Does Apple's victory over Samsung signal an early demise for Android?

Facing the hard realities

My opponent makes some good points for why Android as mobile OS has staying power. It's too big to go away completely, and the fact that it is an Open Source project means that the code could continue to thrive even under alternative or even community stewardship (think Amazon or even Apache) for a long time to come.

But we may need to face some hard realities here. It is very likely that Apple will ultimately prevail against Samsung, and as a result of the damages awarded to Cupertino (which could triple) the Korean giant might have to make some hard choices.

And if Samsung withdraws from the market or has to affect drastic changes to its products to avoid infringement, so will HTC and any number of other weaker OEMs. And drastic changes do not necessarily bode well for Android's ecosystem.

As my opponent has said in his own writing, people like the fundamental aesthetics and basic functionality aspects of Apple's products, and that may be the only formula that the buying public is willing to accept. Unfortunately for Samsung and Google, those aspects are patented. By Apple.

As if customer preference towards Apple's patented design and functionality isn't reason enough to worry about Android's longevity, it is becoming increasingly likely that the Android device ecosystem of the future will be monolithic instead of being a heterogeneous one.

This would be not unlike what exists today in in Apple's supply chain driven world (a la Foxconn and Samsung) where Google controls who manufactures and supplies components for their devices.

Google's walled garden will have fewer guard towers and nicer guards, but it will still be a walled garden.

And while Android may not "die" in that sort of a world, it won't prosper either. In a choice between walled gardens of Apple-controlled, Amazon-controlled, Microsoft-controlled and Google-controlled products, the more powerful ecosystems will prevail.

Guess who has the strongest.

Android will thrive just fine

While my esteemed colleague Jason made a compelling case that the Samsung/Apple verdict would spell the end of Android, I'm afraid he's living in a dream world. The entire Android ecosystem, Google and its OEM partners, is the biggest the mobile space has ever seen.

While the clear case against Samsung is serious, Android is going to continue to thrive just fine. Google may have to adjust the features ruled to infringe on Apple's patents, but if so that's what it will do. There are billions and billions of dollars at stake for the entire system and they won't be thrown away by throwing in the towel.

The only event that would have a chance at shutting Android down is for Apple to successfully go against the core Android OS. Even that wouldn't necessarily spell total defeat for the platform. Google will adjust as companies must when faced with such adversity.