Jason Perlow
David Morgenstern
Opening Statements
$200 is the magic price point
Jason Perlow: In 2010, Apple set off the "Big Bang" for the tablet industry, by introducing the iPad. While the consumer electronics giant did not create the tablet, they created the entire model for which all tablets must have today: an App store as well as cloud-based services to back it up.
However, at an entry point of $500, the iPad (and other full size Android tablets that followed) cannot ever be the "People's Tablet" or the industry equivalent of the Volkswagen.
While cheaper than most desktops and laptops, iPad is still too expensive to stay the market leader. There is still a huge untapped market to fill for people that don't own a tablet at all and would prefer to spend considerably less money on a digital convergence device.
Indeed, $200 is the magic price point that will enable tens of millions of people to buy tablets and eventually propel us into the Post-PC era that Steve Jobs will establish as his true legacy.
It ain’t going to happen this time
David Morgenstern: Every couple of months there comes along a technology vendor with an announcement of a tablet that will knock the iPad off its dominating 75+ percent share of the market. It ain’t going to happen this time with Amazon's Kindle Fire and Barnes & Nobles' NOOKColor.
The problem for competitors is multifold -- even those as well-funded as Amazon and B&N, which have captive audiences in popular Internet storefronts. The Apple iOS/iPad combo is now a major computing platform for enterprise, business and consumer segments; the iPad is now integrated into many uses beyond simple content playback, including sci-tech and industrial segments. And its form factor is completely understandable by users. The iPad’s large user base make it attractive to developers, whether for consumer or business apps.
All these hurdles make it difficult for the competition, even devices with a smaller handprint. Perhaps other devices can find niches. Or maybe not.
The Rebuttal
Closing Statements
It's all about price and value.
Jason Perlow
I've already stated that I feel very strongly that Kindle Fire will succeed because of price and the value add that Amazon brings to the table with their content delivery capabilities and integrated app ecosystem.
My opponent, while making some valid arguments relies heavily on Apple's current strong market position and is under the questionable assumption that their research into form factors and Steve Jobs's vision ultimately will outlast Amazon's attempt at achieving tablet supremacy.
But even visionaries can sometimes be dead wrong. Thomas Edison, the man who Steve Jobs has been compared to numerous times, was stubbornly convinced beyond any doubt that Direct Current (DC) was the future in electrical power.
It only took an enterprising businessman named George Westinghouse and the brilliant mind of a young Nikola Tesla to prove him to be incorrect, and as a result the much more efficient Alternating Current (AC) became in use all over the world for power transmission instead.
Is Jeff Bezos destined to be the George Westinghouse of tablets and digital convergence? We'll soon find out.
Apple sells a 'real' tablet
David Morgenstern
Huge impact ahead
Jason Hiner
The iPad has resiliently fended off challenges from a steady stream of upstart tablets throughout 2011. However, it is about to get its stiffest challenge yet from the Kindle Fire. As Perlow noted, Amazon has nearly all the pieces in place to challenge Apple from an ecosystem perspective, and that's far more important than the tablet itself. While I still have my doubts about the general usefulness of a 7-inch tablet, the $199 price tag of the Kindle Fire will override those concerns for most people.
Barnes & Noble doesn't have the ecosystem and its tablet is $50 more expensive than the Kindle Fire, so I don't see it being as big of a threat. The best thing the Nook Tablet has going for it is a strong retail presence. I also don't see either the Kindle Fire or the Nook Tablet being as appealing to business professionals, who are some of the iPad's most steady buyers because they want to use the tablet for both work and leisure.
Still, I give Perlow the nod on this one. The Kindle Fire is about to have a huge impact on the tablet market.
More from "The Great Debate"
.....because "somebody" can get away with it!
"Major computing platform....?" lol
Having said that. Asus Tablet at 300 is still the best buy around.
Anyway, if I am ever going consider a tablet as a mobile productivity device (Apple need not apply), it's going to be 10" or larger. But Amazon is not pretending to be that sort of device; I'll look elsewhere when the time comes.
