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Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?

Moderated by Jason Hiner | January 16, 2012, 7:00am PT

Summary: Intel-powered Ultrabooks were everywhere at CES 2012. But can they beat Apple at its own game?

Ed Bott
Yes
or
No
Robin Harris
Best Argument: Yes
72%
28%
Audience Favored: Yes (72%)
List of Events:

Opening Statements

A recipe for success

Ed Bott: Apple has been kicking ass in the high-end portable PC market over the last couple years. The MacBook Air has become deservedly popular for its exquisite engineering. But that’s all about to change. The pieces are finally clicking together for PC OEMs to make small, light, great-looking portable PCs at commodity prices. That is historically when the Apple versus Wintel battles get interesting. In this economy price is more of an issue than ever, and economies of scale should drive the price of ultrabooks down quickly.

I predict ultrabooks will be a big hit with PC buyers who like the MacBook Air form factor but prefer Windows to OS X. The combination of genuinely interesting hardware and a mature, smoother, more reliable Windows should narrow or even erase the design gap between Apple’s MacBook Air and those of the top Wintel OEMs. Historically, that’s a recipe for success.

Another profitless bit of me-too-ism

Robin Harris: Apple has re-defined music players, smart phones, tablet computers and, with the MacBook Air, the notebook computer. They've also gobbled up the lion's share of the profits and will do so again in Ultrabooks.Apple dominates over-$1,000 PC revenue with a 90% share. They dominate tablets likewise. The last 2 MacBook Air models have been a huge hit. Apple's strategy is to win profits, not volume.

Now, aided by an Intel war chest estimated at $300-$500 million, the PC vendors are striking back with the same tired "cheaper, not better" strategy that lost them the profitable markets segments in high-end PCs. It's another profitless bit of me-too-ism by the 20th century anachronism known as Wintel.

Wintel will lose the Ultrabook battle.

The Rebuttal

Great Debate Moderator

Mic check
Are both of my debaters online?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
Hello world
I'm here. With appreciation for the irony, I am typing my comments on a Mac desktop.

I'm doing all my research and chatting on a desktop PC running Windows 7. And I've got a Windows 8 tablet as a backup. wink
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
yes
Well, I could bring up W7 pro in Parallels, but I won't.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

Is the "Ultrabook" a good thing?
Alright, let's get this party started. In terms of the exposure game, Ultrabooks made a big splash at CES 2012. Is it a good thing that the Wintel ecosystem is all pushing in the same direction on one concept that computer buyers can understand?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
It's all about focus
The Ultrabook push and a crappy economy have finally given the PC industry the incentive to focus. And they realize that there's tremendous demand for small, light, powerful PCs. The benefit is twofold: first, with a common platform, PC makers can compete on design and support, and consumers can make easier comparisons. Second, they reach economies of scale.

But more than anything, they get to focus on producing one device in this category instead of 10.
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Chasing the leader is a good thing?
It's always a good thing when vendors recognize what customers want and give it to them. The fact that Apple came out with the first MBA in 2008 and it is only now - almost 5 years later - that Wintel sees the wisdom of the MBA form factor shows just how truly dysfunctional Wintel is. It was known almost 20 years ago that customers liked thin, large screen and lightweight notebooks. Only Apple has consistently tried to give users what they want.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

What's the big deal with Ultrabooks?
Why do Ultrabooks matter and why is the Wintel coalition putting all of their eggs in this basket?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
Has the post-PC era started yet?
Tablets are taking over a lot of the functions that people used to buy a big clunky cheap laptop for.

In 2012, there are only two categories of consumer PCs: notebooks and all-in-ones. (Enterprises are the only ones who buy tower desktops anymore. And me.)

The small, light form factor is highly mobile, which gives it the widest appeal among people who need something more than a tablet.
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Fear is a great motivator
Wintel is driven by fear, not the desire to excite customers. And the fear is that Apple will own the thin/light notebook market they way they own the All-in-one, tablet and smartphone markets.

Which they will: Wintel is already back to competing on price - cutting their margins, cheapening their product and cutting their investments in design and technology. You have to go back to the 1980s to see when that worked before. People expect more now - thanks to Apple.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

Is this Netbooks, part II?
How can Ultrabooks succeed where Netbooks failed?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
Why did Windows 7 succeed where Windows Vista failed?
Netbooks were the Vista of hardware. A good idea, but poorly executed, and delivered before the hardware was ready. The result wasn't pretty.

Moore's Law really helped here. For five years, the Wintel ecosystem has been working on miniaturizing the components that make up an Ultrabook. They're small enough to fit in this package, which in turn is about as small as you can make something that's still a usable portable PC.

I've used netbooks and I've used Ultrabooks. There's no comparison, thank goodness.
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Lieutenant, your men are already dead
They can't. In any market of largely undifferentiated products - the same OS, processors, form factor - where consumers mostly buy on price, it is always a race to the bottom. Where can I cut my quality to make a buck?


Whoever thought 8 pound notebooks with 90 minute battery lives were a good idea?

The fact is that you can't build an MBA competitor for much less than Apple does. You can build something that sort of looks like it, but it you want the quality, you have to pay. And Wintel has conditioned consumers to buy on price, not quality.

