The war is over and Linux won

The war is over and Linux won

Summary: The truth of the assertion is in a chart near the back of the report. It shows that 83% of companies expect to support new workloads on Linux next year, against 23% for Windows. The move is slower for larger enterprises, but the direction is clear.

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TOPICS: Open Source
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A new IBM-sponsored study on Linux sent me by Joe McKendrick, our SOA expert, goes a long way toward explaining the big Oracle and Microsoft moves regarding Linux.

The war is over and Linux won. (The original Linux penguin was created by Larry Ewing. This particular bird lives at the LWN Penguin Gallery.)

The truth of the assertion is in a chart near the back of the report. It shows that 83% of companies expect to support new workloads on Linux next year, against 23% for Windows. The move is slower for larger enterprises, but the direction is clear.

At least in the server world, Linux has won.

Web servers and database servers remain the dominant applications, but development environments are now among the most popular systems in production, meaning the trend toward Linux and open source applications should accelerate.

Over two-thirds of the respondents said they will increase their use of Linux in the next year, and almost no one said the opposite.

So if Microsoft is doing a slow take-over of Novell, and Oracle is bringing out its own stack, these are understandable defensive moves, a re-arrangement of forces if you will. Because the war is over and Linux won. And in business that means it's on to the next war.

Topic: Open Source

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  • Biting the HAND that FUDs you

    That just can't be. Why, we've seen countless studies that [i]prove[/i] that Linux is vastly more expensive, less reliable, etc. in the server room than Microsoft's offerings. These companies only [u]think[/u] they're saving money.

    That, or they've figured out that someone is lying to them.

    Next thing you know, they might start wondering if the [b]R[/b]eceived [b]W[/b]isdom might be wrong about the desktop, too.
    Yagotta B. Kidding
    • Yagotta, you're so funny

      You mean MS funded studies? Stop sobbing about reality.
      nizuse
      • RE: The war is over and Linux won

        @nizuse There shouldn't be a significant cross-browser gap in 2D rendering performance by the time IE9 is released. Chrome 7 has already been released with GPU-driven 2D acceleration, and Firefox 4's latest betas support it as well. <a href="http://www.kralarabaoyunlari.com/">araba oyunlari</a> <a href="http://www.kraloyun.gen.tr/ben-10-oyunlari/">ben 10 oyunlari</a>
        Arabalar
    • Relax. Don't be disconcerted.

      The world continues just as you've always known it.

      Linux server growth has already slowed into the single digits. Microsoft server sales are already greater than Office sales. Linux servers replace only Unix servers, and Microsoft server sales will surpass those for the combination of Linux and Unix soon enough.

      Microsoft has obtained the expertise and assistance of SuSE in creating the migration tools that will ease the Linux to Windows transition. The path was already marked out.

      Linux to Windows will soon be far easier than Unix to Windows has ever been. And companies can't wait for their chance to leap into the future.

      So curb your impatience. Linux and the rest of op-en source peaked awhile ago. They'll recede soon enough. Not everything has to happen in internet time frames.
      Anton Philidor
      • In what world?

        "Linux server growth has already slowed into the single digits."

        Yet Red Hat experienced 52% revenue growth last qtr over
        previous qtr.

        Novell's Linux revenue growth is also greater than MS's.

        "Microsoft server sales are already greater than Office sales."

        I'm sorry, link please! MS's "Microsoft Business Division" revenue
        is significantly greater than "Server and Tools". Revenue growth
        for the later being largely SQL Server. Add MS margins on their
        server divisions are tiny compared to Office and windows and
        the scenario isn't as rosy as it has been attempted to have been
        painted.

        "Linux servers replace only Unix servers, and Microsoft server
        sales will surpass those for the combination of Linux and Unix
        soon enough."

        Can't agree (and neither does the survey data). Linux is picking
        up new business, business that might have gone to windows.

        "Microsoft has obtained the expertise and assistance of SuSE in
        creating the migration tools that will ease the Linux to Windows
        transition."

        Sorry didn't read this in the announcements. Link please.

        Linux is the fastest growing OS in server and embedded spaces.
        Only in desktop is it not making significant gains - but neither is
        MS having 95% of the market already. Welcome to the real world.
        Richard Flude
        • I suppose you live in Mars

          Here is the Linux growth in single digits

          http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=11637


          Here is Windows growth in double digits
          http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2006/oct06/10-26Q1FY07ERPR.mspx

          If you feel that you need another source
          http://www.itjungle.com/two/two110106-story02.html




          "Linux servers replace only Unix servers, and Microsoft server
          sales will surpass those for the combination of Linux and Unix
          soon enough."
          Your reply being - "Can't agree (and neither does the survey data). Linux is picking
          up new business, business that might have gone to windows."