I generally follow this line with my computer purchases as well. If I buy "good enough" this year, I can upgrade next year to something more powerful than the current "best" for the same money, have two devices and still spent less than if I'd gotten the best available at the time. Next year Fire II (or whatever) will be out also for $200 and be better than the current iPad2, Galaxys or Xooms. Will it be better than next year's batches of Tablets? No. But I'll still come out ahead.
I have a Transformer so I don't need one but I know a few folks who would - like said, it is a moderatively inexpensive step.
The painful truth is, even Apple themselves are admitting that the iPad is not a replacement for the desktop/laptop. Otherwise they'd have abolished the Mac. Consumers are not fools either and would realize this too -- tablets and iPads are a bad device for content creation. Especially on a locked down device.
There are plenty of families who would want view the desktop/laptop as the primary device still. If there is disposable income, then go for the iPad or tablet. And how much are Windows PCs selling now? For many families, it's very hard to justify a $500 budget devoted to the iPad or tablet they can buy a device that provides more functionality (PC, Mac, etc.)
I don't think they ever said it would be. Can you point to some statement in the past where they explicitly said this?
Consumers are not fools either and would realize this too -- tablets and iPads are a bad device for content creation. Especially on a locked down device.
I would agree with that. However, not everybody creates content. I believe most people consume it the same way they would consume content on a desktop or PC.
For many families, it's very hard to justify a $500 budget devoted to the iPad or tablet they can buy a device that provides more functionality (PC, Mac, etc.)
Only if they want that kind of functionality, which it seems, many do not.
I don't see the active selling version, now or in the future dropping to the $300 - -$400 level....
Not Apples style.
Will it kill the iPad? No, but it'll put a big dent in it. What it will kill is all the Android iPad-wannabes like the Galaxy Tabs. This also pretty much means the end of Windows 8 as a tablet OS in the consumer market. It'll be hard enough for OEMsto compete with Amazon just on a hardware basis; doing it while paying for a Windows license will be impossible.
Just wait until Bring Your Device to Work Day, right after Christmas. The IT Department is going to be so happy about this.
Which raises the question: How much VOIP could a CloudVOIP VOIP if a CloudVOIP could VOIP VOIP? Because what we have here is guy who is thissssClose to being a handset maker who already has one of the largest Cloud infrastructures in the world. Were Amazon to buy Magic Jack, host it on Amazon EC2, and put it in next-gen 3G Kindles of various sorts (and maybe even just WiFi Kindles), they would be an even bigger pain than they're going to be with the Fire.
Most people don't care who owns what, they just want something that works. Skype does, Magic Jack, not so much.
If anybody at Apple believes anything like what you said, they are smoking rope.
That said, Tim Cook is if anything smart about what components are out there and what things cost to manufacture. Apple probably had a pretty good idea what the Worst Case Scenario would be for a well-made iPad competitor from a reputable firm. I doubt the $199 price knocked them back on their heels. The question is what they have up their sleeve to answer it. Between now and the end of the year: nothing. Amazon will be supply-limited on these things through the holidays, so there's no reason for Apple to leave money on the table. After that, we'll see.
when some product isn't copied. Yes it sounds odd, but it's true, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, and if you're not imitatating, they're insulted, so they need to find something, anything to "compare" with te iPad.
It's like fighting over which is the better vehicle - the F150 or the Camaro
If you really believe it is a reader you need to get some of Robert's rope.
Let's see, buy an iPad or buy a Fire and a smartphone......
Hmmm.......
If you are on a limited budget, the phone takes precedence so guess which route they will go...
Think working teens who's parents won't put out.
Chuckle
This is the same audience that made the iPod such a smash.....
NOW, I think the uninformed will just have to *realize* that cheap tablets exist, and are desirable... and, well, that probably won't happen overnight. The majority of the population doesn't pay attention to tech news, or any sources of wisdom. Right now, people just want what they want... and they sometimes even take enlightenment about what they should buy as simply bad news (like, "Awww, I wanted an iPad. Now I have to consider something else, and that's not what I wanted.")
Like a friend who wanted an iPad2
Went to the store and. Ame away wanting either a Galaxy Tab 10 or iPad2.
Then found out Best Buy has a discount center....
