Optical storage: RIP

By | October 11, 2009, 9:51pm PDT

Summary: TDK’s 10 layer, 320 GB Blu-ray disk is a remarkable technical feat. Too bad it will never be a commercial success. Optical is a dead end - and soon it will just be dead. Here’s why.

TDK recently demo’d an impressive technical achievement: a 10 layer 320 GB optical disk - using standard Blu-ray (BD) drive technology.

Too bad it will never be a commercial success. Optical is at the end of the line.

Why do formats die?
When their reliability, capacity, performance, density and cost aren’t competitive. Which is where optical is now - even 320 GB optical.

You probably don’t remember punched paper tape - all the rage in the 60s and early 70s - but it was popular on 16 bit minicomputers back when 4k of RAM was respectable and 64k unaffordable. It was limited to a few dozen KB of capacity and not reliable in long-term use, so when 240KB 8” floppies arrived in 1973 paper tape was toast.

But floppies couldn’t keep up with the growth of applications and data sets. The 100 MB Zip drive was insanely popular when introduced in 1994, but by 1999 the format was on the way out thanks to cheaper and more capacious CD-R drives.

Despite heroic efforts to increase removable magnetic disk capacities - culminating in 2001 with the 5.7 GB Orb drive - today removable magnetic disk media is dead, killed by cheaper optical and more convenient flash media. Just like magnetic killed paper.

Removable: backup and transfer
Removable media is good for 2 things: data backup and data transfer. Tape dominates removable media backup today with capacities rivaling the largest disks.

Thumb drives long ago replaced floppies for smaller file transfers - “sneakernet” - with external hard drives handling large capacities. With 1 TB 2.5” hard drives, even a writeable 50 GB Blu-ray (BD-R) can’t compete with a small hard drive in transfer speed or capacity.

TDK’s problem
Which gets us to the 10x Blu-ray problem: even if they started selling it there’s no market. Why?

  • Capacity. Successful optical media capacities have been competitive with current disks - CD-ROM in the early 90s; DVD-R in the early 2000s. Multi-layer Blu-ray will never be more than a small fraction of hard drive capacities.
  • Performance. 24x Blu-ray transfer rates are half that of today’s disks. And as capacities increase, disks get faster. Not so with Blu-ray: 48x, if it happens, will be the outer limit.
  • Reliability. Early adopters report that BD burner disks often don’t play on commercial players. That will get fixed, but multi-layer DB-R will have to solve it again.
  • Density. Managing a single piece of media is much simpler than managing 6 or 10. Hard drive density makes them much more convenient.
  • Cost. BD-playing DVD drives haven’t been popular on PCs, and BD burners are way more expensive, as is the media. A FireWire or USB hard drive can be had for less than $100, has much faster access times, higher capacity and faster data transfer. With volume BD-R prices will come down - but where will the volume come from?

Multi-layer BD-R has advantages, especially if current BD players can be updated to use it. But there is no commercial justification for distributing content on 320 GB optical disks and there isn’t likely to be one.

Hollywood has a real chance to make 3D work, but 3D HD movies will fit fine on BD. Put a 3D “Band of Brothers” on a single disk? OK, but really, getting up every 50 minutes to change disks isn’t so hard, is it?

The Storage Bits take
New optical formats will get introduced - like 750 MB Zip drives and 5.7 GB Orb drives did - but they’ll stumble around the fringes of consumer acceptance before a quiet death. Many of the same forces that are killing BD - downloading, upconverting, cost - are closing in on optical media in general.

DVDs will be around for years - even as CD-Rs still are - but the focus is shifting to online storage and local disks. The industry has yet to crack the code on massive home disk storage, but that day is coming.

You’ll buy HD 3D content online, download it, store it in your digital library, and watch it when and where you want. If your house floods your content suppliers will let you download again. Who needs the hassle to burn disks?

The one remaining piece is for hard drive vendors to get serious about building archive-quality hard disks. I love their technology, but they aren’t the most forward looking group.

Courteous comments welcome, of course. Anyone want to buy a vintage USB Zip drive?

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Topics

Robin Harris has been messing with computers for over 30 years and selling and marketing data storage for over 20 in companies large and small.

Disclosure

Robin Harris

Robin Harris is a president of TechnoQWAN, a consulting and analyst firm in northern Arizona. He also writes StorageMojo.com, a blog which accepts advertising from companies in the storage industry, and has a 25 year history with IT vendors. He has many industry contacts, many of whom are friends and all of whom he has opinions about. Robin has relationships with many companies in the technology industry. Every company he writes about may have sought to influence his opinion through carefully-crafted marketing messages and self-serving white papers, gifts ranging from desk calendars, t-shirts, lunches and trips as well as analyst or consulting assignments. He also invests in some technology companies. He may accept payment for services in stock as well. Robin discloses financial investments in or client relationships with companies named in Storage Bits. To help readers sort out the gold from the dross in his writings, Robin tries to communicate his reasons as clearly as he can. If you agree, you are intelligent and discerning. If you disagree, well, you disagree. In all cases, Robin encourages readers to subject everything they read, see or hear on the internet or from politicians to some simple questions: * What assumptions are implicit in the world view and judgments of the author? * What, if any, is the factual basis for the opinions the author expresses? * Is it reasonable, logical and clear? Your critical faculties: use ‘em or lose ‘em!