          A 2005 article but do a search and you'll find plenty of articles
          http://www.informationweek.com/windows/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=180206407&subSection=Product%20News

          One important aspect to note is Windows Server sales is in 3-4 billion range (thats just the revenue from the Windows OS).
          Whereas Linux Server revenue is $5billion which means that the hardware is included in the total. If you included Windows server revenue, it will be a lot lot more.



          "Linux is the fastest growing OS in server and embedded spaces."
          When Linux is having single digit growth and Windows having double digit your claim is ridiculous.


          Embedded space, sure Linux is used in areas where there is no Windows representation. In areas where Windows has a presence there is plenty of competition. In no area is Linux the leader where Windows has a presence.
          zzz1234567890
          • You two aren't on the same page

            In terms of revenue, MS wins that battle hands down. In terms of server deployment growth rate year over year, Linux is way ahead of Windows.

            Also, your second link is valid, but not really relevant. It states that the profit MS received from server sales was up 17% (which means they increased their margin), however, MS server sales growth was only in the 3-5% range.

            http://www.linuxelectrons.com/News/Hardware/Linux_Continues_to_Lead_Server_Market_Growth
            [B]"Linux servers and Windows servers continued to grow unit shipments at double-digit rates, but revenue growth for both types of servers moderated to single-digit growth,"[/B]

            Again, with Linux, you can't only measure revenue, since as often as not, the server going live was downloaded free or as allowed, that one RedhatEnterprise CD was installed on 20 servers, support no longer needed now that the IT group is completely up to speed.

            In any case, you two weren't arguing about the same thing.

            TripleII
            TripleII-21189418044173169409978279405827
          • Apples and Horse apples

            [i]Here is the Linux growth in single digits

            http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=11637[/i]

            You really shouldn't have given a link. Linux growth was 6.1%, overall server sales were 0.6%, and Microsoft's growth was 3.1%.

            If that indicates that Linux is running out of steam, Microsoft is on life support.

            [i]Here is Windows growth in double digits
            http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2006/oct06/10-26Q1FY07ERPR.mspx[/i]

            That doesn't say anything about server sales.

            The rest of your post is predicated on that -- a Microsoft sales division (which among other things gets support money from SQL Server users) vs. an IDC sales report.

            Since the IDC report [b]did[/b] make the direct comparisons, I wonder why you chose not to use their Microsoft results?
            Yagotta B. Kidding
          • I award you the Ou Medal....

            ... for statistical comparison. Defconvegas has won this distinguished award for comparing Linux stats from last January with MS stats from last month.

            Hint - try and compare things in the same time period to even out seasonal variation. That way you're more likely to be comparing like with like.
            bportlock
          • With hairy palm cluster

            [i]Defconvegas has won this distinguished award for comparing Linux stats from last January with MS stats from last month.[/i]

            You missed the fact that he jerked the MS numbers from their divisional quarterlies (with lots of other stuff mixed in) while blindly ignoring the IDC numbers that were directly comparable (in the same report as the Linux ones he cites.)
            Yagotta B. Kidding
          • How many more hints do you need....

            "It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." -- Mark Twain ..
            barstewards
        • Quote sources, please??

          Could you quote your sources for Linux "not making significant gains" on the desktop?

          I was only aware of tracking of OSes by a few servers, based upon the logs, many of which report MS when the user OS is GNU/Linux and, because perhaps, ~90% of all Linux installs are from freely downloaded CDrom images, there are only sales figures for Microsoft sales of desktop installs.

          Actually, in the two clubs which I know set up schools, churches, charities, businesses, and children's computers, over 2,000 switches from Linux are made, annually, with no reports to anyone.

          The Indiana State Public Schools' switch of 300,000 student computers to GNU/Linux, starting with the first 20,000 last week, are un-reported to anyone except the media.

          Same with the 480,000 desktop systems of IBM, purported to being changed to GNU/Linux starting after Microsoft demanded the entire future year upgrades be paid prior to October 1, 2005.

          I propose that the stats on desktop use of GNU/Linux are extremely under-reported.

          Anyway, all the 'quotes' of desktop use of OSes by 'for-profit' multiple convicted FELON MS are total vapor, unless I see some accurate stats by bonded third parties who are NOT paid for by Ms!
          pberry26@...
          • I can't

            "Could you quote your sources for Linux "not making significant
            gains" on the desktop?"

            except the lack of any data that supports Linux is making
            significant desktop gains.

            I'm involved in enterprise environments so my experience may
            be skewed but as yet I'm not seeing significant Linux desktop
            gains - though I'm following closely large scale projects
            overseas (Munich, IBM and Novell).