There's a lot of industry wishful thinking - "Windows 8 will save us!" - that ignores a basic reality: Apple owns its core technologies and is always aggressively searching out more great ideas, investing heavily in them, and then bringing them out when they make a real difference to the customer.

So if the definition of success is a majority of unit sales, then yes, Wintel will win. But if it is a majority of profit, then NO, Wintel has already lost.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

Is reinventing laptops the right strategy?
It's tablets that are eating into laptop sales from the bottom up, so why does it make sense for all of these vendors to focus on reinventing laptops instead of just talking about tablets or hybrid tablets like the Lenovo Yoga?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
There's still plenty of demand for laptops
Tablets are great for lots of scenarios. OK for other scenarios, and unusable in a few scenarios. I would not want to write a book on a tablet, for example.

It's hard for me to imagine a world where a tablet is your only computing device. Most people will end up with both a tablet and a portable PC.

They still want the classic notebook integrated with a keyboard and a pointing device. In fact, with the power of the hardware in most of the Ultrabooks I've seen, you're able to do what would have been workstation-class stuff just a few years ago. At very reasonable prices.

Add a USB 3.0 docking station and you can turn an Ultrabook into a desktop. Unplug it and you're mobile.
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Double down on the tablet fiasco?
Wintel's usual suspects have tried and failed to replicate the iPad for a very good reason: you can't just slap together a bunch of commodity parts and a half-baked OS and get the seamless iPad experience. So of course, reinvent the notebook.

But the bigger issue is that the growth that fueled the PC industry for 40 years has ceased. As a result we don't need all the vendors we have today. There's blood in the water and many of today's PC vendors won't be around in 5 years.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

Is this what all laptops will look like?
Ultrabooks are clearly inspired by the MacBook Air, which was released four years ago and has gotten really popular the last two years. Two years from now, will all laptops look like the MacBook Air and Ultrabooks?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
It's evolution
I don't think this is a conscious attempt to clone the MacBook Air. Rather, it's the inevitable response to the demand to assemble a bunch of components whose size is defined by ergonomics in many cases.

With a keyboard, a trackpad, a display, and various ports, you're going to end up at a certain size that's about as small as you can go and still be usable.

Apple got there early with the MacBook Air. It's taken the Wintel world a few extra years to put those pieces together as commodities.

If, as Robin argues, the definition of "winning" is measured by profits, then of course Apple wins. They've staked out the high end. But the competition can do better in the middle than they are today.
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
The Macs will be even better looking
Apple's business model supports continued innovation and first in the market technology. Simply put, Apple's machines make profits that support continued improvement and Wintel machines don't.

As a result, the Wintel vendors have to wait for a new technology - or a knockoff - to be commoditized so they can package it up and resell it.

The Wintel Ultrabooks will look like last years MacBook Airs. Expect Apple to keep innovating in design and features while Wintel struggles to keep up.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

What about design and innovation?
What's your take on the innovation, or lack thereof, from manufacturers in following up the MacBook Air design? Are there too many close copycats or are there good examples of useful innovations?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
It's early
It's still early to form judgments, but the OEMs have gotten off to a pretty good start, I think.

I like the look I've seen in the design of some devices. The new glass HP machine, brushed aluminum on others including te ASUS ZenBook.

My wife has a Samsung Series 9. I think it does a very clever job of exposing ports. She thinks it looks very sexy but wishes it came in a color other than black.

I actually see a boring sameness in MacBook designs these days. I like the idea of some different choices. And I also like the idea that the machines are designed to work with Windows. That will make even more of a difference with Windows 8, I suspect.
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Wintel can't afford innovation
Asus, Lenovo and HP don't control their platform, so their ability to innovate is limited. Intel has a conversion experience every few years and claim that now they get the low-power issue, but then they go back to their power-sucking ways. Microsoft is making a good effort with Windows 8 but that won't save the day.

Real innovation will be things like fuel cells, 3d gestures, improved mechanical design and voice control. Apple is working hard on all of these, buying companies when they need too, and investing in creating great user products. Wintel vendor, other then MS and Intel, can't afford this, so they don't.

The most laughable "innovation" is the touchscreen. This has been a known-stupid idea in human factors circles for 30 years. Google "gorilla arm" and see for yourself.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

Who makes the best Ultrabooks?
Which PC manufacturer do you think has the best Ultrabook designs and why?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
Again, it's early
I think you have to spend time with a machine before you can make judgments like that.

In the case of the Samsung, I continue to be impressed every time I pick it up. I'm looking forward to seeing it in other form factors,

The ASUS ZenBook looks like one I could spend some serious time with.

As a very satisfied user of other high-end Dell PCs I am really looking forward to seeing the new XPS 13 next month.
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Apple, of course.
If Microsoft were smart, they'd offer special deals to MacBook Air owners on Windows 7/8. Install it using Bootcamp or partner with Parallels or VMware and offer a special discount. Think of it as a stealth OEM deal.

I use Win7 with Parallels 7 and it works very well. Previous versions of Parallels and VMware's Fusion, not so much.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

And the price tag?
Let's talk price. Ed referred to the fact that price will be the lever that Ultrabooks use to beat the MacBook Air in volume, but most of these Ultrabooks aren't that much cheaper than the MacBook Air yet, right? Will they get cheaper soon? If not, will lots of people just opt for the real thing instead of a knock-off?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
The real thing has a Windows keyboard
Well, for starters, I reject the premise that the MacBook Air is "the real thing."

