The consensus here seems to be that Apple will garner about 65% of the market, leaving The Other Guys to fight over the remaining third. Considering that there are some serious bruisers in that crowd, including HP, Samsung, and Dell, it is unlikely that any one vendor will get more than 10%. The vast majority of those "hundreds of Android tablets on the way" we keep hearing about will be lucky to get one-tenth of one percent of the business each. Most will probably die in the crib when their makers realize what they're up against.
No one but Apple is going to make money on these devices in 2011. Establishing a beachhead in this business is going to require a vendor to budget 8- or 9-digit losses well into 2012, and maybe longer. That's not impossible for the Deep Pocket Players, but if anybody thinks guys like Archos are still going to be doing this two years from now, they're smoking rope.
UberMobile
Eric LaiUpdated: The Post With All Of 2011's Tablet and iPad Market Forecasts (Charts!)
Summary: Here are all of your 2011 tablet market forecasts, aggregated and charted.
(Updated Aug 24, 2011) Sometimes I feel like I’m back in my high school-era data entry jobs. I’ve collected and charted all of the publicly-available forecasts on the tablet market for 2011 and beyond.
(Note: This was updated on Aug 24, 2011 with iSuppli forecast, and on July 11, 2011 from the original February post with with nearly 20 new/revised forecasts from IDC, Gartner, Deutsche Bank, VDC, Canaccord, BMO Capital, Goldman Sachs, Jeffries & Co., iSuppli, etc. New text in bold.)
This post itself is an update to an earlier post I made last November that ranked analyst forecasts for 2010 in order of bullishness.
As I did with my iPad Enterprise & School Deployment List, I may eventually open up the entire Google Spreadsheet for public viewing. In the meantime, here are some charts for your visualization pleasure.
Wall Street’s 2011 Tablet Market Forecasts
Tech Research Firm Forecasts for 2011 Tablet Market
A few things jump out:
1) ABI Research’s Jeff Orr, who I respect a lot, remains on the low-endhas the most dour forecast by far. But the bear, as of July 2011, is research firm, eMarketer.
2) The raging bull award goes to FBR Capital’s Craig Berger, who had the cojones to make his 70 million forecast almost 8 months ago, and Peter Misek of Jeffries & Co., who made his call this month. Second place goes to Rhoda Alexander of iSuppli.
3) I had a theory that well-known analysts or those from the big banks or market research firms would be incentivized to put out cautious numbers for fear of being burnt. With Apple blowing out its Christmas iPad sales forecasts, perhaps they now fear being burnt for being too cautious. See Gartner, iSuppli, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, who are all on the high side.
4) Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray is one of the better-known Apple and iPad bulls. Yet, his latest 2011 forecast for the overall tablet market puts him on the low-end of the market.
5) There’s now a noticeable difference between the average of forecasts between the banking and tech analysts. Whereas both were about 50 million for 2011 back in February, the tech analysts are collectively 5% more bullish than the bank analysts (54.5 mln versus 52 mln).
6) Similarly, there’s no noticeable pattern of forecasts increasing over time, as there was with the 2010 forecasts (when analysts were playing catch-up to the iPad’s strong demand).
And here’s the iPad market forecasts for 2011:
Some notes:
1) The iPad forecasts fit my theory that the raging bulls will be the relatively lesser-known analysts/firms with less to lose: Wedge Partners, Ticonderoga Securities, DRAMexchange, FBR Capital, Caris & Co.
2) Belying his reputation as Apple’s cheerleader on Wall Street, Gene Munster actually has the lowest iPad forecast for 2011. Maybe we should start calling him a Google Bull?
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Eric Lai
Eric Lai tracks the latest news and trends in enterprise mobility. A veteran
tech journalist most recently covering enterprise software for Computerworld,
Eric joined Sybase, an SAP company in April 2010. Eric's views are his alone
and do not necessarily represent those of SAP. This blog is sponsored by SAP.
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