Software as Services

Phil Wainewright

Calling all cloud skeptics

By Phil Wainewright | August 4, 2010, 4:53am PDT

Summary: Does cloud skepticism have a champion who can rally the forces of fear, uncertainty and doubt against the onward march of cloud computing? Or is resistance futile?

In an age when pretty much everyone (even Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer) seems to have decided the cloud represents the future of computing, I’m beginning to wonder whether there are any cloud skeptics left. Is this really a dying breed or does cloud skepticism have a champion who can rally the forces of fear, uncertainty and doubt against the onward march of cloud computing?

If there is such a person out there, then I urge their fans to nominate him or her to take part in the Summer Slam 2010 webcast debate with myself and several other cloud supporters taking place later this month. Organised by cloud integrator Appirio [disclosure: a current client], this is a follow-up to a debate that first aired in January. In that earlier debate, we all came out against the notion of private cloud (some of us vehemently), but there was no one on the webcast to put the other point of view.

This time round, Appirio is publicly inviting nominations for the biggest cloud skeptic anyone knows to take part in the webcast. Nominations close end of day on Friday August 6th, so there’s a just few days left to nominate your favorite cloud skeptic. That person will join the four of us and have their chance to rebut our optimism and enthusiasm for cloud computing.

But be warned: this is no easy challenge. Cloud skeptics have a habit of setting up a ’straw man’ definition of cloud computing that’s easy to demolish but has no relation to the reality of the cloud. This debate demands someone who understands what cloud computing is all about, and yet still rejects it. So much of the resistance against the cloud is based on distrust of the unfamiliar, I’m not sure that such a person exists. So come on, prove me wrong …

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Skeptic, Server Virtualization, Cloud Computing, Virtualization, Servers, Hardware, Phil Wainewright

Since 1998, Phil Wainewright has been a thought leader in cloud computing as a blogger, analyst and consultant.

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RE: Calling all cloud skeptics

" I?m beginning to wonder whether there are any cloud skeptics left."

I'm not skeptical that the cloud will be important - but I am skeptical that "100% cloud" will happen in a world where networking is inherently imperfect, or that it's a magical silver bullet for all problems.

There's also security issues to resolve, as well as privacy issues.

And of course there's a level of loss of control, and many people don't like that, period.

I think that often cloud pushers are under the illusion that it solves all problems everywhere. I don't think it does.

Refusal to admit there's any problems at all with a solution is often a sign of dishonesty.
CobraA1
4th Aug 2010
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RE: Calling all cloud skeptics

@CobraA1 - and intellectual property ownership concerns.

Plus, the cloud providers are doing most of the hype. Like a company that is its own referee for its own rules, I am very skeptical.

Many are. Legitimately so.
HypnoToad72
4th Aug 2010
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I agree

@CobraA1

Cloud is going to be important for some things. Corporate isn't going to just trust the cloud even if most consumers might.

Corporate isn't going to let an entire manufacturing facility shutdown just because of an ISP outage. Remember, just this week AT&T had multiple state-wide outages.

It is ok to be skeptical of the cloud.

"the cloud represents the future of computing" for many things but not everything.
dragosani
4th Aug 2010
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RE: Calling all cloud skeptics

@CobraA1 - I agree with everything you said.

I just want to add that cloud computing is very very old. People should remember that before the "personal computer revolution", everything was in the cloud. And why was it necessary to have a "personal computer revolution"? Because not everything works well in the cloud.

I cannot imagine that I will ever want to create a PowerPoint presentation in the cloud. I probably would never want to browse thousands of photos in my digital camera in the cloud either.
billcheng
4th Aug 2010
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RE: Calling all cloud skeptics

@billcheng ? just a comment, that before the "personal computer revolution" everything was in a solid locked down mainframe ... nothing was in a "cloud" unless I really don't understand what a "cloud" is.
jcpwiz45@...
5th Aug 2010
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You are 100% correct jcpwiz45

A Mainframe is NOT the cloud...

Cloud computing is having strangers provide your apps and data remotely... Hosting them in remote server rooms/farms. Trusting them to hire trustworthy people who will not steal your data. Trusting them to hire competent people who will not lose your data or have massive amounts of down time. People competent enough to protect your data from hackers who think that one stop shopping is a great idea. Hopefully you will have someone competent enough to negotiate the costs of record retention (data backups), storage, and hopefully hold them for the correct timeframe and hopefully destroy them after the legally required data retention period. Hopefully they have a disaster recovery plan, and they have tested that disaster recovery, and hopefully they don't have to spend years constructing a brand new (massive) data center (in order to facilitate the disaster recovery in the event of a real disaster). Hopefully your ISP is relaible enough to ensure stable service so that your business doesn't come to a grinding halt when your network connection goes down (right before the world makes the leap to IPv6)... Hopefully your cloud companies ISP is relaible enough to ensure stable service so that your business doesn't come to a grinding halt when your network connection goes down (right before the world makes the leap to IPv6)... Oh yes, cloud computing is a great idea (If you are brain dead).
i8thecat
9th Aug 2010
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RE: Calling all cloud skeptics

@CobraA1 Hear here!
fairportfan
4th Aug 2010
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You aren't a Cloud Skeptic!