Biography

Robin Harris

Harris has been messing with computers for over 30 years and selling and marketing data storage for over 20 in companies large and small. He introduced a couple of multi-billion dollar storage products (DLT, the first Fibre Channel array) to market, as well as a many smaller ones. Earlier he spent 10 years marketing servers and networks. After leaving corporate life he founded TechnoQWAN, a consulting and analyst firm. He also developed StorageMojo into one of the top storage industry blogs.

Robin writes, consults, coaches and lives among the mountains of northern Arizona.

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Ah BUT!
d.s.williams Updated - 12th Nov 2009
We are, and have for a while, been in the middle of a recession (globally, not even just in one country or continent), which we weren't when DVD was launched. So a direct comparison is rather unfair. IN THEORY, Blu-Ray should be having a much harder time as people's spare cash for entertainment etc. is more limited. And despite this, BD is doing better!

Go figure...
0 Votes
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Vintage Zip Drive
nathanmiller 11th Oct 2009
I've actually got a Zip 100 SCSI drive sitting around with a ton of disks. Cost a ton when it was new, but now it's just an antique paperweight...
0 Votes
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Vintage Zip 100 Drive
Professor8 12th Oct 2009
Actually, though I have an internal Zip 100 drive, extracted from a
boat, er, uh, Windoze box, I have been looking for an enclosure/
adapter or external USB or FireWire Zip 100 drive so that I can
recover some old data.
0 Votes
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zip drive enclosure
nfiertel 12th Oct 2009
There are hundreds of enclosures available. Go to
Tigerdirect.com on line or macsales,com for appropriate
enclosures..They cost about 40 bucks. after you transfer
what you want, stick a ATA 66 drive in the enclosure and
it serves a newer use. Remember to buy the appropriate
external box and not a SATA one. Be very gentle on
inserting the zips into the drive as the tiny heads are
easily munged and then all is lost...N
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Vintage Zip 100 Drive
BoneLazy 13th Oct 2009
I have one here in Australia if you want to pay for shipping.

And about 10 disks. I would be more than happy to send it. I hate throwing Good but outdated tech out. Hence the Mess.

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Vintage Zip 100 Drive
Dirk6665 13th Oct 2009
I have been looking for an enclosure/
adapter or external USB or FireWire Zip 100
drive so that I can recover some old data.


If the drive is IDE you can use one of those
USB-to-IDE cables/converters. I use one for
extracting data off my ZIP-100 disks. You
don't necessarily need an enclosure but if you
want to be fancy you can probably find an
external IDE enclosure to fit it. I think it's
a 3.5 standard-size device, but you may want to
double-check that.
0 Votes
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Re: Vintage Zip Drive
CTOSea 12th Oct 2009
Ah yes, the zip drive! I too, have those: two
SCSI and one parallel. But my claim to fame was
having SyQuest drives. Still have the original
drives (all SCSI), in capacities of 44 MB, 88
MB, and 200 MB (yes, MB!). This would be
equivalent to having multi-tera byte storage
today, but at the cost of petabyte wink Now,
that was storage capacity!! It was the only
popularly accepted method, at that time, to
move large files, such as graphics and desktop
publishing.
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I still have my old syquest drive!
Pete "athynz" Athens 12th Oct 2009
125MB was hard to beat back in the day... Now it's just gathering dust in my closet.
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Real Original SyQuest drives were 5MB
rattlesnake0407 12th Oct 2009
I had them back in the early 80's; two 5MB SyQuest removable drives in a box connected to a TRS-80 Model III.
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LS-120/240
WarhavenSC 12th Oct 2009
I have an LS-120 drive, which should have been the next Zip drive. Came out around the same time as Zip, held 120 MB on a 3.5" form factor, and was backwards compatible with standard floppy disks. In fact, you could use it to format a standard floppy to hold 20 MB of space instead of the usual 1.44 MB.

They also, briefly, sold a 240 MB version. Interestingly, it was originally developed by Iomega, then abandoned and sold to 3M, but Iomega already had so much market share with the Zip drive that by the time 3M tried to push in with the LS-120 drives, it was too late.

Shame...
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I was disappointed...
Thunderbuck 12th Oct 2009
I think you might be confusing "Iomega" with "Imation". The latter was not a company but was 3M's brand for their storage products.

I thought the LS-120 was a fantastic idea. Until I actually owned one. It was easily the flakiest, least-reliable storage medium I've ever encountered. I had driver issues with both Windows 2000 and XP, and I found disks to be unreadable after only 3 months storage.

I had to chuck it.
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True in my experience...
JasonJD48 12th Oct 2009
With all types of floppies
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Better in theory than in reality
d.s.williams 13th Oct 2009
Interesting to finally read of someone else who owns up to having had an LS-120.

