Implications of a Vista delay on RIAs

Vista is a monster, it's big, complex, and central to everything Microsoft wants to do. According to people I talk to, WPF won't ship until Vista does. Couple that with the fact that the Expression suite is going to be delayed even further and the "Experience Hub" that Ray Ozzie talked about in his speech last week becomes more of a pipe dream. Vista is the key, and they have to drive adoption by releasing before the Christmas season. If people aren't buying new computers with Vista this season, then Microsoft's estimates are going to be way off.

There is also the looming threat of Adobe's Apollo, which if Microsoft does delay Vista may come to market before WPF. There hasn't been a lot of talk about Apollo, but we should start to hear more in the coming weeks, and it could very well have an impact on what solution people choose to deliver both their RIAs as well as their "internet desktop" applications. If WPF ships before Apollo, as was scheduled, then Microsoft can build on its head start. If not, they risk giving Adobe an entry point. From a tech standpoint, I agree with Marc and Robert, but from an economic/business standpoint, Vista needs to ship. Too many other things are at stake.