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Dana Blankenhorn & Paula Rooney
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The war is over and Linux won

By Dana Blankenhorn | November 9, 2006, 6:08am PST

Summary

The truth of the assertion is in a chart near the back of the report. It shows that 83% of companies expect to support new workloads on Linux next year, against 23% for Windows. The move is slower for larger enterprises, but the direction is clear.

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Dana Blankenhorn

Biography

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for nearly 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the Interactive Age Daily for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age's "NetMarketing" supplement, and dozens of other publications over the years.

Paula Rooney

Biography

Paula Rooney

Paula Rooney

Paula Rooney has covered the technology industry for more than 15 years, starting with semiconductor design and mini-computer systems at EDN News and later focused on PC software companies including Microsoft, Lotus, Oracle, Red Hat, Novell and other open source and commercial software companies for CRN and PCWeek. She received a silver award from the American Society of Business Publication Editors in 2005 for her profile on Linus Torvalds and edited and co-authored "Partnering With Microsoft," a book about Microsoft's channel published by CMP Publishing in 2004. Rooney graduated from the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism in 1997. In her off time, she enjoys scuba diving, sailing, sun worshipping, running and reading. She resides on the shores of Scituate, Massachusetts.

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A new IBM-sponsored study on Linux sent me by Joe McKendrick, our SOA expert, goes a long way toward explaining the big Oracle and Microsoft moves regarding Linux.

The war is over and Linux won. (The original Linux penguin was created by Larry Ewing. This particular bird lives at the LWN Penguin Gallery.)

The truth of the assertion is in a chart near the back of the report. It shows that 83% of companies expect to support new workloads on Linux next year, against 23% for Windows. The move is slower for larger enterprises, but the direction is clear.

At least in the server world, Linux has won.

Web servers and database servers remain the dominant applications, but development environments are now among the most popular systems in production, meaning the trend toward Linux and open source applications should accelerate.

Over two-thirds of the respondents said they will increase their use of Linux in the next year, and almost no one said the opposite.

So if Microsoft is doing a slow take-over of Novell, and Oracle is bringing out its own stack, these are understandable defensive moves, a re-arrangement of forces if you will. Because the war is over and Linux won. And in business that means it's on to the next war.

Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for 30 years, a tech freelancer since 1983.

Disclosure

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn has been a journalist, writer and part-time futurist for over 30 years.

At the present moment I run only a personal blog in addition to my ZDNet open source blog.

DanaBlankenhorn.Com has the subtitle The War Against Oil. In the past I have used it to write about political history, e-commerce, personal matters, some ideas related to open source, and The World of Always On, which is the idea of using sensors, motes and RFID to turn WiFi links into platforms for applications which live in the air.

My IRA account at Schwab holds a few tech shares, most notably some Intel and Applied Materials, but there are no open source companies in it. I don’t even own any CBS stock.

Biography

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for nearly 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the Interactive Age Daily for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age's "NetMarketing" supplement, and dozens of other publications over the years.

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  • Biting the HAND that FUDs you
    That just can't be. Why, we've seen countless studies that prove that Linux is vastly more expensive, less reliable, etc. in the server room than Microsoft's offerings. These companies only think they're saving money.

    That, or they've figured out that someone is lying to them.

    Next thing you know, they might start wondering if the Received Wisdom might be wrong about the desktop, too.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Yagotta B. Kidding
    11/09/2006 06:18 AM
  • Yagotta, you're so funny
    You mean MS funded studies? Stop sobbing about reality.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    nizuse
    11/09/2006 06:52 AM
  • Relax. Don't be disconcerted.
    The world continues just as you've always known it.

    Linux server growth has already slowed into the single digits. Microsoft server sales are already greater than Office sales. Linux servers replace only Unix servers, and Microsoft server sales will surpass those for the combination of Linux and Unix soon enough.

    Microsoft has obtained the expertise and assistance of SuSE in creating the migration tools that will ease the Linux to Windows transition. The path was already marked out.

    Linux to Windows will soon be far easier than Unix to Windows has ever been. And companies can't wait for their chance to leap into the future.

    So curb your impatience. Linux and the rest of op-en source peaked awhile ago. They'll recede soon enough. Not everything has to happen in internet time frames.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Anton Philidor
    11/09/2006 08:29 AM
  • In what world?
    "Linux server growth has already slowed into the single digits."