I personally thought it was a fantastic idea to have a disk + drive that offered the capacity of a Zip Drive with the backwards compatibility to be able to use normal floppy disks, but of course the usefulness was severely limited by the fact that they were (a) so rare and (b) not portable. Neither could you expect to find an LS-120 drive wherever you went, like an ordinary floppy drive, nor could you take the LS-120 drive with you like a Zip Drive, so I never really did anything with it other than storing backups. I still have it, and the disks too, somewhere, but it was barely used.
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Too little, too late
dave@... 13th Oct 2009
LS-120 would have stood a chance if it had come out before ZIP... but not after. It just didn't improve over ZIP enough for anyone to care. But moreso, the world had already moved on to CD-ROM and CD-R by then.

The problem was that LS-120 was reactionary more than innovative... it was the floppy disc people pushing for a ZIP alternative pretty much only after ZIP had conquered that little segment of the market. Which was personal backup, sneakernet, etc. No one was going to distribute software on either media, because there was never enough market penetration.

Again, a place where CD was a clear winner... tapping a huge volume driver like CD, DVD, BD... that's always a win for a personal computer medium.
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LS-120 never had a chance
Worth2Cents 21st Oct 2009
iomega sealed contracts with Dell, Gateway, and Micron to sell ZIP drives as options in their setups, which were the top three computer builders at the time. Even if 3M hooked up with HP and Packard Bell, they couldn't dent the others' market share.

Thus LS-120 went the way of Beta Max and Atari 2600, after VHS and NES.
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Vintage ZIP drive
miker00lz 12th Oct 2009
believe it or not i still use my parallel Zip 100 drive now and then. quick and easy storage for small amounts of data, works like a charm even after 10 years.
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ZIP is good.
NBSF 12th Oct 2009
ZIP cartridges are more convenient since they stack flat or stand on edge, are smaller than CD jewel cases (and forget those thin horrors that can't accommodate an edge title!)and don't have to be constantly opened and closed, cases cluttering up the work space.
I wish my internal ZIP 100 drive still worked but a too aggressive vacuuming tweaked the heads and sadly I finally heard the infamous "click of death". Fortunately I have also an external drive. ZIPs also fit in a shirt pocket.
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I used to have a Click of death webpage
greatnewproducts 12th Oct 2009
I used to have a page that talked about Iomega Zip drives. Since I had mine registered (I still have it, external scsi) I received a notice that I was part of a group lawsuit. At the end we received a coupon. Here is one of the links to a zip drive chart:

http://www.tfn.net/~asotelo/drivechart.html
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My Zip Drive killed my computer
gallde 13th Oct 2009
The Zip 100 internal drive in my content-transfer computer developed an internal short that killed the power supply, as well as two others before I realized it was the drive. All that power-supply swapping hosed the hard drive, too.
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Zip drive
barnicks@... 13th Oct 2009
I had a zip drive kill a perfectly good Compaq e500 laptop. (OK, not state of the art, but good enough for an 80 year old using only email).

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ZIPs also fit in a shirt pocket....
LittleFishy 12th Oct 2009
So does a USB drive...
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Stopping the Spin!
RodPera Updated - 12th Oct 2009
What about storage technology that doesn't spin? New prosumer HD video cameras have solid-state (RAM-type) storage sticks with ginormous storage capacity, so when do/why haven't we shifted from discs that eventually stop spinning (i.e. hard drive's deadly "stiction" and the limited capacity of optical) over to non-moving data storage/access? Seems like the most logical and practical next step...or am I completely misguided? INPUT PLEASE! Thank you!
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Literal and metaphorical. The reason SSDs haven't replaced magnetic yet is because it is still too expensive. Nor is it clear it can catch up, since the price of magnetic has been falling fast.
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Vintage Zip Drive
Xnert 12th Oct 2009
I'm still trying to get around to hooking up my SCSI 100 Mb Zip drive. It's the only rewritable external storage medium I have, for use with my VAXstation... wink
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Optical storage is not a dead end
Lerianis10 11th Oct 2009
SSD drives are never going to catch on for some big
things, like PC games, programs, etc.

As to hard drives... they are good for many things, but
for ARCHIVING pictures, music, etc..... optical formats
are still the best and are what I use for all my
pictures.
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Contributr
So you believe the optical vendors?
R Harris 11th Oct 2009
They mean well, but there are many things that can and do go wrong
with recordable optical media.

Good luck.

Robin
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Media
StoneSatellite 12th Oct 2009
I have had rec. optical media that went south after less than a month, although that has been many years ago.

I have media to this day that is around 12 yrs. old and still spins up and reads perfectly. A company I worked for up until recently stores older data that has to be kept for a few years on DVD.

I think it's a safe bet that optical storage will be around for many years to come, but like the FDD, less prevalent as time and technology moves forward.
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Right, but remanence in digital storage is becoming more ephemeral every day.

I have some 78s which are about 80 years old and their data has remained pretty much intact over that time. Moreover, if they are looked after well the data will last indefinitely--probably hundreds of years.

