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Drive giants plan next gen tech

By | August 30, 2010, 1:29am PDT

Summary: Chip fabs aren’t the only costly factories: next gen disks - which look to include self-assembling nanotech and frikkin’ lasers - is going to be so expensive to develop that drive vendors have agreed to work together to bring it to market. Good for them - and good for us.

Chip fabs aren’t the only costly factories: next gen disks - which look to include self-assembling nanotech and frikkin’ lasers - is going to be so expensive to develop that drive vendors have agreed to work together to bring it to market. Good for them - and good for us.

The problem: get magnetic disks to 10 terabits per square inch. There are promising approaches, but no proven manufacturable answer yet. This is the disk version of rocket science.

EEtimes reports that

Hitachi GST, Seagate Technology and Western Digital have agreed to form a group that will jointly conduct research and define a road map for hard disk drive technology. The group aims to end a long and heated debate about the next big leap in disk technology and is expected eventually to include all drive makers and their component vendors.

The big debate
Hitachi GST, which includes IBM’s former disk operations, wanted to push ahead with patterned media, which, as the name suggests, places nanoscale patterns on the disks. Seagate, the big kahuna in disks, wanted to go ahead with HAMR - Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording.

Both sides fought for their preferred approach, but its been clear that both are really, really hard. We need to do both to keep disk areal density growing at a Moore’s Law-like 40% annual growth.

Today’s magnetic media look like this:

As track size approaches the magnetic grain size, the track starts to bounce around - making it hard to read and write data.

Patterned media fixes that problem by placing the grains in regular order:

The problem: how do you make the patterns on more than 2 billion disk sides a year?

HAMR
Heat, magnetize, cool. Repeat a billion times a second. That makes a strong magnetic charge. The problem: how do you heat a very small area very quickly?

Lasers, of course, but at gigabits per second this is no easy task. And there is the heat dissipation problem.

The Storage Bits take
The disk industry faces huge problems in continuing to increase areal density. Solving the problems in the lab is one thing, but manufacturing over 500 million drives a year using this technology requires incredibly exacting mass production.

If they fail, our ability to keep saving more data at ever lower costs is gone - perhaps forever. Let’s hope this ambitious effort succeeds.

Comments welcome, of course.

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Robin Harris has been messing with computers for over 30 years and selling and marketing data storage for over 20 in companies large and small.

Disclosure

Robin Harris

Robin Harris is a president of TechnoQWAN, a consulting and analyst firm in northern Arizona. He also writes StorageMojo.com, a blog which accepts advertising from companies in the storage industry, and has a 25 year history with IT vendors. He has many industry contacts, many of whom are friends and all of whom he has opinions about. Robin has relationships with many companies in the technology industry. Every company he writes about may have sought to influence his opinion through carefully-crafted marketing messages and self-serving white papers, gifts ranging from desk calendars, t-shirts, lunches and trips as well as analyst or consulting assignments. He also invests in some technology companies. He may accept payment for services in stock as well. Robin discloses financial investments in or client relationships with companies named in Storage Bits. To help readers sort out the gold from the dross in his writings, Robin tries to communicate his reasons as clearly as he can. If you agree, you are intelligent and discerning. If you disagree, well, you disagree. In all cases, Robin encourages readers to subject everything they read, see or hear on the internet or from politicians to some simple questions: * What assumptions are implicit in the world view and judgments of the author? * What, if any, is the factual basis for the opinions the author expresses? * Is it reasonable, logical and clear? Your critical faculties: use ‘em or lose ‘em!

Biography

Robin Harris

Harris has been messing with computers for over 30 years and selling and marketing data storage for over 20 in companies large and small. He introduced a couple of multi-billion dollar storage products (DLT, the first Fibre Channel array) to market, as well as a many smaller ones. Earlier he spent 10 years marketing servers and networks. After leaving corporate life he founded TechnoQWAN, a consulting and analyst firm. He also developed StorageMojo into one of the top storage industry blogs.

Robin writes, consults, coaches and lives among the mountains of northern Arizona.