It's a fine OS X machine. But as I've demonstrated before, it's not optimized to run Windows. You pay a penalty if you use Boot Camp and a different penalty if you use virtualization, not to mention the actual dollars you spend on the Windows license and virtualization software.

That's literally a $300 charge if you pay for the licensing.

MacBook Airs have gotten about as cheap as they can get. There's still lots of room to squeeze out costs in the Ultrabook category. For someone who prefers Windows and uses it most or all of the time, an Ultrabook will be a much better deal.

In this economy, even a $100 difference is profound.
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Something can always be made cheaper - and someone will buy it
Ancient marketing wisdom: win on price, lose on price. The fact is that Apple has the largest share of All-in-one market with iMacs, and the same dynamics there apply to Ultrabooks.

Apple is perfectly willing to compete on price when it suits them. They could easily drop the entry MacBook Air price to 899 or less - they have the volume - but they won't until they see good reason.

I know a number of people who bought MacBook Airs and then installed Windows. The best hardware and their preferred OS. Sure, it costs a bit more - 10%-15% - but for power users that's a niggle.

And don't forget: Macs retain their value much better than Wintel boxes. I sold a 5 year old Mac Pro for $2k - you can hardly buy a new Wintel for that. Check Craigslist: lots of 3-5 year old Macs selling for $500+.

Ed may like this or that Wintel Ultrabook, but my 2010 MacBook Air will be worth more than any of this years crop in 3 years. Wintel is lucky that few buyers take a true lifecycle cost view.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

Will we see a desktop version?
What about desktops? Will we see an Ultrabook-like movement for minimal desktops like the Mac Mini?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
Desktops? I vaguely remember them...
The definition of desktop is changing. It used to mean tower. Now the only people who buy tower PCs are enterprises and hobbyists and gamers (and cheapskates).

If there's a desktop equivalent to the Ultrabook, it would be an all-in-one.

Like the iMac, it's evolution at work. In some situations consumers want something with a reasonably large screen in a fixed location with as few wires as possible. It's about time for something as sleek as an Ultrabook to appear in that form factor.

In the Mac Mini sized devices, we'll see appliances, not full-strength PCs.
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Desktops are a niche market
The Mac Mini hasn't caught fire with consumers the way the MacBook Air has, for a number of reasons. So Wintel doesn't have anything to chase.

Apple has been selling a steadily increasing proportion of their Macs as notebooks. That can't continue forever, but its obvious that sync technology hasn't kept up with customer needs, on Mac or Wintel, so a single machine is preferable.

As Moore's Law continues, you'll be able to get even more power in a mini-sized box. But for most of us tower users, power isn't the only issue. Expansion, ECC memory, robust quality and investment protection are also important.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

What's your prediction for Ultrabooks?
Will we still be talking about Ultrabooks at CES 2013 or will they just evolve and take over the PC laptop category? If Ultrabooks don't succeed, would it spell trouble for the Wintel ecosystem?
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
Can I offer a wishlist instead?
We are in strange and uncertain times, both in terms of tech and in the economy. This is an obvious direction for OEMs to go with small notebooks, and the ones I have seen should do well in the market.

In my experience, people (real people, not tech reviewers or bloggers) see these new designs and like them. In many cases they're using Windows 7 for the first time so they get that experience as well.

Predictions? Who knows. But I do know what I would like to see. Here's my wishlist:

Fewer models. Please, OEMs, take your best shot. Give me a small number of choices for CPU and SSD size, but don't complicate the rest.

Less crapware, please. I bought the Samsung Series 9 from the Microsoft Store, so it came with Microsoft Signature. I cannot tell you how pleasant it is to not have a bunch of weird utilities and services running at all times, and I didn't have to uninstall anything.

Don't cut corners. I know there's a tendency to shave quality of components to get prices down. I hope that doesn't happen here. If Intel does one thing well, it should be to preserve the quality of the Ultrabook brand.
Ed Bott 17th Jan I'm for Yes
The die is cast
The industry is on notice that consumers want thin, light, and long battery life notebooks. Ultrabooks only look good today because current Wintel notebooks are so clunky.

As the iPad continues to eat the cheap notebook's lunch, Ultrabooks will be the only game in town for Wintel vendors.

The real Ultrabooks problem isn't pricing, it's quality. Like netbooks, cheapo Ultrabooks will poison the well, destroy the brand, and then price doesn't matter. For most casual users, tablets are a better deal.

Unless Intel and MS insist on certain standards - beyond what they ask today - their margin-starved partners will turn the clean, crisp Ultrabooks concept into a mush of cheap, poorly thought out, act-alike machines.

So no, Ultrabooks won't be important in 2013's CES. Everyone will be chasing the Apple TV or whatever the next great thing they've come up with.
R Harris 17th Jan I'm for No

Great Debate Moderator

Thanks for joining the debate
Ed and Robin will post their closing arguments tomorrow and I will declare a winner on Thursday. Between now and then, don't forget to cast your vote and jump into the discussion below to post your thoughts on this topic.
Jason Hiner 17th Jan
Ends in:
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Closing Statements

It’s about time

Ed Bott

Four years ago, when Apple introduced the MacBook Air, it cost a fortune and it got mostly terrible reviews. It took Apple several more years to get it right, thanks mostly to improvements in processor and chipset design by ... Intel.

