ÜberTech


iPad and Tablet Market Forecasts for 2012 and Beyond [Charts!]

iPad and Tablet Market Forecasts for 2012 and Beyond [Charts!]

Summary: (Updated April 23, 2012) I've aggregated, crunched and charted the public forecasts of the tech industry's brightest analysts to see where they think the market for iPads, Amazon Kindle Fires and other Android tablets is headed.This includes forecasts from both Wall Street and industry analysts, and is current as of April 23 March 27, 2012.

SHARE:

(Updated April 23, 2012) I've aggregated, crunched and charted the public forecasts of the tech industry's brightest analysts to see where they think the market for iPads, Amazon Kindle Fires and other Android tablets is headed.

This includes forecasts from both Wall Street and industry analysts, and is current as of April 23 March 27, 2012.

It's a follow-on to my post last year, where I also collected forecasts for 2011's iPad and tablet markets.

Interestingly, the consensus on 2011's iPad market with only six weeks left in the year (mid-November) was for 33.5 million iPads sold.

That turned to out to be a 27% undercount (based on the consensus of 42.7 million iPads sold in 2011).

Analysts have continually underestimated iPad and tablet demand. This year alone, many analysts have already raised their estimates for iPad sales twice:

- after the new iPad was unveiled on March 7; - after it was revealed March 20 that 3 million new iPads sold in its first weekend;

Impressive. You know what's even more impressive? The $1.8 billion in revenue Apple reaped in just 3 days (based on an average selling price (ASP) of $600 per iPad).

$1.8 billion is nearly 4x larger the sales of the best global movie opening ever. That would be last summer's Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II, which nabbed $483 million in its first weekend.

Without further chit-chat, here are the charts and graphics. Click to see larger versions and right-click on them to save.

Overall, analysts expect about 63.5 million iPads to be sold this year worldwide. Tech analysts - Gartner, IDC, etc. - were slightly (5%) more bullish than the bank analysts.

63.5 million iPads is up 50% from 42.3 million iPads sold in 2011, which is the average of publicly-announced analyst figures from TrendForce, Strategy Analytics, DisplaySearch, Merrill Lynch and others.

Raging Bull of this crowd? Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, who sees as many as 81 million iPads sold this year. Second place goes to IHS's Rhoda Alexander with 75.3 million.

Dour Bear? Barclay's Ben Reitzes, whose most recent forecast I could find was at 51 million. Here they are again, in columnar form:

And again.

For the total global tablet market, Peter Misek of Jeffries stands out as the Raging Bull, forecasting 158 million shipments. RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky is the Big Bear, seeing about 84 million tablets sold this year.

The average prediction of 109 million is up 68% from 2011's average of 64.8 million tablets sold globally.

Here it is in graphical form. Overall, analysts expect iPads to still control 58% of the tablet market this year.

And what of the long-term? Granted, the number of forecasts for years past 2013 is much smaller; in some cases, it's a lone firm or analyst putting him or herself out there.

But I've still built out a table and stacked bar chart that includes all of the forecasts that I could find. Analysts expect the number of iPads sold to nearly quadruple from 2011 to 2016, and the number of other tablets - Android, Windows 8, RIM - to increase nearly sevenfold. iPads will still hold a tenuous lead over non-Apple tablets by 2016.

And, in stacked bar chart form.

**********

Topics: ÜberTech, Hardware, iPad, Laptops, Mobility, BlackBerry, Tablets

Eric Lai

About Eric Lai

I have tracked technology for more than 15 years, as an award-winning journalist and now as in-house thought leader on the mobile enterprise for SAP. Follow me here at ÜberMobile as well as my even less-filtered musings on Twitter @ericylai

Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily email newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.

Talkback

7 comments
Log in or register to join the discussion
  • Well is going to take sometime to the PCs to dissapear with that numbers!

    Worlwide Population as today according to Wikipedia 7.003 billion.

    Personal Computers sales in 2010 = 351 Millions according to wikipedia.

    Is an innovative device but is still short as Pc??s too.

    Have a nice day!
    reysys
    • Straw Man

      No reasonable person ever said that PCs were going to disappear.
      Falkirk
  • Conservative

    To be honest, apart from Peter Misek, all the tablet forecasts are extremely conservative. Analysts tend to underestimate high growth industries (like in the case of smartphones).

    Detailed analysis here - http://www.tech-thoughts.net
    sameer_singh17
  • The most optimistic is conservative

    The iPad / tablet market is expected to overtake the annual shipments of PCs in the 2015-2017 timeframe. I suspect it will be at the earlier end of the range as tablets take-off in developing countries - many of whom have not adopted PCs in large numbers - where there is more reliance on mobile devices. The bank and tech forecaster have grossly understated this market since launch and the latest round of figures is no different. You'd think with the resources available to these organizations they could do better. Many businesses depend on the accuracy of the forecasts and pay substantial amounts for the information. My frustration led to this post http://techpinions.com/why-the-latest-ipad-forecasts-are-wrong/5996 which picked on IDC - Eric's analysis goes much deeper but basically comes to the same conclusion. In my opinion even the most optimistic forecaster in this group is being conservative. if Apple ships an iPad Mini the numbers will soar. (I believe an iPad Mini will be particularly popular outside the US - esp in Asia). I also predict that Apple's marketshare will remain around 70% - at least in 2012 and maybe longer.
    colincrawford
    • Playing catch-up

      Knowing your long-time association with the PC market (and IDG/IDC) as publisher of Macworld and PCworld, I have a lot of respect for your opinion, Colin. Your techpinions blog, which I read and should've cited, was spot on.

      I wonder what causes the market forecasters to constantly underestimate the tablet market and then be forced to catch up. Is it a subtle form of groupthink?

      Either way, I expect these numbers to move up again, soon. Especially if rumors of a $199 Google Nexus tablet prove true.
      ericylai
  • Nice article

    A very thoughtful and thought provoking article.
    Falkirk
  • iPad is a monster

    These numbers are staggering. Versacase is a fantastic option to go along with the iPad. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1KLGXO0jHc
    ipadwhatnot