Tab being delivered tomorrow?
They need to learn it's out there...
and the Fire can do that.
Though the 7" factor is not viable for me, at least the ball is rolling.
Still don't see the benefit over a complete laptop? Here's a small example:
Use the monitor alone when you wanna have some iPad like fun or take notes with a software like Office OneNote. Attach the keyboard when you wanna do some research or type up an essay. That's more convenient than one of today's full blown Tablet PCs
Another picture: Transformer tablet with keyboard dock running Win8
It should be noted that Volkswagen was largely a fad - you don't see too many of them on the road anymore. They're pretty much the same as any other auto manufacturer now.
I just don't see the "Post PC" era, to be honest. People aren't throwing away their PCs just because they have a tablet. PCs are still better for long typing sessions. PCs are still better gaming machines. PCs still have fully featured applications. No price is going to get us into a "Post PC" era.
That being said, I like the idea of many form factors in the home, and I like the idea of these devices being ultra cheap, so that they can be common. I'd say $25 is actually a good price in the long term future.
I believe it has sold more than any other vehicle in history!
You must be talking about the recent revival, not the original vehicle.
I've been using what I guess is a magic nook color with CM7 for about a year. Must be magic, cause I use it for everything, no lag, creating spreadsheets and text documents (with a USB keyboard), reading emails, articles on a 7" screen. It hasn't even fragmentated once!
You know, all the stuff they say here is impossible or undesirable.
The Kindle fire is the peoples tablet, if you want to define tablets as souped-up e-readers.
"You must be pretty young to call the VW Beetle a fad."
Height of VW's popularity was what, '60s and '70s? I was born in 1980. Not terribly young, but young enough to have missed its peak and only hear about it later.
Yeah, they were probably sold more than anything else - but as I understand it, they were generally associated with the end of WWII and the "hippie" subculture at the time. Which eventually died down - I don't see any hippies today, except maybe some old timers.
So, yeah - the definition of a fad is basically that something sold very well at one time, but doesn't sell that well anymore. I would place the VW in that category - it had pretty much died out before I was born.
The iPad is definitely the better device and has a richer collection of apps , but I'd be a lot more likely to buy the new Nook Tablet than an iPad 2. The Nook does 90 percent of what I want at 50 percent of the price. It's a no-brainer.
The real immediate losers will be all those Android iPad-wannabes in the middle between the Kindle and iPad. Then it will be iPad taking a hit on its flank from the Kindle. Jason is right - Kindle is the Ford Focus getting you from A to B; iPad is the Mercedes series with recognizable class status. Let the games begin.
Not only are $200 tablets a game changer, but we will see much higher quality $200 tablets sooner than later.
Prices are droppng fast and quality is getting better, we have reached a tipping point, where price and product are now "good enough". And good enough wins the lion share of the market
Sells can be deceiving, but maybe in the end the people will start upgrading their cheap Tablets.
Check out the $299 HTC Flyer (my personal favorite). For that extra $50-100, you add 1 gb RAM, 16gb SSD, 32gb micro-SD capacity, front and rear cameras, microphone, GPS, Bluetooth 3, full Android market, unibody aluminum construction, AND I can read EVERY book format except iBook (Kindle, Nook, Kobo, epub you name it).
A subset of people have the same priorities as you, true. But most people operate under a concept we might call The "Good Enough" Principle. They ask themselves if they REALLY need to do everything (and the very act of asking that question usually means "no"), and then decide on a subset of features they can settle on, and a cost.
To a degree people may also buy because they feel something is better supported, or more "hip", or has better TV commercials, or a bunch of other reasons. The iPod dominating over other cheaper music players was partly because of that. But the other thing the iPod had was an ecosystem--an app and a backing store to download music (and later videos) conveniently. And that helped sell the device (and still does).
This is where the "Good Enough" of the Fire comes in. Its good the roots of a pretty powerful content ecosystem too. People who were happy before now just using an iPod, who hadn't leaped to the iPad, will notice this, because its backed by another company these people already trust. So its finally a competitor for Apple in that sense, even if its not really taking the same customers. It will take the low end, and Apple will continue with the high end. Whether you like it or not.