It's taken Intel's Windows customers a bit longer to get their act together, but the Ultrabook category represents an impressive step in the right direction: a commodity product that enables hardware makers to create small, light, powerful PCs that are optimized to run Windows.

I have no doubt that Apple will continue to make huge profits by selling its small notebook as a luxury item to the top of the market.

I also have no doubt that Ultrabook prices will continue to drop, because that's what the Wintel ecosystem does best.

Thankfully, this year Windows users will finally have a range of choices in an obviously desirable form factor. That's what competition is about.

 

A different view of win

Robin Harris

Many have a different view of "win" than I do. PCs and Ultrabooks are low-profit losers. The Wintel companies chasing the Ultrabook market - really, the MacBook Air market - can't win from a business perspective.

Manufacturers that ship a lot of product and eke out a small profit can't innovate fast enough. Ed conceded the point: "For five years, the Wintel ecosystem has been working on miniaturizing the components that make up an Ultrabook."

Just as Apple is the #1 supplier of all-in-one systems - the iMac - and surely the most profitable, it is clear that they will remain the #1 supplier of Ultrabook-class notebooks. And as in smartphones, they will win the lion's share of the profits, enabling continued investment and innovation that Wintel can only dream about.

That's a win in my book.

Price matters

Jason Hiner

This one was almost a draw. Of course, we don't do draws in the Great Debate. Robin is right that the Ultrabook movement hasn't really shown us a whole lot of innovation so far. It's mostly a lot of uninspired MacBook Air knock-offs.

Still, price does matter and I agree with Ed that the Ultrabook vendors are going to aggressively drop the price of their laptops in 2012 and undercut Apple. That will leave the high end of the market (and most of the profits) to Apple, while putting Ultrabooks in the hands of a lot more buyers. So, when we ask who wins this market, it depends on how we define winning.

I'm going to side with the majority of consumers, who will ultimately get a much better laptop than their last one when they buy an Ultrabook for under $1,000. That means Ed gets the nod.

More from "The Great Debate"

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0 Votes
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
pete_w_flynn@... 13th Jan I'm for No
Gosh Ed I thought you were more of a realist! But I am looking forward to reading your opinion.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
pschultz@... 13th Jan I'm for Yes
They just work
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
Rob.sharp@... 18th Jan I'm for Yes
@pschultz@...

Wintel will catch and exceed Apple. Apples tactic of everyone will be happy with our limited product line is ass nine. I'm sorry but I will never buy an Apple product....EVER!
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Who cares what you buy?
GoPower 19th Jan I'm Undecided
Nobody here!
@rob.sharp@...
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
HackerJ 13th Jan I'm for No
Who wouldn't want a laptop that costs > $1K with lots of bloatware and all of the Digital Restrictions Management that you one could ever want? And you've got those very entertaining blue guys marketing the Intel hardware, that is more than enough to override any logic about cost or battery life usability.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
bradavon 17th Jan I'm for Yes
@HackerJ: PC OEMs routinely fill their PCs with so much bloatware it slows the PC down and makes it less fun to use but the massive price differences ultrabooks will get to, people simply don't care enough.
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Economics 101 anyone?
rock06r 17th Jan I'm for Yes
@HackerJ

Yeah, well, that's how they manage to reduce the price of their systems and still stay profitable. Every time a user "clicks and buys" on one of those pieces of bloatware the software vendor makes a few bucks, the distributor makes a few bucks, and the hardware vendor that shipped the system with the bloat installed gets a few bucks. Compare that to Apple - you basically get to pay a higher price for less 3rd party bloatware and more *ahem* apple experience.

Some of that "bloatware" is actually practical. I like Lenovo's security suite, including their fingerprint software. I love the fact that most reputable vendors have some kind of backup included on top of MS's shadow copy, including having the user pop in a few DVD's the first time they start up the system. I believe Apple moved their "backup" service to the cloud, i.e. your system disks (?) are in your i-tune account. Kinda silly if you ask me, but anyhoo. I guess it saves Apple $1.50 for every user rather than having to burn the discs. Perhaps their version of "premium" services and devices is slowly...."evolving"?!
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
levinson 18th Jan I'm for No
@rock06r: Apple provides the backup on a thumb drive. Especially useful since you can't burn a DVD on an Air, they don't have an internal DVD drive anyway.

And just how do Ultrabook makers provide their system backups? Don't you have to burn it to DVDs? Which means, for UltraBook owners, they, too, need to buy an external drive. Or burn the backup to a thumb drive. Which they have to buy.

While I'm here, the question "Can Wintel win..." needs a goal defined. As Robin said, if it is numbers, Wintel will win. If is profits, Apple will win. Since I'd rather have profits than numbers, I vote "No."
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
lepoete73 19th Jan I'm for No
@levinson "And just how do Ultrabook makers provide their system backups?"

I don't have an ultrabook, but I have an HP Pavilion dm1 that has no optical drive and I had an Acer Aspire1 netbook (obviously with no optical drive) and both systems' recovery software allowed to create recovery media to a thumbdrive as well as DVD.

