Dear Mr Broadband, where is that wireless revolution we were promised?
Summary: Critics of the NBN have pointed to wireless as the future of connectivity, but the numbers do not back up the claims made thus far.
In the six months since the last release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' (ABS) Internet Activity report, we've seen the launch of a popular 4G phone in the form of the iPhone 5, Australian telcos are expanding their long-term evolution (LTE) networks, and the copper that most of us rely on for our broadband has rotted a little further.
If ever the conditions for a takeoff of mobile data consumption were ripe, it was this six-month period.
In the latest release of the Internet Activity report, the headline figure is a 38 percent increase in the amount of data downloaded via mobile handsets to an estimated 13,703 Terabytes (TB).
This compares to the newly revised figure from the previous report for the half year to June 2012, which saw mobile downloads increase by 99 percent.
It is worth noting that the mobile download number only counts revenue-generating downloads — data from free-to-stream music services, for instance, are not counted in this total.

On the fixed-line side of the broadband equation, growth in the amount of data downloaded increased from 21 percent in June 2012 to 35 percent growth in the past six months, giving a final number of the amount of data downloaded by fixed-line broadband to 526,472TB.
That makes fixed-line broadband responsible for 95 percent of the data downloaded by Australians in the past six months — up a single percentage point since June 2012.
After a new Apple phone with LTE capability, increased 4G coverage, and the fact that LTE is multiples quicker than many ADSL connections presently in use, fixed-line broadband actually increased its percentage of total data downloaded.

In terms of the speeds of fixed subscriber lines, for the first time, there are more subscribers in the 8Mbps to 24Mbps band than any other, coming in at 5.4 million, an increase of 32 percent in six months. The previous band with the highest subscriber base was the 1.5Mbps to 8Mbps band; it now sits at 4.2 million, down from 5.1 million subscribers in the previous report. The slowest broadband speed in the report, 256Kbps to 1.5Mbps, saw its subscriber number fall from 980,000 to 609,000. Dial-up internet access suffered a major loss of subscribers, falling from 439,000 subscribers to 282,000 subscribers.
The highest speed band of greater than 24Mbps saw its subscriber base increase by 13 percent to 1.65 million subscribers.
Be aware, though, that these speeds are "advertised speeds" and do not reflect the variables of Australian broadband life, such as flooded ducts and line degradation.
Regardless of which party rolls out the National Broadband Network (NBN) in the coming years, the speeds of fixed-line broadband are only going to increase and possibly eclipse LTE and its next-gen wireless brethren.
Yet, take to the AM band in Sydney, and you'll hear commentary that decries fibre as a "white elephant" and mobile wireless as the future for all things digital.
"We are rolling out cable at incredible expense, when the future is clearly wireless," noted NBN critic Alan Jones said on Thursday before introducing Shadow Communications Malcolm Turnbull. (The quote is at 5:45 in the recording.)
And how did Turnbull, the Liberal Party's internet pioneer and newly dubbed "Mr Broadband", welcome the comments made by Jones?
"Well, Alan, I have to agree with everything you've said there," said Turnbull. "It is a very, very sorry — all you've done is state the facts."
It's tempting to give Turnbull the benefit of the doubt, and say that he wasn't agreeing directly with Jones. But when a shadow minister poses with a tablet as an example of "how fast broadband helps customers stream sport to iPads" after an alternative NBN policy launch, it raises concerns that maybe he does believe wireless is the future.