Similarly, a Kodachrome slide, if maintained properly, has an estimated life of over 200 years, probably a lot longer. Right, that 75+-year-old technology from circa 1935 which puts images on bits of 24x36mm celluloid at a resolution of over 100 lines per mm [2400x3600 pixels], is--as far as image resolution and quality goes--still state of the art when compared to CCD quality. It is extremely reliable and very long-lived.

Books and papyrus have even much more longevity.

With every successive generation of both analog and digital storage technology comes a lowering of archive storage life. The classic case of the US census information for 1960 having been lost to digital storage is a good example. Another is where VHS videotapes of babies are being dragged out at 21st birthdays by parents only to find that in many cases tape remanence has decayed away to noise. Had those 'baby' movies been made on Kodachrome they would be as fresh as the day they were made. Ektachrome film that 'replaced' Kodachrome has already had serious issues with fading (ie loss of image)--the replacement is simply not as good.

BTW, magnetic remanence of traditional magnetic media decays away at rates of up to 5% per annum. Not good odds for long-term storage methinks.

The fact is that in the headlong race for storage density almost no one has worried about how permanent that storage is. Anyone who would choose a magnetic hard disk to store images in preference to Kodachrome for over a very long time of say 20-50 years or so would have to be either ignorant or mad. The loss of permanence of electronic archiving of information is a very serious issue that our here-and-now society has not and still does not seem to care much about.

Here's a good summary of the problem:

http://www.uky.edu/~kiernan/DL/hedstrom.html

However there may be some light on the horizon for a much more permanent form of long-term storage in the form of carbon nanotubes:

http://www.physorg.com/news162061022.html

Will thousands of times more storage than present hard disks store and a billion years remanence life do for a little while?

Hope so. wink



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No matter what the storage media is ...
mwagner@... 12th Oct 2009
... it degrades.

Those ancient writings on papyrus have survived largely because (1) they were first written down by peoples living in arid lands where the forces of nature could not easily decitmate the media and (2) because people believed that the material was important enough to copy before the media was too degraded to reproduce.

Each generation has to determine for itself which materials were important enough to reproduce for future generations and each has chosen the most accurate and long-lasting media available to them.

The difference is that advances in storage technology are now happening so quickly that in less than 200 years we have gone from the printed word and painted canvas to film for images (kodachrome) and sound on glass (78 RPM records) and then to bits - recorded on magnetic surfaces or in bubbles imbedded in plastic.

The volume if information stored is staggering by comparison.

The critical part of the process is determining how much of this now voluminous amount of data is of great enough value to copy to the latest generation of storage media.

This is a never ending process which allows each generation a view into the past through the eyes of the authors of the most important accomplishments of the human race.

We know these were important accomplishments only because somebody believed they should be preserved.
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1000 year storage
Carrie Johnson 12th Oct 2009
So just use oak gall ink & write it on well made goat skin parchment?
voila, 1000+ years storage in just about any half way reasonable storage
conditions, including humidity, without recopying.

Think I'll start my scribe company?pergamena is already making the
parchment.
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1000 year storage - cute!
jrbeaman 12th Oct 2009
Try sending a copy of it to 100 people.
How long does it take to create a document that you can copy? How much is the equipment to do so? How fast can people get a copy? How much storage can be put on paper? How much space does it require?

All of these questions are important. There are still HUGE vaults of mag tape used as backup. If you used a terabyte chip to replace them, think of the above questions and tell me how paper, tape, or CD's can compete?

Enjoy your parchment....
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Take a picture
worldnick 12th Oct 2009
You take a picture of the parchment or build a machine that reads it optically and let each generation build and update their own machines. The point is that one copy exists. The data density probably won't be that great, but there is no need to rain on anyone's parade. Your mag tape is far more delicate and no biological creature could read it without technical help.
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For examples of even Longer Storage
mejohnsn 12th Oct 2009
look at the stone and yes, even dried mud tablets keeping records safe for 5000 years. The capacity sucks, though.
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You scoff, but...
Worth2Cents 21st Oct 2009
We know the Dead Sea Scrolls were written 2,000 years ago. How long have the Pyramids been around? 8,000 years? Cave drawings? Even longer - 20,000-30,000 years?

Here we are with the most amount of data ever collected in all of human history, and we can't guarantee its longevity pass the next Windows upgrade.

I don't know, Dude. Let's put your terabyte chip out on the English countryside and see if it lasts as long as Stonehenge.
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1000 year storage
scottl@... 12th Oct 2009
Have to check with my commodities broker for the latest monk futures :P The very reason Gutenberg was put down by the elite The ability to copy information using a simpler method
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Your points are good and in principle I agree with all of them. I would however like to raise some specific issues that make digitally stored data very vulnerable.

(I also wish to raise some very specific issues about the shortsighted approach to standards have plagued digital optical storage development. I will however post these comments later (hopefully tomorrow) as I've run out of time here.)