I personally chose DVD with my USB burner plugged in as I think DVDs are more reliable than thumbdrive for long term storage, but I understand that not everybody's got a USB burner.

I'm not for ultrabooks even if my reply seems to support it. I'm for the small form factor but not at the price ultrabooks are selling. The HP Pavilion dm1 I've got is a small form factor with long battery life even though it's not as thin as an ultrabook and it's got a real 640Gig hard drive instead of an SSD, but the price is right!
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
wschnaer@... 16th Jan I'm Undecided
There are really two questions here: (1) Can Wintel Ultrabooks gain significant market share in the Ultrabook category? and (2) Can Wintel Ultrabook manufacturers make a reasonable profit from Ultrabooks?

Based on history, I believe the answer to (1) is "yes". As in the "regular" laptop market, there are people who are locked into Windows and don't care about OS X and will gladly pay less for an Ultrabook that gives them the minimum features and capabilities they need.

Also based on history, I believe the answer to (2) is "no". Also as in the laptop market, the large number of competitors will quickly drive the Ultrabook into becoming a commodity with vanishing profit margins.

Which raises question 3 - should Apple be worried? Definitely no. There's no reason to believe their view of the Ultrabook will be any different than their view of the laptop - let the competitors sell as many of them as they want at insufficient prices.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
CyberZombie Updated - 16th Jan I'm Undecided
dupe entry...
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
CyberZombie 16th Jan I'm Undecided
@wschnaer@...

I fully agree...and further suggest that the debate be refined by this distinction.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
bradavon 17th Jan I'm for Yes
@wschnaer@... Good point about the profit problem. PC OEMs make profit by selling a lot of product, Apple makes profit by selling a lot less at a higher price. We're already seeing examples of ultrabooks being sold for way under the original $1000 price.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
ForeverSPb 19th Jan I'm for Yes
@bradavon - PC stands for personal computer, OEM stands for Original Equipment Manufacturer. Under this definition - Apple is a PC OEM since it produces personal computers.
The original question is similar to this one - with Ford producing so many cars - will Mercedes get out of business? Will Mercedes win over Ford's customers? No and no. In any market there is a place for high end / high profit, and low end / low profit products. Companies on the both ends of the specter can struggle if they make mistakes.
Personally I will never buy an Apple product if i can help it, but tastes differ.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
jmfcosta@... 16th Jan I'm for Yes
It will all depend on the OS. If Win8 can deliver a swift boot-up and a speedier and hassle-free management for the 90% of tasks most people do in their normal workday, Wintel ultrabooks will probably be the best cost-efficiency option. All the same, with the development costs of MacAir/Book/BookPro already paid for, Apple may slash prices for keeping market share. Also looks make a large part of Apple's appeal, so Wintel ultrabooks must invest heavily on design. A nice Vaio logo is not enough.
0 Votes
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Yes of course wintel take over the ultrabook market. Robin is completely
Johnny Vegas 16th Jan I'm for Yes
wrong and he's not even arguing the question. Yeah apple will "dominate" the > $1000 market but only because the wintel ultrabook market isnt > $1000 hardware. And yes apple will have the highest profit margin but that's not the question, nor is it good for consumers. The question is marketshare and wintel will dominate that. Further he's completely wrong on anything about wintel ultrabook success having anything to do with intels warchest since that will only amount to pennies a unit. And he's again completely wrong with their strategy, its not "cheaper not better" it's "cheaper and better". They are designing for W8. They will be cheaper, much, as they head $500 but they will also be much better. They will boot faster, have longer battery life, be more secure, more reliable, have better usability, a larger ecosystem, etc. etc. etc.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
Geekygirl68 16th Jan I'm for Yes
Yes, I believe they can. Apple has always placed a premium on their products; and not all of their products survived. Macintosh dropped off the map. I purchased my first computer in '85 and have had 10 more since. There is room in the world for several types of OS. I prefer Windows, others do not. My needs and theirs are not the same. I build my own to suit my needs and no one but me controls what I can or cannot put in or on my pc. I also own my 4th iPod and an IPad 2 with its crapp cameras. 2011 and they put in .3 & .7MP cameras - my 5 year old cell flip phone has 10 X the MP. So, in some areas Apple could do better but then you wouldn't upgrade every year. I would pay a premium for something that isn't obsolete in 6 mos to a year. I enjoy being able to cross platforms when I choose.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
levinson 18th Jan I'm for No
@Geekygirl68 Is there anything these days that isn't obsolete within 6 months? I'm still using a 6-year-old Powerbook, but it sure is obsolete!
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
kenosha77a 16th Jan I'm for No
Persons forget what "Wintel" is short for. To remind them, it is a shortened combination of two words: Windows and Intel (Knowing that and keeping that fact in the forefront is important to this debate.)

It's been noted that prototypes of an ARM based MacBook Air have existed. That implies that traditional OS X programs can run on the ARM architecture platform.

Therefore a future ARM based MBA with advances in CPU and GPU intergrated power could offer a significant advantage over an Intel x86 class CPU.

Secondly, I believe a merger of OS X and iOS is far easier than a merger between legacy Windows apps with the Win 8 platform (but that opinion is just that, an opinion. I wouldn't be surprised that I was proven wrong on that.) However, the Wintel platform must still prove it can compete on performance and battery charge duration characteristics in a mobile ultrabook class environment.

