier, that market is booming. If you care to do the research, you'll find that the total number of copies of Linux in play is still going up. It ain't going down, as much as the Microsoft-paid bloggers like old Loverock would have you believe.
Netbooks are pushing M$ to a <b>Race to the Bottom</b>
Price war!!!
Perhaps they will start paying manufacturers to bundle Windows 7 Starter.
(If I were a netbook manufacturer I would demand payment to bundle such a piece of crapware in my products)
Will Windows 7 run on a 256 Mb machine?
> this scenario might turn upside down.
Will Windows 7 run on a 256 Mb machine?
Watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z39n5Tleo0A
That's a big "IF"