Although I will readily agree that the time of the iPad dominance isn't over, the iPad is not and never will be the people's tablet.
Wow
Been trying to use it full fledged for a while now.
Not working for me..
Wait! Maybe I'm using it wrong!
Maybe consumers are not as dumb as some may think and see value well past just the price sticker. Everyone's describing the Fire as an impulse buy for consumers at $199, which to me translates to: Pulling the wool over one's eye. How many times have we bought something on impulse only to be disappointed a short time later? If you are not already a Amazon Prime customer, then you will need to pay an additional $79 after a month of using the device, just to continue streaming videos and accessing other Prime features. Everything is streamed from the cloud so a broadband/wireless is pretty much required to have in those "rest of us" households.
Listen, I think the Kindle Fire will continue to sell well, when compared to other Android tablets. But lets not start comparing it to what Apple is doing with the iPad. The iPad is in a whole different league. Larger better screen, smooth UI, no choppiness Android is known for. Larger iTunes/iPod content (millions in love with iPod+iTunes). Larger more robust tablet specific apps and games (Apple leads in mobile games). Camera, GPS, Mic for apps like Skype and Facetime.
iPads are currently being used in vertical markets like hospitals, retail, restaurants, airlines (and airline cockpit), car dealers and manufacturers, hotels, government, and they're everywhere in the enterprise. The size and portability of the 10" iPad is more ideal for many of those industries compared to the smaller 7" form factor.
The iPad leads the way in accessibility for the blind and visually impaired. It continue to have an industry leading battery life. The largest selection of accessories and after-market products. The great convenient support at the many Apple stores across the world (Amazon is US only and have no brick n mortar presence of their own). Like I said Amazon will continue to sell, just not on the level of Apple.
Join the conversation!
Debate Event Reminders
The Great Debate Newsletter
With the Great Debate newsletter, you get a front-row seat to every argument until the final gavel falls.
Upcoming Debate
-
Can PC makers survive in a post PC world?
May 29, 2012 | 7:00 AM PDT
Add to Calendar




Which Type of Game?
RE: Great Debate: Is Amazon's Kindle Fire the People's Tablet?
RE: Great Debate: Is Amazon's Kindle Fire the People's Tablet?
It seems to me that Mr. Morgenstern is just another Apple bigot who seems to be unwilling to accept the fact that Amazon just might be very successful with this device. How does he know that Amazon will never get a significant number of Apps for this machine? Personally, I am agnostic to the debate over the two platforms, but only hope that Amazon will continually improve their tablet(s) over the coming years and continually increase their offerings of service content as they have been over the last several months.
I enjoy watching TV reruns, movies and other video content on my Fire. It is small enough that it is not burdensome and streaming works perfectly, so this has been a great purchase.
I am awaiting the arrival of Windows 8 to see what Microsoft does to this field as I believe they will have the iPad challenger because it will offer full-fledged Microsoft Office from the get-go. I do not understand why the phone market has not realized this along with several other reasons why Windows Phone 7.5 is superior to the iPhone.
RE: Great Debate: Is Amazon's Kindle Fire the People's Tablet?
RE: Great Debate: Is Amazon's Kindle Fire the People's Tablet?
A subset of people have the same priorities as you, true. But most people operate under a concept we might call The "Good Enough" Principle. They ask themselves if they REALLY need to do everything (and the very act of asking that question usually means "no"), and then decide on a subset of features they can settle on, and a cost.
To a degree people may also buy because they feel something is better supported, or more "hip", or has better TV commercials, or a bunch of other reasons. The iPod dominating over other cheaper music players was partly because of that. But the other thing the iPod had was an ecosystem--an app and a backing store to download music (and later videos) conveniently. And that helped sell the device (and still does).
This is where the "Good Enough" of the Fire comes in. Its good the roots of a pretty powerful content ecosystem too. People who were happy before now just using an iPod, who hadn't leaped to the iPad, will notice this, because its backed by another company these people already trust. So its finally a competitor for Apple in that sense, even if its not really taking the same customers. It will take the low end, and Apple will continue with the high end. Whether you like it or not.