You're right, information always degrades. ...That's entropy for you! Sometimes I wish I'd never heard of Ludwig Boltzmann or Claude Shannon and that I could live in blissful ignorance of entropy's consequences, nevertheless entropy and information loss are central to my earlier post. In essence, archiving of data and its long-term integrity and survival requires, as physical laws dictate, that work be committed to keep that order.

Moreover, that slide from order into disorder and randomness is exacerbated when users don't actively participate to counter the process, although there are notable exceptions as you correctly point out 'We know these were important accomplishments only because somebody believed they should be preserved.'

I'd add however, that the perception of what a bygone culture considers valuable and ought to be kept for posterity may be totally different to that of the culture that unearths the information centuries later. Today, our archaeologists have far wider interests in Roman Civilization than the Romans would have deliberately kept for posterity. This of course is the great conundrum of data storage: how much information can be discarded before the data is effectively editorialized (or distorted to a point where full reconstruction is not possible), and how much does one keep before being overwhelmed? Information, coding theory and the laws of entropy may say one thing, practical reality, however, will most probably be vastly different.

When referring to the ephemeral nature of digital storage, I was endeavoring to make two key points:

(a) That for every given technology there are limits on the storage density, and the closer we push towards these limits the more the tendency for stored data to 'leak away', and;

(b) modern electronic data is almost exclusively stored in machine-readable form, that it exists in this non-human-readable form makes it more vulnerable. Machine obsolescence, stored format obsolescence, use of proprietary and unpublished formats, the widespread lack of interest in data storage standards and the lack of a wide or universal commitment to open standards, together with the fact that we humans cannot physically see the ageing process (as we would with say a book or work of art), often combine so as to effectively stop us intervening and protecting our data until it's too late.


Storage Density and Granularity
---------------------------------------

Papyrus has both longevity of physical form and is human-readable, that's to say it has an excellent biological interface. These properties confer storage durability but its course granularity means its storage density is intrinsically very low. Nevertheless, deterioration of the physical media through time, its imperfect translation into modern languages together with an incomplete understanding of its original idiomatic or contextual meaning within the culture in which it was written all ensure that its contents are subject to entropic information loss.

In contrast, modern digital data storage exhibits intrinsic differences, fine granularity for instance, thus, we expect and do see different issues and problems with this type of storage technology than say when compared to the much older papyrus example. I'll discuss issues with modern high-density hard disk drives first as they are an exemplary example of such storage (although optical storage, with its similar issues, isn't far behind).


The Hard Disk Drive: an Example of Problematic Data Storage
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

As I see it, these are the key issues:

1. As mentioned, information stored on disk drives cannot be interpreted directly by biological sensors, eyes etc.; thus our inability to be able to directly interact with the data makes it more vulnerable (it's an out of sight out of mind issue).

2. Moreover, disk drive data cannot be interpreted without a considerable amount of sophisticated state-of-the-art technology: precision drive mechanics, head amplifiers, data separators, error-correction electronics etc. Even then, this 'raw' data needs the additional processing of a PC and all the paraphernalia that goes with it including software, word processors, spreadsheets etc. before a human can correctly interpret it. Only one aspect of this 'decoding' chain has to go wrong and the data cannot be interpreted at all.

3. Disk drives have a very short life in the grand scheme of things, so does the PC and its 'interpretation' software. Unless owners take active steps to ensure the continuing viability of the data, it will be lost and or its integrity violated.

4. Although hard disks have error correction, they do not have redundancy built in (error correction is necessary for drives to actually function the way they do but it is useless if the drive electronics fails). For example, there are no drives on the market with inbuilt redundancy such as dual head actuators, dual electronics, dual power supplies etc. all of which would operate totally independently of each other. Nor are there any drives made which would enable the user to trade bit density and speed for increased reliability let alone also have dual-hardware redundancy.

4.1 Here's an illustration everyone should understand. A 7200RPM 1TB drive made with dual actuators, dual independent electronics and the ability to lower the storage density to say 300MB (by resetting manufacturer's low-level formatting) and perhaps even the ability to lower its rotational speed to say 5600RPM, would be a much more reliable product, and I believe a very saleable one at that (albeit being more expensive). Imagine a Windows setting where you could set a drive reliability factor based on the type of data you are storing. There is no fundamental technical limitation preventing the manufacture of such a drive. That they do not exist backs up my assertion that our here-and-now society doesn't care too much about data integrity or its longevity.

4.2 That not many users care about data integrity or data archiving also backs up the similar point made by Robin Harris:

'The one remaining piece is for hard drive vendors to get serious about building archive-quality hard disks. I love their technology, but they aren't the most forward looking group.'

Drive manufactures aren't the most forward looking of groups because no none demands them to be. The only thing most buyers seem to care about is raw data capacity and concomitantly manufacturers respond by cramming as many gigabits per square inch of platter area as state-of-the art engineering permits. The common attitude is one of 'hang reliability, we'll worry about that if or when the disk crashes.'

4.3 It's a paradox that users have such a cavalier attitude to storing their data on vulnerable disk drives and that they don't give a damn about data archiving (backups) either, yet a high level of paranoia exists about viruses and other data security issues. These positions are almost diametrically opposed.