Finally, Apple, during the last 12 years or so, has demonstrated an ability to innovate advanced design concepts whereas the Wintel ecosystem has continuously shown only a half-backed reactionary desire to copy Apple products. (The Android ecosystem has copied Apple initiatives much, MUCH better than its Windows counterparts.) I would look to and expect Apple to continuously advance the "ultrabook" computer concept further with it's MacBook Air line of mobile computers than the Wintel consortium's ability to advance their ultrabook class of laptops can.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
gonzalo_san_gil@... 17th Jan I'm Undecided
As Long as Ultrabooks come with an option to override UEFI, the way Pe@ple can install any (Open) Software / Hardware, the Machine Concept is very interesting...
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PC and MAC Users are Different
jpr75_z 17th Jan I'm for No
I am not, and have never have been, excited about thin, sleek, pretty laptops. I want a full function, configurable, fast laptop with great graphics and a long battery life. At the same time, I don't want a boat anchor, and If it happens to be thin, sleek and pretty, fine, but the form factor is not going to determine if I buy a laptop or not. For Apple fans, it seems it does (they love pretty). For Wintel fans, not so much. The current Ultrabooks are trying to copy Apple (pathetic) and are way too expensive. If I want to pay too much for a pretty, but hobbled laptop, I will buy a MacBook. I don't think Ultrabooks, at the current price point, are going anywhere.
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Win8 tablets may just make Ultrabooks an also ran
Patanjali 17th Jan I'm Undecided
Win8 tablets will offer all the functionality of Ultrabooks with the 'always on' functionality of tablets, in a more convenient, lighter and flexible format.

And I am just talking about the x86 based versions. The Samsung Slate XE700 has shown that tablets don't have to limit CPU power, but they do not fulfil the stricter power requirements of Win8 nor do they provide the always on Connected Standby state.

When Win8 hits, I would expect there will be plenty of tablet+keyboard candidates to be used to replace laptops come hardware refresh. Some will stick with laptops, but most will make the small jump.

I vote that Ultrabooks will be irrelevant.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
bradavon 17th Jan I'm for Yes
To compare MP3 Players, Smartphones, Tablets with laptops is a stupid comparison. Windows is incredibility entrenched. Show me the MP3 player, smartphone (Windows Mobile?) or tablet (Windows XP?) competition back when those products were launched.

As popular as MAC OS X products are, there's a simple financial reason why numbers are still tiny compared to Windows hardware sales. This will carry forward to Ultrabooks which will probably cut corners but be a hell of a lot cheaper.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
lepoete73 17th Jan I'm for No
Most of the WinTel community usually goes for cheap machines, personally I do except for my development machine, but this machine is in good part paid by my office.

I'm never gonna double the price I'm ready to pay to have something a few millimeters thinner.
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Usefullness vs. Apple
SylvainT 17th Jan I'm for Yes
If we consider that a laptop is used mostly for work and users need Windows for real work. The ultrabook should win hand down.

when u pay over 1k for a ultrabook, the usefulness factor is probably the most important buy factor
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
levinson 18th Jan I'm for No
@SylvainT Why would you need an ultrabook at work? Aren't most workers "chained to a desk"? Wouldn't they want a desktop model? Actually, not their choice, anyway. IT would prefer a desktop because it would be easier to repair, so that is what most workers will get.
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Its a limited market, but the shares needn't change.
peter_erskine@... 17th Jan I'm for Yes
More people need Windows than need Apple computing. And more people need value for money than need Apple hardware.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
clues@... 17th Jan I'm for No
The Ultra-book me too catchup program will dupe the bottom feeders and legitimize the entire category Apple created. Bottom line Apple's profits and sales will jump and the wannabe imitators will sell me-too products at NO profit to the usual cheap and stupid WinTel drones.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
jfutral Updated - 17th Jan I'm for No
CAN Winarm or Wintel win? Sure. Will they? Probably not. They would do better trying to come up with their own hot new items, since Microsoft is not the ones calling the shot here, Apple is.

I like the previous poster who pointed out the difference between a unorganized federation of companies attaining market share, ala Android, and making profit. Even with Android only Samsung is making any money and they point to the fact that they offer a broad bench of products, not just Android devices.

So Winarmtel might collectively attain market share (though the tablet market condition seems to indicate otherwise) but "win" is hardly what I would call losing money at the expense of market share. Less face it, the only company really making money with Wintel PCs is Microsoft [edit to add] and Intel (why else the continued revolving door of Wintel PC makers?). At some point hardware makers should see this as a problem to be solved.

Joe
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
axy03@... 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Yes, but with their announced next version of power sipping processors and Windows 8. With the current architecture, no.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
Aerowind 17th Jan I'm Undecided
The title on this debate is silly. By definition, ultrabooks are those fancy wintel laptops. Now if you're referring to just thin laptops...well, they've got potential, but not for any other reason that they run Windows. When it comes down to it, if people are looking for one of these ultrathins, if they're a mac person they'll buy mac, and if they're a Windows person they'll buy ultrabook.
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I'm sick of people telling me the Macbook Air is better....better at what?
chrisconnolly 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Seriously folks. We all know most "normal" people buy Mac's because they envision hip/cool vibes but seriously, I cannot find one Macbook air user who can explain to me why that purchase is worth it when you can get a Wintel laptop for half the price. The Virus argument is a myth. So why is it? Especially these folks that only do internet/facebook//email on them. Apple has sold the magical Kool-aid to many people and I just shake my head all the way to the bank. And everyone lets ignore the profit bit. We know Apple makes money hand over fist on their products. They're making killer profits but still only have less than 4% of the PC market.