    Yet Red Hat experienced 52% revenue growth last qtr over
    previous qtr.

    Novell's Linux revenue growth is also greater than MS's.

    "Microsoft server sales are already greater than Office sales."

    I'm sorry, link please! MS's "Microsoft Business Division" revenue
    is significantly greater than "Server and Tools". Revenue growth
    for the later being largely SQL Server. Add MS margins on their
    server divisions are tiny compared to Office and windows and
    the scenario isn't as rosy as it has been attempted to have been
    painted.

    "Linux servers replace only Unix servers, and Microsoft server
    sales will surpass those for the combination of Linux and Unix
    soon enough."

    Can't agree (and neither does the survey data). Linux is picking
    up new business, business that might have gone to windows.

    "Microsoft has obtained the expertise and assistance of SuSE in
    creating the migration tools that will ease the Linux to Windows
    transition."

    Sorry didn't read this in the announcements. Link please.

    Linux is the fastest growing OS in server and embedded spaces.
    Only in desktop is it not making significant gains - but neither is
    MS having 95% of the market already. Welcome to the real world.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Richard Flude
    11/09/2006 04:00 PM
  • I suppose you live in Mars
    Here is the Linux growth in single digits

    http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=11637


    Here is Windows growth in double digits
    http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2006/oct06/10-26Q1FY07ERPR.mspx

    If you feel that you need another source
    http://www.itjungle.com/two/two110106-story02.html




    "Linux servers replace only Unix servers, and Microsoft server
    sales will surpass those for the combination of Linux and Unix
    soon enough."
    Your reply being - "Can't agree (and neither does the survey data). Linux is picking
    up new business, business that might have gone to windows."

    A 2005 article but do a search and you'll find plenty of articles
    http://www.informationweek.com/windows/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=180206407&subSection=Product%20News

    One important aspect to note is Windows Server sales is in 3-4 billion range (thats just the revenue from the Windows OS).
    Whereas Linux Server revenue is $5billion which means that the hardware is included in the total. If you included Windows server revenue, it will be a lot lot more.



    "Linux is the fastest growing OS in server and embedded spaces."
    When Linux is having single digit growth and Windows having double digit your claim is ridiculous.


    Embedded space, sure Linux is used in areas where there is no Windows representation. In areas where Windows has a presence there is plenty of competition. In no area is Linux the leader where Windows has a presence.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    zzz1234567890
    11/09/2006 07:32 PM
  • You two aren't on the same page
    In terms of revenue, MS wins that battle hands down. In terms of server deployment growth rate year over year, Linux is way ahead of Windows.

    Also, your second link is valid, but not really relevant. It states that the profit MS received from server sales was up 17% (which means they increased their margin), however, MS server sales growth was only in the 3-5% range.

    http://www.linuxelectrons.com/News/Hardware/Linux_Continues_to_Lead_Server_Market_Growth
    "Linux servers and Windows servers continued to grow unit shipments at double-digit rates, but revenue growth for both types of servers moderated to single-digit growth,"

    Again, with Linux, you can't only measure revenue, since as often as not, the server going live was downloaded free or as allowed, that one RedhatEnterprise CD was installed on 20 servers, support no longer needed now that the IT group is completely up to speed.

    In any case, you two weren't arguing about the same thing.

    TripleII
    ZDNet Gravatar
    TripleII
    11/09/2006 10:00 PM
  • Apples and Horse apples
    Here is the Linux growth in single digits

    http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=11637

    You really shouldn't have given a link. Linux growth was 6.1%, overall server sales were 0.6%, and Microsoft's growth was 3.1%.

    If that indicates that Linux is running out of steam, Microsoft is on life support.

    Here is Windows growth in double digits
    http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2006/oct06/10-26Q1FY07ERPR.mspx

    That doesn't say anything about server sales.

    The rest of your post is predicated on that -- a Microsoft sales division (which among other things gets support money from SQL Server users) vs. an IDC sales report.

    Since the IDC report did make the direct comparisons, I wonder why you chose not to use their Microsoft results?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Yagotta B. Kidding
    11/10/2006 04:40 AM
  • I award you the Ou Medal....
    ... for statistical comparison. Defconvegas has won this distinguished award for comparing Linux stats from last January with MS stats from last month.