4.4 I have just about come to the conclusion that subtle marketing by disk drive manufactures together with an underreporting of drive failures accounts for the former attitude, lots of hype and FUD from antivirus manufacturers and the billion-dollar security industry accounts for the high profile of the latter. (I'm not saying that viruses and security issues don't exist, of course they do; but my own practical experience has been that hard disk failures--of which I've had many--have been, by far, a much greater threat to my data than have viruses and other security threats.)

5. As mentioned, hard disks sell on data density. However, if one examines the raw data coming directly off a modern disk drive head with an oscilloscope one is amazed at what one sees; recognizing data amongst the noise is nigh on impossible. In traditional engineering terms we'd say that the signal to noise ratio is about zilch. With such high data densities, it is only through the most sophisticated heads, head amplifier design and cleaver data separation techniques that these drives actually work at all. Trusting one's data to such fine margins without any hardware redundancy or proper backup procedures is quite a gamble, yet many--probably most of us operate this way for most of the time and we do so with little or no thought as to the consequences.

6. Because of the fiercely competitive nature of hard disk manufacture, manufacturers hide the exact nature of the way your data is laid down on the platter surface; it is both very proprietary and secret. This used not be the case, for example, Shugart Associates/Corporation produced beautifully clear and concise reference-grade manuals for its 8" floppy disk drives. These manuals were so good that I still keep a set on my office bookshelf to show staff how things were and still ought to be done. Today, Seagate Technologies, having long since morphed from its former Shugart identity, not only provides precious little information about its hard disks, but also has been caught out obfuscating information over firmware bugs in its 7200.11 hard disk drives. My, my, how things have changed for the worse over the past 20 or so years.

6.1 Proprietary and secret error correction and low-level formatting systems, whether justifiable or not, are a dangerous threat to data integrity. Not only do they obfuscate the actual storage process and thus thwart or make any independent analysis of a drive's dependability or long term reliability possible but also they can significantly complicate data recovery processes.

6.2 Drive manufactures don't advertise the fact that when you commit your storage to their disk drives that the only entity to know about the storage process is the manufacturer and it is not going to tell anyone--let alone a longsuffering user whose disk has crashed--about the way these storage processes work. We consumers still buy hard disk drives without even a whimper of complaint (as we've been conditioned by marketing propaganda to think that the current configuration is the only way in which these devices can exist). Moreover, the technical press, ZDNet et al, rarely give time to such 'mundane' matters of hard disk reliability; security holes in M$'s Internet Explorer are much more juicy and exciting news. sad



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archival storage
Mike_ 17th Oct 2009
I occasionally convert disk formats for people, one of my first jobs was migrating the labs data from 5.25" disks to 3.5. Thee are several vintage computer collectors than can still read the old media, I have the drives going back to 8" floppies.

One of the questions for people with data on older media is it worth the cost to migrate it. I know of one institution that still has an old Vax to read tapes from years gone by. They can not justify the cost of a summer student to copy it to DVD since when the time comes to read it DVD may not be supported and they would have to convert it again.

I once came across a report on the durability of the various media and paper was still the winner. Printing archives in an OCR readable font was the best option.

I've had way more hard drive failures than virus attacks, haven't NOTICED a CD failure yet, and don't have the space to store it on paper.
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Is a reader of the data...
arminw 12th Oct 2009
still available? I have some old 8 inch floppies, which even if they were
still good, cannot be read because I don't know of any reader still
available. I'm sure there still is somewhere, but the data isn't that
important to try and hunt one up.
Ink on paper is still the longest lived technology and it requires only
human eyeballs to read. Century-old photographs are still around. In
the year 4000, historians at that time will know less about our time than
we know about the Roman Empire.
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Less? Where have you been?
jrbeaman Updated - 12th Oct 2009
"In the year 4000, historians at that time will know less about our time than we know about the Roman Empire. "

Not when you can watch actual video of the daily lives of today, and some I'd rather not preserve, or save.

Sorry, we already know too much about today. The trick will be wading thru all the crap to find anything of value.
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Just another trade-off ...
mwagner@... 12th Oct 2009
Yes, it is true that the only technology needed to read 1000-year-old parchment is the human eye. But could that information be comprehended by today's reader?

NO! A great deal of information is missing from those lines written on parchment.

For instance, in the last 400 years (the King James Bible was first published in 1611) the English language has changed so dramatically that understanding those words, even printed on parchment, is extremely difficult.

It took scholars decades to accumulate enough information to accurately translate 1000+ year-old texts - written by hand on parchment to create the KJV Bible. Those documents are fraught with so many errors that since 1611 thousands of other scholars, spending similar amounts of time, looking at newly discovered parchements from the third and fourth centuries still disagree on what those words REALLY MEAN.

Nothing printed on paper today will still be around in 1000 years and most 100 year-old-books are too fragile to handle - even when they have been stored in a controlled environment. 1000-year-old parchments are far more fragile - dramaticlaly limiting access to those materials.