So, someone please explain. I understand the products are built well. They look cool/etc. Get over that. I'm asking functionally, why does anyone think these are better.
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Case in point
rbethell 18th Jan I'm for No
@chrisconnolly My wife and I bought laptops on the same day. A few months later, she's constantly getting spooked by crapware security tools (Norton and a handful of preloaded others) telling her she's going to come down with the black plague if she doesn't click on some warning and give them money.

Her computer came preloaded with a pile of games that crapped out after three plays. She doesn't know whether to buy them or get rid of them.

She's saddled with Internet Exploder, and all kinds of protectionware, search toolbars, and crap.

Windows 7 on its own is a pretty nice OS. But not after the computer vendor weights it down with all their crap.

Meanwhile, the Macbook I got has exactly what the showcase floor models suggest its got... other than what I added from the Apple App Store. It has no crapware, no frightening antivirus warnings from three different vendors whose junk was preloaded. It does have iLife, which is very, very useful, and yes, "just works." And my Safari isn't loaded down with eight hundred toolbars.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
Schoolboy Bob 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Windows is quite robust and will only get better. Mac OS, less so (Unix core is not inherently good for a GUI). Prices will continue to come down. Windows will continue to widen the gap. Business and astute end users don't have a problem with bloatware - they install their own Windows OS build.
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It really doesn't matter
wer110 17th Jan I'm Undecided
This is a fools debate similar to the Mac / PC argument

Apple is going to do what Apple is going to do ... they do not worry about the industry (or their customers for that matter). They just work on creating the most usable and capable devices they can.

The Windows side does what the windows side always does ... they basically say me too, and they copy the features of Mac OS X and Linux they feel their customers want.

To tell you the truth my bet to the future of Ultrabooks in the long term is chrome and cloud computing initiatives. Especially with the ever expanding abilities of cloud based applications like Google Docs.

That's my 2-cents for all it's worth.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
fldbryan@... 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Apple laptops are based on Intel. is somebody trying to tell me that Windows 7 (or 8) wouldn't run on the same hardware? After all that's all we are really talking about here.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
levinson Updated - 18th Jan I'm for No
@fldbryan@... Good point! Wintel vs. Mactel! Maybe this debate should have been titled "Can Windows win..."
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Is Robin Harris on the Apple Payroll?
cstoner 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Wow... These gung-ho "Apple'rs" are really unbelievable in their hatred toward Intel (and Microsoft). I guess when your opposing team has ruled the PC industry for so long, your bound to get a 'few' haters.
What they still don't seem to get, a GOOD part of the recent success of Apple's MacBook has "Intel"s Core iX series written ALL over it!
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
Jaipo 17th Jan I'm for No
I have to go with Robin on this one, by the time the wintel catch up I fully expect Apple to be one the next innovation.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
Netteligent 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Intel and AMD should not waste money and resource on boring netbook and old laptops. Consumers need a good ultra laptops at decent prices. Whoever can provide both will win the market in a very long term. Competition opens to all in 2012.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
paul2011 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Ultrabook designed by Braun would be a winner. After all Apple is doing great by copying Braun designs from 1970s. Imagine what 21st century Braun design would look like with Windows 7 and without crapware. Apple would have something new to copy happy
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
peterg11 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Apple is a great innovator but most of the world uses windows and ms office so if wintel can clone the apple products successfully - and ultrabooks are close to achieving this - they will win.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
DayTrader$ 17th Jan I'm for Yes
In my experience, sub-$500 computers are the sweet spot for most people. Right now, you can buy a nice Windows laptop for that price point. If Windows 8 Ultrabooks hit that price point too, then you'll see them really sell. There's no way Apple will sell any MacBook Air for that price point, so only well-to-do fanboys will buy them once these prices are reached.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
davechilds_2000@... 17th Jan I'm for Yes
If it has a White keyboard --Yes!!
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
shellcodes_coder 17th Jan I'm for No
Windows is not OS X and never will be but just a wannabe and Microsoft can't innovate but just make blatant ripoffs of their competitors
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
Geekygirl68 17th Jan I'm for Yes
Yes, I believe they can. Apple has always placed a premium on their products; and not all of their products survived. Macintosh dropped off the map. I purchased my first computer in '85 and have had 10 more since. There is room in the world for several types of OS. I prefer Windows, others do not. My needs and theirs are not the same. I build my own to suit my needs and no one but me controls what I can or cannot put in or on my pc. I also own my 4th iPod and an IPad 2 with its crapp cameras. 2011 and they put in .3 & .7MP cameras - my 5 year old cell flip phone has 10 X the MP. So, in some areas Apple could do better but then you wouldn't upgrade every year. I would pay a premium for something that isn't obsolete in 6 mos to a year. I enjoy being able to cross platforms when I choose.
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
kenosha77a Updated - 17th Jan I'm Undecided
@Geekygirl68

My apologies if you did NOT post this comment intentionally.