            Now this is not to say there are no Linux desktop deployments,
            or that there isn't demand for Linux desktops (I believe there is
            particularly for Terminal Servers), all I'm saying is compared to
            the total install desktop base Linux has not made significant
            gains (the one OS market where Linux has yet to make a
            significant impact).
            Richard Flude
          • Exactly

            no one will know how many people switcvhed over to linux Until Microsoft is gone,
            and DON'T ANY OF YOU THAT ARE HIRED BY MICROSOFT TO SAY OTHERWISE SAY
            OTHERWISE!!!
            Graham Fluet
          • Not to mention that one free download can be installed hundreds of times

            Which is why it is near possible to get a real time comparison.

            For instance I have downloaded 3 versions of Ubuntu Linux so that counts as 3 installs. But in reality it is 90 installs.

            How can you track the Linux level? You can't.

            We will know when Microsoft starts acting scared of Linux. Since they have already done that, Linux is winning the battles in the fight.

            One day just like the servers, you will wake up and find everyone is dumping Windows for Linux.
            slim-01
      • The rest of the story

        [i]Linux server growth has already slowed into the single digits.[/i]

        In a period when net server sales growth (including Microsoft's) were negative.

        [i]Microsoft server sales are already greater than Office sales.[/i]

        That's because the "server sales" cited is the sales of full-up systems loaded with MS software, not just the licenses.

        [i]Linux servers replace only Unix servers[/i]

        Actually, the last study I saw showed that 44% of Linux replacement sales went to replacing Microsoft boxes. Most of the growth is in new units.

        [i]Microsoft server sales will surpass those for the combination of Linux and Unix soon enough.[/i]

        Not according to the relative growth rates -- Linux growth in absolute numbers is greater than Microsoft's.

        [i]Microsoft has obtained the expertise and assistance of SuSE in creating the migration tools that will ease the Linux to Windows transition.[/i]

        Microsoft was claiming to be POSIX compliant more than a decade ago. Do you mean that they fraudulently claimed that in order to qualify for Federal purchasing? In any case, SuSE has no special expertise there.
        Yagotta B. Kidding
      • Actually Linux has never been standing in better shape

        Ready to move in and snag all the Vista failures.

        Just wait a couple of years when Microsoft doesn't support XP any longer. That's when Linux will kill Windows. As soon as people have to update a 2 year old PC with XP that can't run Vista.
        slim-01
        • Gotta agree here..

          I love reading the anti-linux posts. You can tell quickly that these people haven't used linux. I'm not anti-microsoft, but I quickly became tired of the bloated slow feeling of Windows. I really think XP was and is still the best of MS. I hope they didn't make a mistake with Vista. As an IT person, I'm not ready to embrace Vista until some pretty major issues are addressed.

          A home, I personally made the switch about 12-years ago to Linux and really haven't looked back. I still have an XP machine that I use occasionally for games and some graphic software that isn't (yet) available for Linux/Unix. But for about 90% of what most people would do with a computer, Linux is so much faster, safer, prettier, cheaper, and easier to use.

          Of course I also realize that many of the current generation of computer users have only used Windows. I started out on TRS-80's, Apple II's, TI's, and Commodores. Yeah.. I'm getting kinda old. No fear of command line here I guess!

          So, to each his own. Just realize that Windows isn't the only OS out there. I'd recommend trying Linux as a dual-boot. It's free and refreshing.
          guitodd
      • RE: The war is over and Linux won

        Because the war is over and Linux won. And in business that means it's on to the next war.<a href="http://www.edra41.org/"><font color="LightGrey"> a</font></a><a href="http://www.actioniseloquence.net/"><font color="LightGrey"> b</font></a><a href="http://www.funds-china.com/"><font color="LightGrey"> c</font></a><a href="http://www.isupportbridgewater.com/"><font color="LightGrey"> d</font></a><a href="http://www.cca64.org/"><font color="LightGrey"> e</font></a>
        zakkiromi
      • RE: The war is over and Linux won

        Over two-thirds of the respondents said they will increase their use of Linux in the next year, and almost no one said the opposite.<a href="http://www.edra41.org/"><font color="LightGrey"> a</font></a><a href="http://www.actioniseloquence.net/"><font color="LightGrey"> b</font></a><a href="http://www.funds-china.com/"><font color="LightGrey"> c</font></a><a href="http://www.isupportbridgewater.com/"><font color="LightGrey"> d</font></a><a href="http://www.cca64.org/"><font color="LightGrey"> e</font></a><a href="http://www.nexumbogazici.com/"><font color="LightGrey"> f</font></a>
        zakkiromi