We have traded affordability for durability but in doing so we have granted access of information to literally billions of people through technology.

The human race now doubles its accumulated knowledge every 15 years or so and nearly all of that knowledge is accessible on the web. As technology leads to lower costs more information becomes more accessible to more people.

Could a global catatrophy make access to this information extremely difficult to get? Yes (just like recovering data from your 8" floppies) but the likelihood of that shrinks every day as the human race learn more about the world around us.

If there was anything of great value on your 8" floppies, you would have moved it to more modern media while you still could - just as those scholars of antiquity copied and re-copied the words of their predecessors before their original parchments were too worn to read.

I am quite sure that 4,000 years from now more will be preserved from the twenty-first century than is preserved today from the first century.
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I agree about the year 4000
TranMan 12th Oct 2009
I am one of those people who DO, "remember punched paper tape". So many things have come and gone in my lifetime (I was born in 1953), that I cannot imagine what might exist in the year 2100, much less 4000.

When I was a little kid, we had 78 RPM records (45's were a pretty new thing--stereo was unheard of). Who has a record player today? Cassettes replaced records for a while, but have pretty much disappeared.

Then CDs came along, but I'm sure in 20 years, you will not be able to find a CD player unless it's in a museum.

There were home movies (film), but you would be pretty hard-pressed to find a projector for them today.

In the data realm, I've lived through 7-track tape, 9-track tape, head-per-track disks, Diskpacks, floppies (8, 5 1/4, 3 1/2), Zip, DAT, PDs, DLT, and probably half a dozen that I can't think of right now.

I've programmed in several now-obsolete languages.

I wrote my first program when I was 18 (less than 40 years ago).

So if we've come this far since then, and things are changing faster, instead of more slowly, I think it's a pretty safe bet that we will have rendered obsolete at least 10 more generations of storage by the year 2100.
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But no, you see it coming..
dave@... 13th Oct 2009
What you're describing is called "format rot"... we lose the easy ability to understand old formats.

But no, there won't be that problem in 4000CE, because we understand this problem today. And because formats die slow, not cataclysmically.. barring end-of-civilization catastrophes, anyway.

Everyone understands that "floppy disc" is a dead format. Any yet, despite the fact that they're not a built-on on any PC these days, they are still easily available. You can get USB floppy drives.... any computer can use them.

Digital data is easily migrated. I mean, think about it... a 360KB floppy or 40MB hard drive from the mid-80s... not much of a problem to deal with on a modern computer.

Future historians won't simply have access to our data (and find it all fits on one chip), but they'll have a record, following data migration, of what we though to be important, what we though to be disposable.
watch out for fire!!!
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Archival CDs
WarhavenSC Updated - 12th Oct 2009
They mean well, but there are many things that can and do go wrong with recordable optical media.

But far less than magnetic disk or SSD, and archival grade CD/DVDs have a much longer shelf life because they don't suffer bit rot like a disk drive or SSD.

[edit]

But then again, you could use archival grade HDDs to avoid this. Maybe you're right about optical media.

Question, though, what about hologrpahic optical media?
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ITs' not you believe the optical Vendors, Its that Optical is Most Reliable to date. Hard drives crash and Burn. I've had two Hard drives to crash this year in the span of two months. Before then I never had a hard drive to Crash Since I've owned my first Mac Se/30. Once the information has been to that CD, it there the Drive may eventually. fail but a replacement should read them provided you didn't put a good CD/DVD (with info) in the bad drive.

I've tried backing up some of my music collection to Mozy and to iDisk Backup and 5 songs 5 mb or less took 8 hours on a 1 Mb DSL Line. I use to have a Travan Tape Drive but the tape want very large,. the tapes went bad frequently and the tapes wer almost as expensive as buying 500 gb Hard drive is now.

Until the day everyone in the USE uses some form of SATA Hard Drives and have FIOS connections in every house. Optical will be around for a Long, long, long, time.

SD cards like in Camera, and USB Thumb drives. have a finite limit and even on the new solid state Drives like are being used in the Macbook air and others. The are terribly expensive, and if you attempt to optimize the drive you actually end up reducing its useful life dramatically.
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SD limits?
jrbeaman 12th Oct 2009
"SD cards like in Camera, and USB Thumb drives. have a finite limit"

Uh, with the new terabyte chips coming out, how are they limited? I have retrieved them from a washed pair of pants, and they work. Try that with a sata or optical.

$40 for 8GB with no 'drive' needed for the media, faster burn time, and higher densities coming all the time, I believe you are chasing a bad technology.

Please explain "The are terribly expensive, and if you attempt to optimize the drive you actually end up reducing its useful life dramatically. " as it does not compute.

Sorry, but optical disk is going the way of the Zip drive, as explained above.
The point is not "if" but "when". Computers advance fast and many different components have already come and gone and the ones that are still around is only because they have proved to be incredibly up scalable at a reasonable price.

Zip drives are a lousy comparison and everyone knows it. Zip drives had a very short popularity because they largely came in to replace floppy drives but size limitations proved to be a huge drawback when optical drives were marching in with full force at significantly improved capacity.