@CobraA1

I think you're safe and don't fall in the category "cloud skeptics".

Not seeing 100% of computing power in the world moved to the cloud is normal I think, "cloud skeptics" though would hope that 0% was moved since they reject the concept as a sound IT architecture.

Like you, I think that hurdles still exists (privacy, compliance) and have to be discussed in all honesty as you put it and publicly. This will to help to get them tackled by all parts involved. The Cloud as a whole (vendors and ISPs) is just maturing as technology evolves...

For having worked for a SaaS vendor, I think that security issues essentially are more of a debatable rumour or an easy argument than an obvious fact. Security is a really complex matter and I have yet to see the proof that any Ethical (or not) Hacker would find his way quicker into Google than into any other Corporation Infrastructure. I appreciate that there is an higher appeal to target Google but then I suggest that if it was the case this would have already happened and would be widely publicized.

Cheers

Fabrice Cathala
Fabrice Cathala
5th Aug 2010
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RE: Calling all cloud skeptics

@Fabrice Cathala When dealing with sensitive data any responsible PM should apply the concepts of the Precautionary Principle. If we are not absolutely sure that the cloud does not introduce extra security risks, then we should not commit sensitive data to it.
Cloud computing introduces a whole new host of possible risks that would be far more difficult to detect than in stand-alone systems.
The old security paradigm of reacting to compromises is not relevant to the cloud in these circumstances. Waiting for the horse to bolt before slamming the barn door is no use if the horse has already been kidnapped through a tunnel.
JOHN_TUOHY
6th Aug 2010
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Biggest mainframe in history

@CobraA1 ...is the way I see the Cloud. I would never trust my files to someone else's memory any more than I would trust my money in someone else's account. I much prefer the autonomy I have now. I'm much more negative on this this than just skeptical.
becabill
5th Aug 2010
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Forget the cloud, it's comms that matter

@CobraA1

There will always be some things available from the cloud, but it terms of my software business, it's the comms that matter.

I use a MS Small Business Server, a virtual private network and remote desktop connection to ensure my business data is available anywhere. All our software is either local or running on our server.

MSSBS takes care of project management, collaboration, bug tracking, documentation, scripts and client contacts as well as a web server to allow clients to view our productions and enter quality control notes directly. My internal network and production servers are directly available remotely through the VPN and if I need direct access to the server or any computer on my business network when I'm out of the office, then I can use the remote desktop connection.

I do have my business website hosted externally as it's mainly advertising, but I could host it internally if I wanted to - just not worth the extra traffic to my internal business server.

If the Internet goes down, then I still have internal systems for production and my web server for other tasks.

The question is why I would want to replace this with cloud-based apps running through one connecition. Either the Internet or the Vendor's site goes down and my entire business stops. On top of this we have security and support issues and the slowest and clunkiest software known to humankind.

I'm sure it may be appropriate for some businesses to use a cloud-based approach, but I won't be using them or their approach.
tonymcs@...
8th Aug 2010
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RE: Calling all cloud skeptics

@CobraA1: BINGO! The OP itself oddly arouses skepticism because it lacks sensible, cogent arguments that consider many sides of the various issues involved.
DustyParticles
29th Jan 2011
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RE: Calling all cloud skeptics

I guess there are no SOA skeptics left either.
KenOtwell
4th Aug 2010
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One also has to wonder

If this is just another slick angle to weed but more western workers out of work in the name of global "streamlining." Blah, blah, blah here's your pink slip sonny boy. Time to get your head out of the clouds [!] and look to new frontiers and, well... adios amigo.

The good news is, no one knows where these various cloud initiatives are going in the end. Not Wainewright, not Ballmer, not Appirio packing a lucky rabbit's foot. Ballmer for one is just hedging his bets, as he does with everything else MS related (can you spell OCTOPUS?).

This "slam dunk" these guys are counting on is anything but inevitable or inexorable, at least to the extent they're hoping. But it never hurts to dream.
klumper
4th Aug 2010
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I'm a cloud sceptic

My problem is I can't get to the cloud in real time because my ISP has been having problems the past week; forcing me to engage in batch transfers when it IS up and running. The rest of the time I have to operate in local mode off of the OS and applications loaded on my local PC and network.

Oh damn, I just used the biggest valid arguement against the cloud, didn't I?
Dr_Zinj
4th Aug 2010
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