    Hint - try and compare things in the same time period to even out seasonal variation. That way you're more likely to be comparing like with like.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    bportlock
    11/10/2006 10:15 AM
  • With hairy palm cluster
    Defconvegas has won this distinguished award for comparing Linux stats from last January with MS stats from last month.

    You missed the fact that he jerked the MS numbers from their divisional quarterlies (with lots of other stuff mixed in) while blindly ignoring the IDC numbers that were directly comparable (in the same report as the Linux ones he cites.)
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Yagotta B. Kidding
    11/10/2006 02:40 PM
  • How many more hints do you need....
    "It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." -- Mark Twain ..
    ZDNet Gravatar
    barstewards
    11/10/2006 01:08 PM
  • Quote sources, please??
    Could you quote your sources for Linux "not making significant gains" on the desktop?

    I was only aware of tracking of OSes by a few servers, based upon the logs, many of which report MS when the user OS is GNU/Linux and, because perhaps, ~90% of all Linux installs are from freely downloaded CDrom images, there are only sales figures for Microsoft sales of desktop installs.

    Actually, in the two clubs which I know set up schools, churches, charities, businesses, and children's computers, over 2,000 switches from Linux are made, annually, with no reports to anyone.

    The Indiana State Public Schools' switch of 300,000 student computers to GNU/Linux, starting with the first 20,000 last week, are un-reported to anyone except the media.

    Same with the 480,000 desktop systems of IBM, purported to being changed to GNU/Linux starting after Microsoft demanded the entire future year upgrades be paid prior to October 1, 2005.

    I propose that the stats on desktop use of GNU/Linux are extremely under-reported.

    Anyway, all the 'quotes' of desktop use of OSes by 'for-profit' multiple convicted FELON MS are total vapor, unless I see some accurate stats by bonded third parties who are NOT paid for by Ms!
    ZDNet Gravatar
    pberry26@...
    11/10/2006 04:24 PM
  • I can't
    "Could you quote your sources for Linux "not making significant
    gains" on the desktop?"

    except the lack of any data that supports Linux is making
    significant desktop gains.

    I'm involved in enterprise environments so my experience may
    be skewed but as yet I'm not seeing significant Linux desktop
    gains - though I'm following closely large scale projects
    overseas (Munich, IBM and Novell).

    Now this is not to say there are no Linux desktop deployments,
    or that there isn't demand for Linux desktops (I believe there is
    particularly for Terminal Servers), all I'm saying is compared to
    the total install desktop base Linux has not made significant
    gains (the one OS market where Linux has yet to make a
    significant impact).
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Richard Flude
    11/12/2006 02:54 PM
  • Exactly
    no one will know how many people switcvhed over to linux Until Microsoft is gone,
    and DON'T ANY OF YOU THAT ARE HIRED BY MICROSOFT TO SAY OTHERWISE SAY
    OTHERWISE!!!
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Graham Fluet
    12/07/2006 03:19 PM
  • Not to mention that one free download can be installed hundreds of times
    Which is why it is near possible to get a real time comparison.

    For instance I have downloaded 3 versions of Ubuntu Linux so that counts as 3 installs. But in reality it is 90 installs.

    How can you track the Linux level? You can't.

    We will know when Microsoft starts acting scared of Linux. Since they have already done that, Linux is winning the battles in the fight.

    One day just like the servers, you will wake up and find everyone is dumping Windows for Linux.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    slim-01
    12/07/2006 05:15 PM
  • The rest of the story
    Linux server growth has already slowed into the single digits.

    In a period when net server sales growth (including Microsoft's) were negative.

    Microsoft server sales are already greater than Office sales.

    That's because the "server sales" cited is the sales of full-up systems loaded with MS software, not just the licenses.

    Linux servers replace only Unix servers

    Actually, the last study I saw showed that 44% of Linux replacement sales went to replacing Microsoft boxes. Most of the growth is in new units.

    Microsoft server sales will surpass those for the combination of Linux and Unix soon enough.

    Not according to the relative growth rates -- Linux growth in absolute numbers is greater than Microsoft's.

    Microsoft has obtained the expertise and assistance of SuSE in creating the migration tools that will ease the Linux to Windows transition.

    Microsoft was claiming to be POSIX compliant more than a decade ago. Do you mean that they fraudulently claimed that in order to qualify for Federal purchasing? In any case, SuSE has no special expertise there.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Yagotta B. Kidding
    11/10/2006 04:28 AM
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