Anyone can predict that optical drives are on the way out. Practically all components are on their way out with computers, the question is when.

In the fast paced world of computer technology, the exit day of optical drives is "not so soon" and there has been not one single thing to indicate that optical drives are anything more then a format with its days numbered, not a format that is on the verge of extinction.
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You said ...
mwagner@... 12th Oct 2009
"Until the day everyone in the USE uses some form of SATA Hard Drives and have FIOS connections in every house. Optical will be around for a Long, long, long, time."

I don't know what you call a "long, long, long, time" but ...

The expected lifetime of CD media is about 20 years.

Twenty-years ago, in 1989, 25MHz processors were the norm. These systems had 8MB of RAM and hard drives holding less than 100MB. They all sported 1.44MB 3.5" floppy disk drives. The CD-R specification did not exist yet.

Today DVD+/-RW is the norm and BD-RW is a very costly option offering 25GB to 50GB of storage. That's over 50,000 times greater than the original 3.5" floppy drive specification of 720KB!

In the mean time, HDDs have gone from 100MB to 1TB or more for about the same $100. In those days, $1.00 per MB was the goal. Today's TB drives offer 1GB for TEN CENTS!

The point is that while the storage density per dollar of DVD media continues to rise, the storage density per dollar of HDD media is rising much faster. Today, BD-RW media costs 40 cents per GB but HDD media costs 10 cents per GB and is rising while demand for BD-RW media is still lukewarm.
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There are so many things that can go wrong
Snooki_smoosh_smoosh 12th Oct 2009
with other solutions such as hot-swappable servers, that sync over the internet and act as a fail-over hot-site. But it also doesn't mean that a company is going to risk its entire financial future on one medium. I don't know what world you come from, but data disaster recovery can make or break a business.
That is why so many companies still have tape back ups of their systems.

And movies have not made a significant shift to the web based services as of yet, and as more ISP's continue to restrict bandwidth, and the RIAA/MPAA keep on with DRM, people will continue to buy the trusty DVD/BD.

The only thing going on here is wishful thinking.
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But the Same goes for Magnetic
mejohnsn 12th Oct 2009
There are lots of things that can and do go wrong with magnetic media, too. So also for flash. The real question is which applications have greater tolerance for the things that go wrong with each technology. Your article does not address this.
Certainly there are a number of things that can, and do go wrong with optical media, but there have always been things that can and do go wrong with computers generally, and that doesn't appear to be changing any time soon.

Given the very high reliability for optical media in general, its hardly worth mentioning that there are things that can and will go wrong with optical media when there are so many components that that have a similar or worse failure rate. The great thing about optical media is that because most optical media (blue-ray excepted) is so cheap its usually no issue to check what you have burned for readability and in the event of a bad burn simply re burning on a fresh disk. It cost pennies so the only real significant cost might be the time involved on those unusual occasions when the burn failed on the first attempt.

The other nice thing about optical media is the sense of permanence it brings to what you are archiving. While there are many tales about the life span of optical media one thing does seem certain to most people who burn there files to an optical disk. That is that its not very susceptible to being erased or accidental written over. Thats worth something to most people. Sure, reusable media has some great value, thumb drives are a fantastic asset to be sure; but many times people just want a cheap method of some relatively permanent archiving and DVDs fit that bill nicely.

For that matter its not difficult to see how a 320GB blue ray disk might prove to be very handy. Just due to the fact that a 320GB disk can hold so much, its almost obvious that the ability to make a relatively permanent copy of vast numbers of all kinds and sorts of files that can easily be transported to a family member or friends home to play there is attractive. Its a lot easier then hauling around an outboard HD. Not to mention that as a backup media generally its a very sweet idea. But cost is the real factor. Such a disk would have to sell at such a low price to make it worth while it doesn't appear likely that such a disk would ever see much use of any kind unless blue ray media really plummet in price.

Predicting the eventual downfall of optical media is much like predicting the downfall of anything in computing. Its perhaps the fastest moving field of technology there is and changes always abound in rapid succession, so predicting the fall of anything linked to computing is not a question of "if" but a question of when. I suggest that in making your prediction one has then got to assume you are predicting this will happen in the near future, like withing a few short years at the most. Otherwise its not newsworthy because anyone can predict that optical drives are not going to be the storage media of choice forever in such a rapidly advancing area of technology.

I also suggest that there are still far to many reasons to expect optical media to fold in the next couple of years. Its just way to convenient and inexpensive to write it off at this point. One day it will disappear like so many computer systems and components that came before it, but thats not likely to be next year, the year after that or even a year or two after that.
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Ah BUT!
d.s.williams Updated - 12th Nov 2009
We are, and have for a while, been in the middle of a recession (globally, not even just in one country or continent), which we weren't when DVD was launched. So a direct comparison is rather unfair. IN THEORY, Blu-Ray should be having a much harder time as people's spare cash for entertainment etc. is more limited. And despite this, BD is doing better!

Go figure...

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