How many times are you going to repeat your original post, Geekygirl68?Does running up the vote count mean that much to you? I find your repeated post somewhat amusing. I'm pretty sure everyone that wanted to read your comments did so 23 hours ago. Your original comments were acceptable if standard fair but really - did you need to repeat them?
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RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
JustCallMeBC Updated - 17th Jan I'm for No
I've been a big fan of ultraportable notebooks long before they finally came into fashion in this country (remember how the Japanese companies for a long time mostly kept their ultraportables off the U.S. market due to supposed American disinterest?) I like my 1 1/2 yr old netbook a lot and I've noticed that the local Micro Center (in very, very techie Cambridge, MA) can't keep netbooks in stock -- belying their supposed deaths (Very irksome and very arbitrary restrictions by Microsoft and Intel on netbook hardware and software is probably mostly to blame if the netbook market really is slowing.)

Currently one can buy a basic notebook with a 15" screen, i3 processor, 4 Gb memory, and a 320 Gb hard drive for about $400, so you would think you can get something in a netbookish size for about this, but nooo.... For $400, you are looking at an underpowered Brazos or Ion/Atom processor. The closest thing that combines a smallish size with good specs at a good enough price is the ~$500 Toshiba Satellite L735-S3350, but that weighs almost 5 lbs and is fairly thickish at about 1.5" thick. Swap out the hard drive with an SSD for about $200, and you have reasonable fast ultracompact notebook for $700. But for $300 more, you can get an MacBook Air that's a lot slimmer, lighter, a little bit faster, and with a higher resolution screen.

Basically the MacBook Air is the ultraportable notebook version of the iPad: if you come up with something comparable with about the same price -- or worse, higher -- it will fail like the HP TouchPad did. That means the current group of Ultrabooks are not going to fly. You would need the PC equivalent of a Kindle Fire or Nook -- something less powerful but still perfectly useable at about half the price of the Apple product -- to make serious headway. Basically something like a suped-up netbook that can be sold for no more than $500-600. Long live the netbook -- sorry Ultrabook.
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Wintel vs. Apptel ... all that is different is the OS
abuse.this2@... 17th Jan I'm for Yes
People seem to have forgotten that Apple now runs on Intel, so it is no longer Apple vs. Wintel, but Apptel vs. Wintel. The difference now is the OS more than anything else. Apple has always made a point of charging a premium price. They were able to do that as they allowed absolutely no competition. No one else could make hardware to run their OS, so they focused on the education industry, in particular, hoping that by "getting them young" they could keep people locked in paying premium prices. Far too many people though, have to operate on a price basis, so, when a comparable Wintel box can be had for several hundred dollars less than the Apple version, learning the things that an end-user has to know isn't that big a deal. As long as Apple insists on overcharging for their hardware, Wintel will win in the commodity market. Personally, as much as I dislike the Microsoft Monopoly, at least I can reuse peripherals from one generation to another. When it comes to Apple, look what happens: you buy a new iDevice and you have to buy all new cases, cables, etc. All the extras which also have a premium price tag. For me and my dollars, I will go with Wintel, as at least the peripherals and hardware are open to competition and fair or reasonable pricing. So yes, I believe that the Wintel group can dominate the Ultrabook market, particularly if they continue to keep their price point at least 20% below Apptel.
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AMD or ARM!
el_tirador 17th Jan I'm for Yes
The result of the Ultrabook showdown will be a very important one. If Wintel gives Apple a good fight then Apple may partner with/buy AMD (FUSION!!!) given their preference for vertical integration and AMD hardware or they may give the ARM-for-desktops idea a thought (NVIDIA???)
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very interesting
aflemo 8th Mar I'm Undecided
We know Apple makes money hand over fist on their products.
frauen

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Comments from the floor

  • very interesting
    We know Apple makes money hand over fist on their products.
    frauen
    aflemo 8th Mar
    I'm Undecided
  • It's Wintel Bro.
    Intel and Microsoft. Let them wake up. The market is waiting for them.
    sourav_dey 25th Feb
    I'm for Yes
  • RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
    "Wintel?"

    You mean how Microsoft is ditching Intel for ARM?

    Meh, anything can happen now. I'm not making predictions.
    CobraA1 21st Jan
    I'm Undecided
  • RE: Can Wintel win the Ultrabook market?
    Apple always innovates. Wintel cannot compete, so they make cheap products and sell them very cheaply. People don't want crap. They prefer good products at a good price. But to defend Wintel as well...people who have less money have a chance to own an ultrabook, if it's prices are half the price of MacBook Airs. But that's not the case now....so they buy cheap notebooks.....everyone wins.
    ginoyann 20th Jan
    I'm for No
  • Delusional Man is Delusional
    I have to say Robin's die-hard-on for Apple ruined any actual support that real life would have against this argument. There are probably some decent intelligent responses against Ultrabooks by citing Apple's successes but Mr. Harris missed them completely for his warped view he see's from his own bubble.

    That being said, Ed and Ultrabooks are the clear winners, without even needing the backfiring help of Robin Harris. The only thing Robin was missing was some retort about how wintel is failing because OSX Lion "grew" faster in its first 2 weeks than Windows 7.... wink
    BucksterMcgee 19th Jan
    I'm for Yes
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