(Image: Liberal Party of Australia)
And why wouldn't the Liberal Party believe this? After all, its leader said on Tuesday that broadband running at 25Mbps would be "more than enough" for Australians — that speed falls squarely in the LTE download range. The caveat with LTE speeds, like any wireless solution, is that it is a wonderful and speedy option, but only if the network is not saturated with users.
The problem with thinking wireless is the future is that the numbers disagree thus far, there's been ample opportunity for wireless to make inroads into fixed-line broadband, and there's little sign of Australian broadband users changing their behaviour.
In fact, we are dropping away from the slowest offered fixed-line broadband speeds in increasing numbers.
Twelve months ago, it was fair to say that Australia was a country where the majority of internet connection speeds were below 8Mbps. Just a year later, the scales have shifted, and we are now a country with a majority connection speed of greater than 8Mbps.
Given these trends, what is the likelihood that Australians in 2019 will find the Coalition's 25Mbps acceptable?
In 2013, over 1.6 million subscribers are already beyond the Coalition's minimum speed, and this number is only going to increase as we head toward 2019.
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Talkback
It's all about growth!
There's not just one person at the end of the line
You do realise...
the real problem with the NBN debate
The reality is this. The ALP are a corrupt political party. Bleeding at the grass roots unable to even man all of the booths in a major electorate. Every poll, every state and local election all point to an absolute collapse in the ALP's vote.
This despite the vast majority of the country wanting the ALP's version of the NBN.
The NBN will not save the ALP. We'll be left with a pointless VDSL product with all the problems of ADSL. Its a lie and a waste of money but sadly that doesn't matter. The ALP have scuttled themselves and left us to pay for $30b worth of liberal crap that they'll sell to one of their cronies like Paul Broad or even godforbid Turnbull when he loses at the next liberal spill.
Well said!
Anyway, let's countdown before the usual rang of closed-eyed lunatics get on here and fill the forum with their usual vile and invective . . . . 3, 2, 1 . . .
Too late...
Please!
I can only wish that one day
We've had almost 6 years of Labor coming-up with grandiose policies and then failing at implementation. No matter how good the NBN policy might be, there is no good reason to believe that it is finally the one policy that Labor properly implements. You need only look across the spectrum of Labor failures to implement policy to get a modicum of understanding, and most of those were failures at a fraction of the cost of the NBN. Certainly it is a case of past performance predicting future performance, but that is all we have.
I could provide you with a list of failures, but it would be pointless.
As for your comment about dial-up, if only you knew . . .
Err
Well said
If your situation is as dire as mine, you will hopefully understand I really want and need the current NBN as it is to succeed.
Hey in fact not just for me but for every Australian 5 years from now.
I will cross my fingers for this. I cannot support Turnbull just because the implementation is currently broken, the principle is 100% sound.
We've known the difference for a long time. No one expected it to run fault free... except the religious anti-NBN zealots, that is why they are the first to bitch about not getting the fibre they say we don't need when a few delays happen. That's called having an agenda and going by the rest of your ill-informed comments I'd say it was political...
"We've had almost 6 years of Labor coming-up with grandiose policies and then failing at implementation. "
So remind us since you love the political angles so much how many years did the coalition have before that?
"I could provide you with a list of failures, but it would be pointless."
It certainly would be pointless, just because there are a few failures that does not make the NBN bad idea nor if the NBN failed itself would that make FttP bad idea either. That is what I am in favour for the majority of Australians long before the NBN...
"Rather, the problem is Labor's inability to successfully implement policy . . . and that is coupled with their incompetence"
Great, so give it to the coalition finish and by finish I mean the proper NBN build with 93% FttP... so will you be in favor of it then? I will, see that's the difference between you and me I don't give a rats ass who builds it, whoever does will get my praise and temporary respect and those that don't will rightfully get my criticisms.
Get real!
An analogy might be, the liberals, god bless them, want to use the 150 year old rail tracks and run (state of art) steam engines. Thought someone might have told them that more people fly now.
25Mbps being enough? Yeah right, you have to be kidding Abbott!
A) Fluctuates a LOT in speeds
B) Has terrible latency
C) Speeds vary a lot based in signal strength/distance from tower
I use a Sierra Telstra Wireless unit daily, and I have an ADSL service that gives me around 9Mbps download, my crappy slow ADSL still walks all over me Telstra 4G unit 90% of the time, it's only on the very odd occasion I get decent speeds above ADSL speeds on 4G, and the latency is a joke.
I would NEVER consider changing from a fixed wire connection to wireless, it just doesn't perform as some wannabe leaders would like to pretend it does.
Latency and quotas
If people start really ramping up their internet use - as you'd expect - then wireless broadband quotas will blow out, causing people to end up with huge bills.
Who can and will implement broadband - Coalition or Labor?
Coalition had 12 years to implement broadband - under Howard. But he bothched the Telstra sell-off and caused a pilot broadband project in Palmerston, ACT around 1995 or so to be cancelled by Telstra (such a forward looking company!). So residents have been waiting 18 years for real broadband access.
After less than two years of government, the Labor government began implementing the NBN, first in Tasmania then elsewhere. Now in the past few months, residents of Gungahlin and in particular Palmerston have optical fibre passing their residences. Some suburbs are even active already with 100Mbps. Gungahlin has experienced the highest NBN takeup in a short time (http://bit.ly/10UzDsD).
So who would you trust to deliver? Howard Mark 2 (Abbott) and Turnbull? Or those actually delivering?
Labor began the job