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RE: Drive giants plan next gen tech
darrensy 14th Sep
Thinking that it would be a nanotechnology development, therefore, if this will be out in the market, I don't think if it is also affordable for consumers.
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Ok i am a little confused here i though the magnetic disk drives are on there way out to be replaced with SSD. So why would company's want to pump tons of captial into more magnetic type of technology. SSD pricing will continue to fall and the technology is just getting started in terms of maturity.
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Contributr
RE: Drive giants plan next gen tech
R Harris 30th Aug 2010
@MLHACK

Because disks are NOT going to be replaced by SSDs. In some applications - yes - but across the board - no way. Disks are way less costly per GB and will be for years to come. Their sequential R/W performance is competitive with SSDs as well.

The one place that SSDs clearly win in performance is random reads. Hybrid disks - see my recent review of the Seagate Momentus XT - will extend the life of disk technology by at least 20 years.

Robin
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@MLHACK: Actually there will be more HDDs shipped in coming years than ever before. SSD pricing will continue to fall but if HDD $/GB fall at the same rate they continue to offer a lower storage cost than SSDS, although not the read-back performance that SSDs have. In fact, there will be more SSDs as well as HDDs shipped in coming years because digital storage is just so useful!
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RE: Drive giants plan next gen tech
city_zen 30th Aug 2010
Couple of questions/thoughts:
-Does this mean that magnetic HDDs aren't dead and the big manufacturers aren't considering a future made only of SSDs?
- What's the theoretical maximum capacity for a magnetic HDD using today's tech? 5 TB? 10 TB? More?
- Larger areal density usually means better speeds. Does this mean that we can expect much better speeds from magnetic HDDs if they succeed with this new technology?
- Lastly, 80% of ZDNet bloggers would have spelled "areal" wrong. Congrats on getting it right happy
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Holocube?
Geedavey 30th Aug 2010
I thought holographic storage was going to get rid of all this spinning disk madness. And what about quantum storage?
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RE: Drive giants plan next gen tech
dszabados 30th Aug 2010
@Geedavey
As with any new technology, there are many challenges that exist. Solid State storage also has its fair set of challenges, but much of that wasn't brought to light especially over the past couple of years as there was so much hype around the subject. In other words, a LOT of promises (and attacks on HDDs), but no real field data.

I wrote a blog about some of the tech challenges with the recent Samsung and Seagate SSD controller collaboration announcement here and it's related to the theme at http://bit.ly/dxmO3D
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Let's also hope
klumper 30th Aug 2010
If they fail, our ability to keep saving more data at ever lower costs is gone - perhaps forever. Let?s hope this ambitious effort succeeds.

Let's also hope this doesn't lead to industry-wide pricing collusion (even if done tacitly), as we have seen with certain other hardware components as of late.
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RE: Drive giants plan next gen tech
dszabados 30th Aug 2010
Seagate's view is that there will remain a place for HDDs, SSDs and Hybrid drives in the future. Robin spoke to the subject well, but I'd like to add a few additional comments based on the questions.

@city_zen, HDDs definitely aren't dead. There is a huge demand for storage that is growing and there's actually not enough NAND to supply all these needs, besides the cost issue. Bottomline is there is a HUGE demand for storage that continues and it's an opportunity for everyone. Regarding the question of theoretical maximum capacity using current perpendicular recording technology, the estimate is that there will be a need to change somewhere between 1 to 1.5TB-per-square inch areal density. Regarding larger density related to higher speeds, I wouldn't generalize the comment this way - there are many elements and "tradeoffs" required between balancing speed/capacity/reliability. In general though, performance remains important to improve, but it does not scale to the same level as capacity has of course.
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Moore's Law
mick@... 30th Aug 2010
Is really only Moore's hypothesis and never stands real scrutiny.
Mick
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It'll take too long to develop
zackers 30th Aug 2010
I remember back in the mid-90's vertical recording was always "just around the corner". That corner took until the early 2000's. In the meantime, the then-current technology ran out of gas and drive capacities almost plateaued out.

This effort will be many times harder. Does the drive industry have the resources and stamina to fund it? While the single industry coalition approach eliminates the duplicate R&D, it also will be much slower to recover from dead-ends. Just look at the heated discussion over which of the two major approaches to use.

And the weaker drive companies might gain access to the technology through the coalition, but will they have the resources to actually build drives with it? This is just going to cause even greater consolidation in the drive industry. There will probably be only two drive companies in the future, one in the US and one in Asia.
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Thinking that it would be a nanotechnology development, therefore, if this will be out in the market, I don't think if it is also affordable for consumers.
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